Almost Impossible to Be Bearish Now

The last time we had a 6%+ rally was in March of 2020, the COVID lows. It would be arrogant to look at this THOUSAND point rally and blow it off as a bear market rally. Believe me, no one would like to see the markets in hell more than me. But there are mitigating circumstances here that must be acknowledged.

Both rates and the dollar has collapsed and we might get a free pass on inflation until next month’s CPI reading. The war in the Ukraine is looking good for NATO and Biden is meeting with Xi soon. There are many things that can be manipulated here, in terms of news, that can continue to lever up stocks in a manner on par with the 2020 bottom.

That being said, I am keeping all options open for a resumption to the downside and end of PAX AMERICANA.

It might amuse some of you to revel in some of my latest faux pas. I had stocks going down in October and then I had the Republicans winning during the elections and then I had the CPI coming in “HOT AS FUCK” based off commodity data — which was a little off kilter.

As you can see below, inflation isn’t a problem in American any longer.

CPI 0.4% M/M, Exp. 0.6%
CPI 7.7% Y/Y, Exp. 7.9%

CPI Core 0.3% M/M, Exp. 0.5%
CPI Core 6.3% Y/Y, Exp. 6.5%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 10, 2022

On this jolly good news, the NASDAQ is +591, Dow +831. The Euro is more than par, +1.6%, and the US 10yr is down a staggering 29bps to 3.85%. Concerned about oil? Don’t be. Oil is flat with gains in copper +2.3% because the Fed pivot might be here.

FED’S HARKER: EXPECT TO SLOW RATE-HIKE PACE IN COMING MONTHS

*HARKER: EXPECT FED TO PUT POLICY ON HOLD AT SOME POINT NEXT YEAR

*FED’S HARKER SEES PCE INFLATION FALLING TO AROUND 3.5% IN 2023

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 10, 2022

I had entered today with old man stocks, some NET, and a plethora of shorts — sending me lower by 340bps at the open as my SQQQ and DRV drove rail spikes through my head. I sold out of all of my longs, and then closed out my shorts — because I lost the right to own them, and then took to trading on the long side via leveraged ETFs and made back +150bps in losses at the time of this blog. I am now once again net short with LABD, SQQQ and an FAS hedge — 80% cash. But that could change in an instant — as I am trading larger sized positions than normal for 1-2% rips.

What happens next?

Well, perhaps whatever I am about to tell you just do the opposite. This much is indelibly clear:

The inflation rate is lower than expected. I realize we are still at 7.7%; but these things take time to unwind. The great pressure on rates has been greatly reduced today and we are seeing the FX markets normalize. My fear with any reflation of the stock market was to have it led higher by commodities. This is partly true today, as the Stocklabs 4000 index jimmies higher by 4%, the raw commodity index is higher by 1.15%. This is counter-intuitive for the Fed’s goals — but I don’t think it means a damn now, as we speed towards Thanksgiving in a seasonally strong time of year.

The comeuppance will occur during the holiday season, when firms report WORSE THAN EXPECTED results. Even still, I’ve concocted a list of GENERATIONAL BUYS inside Stocklabs and might begin a campaign of buying them once per month in early 2023, as I did with ETH when it was in the 100s.

Markets plunged by 600 for a variety of concerns today. Firstly, the elections proved Pax Americana is in fact dead and this nation is in its final stages of collapse. Secondly, people are spooked over the impending collapse of FTX — which has sent SHITCOINS sea-worthy into a deluge of fire and brimstone. Lastly, people are concerned tomorrow’s CPI numbers will come on “HOT AS FUCK”, as some might put it, which will then cause the Fed to hike rates until your eyes bleed.

In so many ways it’s over. The job losses are only first beginning and next we shall see COLLAPSES of large institutions. For example, everything is concerned about CS — but SIVB is down more than it YTD. There is a profound sickness about every aspect of this market. The permanent bull class of investor has been stabbed in the chest and buried.

