Winning Again

Not only am I back to winning again, but I’m also back to not being fooled. I cleared out all my trades this morning for +65bps and both EV and crypto miners are tantalizing me with their largess returns — but I know it’s a trap and will not buy them.

See, when you get old enough as I am, nearly 1,000 years of age in wisdom, tricks aren’t easily accomplished upon your person. The average layman sees a trick and doesn’t know they’re tricks. They see opportunity.

“OMG, look at that stock up only 40%, it’s gonna go higher. I got to get in.”

Whereas a seasoned professional, a person such as myself, understands what lies behind the veneer of beauty, an odious and hideous monster eagerly waiting in the shadows for laymans.

All that aside, markets are pressing higher —- but will fall soon enough. Be patient.

Due to a unique situation I was in this spring, I was in the market for a home in my new state of NC, specifically the Raleigh-Cary area. The price increase around April bordered on the obscene, with year over year increases of 30-50%. On top of that, nearly ever home I viewed was being bought at a minimum 10% over ask. It was obvious to me this was a bubble and rates were on the increase, thanks to Bareshelves Biden. I tempered my purchase and bought a smaller home in an ideal community. The kids are out of the house and I no longer need nor desire to have a very large home, so this will do for now.

Taking a gander at the re market tonight made me double check I had the correct filters on my Zillow app. Lo and behold over 1,200 homes in my area are now offering price cuts.

HOUSING MARKET IN PRICE COLLAPSE MODE — HERE ARE CITIES WITH MOST PRICE CUTS $NAIL pic.twitter.com/znpcorsUi6

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 20, 2022

It’s over. The price collapse is underway and the first bullet goes to the 4 home speculatooor who leveraged up to flip or rent overpriced homes because muhhhhhhh
rental income.

We are now seeing a nationwide price collapse, which if this continues through the end of summer might blossom my next March into a full blown crisis.

All day long I have been entreated to bullish commentary, cheaply clad men on the TV pronouncing the bear market to be over and how the recent turn of events into green is nothing more than a series of events that will eventually, and inexorably, lead to record highs.

In spite of my better judgement, I played the long side today, not because I wanted to — but because duty demanded it. I closed +94bps, underperforming the clown and circus circuit — however boosted and vaccinated by my quant fund +350bps.

Listen to me, the market is going to be destroyed by winter. Inside a fortnight, you will be clamoring for the mid-July days when you were happy and gay — pretending to have knowledge of future events.

It’s over. It has been over for some time and what you’re seeing now is the last gasp of a dying empire, the final rally before the dark settles in and casts poorly dressed men into the deep for the sharks to indulge in.

The summer sizzle is real.

What is Stocklabs telling us for August? Similar stats.

Once upon a time I used to deride the summer months as a waste of time, where “junior at the trading turret” was left in charge while the PM was at Newport doing cocaine for the summer. It seems this trend in the past decade plus has reversed. This does not mean the market will rise in August, but it’s certainly interesting to see how the market rhymes.

In product related news: Stocklabs is close to launching alpha trial for two new products — options and Artificial Intelligence.

During this period, we will permit free trials to happen again. We suspended them due to some bad actors taking advantage of my generosity. The AI tools is part of a comprehensive effort on my part to upload my brain into the internets so that when I die — the youth will be able to communicate with me and I will become immortal.

It is going to be nothing less than staggering.

It saddens me to say, but the market is going up. I’ve since reversed my losses, after the faux breakdown of 9:45am that will forever be forgotten and lost in the sands of time.

I have a pastiche of tech, biotech, crypto miner, commodities in my holdings, 50% cash. The reason why I have so much cash, frankly, is because I’ve been trading like a moron, so I’m limiting myself until I can prove to be effective.

+15bps now into this sprint.

Oil gapped down this morning and as soon as the market opened oil stocks shot higher.

NASDAQ futures were +150 PM and upon opening of trade all of my tech stocks went straight down.

Gold is barely up, but gold stocks are straight up.

The market is weakening but breadth is greater than 70% and all sectors are up.

They want to steal my shares or worse get me to sell short in order to re-gun stocks straight up.

Because I had UVIX this morning and I sold GUSH before it rallied, I opened with losses of 15bps, but EXTENDED said losses to 75bps via two small purchases and the downward spirals of my other holdings. I’m 76% cash, boring witness to a great fuckery this morning and I refuse to believe the market is going straight down with such good breadth, but I also believe the market is fooling me into a bullish disposition in a time of turmoil and great upheaval.

