Tuesday, May 24, 2016
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Dr. Fly

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Iron Ore Falls to March Lows

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It truly is collapsing, but I didn’t want to give any of you heart attacks before tomorrow’s trade. It might prevent some of you from liquidating your portfolios and causing an even greater decline.

Iron ore represents China in all of its grave depravity. Now we have the price dropping to the lowest point since March the 3rd, at the same time copper keeps dropping too. There is a discernible cause for panic amongst China bulls. By extension, all of you should panic too.

“There’s little doubt that the iron ore price will sink below $50 a ton as seaborne supply is rising while the Chinese steel mills will reduce purchases,” Ren Jiaojiao, an analyst at Maike Futures Co., said by phone from Xi’an on Tuesday. Inventories at China’s ports — which topped 100 million tons last week — may increase further, according to Ren.

“The run-up in April was fueled partly by purchases from steel mills ramping up production to capture the exceptionally-high profit margin,” said Ren. But that margin is now “quickly contracting, so mills are adjusting to the new situation by depleting their raw material inventories first. They will also adopt a hand-to-mouth strategy in purchases later because of anticipation of higher supply at the ports.”

Ore with 62 percent content sank 6.7 percent to $51.22 a dry metric ton on Monday, the lowest since March 3, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. After surging 23 percent last month as China’s ill-fated frenzy gathered pace, the price has tumbled by the same amount so far in May. Futures in Dalian fell as much as 2.6 percent on Tuesday, while the SGX AsiaClear contract was little changed.

Citigroup Inc. said in a report on Tuesday it remained bearish on iron ore, forecasting persistent oversupply on rising output from the top miners as well as Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project. At the same time, weaker steel prices will encourage mills to restrain output and keep ore holdings low, it said.

“Oversupply should extend into the rest of 2016,” Citigroup said, predicting that prices will average $47 a ton this year. “Weaker steel prices should incentivize mills to decrease utilization rates and maintain low iron ore inventories, putting pressures on Chinese iron ore imports.

Talking about iron ore and how doom is beckoning gets boring sfter a while. Not before long, the cat calls shrieking from this bloggery must be backed up with actual calamity. Don’t worry lads, recession is an assured outcome. Give it a chance. You might like it.

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Danger: The Yield Curve is Flattening

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When I took my 25% position in TLT, back in late December, I said I’d hold it until the yield curve inverted. The last time the yield curve inverted was back in 2007, right before the world almost ended. For those young to the world of investing, the yield curve is the spread between the 2 and 10 year duration treasuries. When the yields of the 2s surpass the 10s, doom is right around the bend.

The inversion of the yield curve has accurately predicted every recession over the past 50 years. Therefore, and it goes without saying, it’s notable when the curve begins to flatten.

As of now, the spread is at its narrowest since 2007, just 93bps.

When the Fed hikes rates, I predict the long duration yields will fall, and the shorter term will rise. This trend will continue until people finally figure out the Fed has purposely wrecked the economy, at which point we will already be in a recession. The yield curve will be inverted and “The Fly” will win again, via his large TLT position.

This is prophecy at its highest and finest form. Failure to acknowledge future facts is no different from being in possession of a time machine and not winning the lottery at some point in your travels.

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Woman Goes Ape on Twitter After Finding Chicken Foot in Chipotle Burrito Bowl

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This is the sort of press Chipotle could’ve swept under the rug, pre ecoli era. And this is exactly why CMG is uninvestable, since every food quality story has the potential to cause a 30% drawdown in sales.

People are truly delusional for owning CMG, thinking the worst is behind the company.

Earlier today some random woman with a few followers posted a picture on Twitter of her all but devoured chicken burrito bowl. At the bottom of her bowl was a treat of sorts. If you look at the picture you can see a nice chicken foot, which could be used in a sundry of devil worshipping, occult, black magic spells.

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“Gabe” from the CMG Twitter customer service department is on the case.

 

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Shares have rebounded lately, on the belief that the company doesn’t serve poison, or chicken feet at the bottom of their burrito bowls.

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Chesapeake Screws Shareholders Again, Swaps More Debt for Equity

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In yet another dilutive debt/equity swap, the beleaguered oil and gas giant is running out of creative ways to service its debt. They’ve issued 10% of its equity over the past month, in an effort to get a better handle on their 9 billion debt hold.

