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10 reasons Trump will win

Elections are like Baseball. It only gets interesting when the playoffs start.

Here’s why Trump will win:

1) Russia. What the fuck are we doing? The voters are tired of the US being the world’s policeman. Trump may be a nut but he’s a nut focused inwardly on our problems vs ginning up some drama with Putin. Focusing inward is the best domestic and foreign policy by any POTUS or candidate in the past 30 years. Make America Great Again (except with less racism involved).

2) The Fed. Trump has called them out. He may crash western finance as we know it once in office but it was going to happen anyway. At least he’d be a POTUS dealing with reality vs fiction.

3) Trump is what he is. He’s a xenophobic billionaire womanizer. Who fucking cares. We all have flaws. He’s owned most of his crap and it’s only made him more relatable. It makes him trustworthy by comparison that his cards are on the table.

4) Polls showed Brexit would fail because it was impolite dinner conversation but when in the privacy of a voting booth people pulled the lever that was anti-establishment. I think we’ll see a lot of that in November and it’s not measured in pre election polls.

5) Trump will get more of the woman and minority vote than people are predicting. People are more willing to take the bad with the good than is estimated.

6) “Anything but this” syndrome. The public are so fed up they’ll take a sharp stick in the eye to avoid continuing to get reamed up the ass. The issues may not matter to them, they just want “different”. On some level they know they are voting for a revolution. Consider he’s the least worst candidate.

7) He’s a billionaire and yet he can still get more connected to Middle America than HRC, even if he’s tweeting ad hominem attacks from this gold toilet bowl at 3AM. You may not like what he’s saying but you can get why he’s saying it.

8) He’s survived more attacks than any candidate ever. He’s the fucking honey badger of POTUS election cycles.

9) Trump didn’t cheat Bernie Sanders out of his shot to be the nominee.

10) He’s an American success story. He may have had a leg up and acted like a dick but he’s a billionaire and that draws people in. It says nothing about him being suited for political office but a successful outsider appeals more than an ineffective career politician.

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Everyone remain calm

When the Titanic hit the iceberg the Captain told everyone to remain calm while the wealthiest passengers were loaded onto lifeboats.

If (when) DB fails what happens next?

Bail out? Nationalization? Bankruptcy?

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Whales Welcome at Winklevoss Bitcoin Exchange

The Winklevoss Gemini Bitcoin Exchange daily auction went live this week.

This article highlights the benefits of their daily auction for Bitcoin to fill large orders without moving the price. It’s a place whales can feed in peace.

How Does Auction Work?

All eligible orders will be filled at the final auction price at 4:00 p.m. ET. The final auction price of each Auction is determined by finding the price at which the greatest aggregate buy demand and aggregate sell demand from all participating orders can be filled (i.e., the price at which the largest quantity can trade). The mechanics of this auction are very similar to the closing auction (or closing “cross”) on the major electronic U.S. stock exchanges (e.g., Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, Bats). For a more detailed discussion, please see Marketplace.

Buying large quantities of Bitcoin is often done off exchange but it requires connections. I am reading this auction as a way Whales can buy/sell Bitcoin without price slippage in a controlled and supposedly trusted environment.

It’s another feather in Bitcoin’s cap and potentially opens Bitcoin up to VERY deep pockets.

Side note: I hope they did their homework on security because this site will be a big target.

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An $AAPL a day will make you gay

$AAPL broke ascending triple top triangle yesterday. (triangles are also gay)

I don’t believe this will stick. It’s iPhone hype. Still, noting a pattern on $AAPL is worth documenting. Let’s see how it plays out. What do you think?

The great thing about TA is it only deals with charts and doesn’t give a shit about my opinion, that was just extra sauce at no charge.

sharpchartv05-1

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$ILMN – feeling lucky?

Here’s an interesting chart on $ILMN. A close above $176 is a quadruple top break. A close above 178 breaks resistance going back to January.

Do you feel lucky looking at this chart? Well, do ya?

sharpchartv05

And here’s another look with different timeframe:

slack-imgs-com

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Monero on a roll

Monero, the privacy focused cryptocurrency, punched the mustache off all bearshitters this past month going from $2.5 to ~$13.5 and it’s still running.

Unlike Bitcoin, which keeps all transactions on a public ledger, Monero transactions are not traceable. Monero provides a layer of anonymity not available with other cryptocurrencies.

The bump in Bitcoin from $575 to $600 may have been the result of Monero holders moving profits to Bitcoin.

The Monero top is not in yet but once it is there will be a fall to earth. Nothing goes straight up forever.

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$HUBS vs $CRM

In  the cagematch of the 800lb gorilla $CRM vs the upstart $HUBS I am keeping my eye on $HUBS.

Hubspot released a CRM to complement their industry leading inbound marketing software. And then they made that CRM free. Smart, very smart.

This move by HUBS is a 1+1 = 3 scenario.

HUBS and CRM are not direct competitors in most cases, however they have tracked each other until recently. HUBS is near it’s all time high. I believe the street is starting to wake up to Hubspot’s potential to move up market.

Screen Shot 2016-09-04 at 4.07.14 PM

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My Portfolio in Video Form

This video reminds me of my portfolio. I am the fireman rushing from stock to stock to put out fires.

Most fires have been of the small backyard variety but I have had some multi tenant highrise torchers as well.

Sometimes the market works with you, sometimes against you. Lately it’s been against. Here’s to a better 2013.

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VMW: Stay Within the Lines

VMW has been range bound for ~2 years. How range bound? It’s imitating the basejumpers in this video going up and down a tower in Kuala Lumpur over three days.

Buy at 87 and sell at 95ish will be my game with VMW.

 

 

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