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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Bulls Pull Off Another Win — Dow Sinks 350 On Catastrophic Jobs Report

This is the type of tape built to burn everyone. Bulls are long because the Fed, resumption of growth post virus, and because they’re fucking morons. Bears will end up getting ensnared and bankrupted because they’ll overstay their welcome and lose the trade. There are 1,000 reasons to be bearish here — only 1 reason to be long.

REMINDER: The Fed lost 2008-2009, because stocks dropped dead -75% before recovering. It took years to recover and many never had the chance because they got wiped clean.

I will word my next thoughts carefully and without hyperbole.

There is significant credit issues persisting now and central banks are throwing everything they have at it. On the surface, this is incredibly bullish for asset prices — but the X factor is COVID-19. How long will it last? No one believes stats out of China — just 82k infected whilst America is running hot towards 300k. Please.

I don’t need to remind you but everything is closed. Everything is shut in. The psychological affects of this event will persist for years, or until there is a vaccine.

I am bullish on consumer staples and long stocks like K, CPB, GIS, CLX, and HAIN — all higher today — because your supermarket is the only place for discretionary spending now. As unemployment checks roll in and government stimulus and bailouts, spending at your local grocer will only exacerbate. Stocks like KMB and CLX command higher multiples now because growth is about to hockey stick.

Aside from that, I am short banks, commercial Re, semis, and small caps. Fuck the market.

Today’s closed out trades.

(FRO -27%)
JNUG +1.5%
NVAX +5.5% (day trade)
W +2.9% (day trade)
BAND +1.35% (day trade)

NOTE: WTI ran up 13% today, after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER MADE AN INCREDULOUS APPEARANCE ON CNBC, talking shit.

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LOSSES MOUNT MID-SESSION, NOT EVEN THE TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER CAN HELP US

It goes without saying, you DESERVE a claw-hammer to the fucking brain for buying the market on a -701k jobs print. Listen to me closely, more than you’ve ever listened before.

WE ARE GOING TO PUNCH THRU THE LOWS, and much much more. Life as you know it already changed, you just don’t know it because you’re living thru it and in a fantasy world filled with whimsical Fed-Bucks.

Markets are lower by 200 now, not much of anything to be honest. But I am looking at other things, more specific with debt and how the CMBS market is shredded to bits and pieces. I realize the Fed will end up owning it all, including junk and stocks. But for the sake of doing what is right and just, I am NET SHORT here and positioned headlong into an array of old man stocks — consumer staples — based off the idea the plague will never end and this is the end game, the egregious ending of mankind at the hands of Bat-Soup.

In the event that doesn’t pan out, I’m nimble and will quickly reverse course. But for now, I see nothing but dark shadows and traders getting HOT ROLLED AND STEELED under the weight of their mindless hubris.

The Texas Railroad Commissioner could not be reached for comment.

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BOOLISH: March Jobs Report Posts -701k; New Estimates Predict 10-15 Million Job Losses

We have the fucking Texas Railroad Commissioner on the line right now with Saudi Arabia cutting deals. What the fuck do we need jobs for? Everyone is obsessed with the employment outlook for the country. Meanwhile, on Twitter, the fucking Railroad Commissioner for the state of Texas is telling a different story, a tale of MASSIVE supply cuts of 10 million barrels per day. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Yeah, I know what the haters will say.

“Fly what the fuck does it matter, not a single plane in the sky — NO ONE is using oil.”

Whatever. After the virus passes and the economy is RIPPING higher again, oil is gonna go up so much your eyes will bleed. I’m talking $5,000 per barrel. How about that — fucked face? A flight to Paris will cost 1 million dollars — as planes cater to the super high end wealthy only. The bums will have to stay home and sustain of their government dole of $1,200 per mo.

“My sense is that when we get April data a month from now, we’ll see that the economy lost somewhere between 10 and 15 million jobs,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Anlaytics, said earlier this week. “That would be consistent with the initial claims for unemployment insurance data that we’re getting.”

