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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

If You Truly Love Dad, You’ll Get This For Him This Father’s Day

Last year I published two books about my days swashbuckling through the dot com era, going from rags to riches and right back to rags. They are books of the most distinguished varietal and I only tell you this because many of you have no idea I’d written them. As you know, I am a very humble man and shy at the specter of self-promotion. But these two books were written with grit, lots of mud and charred pieces of bacon, and hard whiskey. They are books befit for men, and also women who fancy themselves as men.

“The Fly” does not discriminate.

Do yourselves a favor now and buy the printed versions of these fine pieces of historical literature, before I raise the prices to $1,000 per copy and make them scarce. They’re also donned with RARE ART, which might become splendidly valuable in the future.

BUY LITERATURE HERE.

Off to smoke a cigar, and act like a man.

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Happy Father’s Day, Gents!

Well I suppose that’s somewhat insensitive to the women who’ve recently become men and now enjoy their beards and the many ardours of being a Father. Gone are the days of doing dishes and making Tommy a peanut buttered and jellied sandwich with a tall glass of milk after school. Now, since you’re a Dad, you have to clean the garage, sit on the couch and watch football, and drink beers and smoke cigars with your friends.

This shit here is hard work, so get used to it.

We have a lot of fun on these internets and I’m sure the vast majority of your wives hate Le Fly with extreme passion, for forcing you into a lifetime of wanton gambling and rap music degeneracy. However that may be true, always know that I mean well and only want you to become half alcoholic degenerates. The other half should be upstanding gentlemen of the first order, catering the whims of your loved ones, only smoking cigars and pipes in the long hours of the evening whence the children are fast asleep.

Enjoy the day gents and new gents alike. Eat hearty and plenty of bacon and hot black coffee, for tomorrow there’s work to do here — trading to and fro in the most ridiculous stocks known to mankind.

On a side note, my fucking coyote only wants to go out to eat worms off the pavement now. She has zero interest in the grass and couldn’t care less about defecating anymore — just worms — 24/7. She’s become a fucking retarded dog, seemingly overnight.

Tips hat,

Fly

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A Quick Back of the Envelope Way to Determine if an IPO is Overvalued

Lots of chicanery took place in the IPO markets the past decade. Reason being: the private markets are way overvalued. The valuations enjoyed in the private markets aren’t the same as the public. As such, when hot IPOs come public, they’re often destined to fail, almost designed to.

Let’s take Shake Shack as an example. This is the preeminent fast food growth story in the country, especially now since CMG is in rebuild mode.

When SHAK came public, there was a lot of excitement around the shares. But the average layman had no idea how to value it — because, more or less, valuation is rarely if ever talked about on the dominant financial news channels.

Look at how they gunned the stock higher upon coming public.

$96 in April and by the time the ball dropped on New Years, the stock was at $30. For retail, this was a catastrophic decline, one that ruined an entire year’s returns for those who were overweight.

But all you had to do was look at the price/sales valuation against its peers to know, without question, the stock was in a dangerous price level to own. Wall Street is obsessed with peer comparisons. They always have been and always will be.

In 2016, SHAK was trading 8x sales. The hottest restaurant stock at the time was CMG — trading at 5x sales.

People gave up on SHAK, only because of the share price underperformance. But what they failed to acknowledge was that SHAK’s business was doing great. The only reason why the stock was flat to down was because it was ‘growing into’ its valuation. It was getting to a place where it could be owned, based off future expectations. This all materialized in the beginning of 2018 and now the stock is +50% for the year.

Now if you look at a price to sales chart, you see that WING is the outlier. SHAK is near the top, but no longer an outlier. The stock is up and the revenue growth has supported that increase in value. Providing the company can keep growing, I see no reason why it can’t continue higher. In theory, if SHAK grows revenues by 30% next year — the stock should increase by another ~30% — eventually heading back towards all time highs and more.

Don’t believe me? Look at the trajectory of DPZ over the years. Stocks increase in value due to either multiple expansion, which is a whole different topic, or market cap¬†growth in line with revenue growth or earnings growth. In the case with mature companies who are past the hyper-growth phase, like DPZ, PE’s and FPE’s are how you’d measure the stock. Look at DPZ, +380% over the past 5 years, 300% greater than the SPY — yet the PE is virtually the same. The increase in price is supported by the increase in earnings. These earnings were created by technology and efficiencies established by management.

And the money shot.

For those waiting for the Exodus email detailing my process in finding momentum stocks, I will be sending it out tomorrow, as I enjoy my Father’s Day breakfast and coffee.

Get out there and enjoy the weather.

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WHO’S GONNA STOP ME?

Many have tried, zero have succeeded.

Long from $4.70

Happy Father’s Day lads. Have a pint on me and smoke a good cigar, and eat a big fat steak — because stereotypes are cool and it’s your job to live up to them.

I shouldn’t have to remind you of this — but quit freeloading and join the league of gentlemen at Exodus. Trades are off the fucking hook. We’re literally halting stocks for trading due to buy imbalances.

