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Bitcoin: The Endgame

Crypto is going through a typical bubble cycle. After euphoria we have capitulation, despair and then a resumption of trend at a more sane pace.

Looking back at history we can see this bubble cycle play out again and again. As the legendary investor Jesse Livermore said:

“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”

What surprises me is the amount of pundits who say BTC still has a shot at reaching all time highs again. While it’s true Amazon lost over 80% in value during the dot com crash before becoming a $1T dollar company many companies that had much higher valuations than Amazon during the crash are no longer around.  The difference is Amazon had a viable business model, great leadership and a roadmap beyond the hype. I can’t say that about BTC.

The darlings of crypto 2 years ago are mostly faint memories. Today’s market leaders may not be top 10 coins by mid 2019. There comes a point where not only does the hype die off but the market learns and applies hard lessons to future valuations.

Pundits like to point back to times Crypto had a huge decline and then posted new highs. Those were different times. Crypto was not on CNBC 24/7 during those runs. The market has gotten smarter. The pundits have not.

Gone are the days of a whitepaper and a website generating millions with an ICO in 24 hours. That’s never coming back in Crypto. I mean it. NEVER.

Yet many people are buying shitcoins like it’s 2017. These people lack decorum and will have their funds liquidated post haste.

What matters now is adoption. Real world users with real world use cases. I’m not talking about credit cards that debit your Crypto balance or being able to buy Crypto via Square. That’s the status quo putting a yoke on Crypto. If that’s our future then Crypto lost.

The bloom is off the rose. 2019 will be the year Crypto proves itself. Bitcoin Is Dead. Long Live Bitcoin.

Taking this criteria what looks good? What coins have potential to step into that role? What does it take to fulfill that role? Who are the leaders to watch?

I’ll make it easy for you. Only one coin has a roadmap and has taken the first steps towards that future. Bitcoin SV (BSV).

In this future I’m talking about companies using Bitcoin as a commodity ledger. Using Bitcoin smart contracts to execute business processes, loans, logistics, escrow and payments. Using Bitcoin as the way to assign value to every piece of information in the world. Once we can value information effortlessly our information becomes more valuable. It’s a repeating and self reinforcing cycle.

Using Bitcoin’s utility inside Bitcoin will change how business is done. One of the things Bitcoin can provide is transparency. In other words, integrity. Imagine Enron or Lehman or AIG if their books were verified on a commodity ledger (this does not mean anyone could view it but it could mean that it’s accuracy could be independently verified). In this example companies could state the hash of their financials publicly via a Bitcoin transaction. Each hash is unique. This hash locks the statement about the data into a public record. Auditors can then verify that hash against the files they receive from the company. New quarterly financials can be posted with a new hash.

The mortgage meltdown happened in part because banks could no longer track all the terrible loans they had repackaged into toxic packages and resold to retirement funds. That would not happen if Bitcoin were tracking those loans.

An immutable blockchain means those firms can’t fudge their numbers. There is no erase. You can only write new data. The audit trail is always there.

Imagine the Pentagon held to account. They’ve only lost $7T in taxpayer money in the past couple years and that doesn’t cause a revolution? Bitcoin could stop that with just a few quarterly or yearly transactions.

That’s a game changer.

That’s just the start. Imagine every webpage on the Internet linked to payments in Bitcoin. What has value is rewarded. What doesn’t have value is not. Information becomes our new currency. The fear, uncertainty and doubt that has led to human misery, unfair advantages, economic upheaval and even war is exposed. Truth wins because truth has value.

Now, imagine every component of your car has a supply chain history via Bitcoin. Now scale that to everything.

This is Bitcoin.

So while Jesse Livermore’s quote above is still correct: “there is nothing new in the market” we are now entering a new phase. Jesse is speaking about the speculation phase and he’s correct. Now, we are entering a new phase. This Time is Different.

Bitcoin has shrugged off the pretenders. Now it’s time to really show what Bitcoin can do.

I expect Bitcoin to rally in 2019.

Unless stated otherwise when I say Bitcoin I am exclusively referring to Bitcoin SV (BSV). BSV is Bitcoin and the only crypto that has the ability to scale with a roadmap that includes Metanet and global cash.

If you like this post feel free to tip BSV to: 1EtHhqACn1hTFPQyC9MCAQyNZymTSoUs9o

This post originally appeared on Coinspeak.io

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Metanet Is The Future

Buckle up. This post will take you down a deep rabbit hole.

