BREAKING: THE FLY ENTERS TRADING SLUMP

I cowered in my bed until 11am because I was afflicted with severe seasonal allergies. I find that when I am like this, it’s best to pretend being dead aka sleeping — because when that happens I suffer less. When I was awoken by a dream of mine of car horns bellowing out — I immediately sneezed and saw I was down 1.57%.

I did a little of this, little of that — and closed down 89bps for the session — placing me DOWN 1.57% for April. I am officially in a trading slump. Oh no — how will I ever get my mojo back?

Maybe I should read some books on charts or perhaps SIFT THROUGH 5,000 of them tonight over a bottle of wine to find patterns that will make me money! Or, maybe I’ll listen to some experts on a podcast and then listen to some hedge fund professionals about their secrets to success!

The market did an interesting thing today and I feeeeeeel like I was wrong to be bearish early on. Rates collapsing means less pressure on banks means higher prices. With rates dropping, this is also bullish for secular stocks.

So I did two things.

1. Eliminated all hedges.
2. LEVERAGED THE FUCK UP ON SECULAR STOCKS and a few banks.

I closed at 140% leveraged long into the final day of this holiday festooned week.

The US 10yr is down another 6bps to 3.28%, just in time for peak housing season. I suppose the Fed is really finished with inflation, after having successfully defeated it. It would be a shame if anything should happen to that narrative, say run away oil prices or perhaps corn. What has the price of corn done recently?

DOWN 7% YTD

It seems from a layman’s point of view, the Fed has in fact defeated inflation and is now moving onto its next adventure: saving banks. This one is pretty straight forward. Lower rates and help banks with their MBS pricing mechanisms.

But markets are down nevertheless. You’d think with rates down and oil stable we’d get some upward surging stocks.

Since I’ve been out of commission all day afflicted with seasonal allergies, I have fallen subject to market forces. I had ample shorts at the open and covered them at the open and then rode my longs down just like most of you. This is wholly a stupid way to invest and if you’re not proactive intra-day, every single day, you’re missing out.

I am, once again, hedged — but to the tune of 25% on top of my 100% long only book — down 1.3% so far. Into the afternoon session, I am hoping we can rally.

I really tried out there today — but my best was simply not good enough. As a matter of fact, my best caused me to close AT THE FUCKING SESSION LOWS — rock bottom — off by 2%.

In the past, a 2% drubbing might cause some resentment, anger even, as I wanted to always make money. But I can’t be the only one making money out there and it’s charitable to give others a chance too. So I lost a little money — but I feel pretty damned good about it. I’m like the regular guys now, rookie trader attempting to work from home whilst the kids and the dogs prattle in the background and the wife is asking if I need another cup of Joe. The trades moved too fast for me and every time I bought — it dunked — and every time I sold — it ripped. I lost all of my hair today and now I have to head out there, like most of you, bald and stupid — knowing I had lost money in the market today.

Oh how will I pay my bills next month?

I exited today’s barn-burner of a session, where the NASDAQ tanked by 0.5%, 40% short via inverse ETFs and UVIX. I am positively in a NET SHORT position in spite of me proclaiming to be boolish just yesterday. It seems the stars aren’t quite aligned for Pax Americana at this juncture in time and a great gloom is cast upon her bosom.

This tape is deserving of disdain. If this tape was a person, I’d spit in its face and club it to death like a blue fish.

Today feels really bad — but let’s be an NPC and get all caught up in silly things like NEWS and world events. Let’s just enjoy the market in front of us and marvel out our own achievements — knowing that by the time we are dead the entire world could go to hell in a hand basket, our relatives suffering under the pangs of fire, and none of it would affect us in the least.

There are lots of things to discuss — but why bother discussing news? How about we discuss my peanut butter and jelly sandwich — or perhaps my YTD return? Aren’t they great? Aren’t you happy for ME?