Dow futs are -90, but WTI is higher by 11%, Brent by 16% — thanks to the commissioner. The Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.4%; but they’re all pussies. America will show the world, once again, how to do this shit. We don’t need jobs to see stocks higher. We have UNLIMITED MONEY hacks at the Fed, men on the phone in Texas, and a bunch of unemployed losers now surfing for porn on the internet, as God intended.

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MARKET RAMPS FURIOUSLY AFTER TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER TWEETS ABOUT OIL SUPPLY CUTS

What a fucking day.

Trump pumped oil markets with a tweet, which was later denied by the Saudis. Then markets faded like a motherfucker, losing a 350 point rally, only to rally up again after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER offered this fucking tweet.

On that news, markets lifted off and oil ran up 10% from the afternoon lull. You have to be fucking kidding me. I’ve seen it all.

Today’s results.

AMPE +9%
APRN +10.6%
SOXS +8.7%
FAZ +4.6%
LAKE +2%
(NBY -13.8%)
(BIMI -4.7%)
(AHPI -7.4%)
DYNT – wash
MEDS – wash
PUMP +16%
NUGT +12.5%
CLR +1.5%
(PTON -7.9%)
(APA -7.8%)
(NOV -6%)

Into the bell, I went short real estate, oil, and small caps. I am long gold and consumer staples, positioning for a Friday collapse. Anything can happen and the news is now important to juice markets. I sense the oil markets are now the most important for the market, so look for real chicanery to come out of OPEC and Trump the next few days.

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MARKETS COLLAPSE AFTER TRUMP’S OIL PUMP DEFLATED BY SAUDS

Trump said this.

And then the Saudis said this.

And the markets did this.

Trump lied, traders died.

I responded by buying the oil pump, but quickly sold it. This is what I’ve closed out thus far.

AMPE +9%
APRN +10.6%
SOXS +8.7%
FAZ +4.6%
LAKE +2%
(NBY -13.8%)
(BIMI -4.7%)
(AHPI -7.4%)
DYNT – wash
MEDS – wash
PUMP +16%
NUGT +12.5%
CLR +1.5%
(PTON -7.9%)
(APA -7.8%)
(NOV -6%)

I am now leaning towards positioning SHORT, especially REITs and I like oil SHORT here — because OPEC sucks and Trump is a fucking pumper.

UPDATE:

What the fuck?

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HOPE SPRINGS! Trump Says Russians, Saudis to Cut Production by 10 Million Barrels Per Day

What a fucking hectic morning. I thought I’d awaken to a bleak landscape strewn with waste and chards of metal bustling through the easterly winds, instead I got an end to the pandemic and massive short squeeze in crude — propelled by incredulous statements out of Trump, alluding to the Saudis and Russians cutting production by as much as 10 million barrels per day.

The result was sharply higher crude, and even higher oil stocks. I missed this trade by a day, having sold out of my MUR and HAL just the other day. I went into today HEAVILY long virus plays, which all looked great yesterday, but absolutely dreadful today.

Luckily, I covered my shorts early and also had some NUGT. This is what I booked today, thus far.

AMPE +9%
APRN +10.6%
SOXS +8.7%
FAZ +4.6%
LAKE +2%
(NBY -13.8%)
(BIMI -4.7%)
(AHPI -7.4%)
DYNT – wash
MEDS – wash

I also chased oil stocks here, admittedly. You don’t get to see a 40% move in crude everyday. Right now WTI is OFF THE HIGHS, but still +22%. Buying after 20% moves is dangerous, but I sense that this could be a key moment for the space. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe not. We’ll see.

I’m getting FLOGGED on FRO — because a supply cut means less tanker volume. I’m not too sure about that, but again — we will see.

At the end of the day, in an attempt to bring normalcy to my holdings, I’ve been buying consumer staples that pay dividends and trying to trade around it. I could end up looking like an absolute clown today, or a champion. I am experienced and humble enough to tell you this is not investing, more akin to gambling.