This, of course, comes at a great cost. Shares of CHK are down 44% over the past month.

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The company, which has more than $9 billion in debt, said on Monday it issued or agreed to issue about 37.1 million shares between May 16 and May 23 in exchange for senior notes worth about $166 million. The notes are due in 2017, 2019, 2037 and 2038.

Chesapeake swapped $153 million of debt for about 4 percent of its equity earlier this month.

This is the main reason why I’d avoid playing the sector on the long side. Desperate people do desperate things.

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Fed’s Harker Foresees Two to Three Rate Hikes in 2016, Cites Inflation Risk as Main Concern

President Pat Harker looks out over Mentor's circle as part of his "Day in the Life" article in the Messenger.

Fed’s Harker is out talking greasy tonight, talking up rate hikes and inflation, pointing to a robust American economy, in spite of the inconvenient facts on the ground that suggests otherwise. Moreover, he believes the Fed will hike 2 to 3 more times in 2016 (that’s in the next 6 month’s for you 2nd grade math gurus out there).

The craziness of Harker’s comments is that he said the Fed might have to use ‘aggressive policy actions’ to fend off runaway inflation, which has consistently remained under 2%, for years.

He said once crude stabilized and ‘reversed’, inflation would surely hit 2% and more, further validating his stance that the Fed should hike rates now, in order to get ahead of the curve. This, of course, countermands reality, in that crude has ‘stabilized’ and is higher by more than 50% from the February lows–yet inflation is non-existent.

I suppose Harker believes crude will trade to $100 again? Speculating on the price of crude has always been something the Fed eschewed, due to the gambling nature of it all.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said that he could see two to three rate hikes in 2016 and that prices will return towards the central bank’s inflation target over the medium term.

“Although I cannot give you a definitive path for how policy will evolve, I can easily see the possibility of two or three rate hikes over the remainder of the year,” Harker said, according to remarks prepared for delivery in Philadelphia on Monday.

Harker emphasized that the U.S. has continued to grow in spite of global headwinds and he called the labor market “extraordinarily dynamic.” His remarks follow several other speeches by Fed official emphasizing the possibility of an interest rate increase at their June 14-15 policy meeting in Washington.

“If the economy follows the path I expect it to follow, monetary policy will be overly accommodative by historical standards,” Harker said. “That will set in motion the possibility of another risk, which is accelerating inflation and the need for aggressive policy actions.”

On inflation, which has consistently undershot the Fed’s 2 percent goal, Harker argued that the “math is in our favor” as energy prices rebound and dollar strength abates.

“I believe that, once energy prices stabilize and start reversing, inflation will return to our 2 percent target by sometime next year,” he said.

All of what he said was complete and utter nonsense. I truly doubt he believed any of it. Moreover, the market doesn’t believe it, as the market is only forecasting a 30% chance the Fed will move in June and a 46% chance in July. Clearly, three rate hikes over the next 6 months isn’t priced in.

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Gartman: Breaking $50 Crude Will Be Nearly Impossible

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CNBC falsely advertised this segment, declaring that The Commodity King saw $60 as a possibility in the not-so-distant future. Yeah, it’s a possibility like the Jim Cramer winning an Emmy for his Madness of Money show.

What the Commodity King, D. Gartman, really said was there’s no fucking way in red hell crude is going to break $50. Reason being? Any ‘good fracker’ is making tonnes of fucking money at $50 WTI. He didn’t actually mention who these ‘good frackers’ were, however, as all of the pesky facts sought out in quarterly earnings paint an entirely different picture.

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Who are these, so called, ‘good frackers’?

At any rate, Gartman speaks, the global crude oil consortium of peddlers and harem purveyors listens.

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Markets Close At Session Lows; Behold the Treachery That is to Come

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I’ve been out all day, traveling, partaking in Amish ritual dances and making sacrifices to the Gods, all in an effort to perfect my stock market picking prowess. In the meantime, markets closed at the lows of the session, delightfully. I understand that 95% of you have a long bias, in one way or another. Deep down, I want all of you to live long and to prosper and to forgo heinous drawdowns. On the exterior, however, I’d like nothing more than to kill all of you, under clouds of black smoke and shards of metal, capsizing your infantile 4 figure brokerage accounts and removing you from the field of play.