The Father of Vaccines, Donald Trump, will be arraigned today — and I only mention it in passing because I caught a glimpse of recent events while cooking up some crack for tonight’s soiree. At this soiree, we will show a great porn on the big screen and have tables filled with pink cocaine and then we’ll head out into the woods and kill some animals with gunpowder. When hunting for flesh, it’s important to bring rope — because sometimes the animal is alive and it’d be a shame to waste expensive munitions on a wounded carcass. You can strangle the game with the rope and then take it back to your house to gut and clean.

I am still down 1.18% for the session, outright wondering when God is gonna pay attention to me.

Yesterday I felt my hubris was gonna lead to a swift kick to the scrotum. I enjoyed the melt up too much and really boasted about it. I even posted on the front page of ibc a picture of terrorist Jihad John with the title ‘BEARS GET THEIR HEADS CUT OFF CLEAN,’

What sort of monster does that?

Clearly, as you can see, I am demonstrating some contrition here — regret even. I closed out my leveraged longs and took a 20% TZA hedge as a penance, which also serves as protection against those seeking to harm me.

In a sense, TZA is like having my own Jihad John guarding my office door, eager to cleave off the heads of anyone attempting to see me without first having an appointment.

See there I go again.

At some point I’m gonna lose a lot of money, being this obnoxious. Maybe the new car got to my head, the big Subaru with all of the new gadgets. Perhaps I’m disconnected to the proles and need to visit a soup kitchen in order to drop slop onto the bowls of the underclass.

Either way, if I’m being honest, I really feel that I’ve been good enough to deserve more gains. I know I know, I’m already up 42% for the year and that’s plenty for 3 years worth ot returns. But I really sense that I’m a special person deserving of special gains. Maybe I should make 300% this year, amidst pomp and glory. Maybe I’ll walk around in Roman robes and sandals, tossing slop onto the bowls of the underclass from atop my big Subaru.

Bottom line: I appear to have hacked into the matrix and possess the secret keys to investment success.

I tried to warn you — but you chose to shit onto your portfolios and go bankrupt.

I moved higher again by 1.27% — pressing my YTD to 42%.

I’m actually leveraged at 130% of assets — because who can stop me? Will I draw down 2 or 3% tomorrow? Perhaps. But given my state of consciousness with this tape, I will make it all back and much much more.

Today’s rally was spearheaded by oil and AI stocks, an odd blend of narratives to weave through — but this is exactly what makes sense. The AI arms races is just beginning and there will be dozens of companies vying for a piece of the action.

Stocklabs has been using AI since inception, utilizing backtesting tools to predict possible outcomes. This is the whole premise behind the overbought/oversold signals.

Nevertheless, I wish I had something exciting to share — other than I UPGRADED to a new car this weekend. I figured with all of the new money I’m making, I at least deserved the BIG Subaru and not just the mid-size. Now I’m a SubaGURU lesbian aristocrat and those who glance at my visage show me immediate respect out of fear of losing my favour.

I have most unpleasant mood for my bearish readers out there: markets are not likely to crash this spring. Don’t take my word for it — go ahead and look at the data. We, on occasion, get some summer doldrums, and most certainly CRASH THROUGH THE FUCKING FLOORBOARDS during Fall. But in the spring, a time for renewal, we are likely to plod along and drift a little higher or a little lower.

Stocklabs seasonality for QQQ 2000-date

I know it sucks and we might be better off with stocks much lower and PAX AMERICANA as we know it in shambles. Alas, the tranny parade continues and the degeneracy of our people commences amidst pomp and circumstance and a general dumbing down by way or vice. We can get angry about it in the same way BASED ROMANS were upset in 400 AD. The simple fact of the matter is, as a species the dominant rule, one way or another, and those fuckers who dominant can lead people towards the path of grace or ruin. We are, without question, heading for a HISTORICAL COLLAPSE OF EPIC PROPORTIONS and I’m afraid the only way out is through the fires.

That said, I once again am up 90bps, fully invested with mild hedges. I also, for the first time ever, added $BTC as a permanent 5% holding and will add to it monthly to ensure it maintains 5%.

What do I think will happen next?

I just fucking said it: drift a little higher or a little lower.