On the topic of me, my favorite subject, I banked +75bps today in professional trading. I am hedged and smart and I will never blow up — not now, not ever. Whilst my methods might not produce 10% daily gains during short rallies, I am as right as rain and never blow up.

Here I stand before you, presiding even, +53% YTD and a quantitative passively invested portfolio up 11%, as the cunt at ARKK stacks dead bodies atop of losses — DOWN 65% YTD.

As for the CPI: the past month has been red hot for commodity prices. Expect inflation to be a problem until these pries drop.

Data via Stocklabs

The reason why you voted to oust Trump in 2020 was to send a message to him, not so much for Biden. The reason to vote GOP last night was in protest to the current ruling party, sending a message to them. But America didn’t really do that. Sure, there were some GOP gains, but nothing out of the ordinary. If you’re Biden or whoever controls him, you view this election as a rubber stamp from the American people that things are going swell and to continue the path we’re on.

ENTER FETTERMAN

Psycho

Clearly this man should not have been elected, but people voted for him anyway. Philly went more than 80% Fetterman — mostly due to the overwhelming majority the democrats own amongst blacks and latinos. He wears the dates of people MURDERED on his arms, tattooed there to remind him of all the people he has killed and the one’s he hasn’t gotten around to yet. Now that he’s in DC representing PA, I suspect several Senators will be murdered soon, providing the body of Fetterman with fresh dates to remember as he goes about life in the Fetterman way.

As for stocks.

Amazon is 10 yr oversold inside Stocklabs and nearing HISTORICAL stress to the downside levels. The data is good and if you look around you can bore witness to valuations of an absurd quality, such as SIVB trading less than 1x book for the first time since 2008.

But what exactly are we pricing in? The job data is good and earnings are off, but nothing disastrous. Have we overshot to the downside OR is the market pricing in something that is coming?

As for me, I am heavy cash, positioned in a pastiche of defensive names — hedged a little with FAZ. I am +81bps for the session and thinking the best course of action is more of the same. I shall not get vacuumed into value traps and will continue my methodical march higher amidst defensive names and hedges.

NOTE: TOOTSIE ROLL INC IS AT FRESH 52 WEEK HIGHS. If curious about the dot com implosion, I wrote two short books about my experience trading it. TR is featured too!

In the end, people get what they deserve. People were optimistic about an end to the Biden reign last night and fell flat, just like so many people out there fell flat in regards to ending the Ukraine war. We continue, as we were, almost completely undeterred by the political and economic disasters of the two years — stemming COVID policies to the war. Everything that was decided got us here. None of the economic ailments were by happenstance or caused by external factors beyond America’s control. Like building #7, we are being dismantled in a controlled manner, which makes some of you comfortable — as apparent by last night’s elections results.

That being said, morning dips will be acquired. Jobs will be lost. But in the end, the Metaverse will survive.

For the better part of the last year I had to hear the media praise this cunt Sam Bankman and his “magical firm” called FTX, which presumably was able to not only weather the storm as BTC collapsed, but also put money to work. He was, as the media called him, The Next Warren Buffet.

This piece of shit was also going to dollop a billion into politics — because nothing says “I’m a cunt like someone who wants to send $1b to political heathens.

Now it seems FTX collapsed. It collapsed so badly, with over $6b in withdrawals according to Reuters since yesterday, he begged Elon Musk to buy him out and Elon said fuck off.

CRYPTOS COLLAPSE pic.twitter.com/khPJw587MP

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 8, 2022

No clue if that is real or not. But what is real is the COLLAPSE in Bitcoin from $21k into the $17s and what is real is FTX down 78% today, amidst rumors their arch enemy Binance has agreed to bail out the cunt firm.

In other news, I traded like a Space Alien Magician and came out the other end +27bps, HEAVILY short into the elections which I am sure will secure uncertainty as the retarded APE in PA pops champagne corks into the Harvard graduate Doctor’s face and the rest of devils in blue dance around the fire as they celebrate the coming upheaval and total destruction of America as we know it.