While some of you resort to parlour tricks and half-cocked measures to hoodwink people into believing the utter nonsense that you drivel out from your mouths, “The Fly” captivates millions by mesmerizing them with his Space Alien Magician (SAM) ways and boldness to declare the markets to be a dead place of sorts to park money, along with various other good traits that he possesses.

I have a few more errands to run and this will be a busy week for me. I appreciate all of you who signed up to Option Addict’s boot camp. He works very hard to provide the lot of you with an edge and has been very strong in his opinions that we’re on the cusp of breaking out to the upside. I am all ears.

Meanwhile, all of you may celebrate this week, as if it were a national holiday. It’s the week that I will celebrate my birth, 40 years ago. That’s for my legal records. As most of you know, Le Fly is immortal and is about 1,000 years strong.

NOTE: Since the age limit on iBankCoin is 42 1/2, I will be retiring from the site in exactly 2 1/2 years, as I am legally required to do so.

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Banks Are Financing the Dumbest Oil Trade Ever Made

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Remember those stories about people storing crude on tankers in order to wait out the price slump? Well, those people are still doing that shit, in spite of the fact that storage costs have risen to the point that storing the crude, essentially, locks in a nice fat loss for hoarders.

Unlike previous oil storage trades, however, this one is unusual in that current oil prices and storage costs ought to make it unprofitable. Morgan Stanley estimates that the one-month Brent storage arbitrage currently produces a loss of $0.48 per barrel, while its six-month equivalent loses $6.11 per barrel.

That suggests “no incentive to store oil on ships,” the analysts write. “Yet, banks are seeing a sharp uptick in interest to finance storage charters. This storage is not happening for profit. Rather, the market is looking for places to store oil. To profit, traders need to hope for oil prices to rise enough to pay for the new debt incurred for this storage.”

The prospect of debt-fueled oil storage trades may raise concern should crude prices fail to rise enough to offset costs. Moreover, the ‘Singapore supply glut’ means the recent price rally may prove fragile.

“The increase in floating oil comes despite disruptions in the Atlantic Basin and an out-of-the-money floating storage arb[itrage], suggesting markets are not as healthy as sentiment suggests,” the Morgan Stanley analysts write. “It also highlights the speculative nature of much of the oil bounce this year.”

This is gambling, 100%, and the banks are financing it. Right now the 6mo loss is around $6; but that could widen, considerably, should crude follow seasonal patterns and start to drop again.

If prices rise, perhaps the Pirates in the Straights of Malacca can see a profit. However, should the price of crude start to flag and the waiver, we may all be entreated to a most furious crude sell off, ignited by tankers racing to book heinous losses.

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Fed’s Williams Eyeballing BREXIT Vote; Happy With Market Decline Last Week Following Fed’s Minutes

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Hey, he said this shit, not me.

Fed’s Williams says Brexit a factor in June hike and Fed could always hold off until July; Happy with market reaction to minutes; does not expect to hike in back-to-back meetings, preferring a gradual approach

If Williams is happy with the markets response post minutes, seeing that the market was down and all, one can only presume him to be a macabre of sorts, clamoring for market drops, no?

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What a diabolical man, yes?

One thing of note: the June FOMC meeting is on June the 15th. The BREXIT vote will occur on June the 23rd. Therefore, and this goes without saying, the whole notion of the Fed waiting to see what the Brits might do is irrelevant for the all important June meeting. We may very well find ourselves hiking into a fucking buzz saw by that time.

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BAYER BIDS $62 BILLION, ALL CASH, FOR MONSANTO

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Fuck the farmer, basically. Corporate culture is taking over the farms, in a big way. The lads over at the Bayer aspirin company want all of you bird seed mother llamas to fill out your TPS reports, in short order.

They’re bidding $62 billion for MON, or $122 per share, whether MON likes it or not.

Bayer has big plans for Monsanto, using their GMO technology for a sundry of pharmaceutical based products, eventually paving the way towards chimeras becoming an ordinary thing around town. Base ingredients injected into foam will transform ordinary humans into half beast animals, running about the town square eating cobbs of corn. You fuckers truly have no idea how deep this rabbit hole goes. House DuPont is now teamed up with Dow Chemical and Bayer with Monsanto.

Horribly beautiful things are in store for mankind. Sit back and enjoy the show.

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