RERAX, I AM A DOCTOR

1,034 views

I added to YY, super-sizing my position in the process.

I also added to ICPT.

WINSHIP IS ON THE MENU

831 views

I bought a little more HABT today, just a nibble. I’ve also taken liberties to start a new position in Chinese internet company YY. A new era has begun in this stocked market. All of the naysayers have been ushered into the city square for expeditious peni removal. The market, in all of its vainglorious swagger, continues to torture its participants, both long and short.

Oil seems to have a small bid here, but many oil stocks are taking the day off, in favor of tech stocks. If you knew what was good for you, you’d buy some.

Shares of FEYE are edging higher this morning, a stock that served as a personal torture chamber for me earlier this year. But it is written that “The Fly” shall seek out and destroy all of his enemies before the year is out. Ergo, I am long FEYE and it is now my largest position.

THAT WAS A KILL

3,781 views

The misery is palpable. 200 NASDAQS in so many days. You thought the market was going to simply drift away. But, in fact, it was revving up to run over your fat, fucking, faces (extra Stuntman Mike).

I made wholesale changes to the portfolio today–all for the better. My sales were executed in a timely order, at least intra-day. And my purchases are all up 2%+ from my basis.

The Gods have smited you and tossed you back in the trash heap of man. Your puts and shorts have been annihilated and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just ran, mind you, 700 motherfucking points over the past two days.

The Santa Claus rally is here. You’ve been discredited. The world is back on its axis.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,663 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,579 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

The Santa Claus Rally is Now

1,719 views

There are so many people to punish today, where to begin? All of you greedy types, buying UVXY into the teeth of despair, shall be dealt with today–justly. Your lands will be seized, wives confiscated, and estate’s liquidated.

Between yesterday and today, we are looking at a 500 point rally. If you missed the run, it’s probably too late to get in for the large percentage gains. However, seeing people like Cramer on the teevee, there is a wall of worry still. There are people out there who just don’t believe in Santa Claus. Those people, mind you, shall be dealt with–justly–too.

By the looks of the open, I stand to take back some of the money that was stolen from me. But the hole is too dip to fill from now until year end. I will likely gain 20% of what I lost in recent weeks today.

PTRY got bought out. I was eye balling them because I know gas stations do exceptionally well when prices decline. I was looking to buy PTRY at $19 and missed the whole run. Other gas station/grocery plays to consider are CST, CASY, IMKTA and of course COST.

Top picks: SLCA, HABT, ECR, FMSA

Mathematical Precision or Buckshot?

1,675 views

As you know by now, The PPT accurately called the bottom yesterday, flagging an oversold signal that led to a monumental 100 NASDAQS surge. Today’s rally changed the tone of the tape, in that the short sellers felt vulnerable to downside pin action, despite all of the seemingly negative news.

I’m gonna keep this 100 percent numerical, leaving out opinions and emotions.

Here is the raw data of recent PPT oversold signals and how the market responded.

Yesterday’s OS

OS1

This OS came after a series of oversold signal, most of which proved to be early. The market jerked back and forth, but ultimately hit new highs.
OS2

This one nailed the bottom, to the day.

OS3

How’d it do on other occasions, you ponder?
OS4

This.

OS6

And this.
os7

Also this.
os9

Getting boring.
os10

And again.
os11

A sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP)
os12

So why haven’t I strictly adhered to the teachings of The PPT algorithms? It’s the mystery of my life. It confounds me on a daily basis. I am not hedging myself here. The data is the data is the data. PPT wins. It gives people an edge by analyzing over 4,000 stocks, ranking them by fundamentals and technicals, taking into account price movements in commodities, treasuries and currencies. It parses out traditional correlations and makes predictions as to when the rubber band will snap back. It’s not your standard, run of the mill, mean reversion tool. It is robust, accurate, and invaluable.

It is my greatest achievement and my biggest detriment wrapped up in one. It’s so hard to remove oneself from the art of stock picking. It’s an addiction that addles me. It calls my name at night. It speaks to me in the day. I know my life would be far better off making macro-calls, using this and ETFs to accomplish my goals. But it’s hard, real hard, to just give up the pipe. I need one more hit. One more parade down the canyon of heroes, then I am done.