Nevertheless, in the big scope of things, higher crude is good for every facet of the economy now. It helps the junk bond market, the banks, employments, and offers a semblance of inflation — which is why gold is doing so well.

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JOBLESS CLAIMS SOAR TO 6.6 MILLION; ALL HOPE IS LOST

Markets had an idea about rallying, but now have collapsed again and firmly in the red. For the week, 6.6 million jobs were lost, bringing the sum total to over 10 million in a fortnight. The idea that we can get this economy up and running again quickly will soon become a phantom, as permanent damage is afflicted to both small and large businesses.

Absent a vaccine to assuage concerns over a Coronavirus reoccurrence, people will be extremely reticent to PACK TIGHTLY into luxury cruise liners, shopping malls, concerts, and bars EVER AGAIN.

Futures were +350 and now we’re down 200.

I made two morning sales, APRN for +10.6% and AMPE for +9%.

UPDATE: In response to market firming, I sold FAZ for +4.6% and SOXS for +8.7%.

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WENT 3X INVERSE PORTNOY; I’M MADE FROM CHAMPION STOCK

I started off the day completely bogged down in longs. Smartly, I started to scale out with losses. The market was down 600, so I doubled down on SOXL, which was down 10%, and sold it into a rip for a 1.7% loss. As I continued to dump stocks and take my lumps, I grabbed my balls and positioned into this bitch sideways and short — long FAZ, SOXS.

Markets ended down 1,000, making my moves more than golden, but what legends are made from.

As markets started to dump out virus plays started to lift in earnest. I booked a 9.9% intra-day rip in APT and noticed, via my newswire, governments started to make masks compulsory. This got me thinking to throw in all available funds into makers of N-95 masks and I’m not talking MMM.

I got in and then saw those fuckers sprint the fuck higher. At the end of the day, the harmony of my trading ended up to be 3x inverse Portnoy — who got bogged the fuck out bagholding 40,000 shares of BA today for a cool -$450k.

This is a brutal business, but only the lion shall prevail. Davey Zebra should stick to betting on foolsball games and leave the arena of champions to men of a higher quality.

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POOF! YOUR BULLSHIT OVERSOLD BOUNCE IS OVER

Dave Portnoy was a hedge fund manager yesterday, after making $90k on a $3m account. Today he tested his hubris and margined his account to $5.5m and bought 40,000 BA at $139. His livestream has since went off and now his down $300k from his basis.

Any questions?

The rally you wanted to have is now over. We’re looking down the barrel of national and global lockdown thru summer, 250k deaths in America, 50% reduction in GDP, 30%+ unemployment. It is fucking over.

The Fed cannot make the virus go away. We had a nice rally, but now it’s over.

I am now directionally defensive and short, via FAZ, SOXS and have virus stocks working higher. I took some losses today and I didn’t feel good taking them. But I can’t turn back the clock and undo a mistake. What I can do is set a course that is likely to succeed now in this environ.

You will get nothing. No bounces. No carbs. Nothing but wooden spoons and gruel and outsized losses, as fuckers capsize into the black sea and drown.

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DANGER — COMPLETE BREAKDOWN NEARS

All of the hallmarks of a stark turn lower are present now, with exception to upside movement in semis. I took the opportune to unload many of my mistakes this morning, in addition to averaging down in SOXL — which ended up providing me with an honorable exit of -1.7%.

My day, thus far.

IFRX +33%
(MAR -10.2%)
(DK -3.55%)
(MUR -14.2%)
(HAL -5.8%)
(FANG -6.7%)
(HFC -9.7%)
(MNK -9%)
(SOXL -1.7%) x2
(JACK -3.8%)

BOGGED for sure, but I have a few irons in the fire now working. One thing is for certain, the volatility affords one the opportunity to claw back from the dead and profit.

Two things, rancid action in banks. They are shorts.

I like the action in gold. They are longs.

Old man stocks like SJM provide safety and comfort, but this market is wholly unforgiving and should be treaded carefully. I know your bias is wrong, because it is higher. We are going to retest the lows.

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