The US 10yr is down another 6bps to 3.28%, just in time for peak housing season. I suppose the Fed is really finished with inflation, after having successfully defeated it. It would be a shame if anything should happen to that narrative, say run away oil prices or perhaps corn. What has the price of corn done recently?
DOWN 7% YTD
It seems from a layman’s point of view, the Fed has in fact defeated inflation and is now moving onto its next adventure: saving banks. This one is pretty straight forward. Lower rates and help banks with their MBS pricing mechanisms.
But markets are down nevertheless. You’d think with rates down and oil stable we’d get some upward surging stocks.
Since I’ve been out of commission all day afflicted with seasonal allergies, I have fallen subject to market forces. I had ample shorts at the open and covered them at the open and then rode my longs down just like most of you. This is wholly a stupid way to invest and if you’re not proactive intra-day, every single day, you’re missing out.
I am, once again, hedged — but to the tune of 25% on top of my 100% long only book — down 1.3% so far. Into the afternoon session, I am hoping we can rally.
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Fly – avoid the seed oils – soybean/canola/sunflower – it is in everything bread granola cereal frozen foods geez o
clean the blood – buy when you see the blood.
Ciao
Wife buys local Vermont hippie organic honey for her allergies. Honey from bees that feed on plant pollen that is local to one’s area helps with allergies …or so they say.
I work for a REIT and I can tell you that interest rates at regional banks have gone up despite treasuries going down. This could be due to two factors: 1) not locking against long term treasuries so as to not get burned by prices moving against them and 2) uncertainty regarding future/upcoming regulation. Bank spreads between 10 year treasuries and commercial loan rates went from 150 bps to 250 bps almost overnight.
Secondarily the CMBS market has been broken for three or four months. The last man standing is Fannie / Freddie which, as you might suspect, is sheer fuckery to deal with the federal government…