A new era has dawned upon iBC.

Off to pop a bottle of Champagne and spray the contents at, much to the annoyance, of Mrs. Fly’s general direction.

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I TAKE ZERO L’s — MOVED TO CASH — 28 FOR LAST 29

This is space alien magician type returns.

I cleaned out most of my trading positions — moved to a 75% cash position in my active account. Bear in mind, this isn’t the bulk of my funds. That is in my quant account — because I’m not this degenerate and I know all good things eventually end and die.

However, seeing that I’ve been unusually prescient and my gains obscenely large, I opted to take the Ws and avoid the possibility of any Ls on my ledgers.

Here is the running tally now — 28 wins out of 29 booked trades. You cannot stop me, ever.

PS +20%
SOGO +16%
MDB +12%
PVTL +13.5%
QD -3%
SSTI +7%
HUBS +10%
IQ +32%
BITA +4%
SMAR +26% (doubled up)
ZUO +21%
BILI +12% (doubled up)
HUYA +19%
OSTK +2.7%
BILI +20.5%
CBLK +16%
EVBG +7.2%
APPN +9%
ZEN +6%
CLPS +104% (1 hr hold)
BL +2%
PS +4%
SMAR +4.8%
APPF +0.15%
FIZZ +16%
SHAK +12%
YEXT +12%

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Booked $CLPS Win for 104% Overnight Win — Here’s Another Suicide Pick

This is getting absurd.

Booked the trade at $11.45, long from $5.60 — just prior to the close of trade yesterday. Exodus members rejoice.

With the proceeds, instead of shying away from risk, I thrusted myself into an even dumber stock. A new Chinese education play, ticker is $AMBO.

Think LAMBO but without the L.

I’m in at ~$4.70s.

We don’t take L’s.

I’m now 21 for my last 22 booked trades.

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China Trade Wars: More Nothing — The Winship Will Continue

There is nothing here to worry about — because markets haven’t cared about fundamentals since 2011. It’s a Friday and we had a great week of speculation. Expect drawdowns after feverish rallies.

But, we’re not done making money.

Go check your quotron for a bid/ask on CLPS — +60% pre-market.

Indeud.

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RARE Educational Email Going Out This Weekend For Exodus Members

Olde school Exodus members who canceled probably lost faith because of one of two reasons.

1. They never quite grasped the platform. Too confusing and little explanation.
2. They didn’t find the Pelican Room all that interesting. Didn’t make all that much money.

I hate to be the guy who says “Under New Management”, but it literally is. I’ve tossed away my newspapers and now my sole obsession is platform education and trading prowess. Educational onboarding emails are now sent out to all members, detailing aspects of the platform that were never properly described before.

The Pelican Room is lit as fuck. The traffic is so heavy, it crushed my fucking server yesterday, forcing me to reboot the whole site.

We are trading like fools in there and the idea flow is nothing less than stellar. Granted, the market has given us a gift. But I tend to extract more than others during periods of feverish bull runs.

My CLPS is higher by 15% in the after hours. I’m long from $5.60.

This weekend I am sending out an email to Exodus users detailing the exact process of how I pick stocks. Given my 20 for 21 winning streak, I think it’s fair to say my opinions mean something, especially when it comes to finding stocks to trade on the platform.

This post is designed to encourage you to rejoin the league of gentlemen. I endeavor to build a small, but violent, army of like minded traders, whose sole purpose is to destroy the market. We will do it two ways: via quant strategies and active swing trades. It will change your net worth.

But if you think you’re doing better on your own — you can continue to drown in your delusions.

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TRYING TO LOSE MONEY NOW — MY NEXT PICK IS SUICIDAL

I’ve quenched my thirst of wanting more money. Now that I am the Joe DiMaggio of this stock game, 20 out of my last 21, I’m throwing darts in the wind — promising to hit bullseyes without trying.

Here’s what I know, from analyzing price flow.

Chinese stocks are retarded.

Remember my HUYA and IQ? See them now.

On top of that is AGMH — higher by 63% for the day on no news.

I stepped in and bought a new issue, brought public by a piece of shit investment bank, CLPS. Stock is already +11% for the day and I got printed at

I’m in at $5.60. I dare you to bet against me. There is nothing in the world that can stop me. I am literally trying to lose money here, but can’t.

Fuck the stock Gods — they’re not real. I forge my own fate, even if it’s a wanton childish and immature one. At least I’m cognizant of that fact and walk in the wind without a fucking care in the world.

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Off to Saunter About

I’ve earned respite. The lot of you haven’t. Like chum feeding off a great white shark, you shamefully take my information and profit from it. Some of you don’t even subscribe to Exodus — because you’re such misers. God will one day strike you dead.

I’m off for a walk, no cane. Maybe I’ll smoke my pipe and scowl at the youngsters for riding their tricycles too close to me.

I might even walk my coyote and encourage her to attack feral animals.

DEVELOPING…

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