Until the next one comes and then I am here, writing a blog at 1:38 am about what could’ve been and what should’ve been, instead of what happened.

Easy There, Lads

3,062 views

As much as I’d like to pop champagne corks into your faces and celebrate the new bull market, one designed to offer daily 15% gains in oil stocks, we are more likely to fall into a sewer pipe tomorrow. All of this pomp and circumstance is part of the circus act. Janet Yellen is tone deaf, as well as 99% of the people on the tv.

Oil reversed and gave up big gains, yet all of these ham and eggers keep talking about a strong economic environment.

Remember when this pole strokers said China would be insulated from the credit crisis? Yeah, those same people think we will avoid the Grimm Reaper, as he makes his rounds around the world–plunging everything and everyone into despair.

There cannot be a stronger than expected US economy when you have 6 million jobs at risk, in an industry that is circling the toilet bowl. The Fed made the same mistake in 2006-2007, tightening into a damaged economy.

For now, I remain long and will try to regain some of my lost swagger with this lift. I deployed some capital today and have prayed and brayed to baby Jesus for mountainous gains.

Oh, and yes, The PPT won again. It flagged oversold yesterday. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

No Fade Today

1,326 views

You’re all too jaded. You forget that bears get fucked too, especially in bear markets. Remember when the market went up a thousand points in the depths of the 2009 crisis? Of course you don’t–because you’re all punk kids, or if you were a bear, you died that day.

Breadth is at a solid 82%. It is very unlikely that we will sell off. Santa Yellen did what she was ordered to do. Now she’s at her local diner eating a club sandwich.

If there is one thing you should take from this blog, it is this: in the end, everyone gets fucked–even bears in bear markets.

HUGELY BULLISH ON THIS

3,296 views

I don’t care what happens today. I can become homeless and live inside of a garbage can, but will still be content because of the availability of Cuban cigars. Yes, it’s true, after a gagillion years we are normalizing relations with Cuba.

Let the Italian mafia live long, prosper, and rebuild that idiot island of doctors and auto mechanics into the Mecca of the caribbean.

In other news, get long cigar shoppes.

NOTE: I added to SLCA.

RERAX, I AM A DOCTOR

1,034 views

I added to YY, super-sizing my position in the process.

I also added to ICPT.

WINSHIP IS ON THE MENU

831 views

I bought a little more HABT today, just a nibble. I’ve also taken liberties to start a new position in Chinese internet company YY. A new era has begun in this stocked market. All of the naysayers have been ushered into the city square for expeditious peni removal. The market, in all of its vainglorious swagger, continues to torture its participants, both long and short.

Oil seems to have a small bid here, but many oil stocks are taking the day off, in favor of tech stocks. If you knew what was good for you, you’d buy some.

Shares of FEYE are edging higher this morning, a stock that served as a personal torture chamber for me earlier this year. But it is written that “The Fly” shall seek out and destroy all of his enemies before the year is out. Ergo, I am long FEYE and it is now my largest position.

THAT WAS A KILL

3,781 views

The misery is palpable. 200 NASDAQS in so many days. You thought the market was going to simply drift away. But, in fact, it was revving up to run over your fat, fucking, faces (extra Stuntman Mike).

I made wholesale changes to the portfolio today–all for the better. My sales were executed in a timely order, at least intra-day. And my purchases are all up 2%+ from my basis.

The Gods have smited you and tossed you back in the trash heap of man. Your puts and shorts have been annihilated and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just ran, mind you, 700 motherfucking points over the past two days.

The Santa Claus rally is here. You’ve been discredited. The world is back on its axis.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,663 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,579 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

The Santa Claus Rally is Now

1,719 views

There are so many people to punish today, where to begin? All of you greedy types, buying UVXY into the teeth of despair, shall be dealt with today–justly. Your lands will be seized, wives confiscated, and estate’s liquidated.

Between yesterday and today, we are looking at a 500 point rally. If you missed the run, it’s probably too late to get in for the large percentage gains. However, seeing people like Cramer on the teevee, there is a wall of worry still. There are people out there who just don’t believe in Santa Claus. Those people, mind you, shall be dealt with–justly–too.

By the looks of the open, I stand to take back some of the money that was stolen from me. But the hole is too dip to fill from now until year end. I will likely gain 20% of what I lost in recent weeks today.

