This is the type of tape built to burn everyone. Bulls are long because the Fed, resumption of growth post virus, and because they’re fucking morons. Bears will end up getting ensnared and bankrupted because they’ll overstay their welcome and lose the trade. There are 1,000 reasons to be bearish here — only 1 reason to be long.
REMINDER: The Fed lost 2008-2009, because stocks dropped dead -75% before recovering. It took years to recover and many never had the chance because they got wiped clean.
I will word my next thoughts carefully and without hyperbole.
There is significant credit issues persisting now and central banks are throwing everything they have at it. On the surface, this is incredibly bullish for asset prices — but the X factor is COVID-19. How long will it last? No one believes stats out of China — just 82k infected whilst America is running hot towards 300k. Please.
I don’t need to remind you but everything is closed. Everything is shut in. The psychological affects of this event will persist for years, or until there is a vaccine.
I am bullish on consumer staples and long stocks like K, CPB, GIS, CLX, and HAIN — all higher today — because your supermarket is the only place for discretionary spending now. As unemployment checks roll in and government stimulus and bailouts, spending at your local grocer will only exacerbate. Stocks like KMB and CLX command higher multiples now because growth is about to hockey stick.
Aside from that, I am short banks, commercial Re, semis, and small caps. Fuck the market.
Today’s closed out trades.
NVAX +5.5% (day trade)
W +2.9% (day trade)
BAND +1.35% (day trade)
NOTE: WTI ran up 13% today, after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER MADE AN INCREDULOUS APPEARANCE ON CNBC, talking shit.Comments »