PREPARE YOURSELVES for melancholy times amidst gin and tonics, orange twist — small splash of bitters and a gentle breeze in a sun washed environ — overseeing blossoming flowers and bright green lawns. Your portfolios will not be threatened until June.

It was working out pretty good for olde Joe. He had his trannies, money schemes, his wars, and he even had a pretty benign recession due to moderate job losses and cheap energy. But over the weekend the House of Saud threw a fork at Biden’s head and now it’s sticking, as they and Russia cut production by over a million barrels per day to support prices.

If you’re OPEC +, this move is justified, since America has flooded the market with over 200 million barrels of its SPR to rig prices down. The deal was, America would do this to fuck Russia — but then later on refill it at the start of 2023. But it seems Biden and Co got greedy and reneged on their side of the deal ( empire of lies ) so now everyone else is taking matters into their own hands.

BUT DON’T COUNT OUT SPITEFUL JOE AND CO JUST YET!

Remember the lessons of natural gas and how they somehow completely destroyed that price, amidst all of the fanfare of “Europe freezing” due to the war.

I don’t believe there are shortages of anything, anywhere.

As is customary, I liquidated my stocks in both trading and quant, since it’s a new month and will reallocate after 12pm.

My opinion on stocks remain: underweight tech, healthcare, overweight basic materials — hedge when stocks go down.

The NASDAQ rose 9% but the Russell 2000 fell by 5.4%. In Stocklabs, all stocks fell by 4.5% during March — but that weakness was masked by the very good performance of large capped stocks, seeing the SPY rise by 3%.

Basically, if you caught wind of the divergence early you banked during March. If you held onto losers, hoping for them to come back — you ended the month sharply lower. These sort of divergences usually iron themselves out — but it is RARE to see the IWM down so much at the same time the QQQ rose.

Aside from COVID era 2020, there isn’t another occasion in recent history when the IWM fell by more than 5%, the closest being 2001 at -4.8%.

To make sense of all this would require a time machine. It’s important to note several known things.

Inflation is abating

Rates have moderated

The Banking crisis has not ended

The Fed isn’t helping

The war continues to rage

Under all of these conditions, expect a lot of quick moves, as we dance between falling knives from the sky. I do not condone being in cash, as it causes traders to become lazy and stupid. Be 100% invested at all times in a portfolio of fundamentally and technically strong stocks — which means they must have free cash flow.  Use your margin to hedge or buy more to boost returns. If markets look scary, hedge more. When the fear abates, close out your shorts.

If you bothered to give a shit about your money you’d see this is easy to do.

You should be envious — but I hope that you’re not. Any person who goes to the internet in the manner that I do and boast and holler and yell at people — bragging in such a manner must cause some degree of irritation amongst the prole class of person.

Hey — LOOK AT ME peacocking up 40.44% for the year.

Oooh, that’s impressive — isn’t it? I must be super smart. What did those gains do for me, you might ponder? Absolutely nothing.

Is iBankCoin more traveled than last year?

A little.

How about Stocklabs? Are you enjoying a booming business due to your absolute brilliance in the markets?

Positively No.

I think my blog ad rates are up to around $45 per blog now — so that’s impressive. The only issue there, as of my last daily update, my ad vendor decided not to pay me this month. Perhaps his money was held up at SVB. I should be empathetic.

I do not expect to change the lives of many — because men do what men want. If, by chance, I help a few out along the way — then it’s all worthwhile. This isn’t exactly a charity, as I am afforded some luxuries out of reach for most. But for some odd reason, I keep thinking that I deserve more. This is a feeling I cannot shake and I always need to remember that, in the end, people get what they deserve.

Into Q2, I am unhedged and I even own some FRC — since I am up so much and can afford a brief drawdown. All in all, I cannot recall a better winning streak and feel for the market than now. I’ve had bigger percentage gains in runaway tapes. But everyone was making money then. This +40.44% is impressive, not because it’s a lot of money — but because I did it when mostly everyone else suffered. For me, that’s what it’s all about.

INDEUD.