PTRY got bought out. I was eye balling them because I know gas stations do exceptionally well when prices decline. I was looking to buy PTRY at $19 and missed the whole run. Other gas station/grocery plays to consider are CST, CASY, IMKTA and of course COST.

Top picks: SLCA, HABT, ECR, FMSA

Mathematical Precision or Buckshot?

1,675 views

As you know by now, The PPT accurately called the bottom yesterday, flagging an oversold signal that led to a monumental 100 NASDAQS surge. Today’s rally changed the tone of the tape, in that the short sellers felt vulnerable to downside pin action, despite all of the seemingly negative news.

I’m gonna keep this 100 percent numerical, leaving out opinions and emotions.

Here is the raw data of recent PPT oversold signals and how the market responded.

Yesterday’s OS

OS1

This OS came after a series of oversold signal, most of which proved to be early. The market jerked back and forth, but ultimately hit new highs.
OS2

This one nailed the bottom, to the day.

OS3

How’d it do on other occasions, you ponder?
OS4

This.

OS6

And this.
os7

Also this.
os9

Getting boring.
os10

And again.
os11

A sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP)
os12

So why haven’t I strictly adhered to the teachings of The PPT algorithms? It’s the mystery of my life. It confounds me on a daily basis. I am not hedging myself here. The data is the data is the data. PPT wins. It gives people an edge by analyzing over 4,000 stocks, ranking them by fundamentals and technicals, taking into account price movements in commodities, treasuries and currencies. It parses out traditional correlations and makes predictions as to when the rubber band will snap back. It’s not your standard, run of the mill, mean reversion tool. It is robust, accurate, and invaluable.

It is my greatest achievement and my biggest detriment wrapped up in one. It’s so hard to remove oneself from the art of stock picking. It’s an addiction that addles me. It calls my name at night. It speaks to me in the day. I know my life would be far better off making macro-calls, using this and ETFs to accomplish my goals. But it’s hard, real hard, to just give up the pipe. I need one more hit. One more parade down the canyon of heroes, then I am done.

Until the next one comes and then I am here, writing a blog at 1:38 am about what could’ve been and what should’ve been, instead of what happened.

Easy There, Lads

3,062 views

As much as I’d like to pop champagne corks into your faces and celebrate the new bull market, one designed to offer daily 15% gains in oil stocks, we are more likely to fall into a sewer pipe tomorrow. All of this pomp and circumstance is part of the circus act. Janet Yellen is tone deaf, as well as 99% of the people on the tv.

Oil reversed and gave up big gains, yet all of these ham and eggers keep talking about a strong economic environment.

Remember when this pole strokers said China would be insulated from the credit crisis? Yeah, those same people think we will avoid the Grimm Reaper, as he makes his rounds around the world–plunging everything and everyone into despair.

There cannot be a stronger than expected US economy when you have 6 million jobs at risk, in an industry that is circling the toilet bowl. The Fed made the same mistake in 2006-2007, tightening into a damaged economy.

For now, I remain long and will try to regain some of my lost swagger with this lift. I deployed some capital today and have prayed and brayed to baby Jesus for mountainous gains.

Oh, and yes, The PPT won again. It flagged oversold yesterday. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

No Fade Today

1,326 views

You’re all too jaded. You forget that bears get fucked too, especially in bear markets. Remember when the market went up a thousand points in the depths of the 2009 crisis? Of course you don’t–because you’re all punk kids, or if you were a bear, you died that day.

Breadth is at a solid 82%. It is very unlikely that we will sell off. Santa Yellen did what she was ordered to do. Now she’s at her local diner eating a club sandwich.

If there is one thing you should take from this blog, it is this: in the end, everyone gets fucked–even bears in bear markets.

HUGELY BULLISH ON THIS

3,296 views

I don’t care what happens today. I can become homeless and live inside of a garbage can, but will still be content because of the availability of Cuban cigars. Yes, it’s true, after a gagillion years we are normalizing relations with Cuba.

Let the Italian mafia live long, prosper, and rebuild that idiot island of doctors and auto mechanics into the Mecca of the caribbean.

In other news, get long cigar shoppes.

NOTE: I added to SLCA.

Previous Posts by Dr. Fly