Let this serve as a friendly reminder: the market is and always has been RIGGED. All beautiful morning crashes are met with frothing of the mouth buys. I have the documents. I am in possession of the data, via Stocklabs.

Markets are pricing in some sordid form of chicanery. BIG DICKED election rallies are all but par for the course. We have collectively forgotten all of the issues STREAMING into this timeline and have instead decided, collectively, none of them matter. All that matters is the fucking elections.

I am salty, naturally, because I got HOOKED in a LABD trade that I have been doubling down on with an MONSTROUS sized SOXL hedge. It is an arb and I need to time it right for when I close out one side of it — all hell will bust loose in my account up or down.

As it pertains to my PC: I have an appointment at 2pm, so fuck off.

In other news, Binance bought FTX. I guess FTX wasn’t the shit after all.

This morning I was completely taken aback by the morning plunge and subsequent surge. I, like a moron, got bogged down in a LABD position and bore witness to it plunging until I stabilized my losses at 2% and balanced it with SOXL. I still think there is an arb there, as LABD cascaded lower due to an atypical move in AMGN.

NEVERTHELESS, this isn’t my concern today. As you know today is Election Day and we have retarded candidates in the Democratic Party on the cusp of winning again. I don’t give a shit about all of that either. This isn’t Election Day, per se, but election week. Relax and chill out, for the process might take a week or two, in order to count all of the ballots. Also, you’d be wise to not be fooled regarding some “red wave” looming. ABC news reported it might in fact be a “RED MIRAGE” since 999.999% of the late ballot votes are in fact DEMONCRAT. Ergo, you powerless cunts will soon be able to once again enjoy murdering babies and having your guns taken away, in order to prevent death!

My chief concern isn’t any of this, but my FUCKING PC which is spitting out a NO SIGNAL unto my monitor. I am close, mind you, to taking the fucking monitor and punching it in its fucking face. My wife bought me a nice desk lamp yesterday and was mucking around, see, behind the PC last night — switching out wires and making a mess back there. Now, I have a nice lamp on my fucking desk — but no PC!

I’ll pretend I believe in the election process, for the sake of commentary.

It’ll be very nice to see the cock sucker in chief REVOKED in a malicious way this tomorrow evening, losing in districts only dreamt about in GOP wet dreams. Truth is, the least form of Marxist war mongering scum is always the preferred option. I am fairly certain, based on the track record of what democrats have done since seizing power, their time in American leadership is fast coming to an end.

They lost their censorship weapon with Elon acquiring Twitter and now they’ll lose their fucking slush fund to continue a Vietnam stratagem of ruin and death in the Ukraine.

These are of course my hopes and dreams — which are bound to be shattered to fucking pieces after the new piece of shits replace the old ones.

I started off the week DOWN 64bps, up 1% in my quant. I will expect gains for the balance of the month, since the NASDICK entered today down 4.7% for November, a completely outlier loss in the month of gravy and turkey. Also, markets have traded up in 17 of the past 19 mid term elections since 1946.

God bless America and fuck the Ukraine and fuck the cunt Jim Biden and all of his other like minded cunts who are driving people insane with division and corruption.

I guess people are wondering if the elections will be RIGGED again. Let it be known, I am an ardent election denier, always have been ever since young. I have been denying the elections for as long as I could remember, a wee small boy running about the concrete jungles of Brooklyn with a sharpened stick in hand. As I ran and ran and got winded, I could recall thinking “elections are rigged events to satiate the mobs and prevent the government from being overthrown.”

Markets are unsure as to the direction it wants to take. Risk is most certainly off in the riskiest of areas. Look at CVNA. However, there is some strength in big cap semis, finance, and commodities. There is almost no strength in healthcare and one has to be thinking this crash will be closed.

Natural gas +10% for the day only lends to the idea of a dark winter of death and destruction. Thank heavens it’s 81 degrees in NC today, otherwise my furnace might be burning through some of our national stocks. We will need those stocks to convert into LNG so that our European partners might enjoy some warmth this holiday season.