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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Off to Argue with an Auto-Mechanic

My vacation saga isn’t over. Now I get to drive on over to my local mechanic to publicly shame him for doing a bad job on my brakes, demand recompense, and offer him a little insight into the soul of a man without a heart.

All that aside, markets are looking ‘dreamy’ and my stocks are higher by 1.54% today. That’s not a pure gain, since 30% is in TLT/GLD fag boxes and 20% in cash. But the money that I do have invested is performing admirably in this euphoric market.

You know, seeing the market do this on a daily basis almost makes me long for the days when I managed money. The amount of money I’d be making right now would be criminal — but the downside is always around the bend. I’ve shaven off at least 100 years from my impervious life form — drolling about Wall Street in search of fortune. Believe me, it’s not a career for old men.

To make it on Wall Street, you need to be young, ignorant, and filled with alpha. Beta males get BTFO, or sent to the bond desk, where they could partake in mathematical arbitrage and pretend they actually do something for a living. If you want to make it on your own, why don’t you try picking up the phone, like a fucking man, and convince a total stranger to send you $5 million dollars — without ever meeting you?

If you can do that, then you’re worthy of my time. If not, fuck off and go blow a giraffe.

 

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Copper is Overbought; Stop Buying $FCX Now

Enough is enough. You really need to stop buying copper stocks, especially FCX. I don’t understand your fascination with China. It isn’t on the precipice of grandeur.

Shares of FCX are higher by 16% overt the past month. This is the absolute top.

You’ve been warned.

My time machine says sell copper now.

SCCO, TGB and BHP are equally reprehensible — but FCX is more equal than others. You cannot continue buying into the copper sector and expect to be comfortable when the world burns.

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$CMG Target Lowered to $250 at Deutsche Bank: Who Still Eats Here?

Identify yourselves.

Admittedly, my son still eats there, despite my ominous warnings.

The story of Chipotle should be studied in every business school for centuries, depicting the rise and fall of a brand. Quite literally, they’ve gone from hero to zero in two years, all the while Bill ‘Montauk’ Ackman remained steadfast inside the investor ranks. You cannot make up a better tragedy.

Deutsche Bank reduced numbers and their price target for the faux Mexican food purveyor.

Via Benzinga:

Looking forward, the analyst has little confidence in Chipotle to demonstrate strength in same-store sales. Accordingly, Levy’s 2017 earnings per share estimate is lowered from $7.70 per share to $6.80 per share and 2018’s outlook was also lowered from $10.60 per share to $9.90 per share.

Chipotle’s stock has traded at an average of around 35x its forward earnings, but given the uncertainty over the brand moving forward, a 25x multiple on 2018’s earnings is more appropriate.

“If fundamentals improve, the multiple could rebound,” the report also noted. However, if there is a continued deterioration in fundamentals, despite easier compares creating a backdrop where the company could post above average growth, we believe the more muted multiple is appropriate. Should the hyper-growth not materialize (or rate of growth remain more modest), we believe there could be some additional risk to the multiple.”

Amongst all larger cap restaurant stocks, CMG is the only one with negative returns over the past two years — down more than 57%.

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Sen. Graham Says Those Who Oppose Trump’s Surge Will Own ‘Next 9/11’

Why was this man so happy last night? Anytime war or potential for war is announced, Sen. Graham jumps on the teevee to ejaculate his exuberance for the President’s decision(s). On the contrary, whenever the President isn’t towing the ‘establishment’ line, he’s very very stern and critical.

Am I missing something here or is this man insane?

In summary, if you vote against sending more Americans into a meat grinder of nothingness in Afghanistan, you will own the next 9/11.

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Trump Announced Afghanistan Surge, All of a Sudden Tax Plan Back on Track; Stocks Explode Higher

Admittedly, it’s very hard to anticipate the actions of the Mad King. Yesterday it looked like Bellevue was in his future, today it looks like a giant tax reform bill might be forthcoming.

Via Politico

President Donald Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders have made significant strides in shaping a tax overhaul, moving far beyond the six-paragraph framework pushed out in July that stoked fears about their ability to deliver on one of the GOP’s top priorities.

There is broad consensus, according to five sources familiar with the behind-the-scenes talks, on some of the best ways to pay for cutting both the individual and corporate tax rates.

Couple this with the fact that a surge was ordered by the President yesterday and we have ourselves a nice celebratory rally underway.

Amusingly, today’s winners are highlighted in the apparel and basic resource sectors, two of the most reprehensible sectors living today — which means this is nothing more than an oversold bounce.

Notably, FAANG stocks are higher by 1.06% and THAT FAG PUB by 0.92%.

At 75% positive breadth, it’s fair to say today’s rally is somewhat healthy, but not exuberant, if I might be sold bold to say so.

As a side note, the single best investment over the past 8 years, inverse volatility, had flagged oversold in Exodus the past two days and has subsequently responded in kind with a feverish rally to the upside today. I told you I owned a time machine.

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Morning Joe Panel Melts Down After July Fundraiser Data Shows the RNC is Crushing the DNC

The Morning Joe staff have been energetically suggesting the Trump presidency would mark an end to the Republican Party as we know it.

