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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Epidemiologist Floored By Corona Virus Virility — Warns It Could Match Spanish Flu of 1918

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a double Phd epidemiologist from Harvard, achieved at youngest age ever at the University at 23, took to twitter to alarm people about the virility of the Wuhan virus.

His main concern is the virility of the virus, stating it’s 8x more contagious than SARs. Elsewhere on Twitter are numerous truck drivers, moron stockbrokers, and a slew of paralegals, and trash men who have become arm-chair scientists — disputing Dr. Eric’s assertions. Instead of concern, these newly minted scientists are telling people to “not worry about it” because “it’s more nothing.” There is even a FUCKHEAD Buzzzzzzfeed bloggers who is combing thru all Tweets that are allegedly disseminating false info about the virus in an attempt to claim moral superiority over then — because she is in possession of the truth — in spite of her 2.8GPA in liberal arts.

His credentials.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

He graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard

Now for his warnings.

UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:

2: “This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China…

3: “In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”.

4: Even the author of the new 2.6 report admits that we need to plan for chance that “CONTAINMENT OF THIS EPIDEMIC ISN’T POSSIBLE”. Hence I’m not being uniquely distressed about this — the public health concern is very real!!

5: The 2.6’s author agrees it’s super dangerous and could infect without symptoms: “An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns. Not all might be symptomatic.”

6: How long ago did the #coronoavirus emerge and start spreading? “the Adam (or Eve) virus from which all others are descended first appeared no earlier than Oct. 30, 2019, and no later than Nov. 29.” Basically 1.5-2.5 months of unconfined proliferation.

5) This coronavirus though, it’s R0 attack rate of 2.5 or 3.8 (still prelim) is super high. Much more people fly now than in 2003 SARS. While measles has higher R0, it has a vaccine ?. Nobody has immunity to this new virus. Good R0 explainer:

4) I have published a lot of studies, including in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, as someone who has worked in academia for years. And I have been a whistleblower against big pharma in JAMA. I have never ever posted about end of world stuff and don’t ever intend to.

14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks

Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying—I’m a scientist. This #coronavirus #WuhanCoronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict @WHO will declare emergency. Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst.

15) My response to some people who think I’m trying to stoke fear… I’m a Harvard trained scientist with a doctorate in epidemiology (and the youngest dual doctoral grad from Harvard SPH)


China expanded their quarantine to 10 cities, totaling 56 million people. They’re likely doing this to reduce the virility of the virus. President Xi, in a surprising statement called the situation ‘grave.’


Full disclosure: I am a Merchant of Death, presently long the following virus related stocks: AHPI, LAKE, NNVC, APT, INO, VIR, ZLAB, NVAX, LLIT, CODX.

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If You’re Not Playing the Wuhan Virus in the Market — You’re an Idiot

People keep asking me if I’m shorting stocks because I keep posting news about the Corona Virus. Umm, no, I would never presume a virus could rock markets for more than a few days and even if it did — why would I sell short when I could make so much more in virus stocks?

Let me explain to you the type of person that I am.

I bought NNVC at $3.67 two days ago and still hold it, steadfastly. Do you know why I do this? TO BANK FUCKING COIN you faggots. While you sit there buying RAW COMMODITIES into the teeth of a burgeoning pandemic, I’m buying an ARRAY of stocks gapping the fuck higher into the sky and then the moon.

That’s who I am, pal.

Inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus, we are simply scouring the market by company profile, cross referencing with volume and price movement and riding the wave. Whether this ends well for me or not is immaterial. What’s important here is that I am a player — a man during this place and time who is willing to place his balls onto the table and speed chop carrots.

Also, my Quant is higher nearly 7% this month, spearheaded by a 2% gain today thanks to EHTH.

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The CDC confirmed a woman in her 60s was diagnosed with the Wuhan virus in Chicago. She had recently flown in directly from Wuhan.

It’s worth noting, Wuhan flies directly into O’hare. It should be noted, a tremendous amount of people are traveling in China now due to Chinese New Year.

In the most alarming thing I’ve read today was texts from alleged medical workers in China, claiming 10,000+ people are infected, it’s highly contagious, infects the bones, and is killing young doctors.

The CDC is investigating 63 potential Coronavirus cases in the US now.

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The News Over the Weekend is Going to Be Harrowing

Naturally everything is going to be okay, eventually. But until that times comes, expect the news to worsen — especially over this weekend. The Wuhan Bio-Lab most likely leaked deadly pathogens into the world and said virus is now wreaking havoc. Ergo, and this goes without saying, authorities are freaking the fuck out.

Pay attention to this news and don’t ignore it.

Headlines worth knowing.

State Department orders non-emergency personnel out of Hubei – CNN
881 cases confirmed, 26 dead
China building 1,000 bed hospital in a week

China’s Travel Limits Now Cover 35 Million People
McDonalds closes outlets in five Chinese cities $MCD
UK calls “Cobra” emergency meeting to discuss virus -CNN

The downside to playing these virus stocks is getting fucked with secondaries. If you get fucked, average down and wait for the bounce. I have immense profits in several virus stocks but have no appetite to sell yet. I am nothing but a humble merchant of death.

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UPDATE: “After an evaluation of the patient and consulting with the State Department of Health, experts have determined the patient does not have the Wuhan Coronavirus. Due to patient privacy, we are unable to provide additional information,” the hospital said in a statement

It is being reported that a patient at the Hackensack University Medical Center is being investigated for having the CoronaVirus. BIG IF TRUE.