My best option is to fuck off for a while.

Jim Cramer rang the opening bell today. This is what the market did from then on.

Straight the fuck down is what you get. What you’re going to get next is more of the same. The NASDAQ is up a whole 1% for July now, amidst pomp and celebrations amongst the bullish class of inverstoor who believes in fantasy.

“It can’t happen — because it never has happened. Things will remain the same, as they have always been, because change isn’t possible.”

These are the dying words of Pax Americana — the belief of a great power remaining in charge even though the strength that got them into this position doesn’t exist anymore. The moral fabric is torn and in tatters and the people who built it are maligned as enemies. The new liberal world order is anything but liberal — but petty, shifty, Machiavellian devils. Their absurdities are only matched by their incompetence, looking a gift horse in the face and turning a blind eye to it.

There is a belief out there that everything is by design. The seemingly idiotic moves by our dear leaders are all part of a plan. They are the creators of the world and their strategy is flawless. Our feeble small minds cannot simply fathom their large brained, long term, strategem.

An alternative theory is they’re idiots.

The evidence of their gross incompetence is as clear as day, stemming from the dot com disaster until now. The only reason why they have gotten a pass is due to the stock market gains, which was buoyed by unprecedented stimulus and printing of dollars. If you traveled through time and told any economist that you felt it was a GOOD IDEA to print $9 trillion just so that the stock market could go higher, said economist would open hand smack you across the face. But because we’ve done this and haven’t really endured consequences for our actions — we deem it acceptable.

Amazing.

The lynch pin to all of this grandeur is the dominance of the US dollar. We are buoyed by the even great incompetence of our European partners and compared to them, and Japan, we look great.

Now I’m not suggesting there is a war ongoing that might possibly supplant this liberal world order. But what if there was? Would it ever matter if the Eastern alliance ditched the dollar for a currency of their own making? Are we so naive as to believe only western minds are keen enough to concoct world order schemes and if so — how is that working out for us so far?

I’d argue the bull case is predicated on status quo, whereas the bear case is a multi-polar world where the western hegemony loses power and influence. It just so happens, such a kinetic war is underway now but you’re not dodging bombs on the way to work in the morning so you’re not taking it seriously.

We’re all being assuaged by the pastoral views of SHITCOINS and HEAVY SOUR CRUDE galloping higher with the wind behind it. What you see is the beauty. What you do not see, as they gallop into the sunset, they leave with it a wake of shit. If you chase them you will soon find yourselves knee deep in it and soon enough drowning in it.

BEAR WITNESS! to RIOT and MARA higher by 20% and feeeeeeel envy as you glance at the screen, thinking you might deserve such niceties — since after all you are fully vaccinated and compliant to all of the requests made of you from your state. Try your hand now and find out soon it was never a real rally but a mirage — with only shit left on the floor for you to loiter in.

I have just 3 stocks now: MOS, CLF and PTON. The latter I am long because THE STATIONARY BICYCLE COMPANY is single digits and the wall of worry is enormous and the plebs will SOP IT UP and push it over $10 soon.

All that aside, I am not a believer and will be hedging into the close.

We are across the board melting up in all asset classes. Some people believe Russia will be winding down operations soon, once they’ve taken all of Donbas. This of course is not confirmed, but the specter of it might be enough to lend some confidence to the permanent bulls. Who, by the way, do not need any more of that.

But I don’t think traders are ever thinking about the war or anything else for that matter. We are in melt up mode for all asset classes, especially cryptos. ETH was just in the 900s and now nearing $1500.

What to make of all this? Look at WTI up 5 while at the same time retail is ripping tits to the upside clean off.

What do I think?

I think it’s fucking bullshit. I got lucky being 100% long heading into today, so I moved to cash, bought 3 more stocks, one of which was SHOP and I have since sold it for +3.5%, and now I am sitting here angry for no reason at all +1.35% and 90% cash.

I’m angry for a number of reasons, the biggest one is a dysfunctional childhood. My adulthood has been going fairly orderly and I am looking forward to my older years on the tennis courts pulling hammed strings.

Back to stocks: I’ll allocate later on this afternoon. We are now OVERBOUGHT on Stocklabs and this might not be the end of the rally. You know how the bulls get when they get that exuberance going.