Thursday, June 30, 2016
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Dr. Fly

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Capital Flight: China’s Yuan Closing Out the Worst Quarter on Record


China’s yuan dropped 2.9% for the quarter, the worst sell off on record–dating back to when they unified the market rates in 1994.  The deviant currency of China, most readily used to manipulate advantages over trading competitors, is at 5 year lows.

China is dealing with all sorts of capital flight problems, which has forced them to impose a sundry of regulations designed to dissuade and/or stop citizens from moving cash out of the country.

Related: Goldman warned that metal investors are shaking in their boots about a potential drop in the exchange rate.

“We see a rising risk that capital outflows could pick up again causing negative headlines and adding to the fragility of current market sentiment,” said Allan von Mehren, Copenhagan-based chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S. “We expect the depreciation pressure on the Chinese currency to continue over the coming years.”

Nothing to see here. Go buy a Chicom.

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HSBC: Germany Has the Most to Lose From BREXIT


Alas, the truth is starting to creep out from underneath Merkel’s stairs. HSBC economist, Fabio Balboni, describes how Germany is completely in the streets once BREXIT takes hold. They have a $50 billion trade surplus with the UK and their designs for a 4th reich is in jeopardy, as the contagion for freedom looms.

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‘New Glasses’ Gartman vs Tim ‘The Alien’ Seymour


Dennis Gartman, sporting some flashy new glasses and especially bearish on stocks, takes on the well known space alien, Tim Seymour, in a battle of the titans. Gartman lays waste to Tim, and his infantile, alien rationale for stocks, suggesting he go read some stats and bear witness to the evidence to the contrary.

Chalk up another win for the Lord of the South, the Commodity King.

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At Summit with Obama and Trudeau, Mexican Leader Compares Trump to Hitler


This is rich coming from the leader of a failed state whose citizens are routinely raped and tortured in order to be coerced into pleading guilty for crimes they did not commit.

I am sure people of Jewish descent, and family members of loved ones lost in world war 2 will not take offense to these infantile statements, comparing a presumptive nominee for President of the United States to a devil who was responsible for the deaths of 100 million people.

Speaking at a press conference alongside U.S. President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau, who have gathered in Ottawa for the “Three Amigos” summit, Pena Nieto warned of the dangers of populism in a globalized world.

“Hitler, Mussolini, we all know the result,” he said when asked to explain the comparison. “It was only a call for reflection and for recognition, so that we bear in mind what we have achieved and the great deal still to achieve.”

Then again, maybe he’s offering a compliment to Trump by calling him Hitler, considering that his people never had the courage to stand up to him during world war 2, offering just 300 servicemen to the pacific theater and tallying a grande total of 6 casualties during the great world war 2?

Build the wall.

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Federal Reserve Flags Deutsche Bank, Santander and Morgan Stanley in Stress Test Results

deutsche bank teaser

Out of 33 banks, just three were fucking retarded, according to the capital creators at the Fed. Both DB and SAN were viewed in a disagreeable manner, deplorable even, while Morgan Stanley was asked to resubmit a new plan.

Maybe the Fed doesn’t like Deutsche Bank’s capital structure of $24 billion in market cap and a $1.8 trillion balance sheet? What do you think?

The Federal Reserve objects to capital distribution plans proposed at the U.S. units of Deutsche Bank and Santander, meaning that the banks cannot issue dividends or make share buybacks until they establish a new plan, the central bank said Wednesday.

Further, central bank regulators are requiring Morgan Stanley to submit a new capital plan by the end of the fourth quarter of 2016, but said they did not object to the bank’s capital plan.

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday announcement of the results of its Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review marks the second and final portion of the annual, two-part stress tests aimed at gauging Wall Street’s ability to adequately respond to an economic crisis.

There were only three objections out of 33 institutions tested.

The Fed’s objections to Santander Holdings USA and Deutsche Bank Trust, the U.S. units of each bank, mark the second consecutive year regulators flagged both banks. Santander’s U.S. unit also saw objections from the Fed in its 2014 stress test, however. A senior Fed official said Wednesday that “serious deficiencies remain in a number of areas” for each of the firms’ U.S. units.

Typically, these stress test results are quickly looked at by traders, then tossed into the circular file. However, considering the recent stresses that Deutsche Bank has been enduring, it’s somewhat possible this might be a market moving event.

On this news, Bank of America has announced a $5 billion buyback and a 50% increase in their dividend.

UPDATE: re Morgan Stanley

The Board of Governors did not object to Morgan Stanley’s capital plan. However, Morgan Stanley exhibited material weaknesses in its capital planning process. These weaknesses warrant further near-term attention but do not undermine the quantitative results of the stress tests for the firm. They include shortcomings in the firm’s scenario design practices, which do not adequately reflect risks and vulnerabilities specific to the firm, weaknesses in some aspects of the firm’s modeling practices, and weaknesses in governance and controls around both scenario design and modeling practices. Accordingly, as a condition of not objecting to Morgan Stanley’s capital plan, the Board of Governors is requiring Morgan Stanley to address these weaknesses and resubmit its capital plan by December 29, 2016. If Morgan Stanley does not satisfactorily address the identified weaknesses in its capital planning process by that time, the Board of Governors would expect to object to the resubmitted capital plan and may restrict Morgan Stanley’s capital distributions.

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Thinly Traded $CRCM Gets Investment and New Board Member from Google


This is a stock that has fallen from $30 down to $8, so this is very interesting. Google announced they are making a $46.35 million investment in CRCM, representing about 15% of the company. Additionally, Laela Sturdy, a partner at Google Capital, will be joining their board, in order to help them get their heads out of their asses.