The patient, a 25-year-old woman, was transported to the hospital on Thursday evening by the Edgewater Emergency Medical Services, according to EMS sources.

“The hospital, the Department of Health and local health officials are working together to gather additional information,” said Donna Leusner, a spokeswoman for the state Health Department.. “No definitive diagnosis has been made regarding the patient.

“As a precautionary measure, the hospital is following all appropriate infection control protocols,” she said. That would include isolating the patient.

This is massive market moving news for virus stocks.

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Lots of events are developing as we speak. The CoronaVirus is just getting started and my stocks are responding in kind. Massive gains ahead for quick witted Merchants of Death.

This is what’s new right now.

  • Two cases confirmed in Vietnam
  • Several people being monitored in Canada for infection
  • Four more cases of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed in Beijing
  • Health ministry confirms second case of coronavirus in Japan: a man in his 40s visiting Japan from Wuhan
  • 9 cities in China are in lockdown — unprecedented for country — totaling 32 million people
  • China allocates RMB 1 billion (US$144 million) to fight the virus
    Death toll rises to 26 

On the Beijing claim, a member inside the Pelican Room says his mother is a doctor in Beijing and was on “the front lines” for SARS and the people diagnosed in Beijing are NOT from Beijing. Whatever.

You get the gist.

In what perhaps could be the most interesting aspect to all this is a Bio-Weapons facility located in Wuhan — which has been a subject of concern for many years.

Dated 2017

A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

Some scientists outside China worry about pathogens escaping, and the addition of a biological dimension to geopolitical tensions between China and other nations. But Chinese microbiologists are celebrating their entrance to the elite cadre empowered to wrestle with the world’s greatest biological threats.

“It will offer more opportunities for Chinese researchers, and our contribution on the BSL?4-level pathogens will benefit the world,” says George Gao, director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology in Beijing. There are already two BSL-4 labs in Taiwan, but the National Bio-safety Laboratory, Wuhan, would be the first on the Chinese mainland.

The Wuhan lab cost 300 million yuan (US$44 million), and to allay safety concerns it was built far above the flood plain and with the capacity to withstand a magnitude-7 earthquake, although the area has no history of strong earthquakes. It will focus on the control of emerging diseases, store purified viruses and act as a World Health Organization ‘reference laboratory’ linked to similar labs around the world. “It will be a key node in the global biosafety-lab network,” says lab director Yuan Zhiming.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences approved the construction of a BSL-4 laboratory in 2003, and the epidemic of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) around the same time lent the project momentum. The lab was designed and constructed with French assistance as part of a 2004 cooperative agreement on the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. But the complexity of the project, China’s lack of experience, difficulty in maintaining funding and long government approval procedures meant that construction wasn’t finished until the end of 2014.

The lab’s first project will be to study the BSL-3 pathogen that causes Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever: a deadly tick-borne virus that affects livestock across the world, including in northwest China, and that can jump to people.

Future plans include studying the pathogen that causes SARS, which also doesn’t require a BSL-4 lab, before moving on to Ebola and the West African Lassa virus, which do. Some one million Chinese people work in Africa; the country needs to be ready for any eventuality, says Yuan. “Viruses don’t know borders.”

Gao travelled to Sierra Leone during the recent Ebola outbreak, allowing his team to report the speed with which the virus mutated into new strains1. The Wuhan lab will give his group a chance to study how such viruses cause disease, and to develop treatments based on antibodies and small molecules, he says.

Coincidence or another SARS like leak in China costing the lives of innocent citizens?

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Serious Revisions to Chinese GDP Coming

Look at copper and crude getting fucking cremated. That’s a rather morbid word, isn’t it?

I don’t give a shit what the Chinese say — their economy is going down the shit-hole with this Corona Virus business. Only three provinces in the entire country are without reported infections. This is the beginning of a pandemic scare and I happen to be Johnny on the Spot with the pandemic trades — being a grizzled veteran in this contagion game. I’ve traded every single tape and every single narrative. This is, in my estimation, a very unique situation and falls into the “black box” theory that I love so much.

No one knows anything. Therefore, you can buy XYZ based upon the ephemeral dream of grandeur.

If you followed me into NNVC, NVAX, and LAKE yesterday — you’re killing it. Another morbid word. No more free picks for you fucking free-loaders.

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The Wuhan Virus Has Only Just Begun

There are reports out of Scotland that 4 people might have the Coronavirus. Three cities in China are now under orders of quarantine: Huanggang, Wuhan, and Ezhou.

Here are some other headlines worth your perusal.

Coronavirus spreads more easily from person to person than previously thought, says WHO official
Indian nurse in Saudi Arabia diagnosed with Wuhan coronavirus
Singapore confirms first case of Wuhan virus -CNN
Global count of cases now stands at 622 #coronavirus

I am posting these as I get them via my Twitter account. Feel free to fucking follow me there, since the blog is an antiquated form of prose.

Bottom line: Look towards stocks that performed well during the Ebola, SARS, and Zika scares. This is the flu, but on crack, and it will pass. But we’re in the beginning stages of it and before we can feel good about it dying down — we first need it to crest — which will entail many more people getting sick, unfortunately. Perhaps don’t serve and eat BAT SOUP — which is rumored to be the cause of the infection.

Nevertheless, I am actively scouring and trading stocks that should benefit. I placed a watchlist up in Exodus — dubbed ‘Contagion.’ Here’s a sneak peak.

As for the overall market, it might cause a brief sell off. I suspect this whole ordeal will be yesterday’s news within a fortnight.

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