Just before the recent elections, which demonstrated widespread support for the GOP, former republican, Joe Scarborough predicted widespread losses for the party of Lincoln.

After the exact opposite occurred, Joe took to the teevee in shock — hemming and hawing about how America could still vote for the party of Lincoln, in spite of Trump.

Today, July fundraising data showed the RNC absolutely crushed the beleaguered DNC, prompting Joe to find religion as to why this is happening. He concluded that ‘identity politics’ was hurting the DNC, which drew the ire of Share Blue, the DNC backed propaganda arm responsible for spamming conservative websites with pro DNC messages.

Watch the Morning Joe panel lament over the utter and complete failure of the DNC to capitalize on Trump’s White House discord — pointing to the fact that recent polling shows republican candidates pulling ahead of democrats, out-raising them by 3 to 1.

Joe just doesn’t understand how the DNC keeps losing.

“Maybe they (DNC) can retake the house in 2018 with a completely inept message.”

And here was Joe’s twitter screed, lecturing the democrats on how to beat his former party.

Explain how this is happening, democrats?

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Goldman’s CEO Declares War on Trump, Via Twitter

This wasn’t uncommon during the Obama era, where CEOs like Steve Wynn would regularly defecate all over his Presidency. Back then the country was scared that Obama was a secret Muslim agent, sent from Kenya in tow with a ‘fake as fuck’ birth certificate — hellbent on destroying American. Today, we merely have to deal with a mentally addled orange gorilla who wants nuclear war.

Goldman’s Blankfein, boldly, takes a passive-agressive step towards full revolt at House Goldman.

Take notice.

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OLDEST COLUMBUS MONUMENT IN AMERICA SMASHED WITH SLEDGEHAMMER IN BALTIMORE

And there is nothing you’re gonna do about it. The right wingers are ineffectual cowards, complaining by way of keyboard — permitting scum to traverse the country ripping down historical markers.

Everyone knows Columbus was a psychotic. The things he did in Hispaniola were reprehensible and earned him some gaol time. However, scum bag or not, he was instrumental in permitting Europeans conquer the Americas — cleaning the continent of inferior savage animals — paving the way for grande capitalism and MUH democracy through military means.

Now that it’s open season for racist as fuck Confederate statues, a manlet with a sledgehammer mimicked the Taliban in destroying a perfectly fine 225 year old obelisk dedicated to Columbus.

“Christopher Columbus symbolizes the initial invasion of European capitalism into the Western Hemisphere. Columbus initiated a centuries-old wave of terrorism, murder, genocide, rape, slavery, ecological degradation and capitalist exploitation of labor in the Americas. That Columbian wave of destruction continues on the backs of Indigenous, African-American and brown people.

“Racist monuments to slave owners and murderers have always bothered me. Baltimore’s poverty is concentrated in African-American households, and these statues are just an extra slap in the face. They were built in the 20th century in response to a movement for African Americans’ human dignity. What kind of a culture goes to such lengths to build such hate-filled monuments? What kind of a culture clings to those monuments in 2017?”

Here is the footage.

Lads in Detroit protested a Columbus statue this weekend, claiming “He’s a central central narrative to white nationalism.”

Interestingly, none of this spontaneous outrage occurred under Obama — because the left is in charge of the streets and have been organizing to foment discord for decades. Prove me wrong.

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Chinese Burrito Lottery Stocks Break Out While America Was Looking at the Eclipse

I feel this will go down as one of the pivotal days in Chinese history — the day the burritos ran for honor and glory whilst all of America was busy looking at the total eclipse, inflicting permanent retina damage to their eyes.

In a seemingly do nothing session, Chinese stocks, aggressively, moved higher — with both alacrity and purpose.

Shares of WUBA are leading the way, thanks to better than expected earnings.

Other stocks higher by more than 3% for the day include: JRJC, CCIH, ATV, KONE, SGOC, OSN, CCRC, NFEC, CNIT, SPU, JOBS, HPJ, CHU, GSH, CTRP, BSPM, CHNR, HTHT, TEDU, CEO, YY, BYDDF and CADC.

It’s a rather extensive list. I know. As for the reason for the sudden breakout, one could only speculate. One thing is for certain, shares of BABA, now a $400 billion monster, is paving the way for the rest of these scoundrels — readily and consistently outperforming in a market that ceases to go down.

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The Dollar Index Breaks Down to Key Support Level

Get your crayons out and draw a straight line across the middle of this chart. Notice the present level had represented support on 3 prior occasions?

Quick question: If the dollar hadn’t been this weak during 2017, where would oil be trading today? There’ s a theory out there that the weak dollar is the glue holding things together. Thank God for gigantic terrorist attacks in Europe, deterring me from wanting to travel to Europe. I will never, ever, visit Europe with my family. It has become an unpredictable cesspool of totalitarianism, deserving of a widespread popular revolt.

Markets have rebounded from this morning’s drop. But don’t get excited, since the utes are leading the way.

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