In making the announcement, Sheila Lirio Marcelo, Founder, Chairwoman and CEO of, said, “We are thrilled to announce this investment and to partner with Google Capital during our next phase of growth. We remain focused on delivering on our vision of building a global marketplace for care to help solve the needs of millions of families and caregivers. Laela will be a great addition to our Board, bringing significant operating and investing experience including nearly a decade at Google/Alphabet. We look forward to bringing that expertise to bear as we innovate our service offerings for our members and corporate clients, while continuing to add value for our shareholders.”

Ms. Sturdy said, “ is in a unique position to help millions of working families in search of high quality care for their loved ones, and to help caregivers find meaningful work. Google has been a customer of’s enterprise services for employees since 2011, so I’ve been able to see first-hand how’s innovative mobile platform and enterprise solution – Care@Work – helps families search for caregivers and get much needed back-up care services. Google Capital is excited to support in building on their market leadership by giving them access to our biggest asset—some of the world’s leading experts in a range of topics at Google and Alphabet – as they continue to deliver delightful and seamless solutions to consumers and enterprises.”

Under the terms of the agreement, has issued a newly authorized series of convertible preferred stock to Google Capital, at an initial conversion price of $10.50 per share, representing a 21% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average trading price ended June 27, 2016 of $8.68. Dividends on the preferred stock accrue at 5.5% annually during the first seven years from issuance and are payable in kind. Additional information regarding the terms of the preferred stock, including the conversion and redemption rights of both Google Capital and the Company, may be found in the Form 8-K that will be filed today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

This stock should race higher tomorrow.

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Investors Abandon the Ark to Go Swimming: Treasuries Sink, Stocks Surge


All of the giraffe and antelope jumped ship late in the session, at the first signs of calmer climes. Treasuries had hit new highs, earlier in the day, only to give way to sellers–as equity markets rampaged higher.

Look at that volume.


This is common practice of both giraffe and antelope, as they are an impatient species, always lured to shore by low hanging fruit and luscious trees. Odds are, treasuries will sell off a bit more into ex-dividend. I will get paid my monthly 26 cent dividend. Markets will return to a state of flummox. The giraffe and the antelope will race back to the ark again. Only this time, I will instruct my oarsmen to strike them about the head when they attempt to reboard.

I took a new position today, which was highlighted in Exodus. It is a quick trade with a global perspective in mind. I am very happy you were able to enjoy respite. But it won’t last–that much I can assure you.

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The Charmed Life of Frederick Wilson: $TWLO Surges 18% On No News


Just one week removed from bringing public this overpriced, future disaster, dubbed TWLO, Frederick Wilson is cleaning house–as the shares continue to press higher.


Let us all remember the previous victims of F. Wilson’s IPO extravaganzas and suggest that this new Vonage might not be worth 15x sales. In other words, to value TWLO at $2.5 billion or 15x sales, while VG is trading at around 1.3x sales, one has to be cognizant of the chance that ticker symbol TWLO ‘could’ tumble 90% from current levels–down to 4 bucks–to find equilibrium with its peer group.

For the year, TWLO is expected to bleed out another $35 million or so.

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Business as usual gents. The House of Saud is very much delighted by the recent upturn in crude oil, as they shop around Aramco for an initial public offering to all of the world’s best investment banks.

Crude oil snapped back like a catapult, thrusting prices higher by 4%. As WTI nears $50, traders are getting increasingly greedy.

Some of the favorite stocks to play are in the fracking space–because no one is doing it any longer– and hope springs eternal. Shares of HCLP, EMES, SLCA and FMSA are ejaculating higher.

There is such joy, such pleasure, in the oil and gas space, one would hardly believe this was a sector rife with debilitating debt loads, burdened by a commodity in decline, and strangled by psychotic domestic regulatory bodies just a few months ago.

Sadly, over the past week, oil stocks are down 5.5% on the median basis–despite the commodity roaring back. No worries. With today’s 3% gain and the specter of the whole BREXIT vote being something of a bluff, not to be taken seriously, I am nearly certain traders will give it the old college try tomorrow and the days to come, to press energy stocks to new highs.

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Kerry Says BREXIT May Not Happen, Suggests It Could Be ‘Walked Back’

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry testifies at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee while on Capitol Hill in Washington, April 8, 2014. Kerry squarely blamed Russian agents on Tuesday for separatist unrest in eastern Ukraine, saying Moscow could be trying to lay the groundwork for military action like in Crimea.   REUTERS/Larry Downing   (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS)

In a meeting of ideas today, U.S. secretary of state said he doubted the UK would listen to the will of the people and said ‘there were a number of ways it could be walked back’ from BREXIT.

Kerry said Cameron was very reluctant to invoke article 50, which would trigger the farewell and goodbyes to the EU.

He concluded, glibly, “this is a very complicated divorce.”

According to AFP, Mr Kerry said that he thought Mr Cameron “feels powerless — and I think this is a fair conclusion –- to go out and start negotiating a thing that he doesn’t believe in, and he has no idea how he would do it.”

“And by the way nor do most of the people who voted to do it,” Mr Kerry reportedly said, possibly referring to “Leave” campaigners such as former London mayor Boris Johnson.

The full court press, by the globalist, totalitarian, oligarchs is on– to subvert the democratic process in the UK, using ‘the law’ as a method to accomplish their means.

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