“Bitcoin is an economic system”. Today I discovered a whole new meaning to this frequently used statement and I’ll share it below. First, watch the clip of this video from 2014:

Craig Wright is talking about Metanet … in 2014! In London last week during this presentation Dr Wright describes Metanet by name:

To recap key points:

  • Bitcoin is a decentralized, trustless, peer to peer system
  • Bitcoin is designed to scale globally
  • Bitcoin is competitive
  • Metanet will be built on top of Bitcoin

With me? OK, here’s more. IPV6 is the future of Internet addressing. Metanet can use IPV6 to address every object globally and then make payments. Per the example in the video, my Coke can have an address. If my can makes it to a recycling center I will have my recycling deposit paid back in Bitcoin. If my Coke can ends up in a river my deposit goes to recycling costs (or I am possibly fined). This creates an end to end economic system where incentives drive behavior and all of it is recorded on Bitcoin. Before you object with a “big brother” scenario the blockchain at scale is still pseudonymous while reinforcing behaviors with value. This is a leap forward compared to systems of today where your data is the product.

In this example Bitcoin remains decentralized, trustless, peer to peer AND creates a system of incentives. Lay this system on top of anything and the possibilities of that system alter dramatically because Bitcoin can now incentivize participants instantly. Behaviors will dramatically shift.

Bitcoin could alter the Actor – Observer bias. This bias theorizes that when we see someone else run a stop light we instantly judge and condemn that person but when WE run a red light we have excuses and reasons for OUR behavior. This simple bias blocks us from seeing our actions truly as others see us. Bitcoin could be that private observer for each of us helping us see ourselves as others see us and acting with a higher level of consciousness/awareness.

Now, let’s imagine Bitcoin is global. The incentives in Bitcoin extend to society. Society becomes decentralized, trustless and peer to peer. Borders fall away. Wars stop. What remains are incentives.

Metanet provides incentives that are decentralized and reward what’s valued. Clickbait dies. Good content flourishes. Efficient systems naturally replace Government bureaucracy.. Waste and grift lose value. Value, in whatever form, is rewarded by others. Truth wins.

Bitcoin has a limit of 21M coins and a distribution schedule that ends in 2140. This is humanity’s chance at a new future and it roughly lines up with our natural resources crisis. Bitcoin / Metanet can order our limited resources in a way that we make it past current projections as a species. We’ll either make this transition or we won’t. I shudder to think if we fail this test.

Metanet is the future and it’s running on Bitcoin’s economic system.

Unless stated otherwise when I say Bitcoin I am exclusively referring to Bitcoin SV (BSV). BSV is Bitcoin and the only crypto that has the ability to scale with a roadmap that includes Metanet and global cash.

Song below is sampled on one of my favorite Kanye West tracks, Touch the Sky.

This post originally appeared on Coinspeak.io

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Buy The Blood, Not The FUD

Crypto is careening down a vertical cliff towards a bottomless pit.

Deservedly so.

Yet here I am long Bitcoin (BSV) and sleeping like a baby. Why?

Because with BSV separated from BTC and BCH Bitcoin now has a shot at realizing it’s potential. Bitcoin is shedding the dead weight and growing up.

During the CoinGeek Week conference in London at the end of November many new ideas were discussed including a concept called Metanet. Here’s Dr Craig Wright’s presentation:

At a high level, Metanet is the Internet running on Bitcoin. Imagine loading a webpage and a micropayment is made on Bitcoin. This micropayment provides: revenue for miners to keep blockchain secure, keeps the Internet properly incentivized for what has value vs being forced into servitude to FANG’s algos and potentially begins to create a new economy where things that have value are rewarded and those that do not fall to the side.

This is a wholly new economic model for humanity. Ever wonder how the economy ran in the TV show Star Trek? I could argue Bitcoin is the basis of that kind of economy Pure capitalism rewards value and removes waste.

Only Bitcoin SV can scale to meet this need. The plan is 1TB blocks every 10 minutes. At that level Bitcoin SV can handle all payments globally. That’s something to get excited about.

Another takeaway from the conference is “commodity ledger”. Use Bitcoin as a commodity ledger. Anything and everything on Bitcoin for a fraction of a cent. This adds up to increased adoption and increased value.

BSV is ~$100 at the writing of this post. I expect $1,000 by end of 2019.

All the other coins and their promises don’t stand a chance. If you’re holding any coin except BSV I expect it to go to zero. It’s BSV or bust.

In my last post I said I sold all my ABC coins for BSV. I followed this process. If you choose to do this be careful. You can lose all you funds if you don’t understand what you are doing.

 

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Back From The Killing Fields

Greetings plebs.

I write to you from beautiful Thailand, specifically, Koh Lanta island. I am working from kohub.org for the month of November and December. I may be permanently ruined for living in the US as this is next level lifestyle. I haven’t worn proper shoes or socks for a month. Last night’s sunset:

I could fill the Library of Congress about how my life is better than yours so let’s talk about why you’re here. You want to see me either:

  1. Ascend to legend status assuming the ethereal form of fuck you money
  2. Get my crypto ass raped

Well, this week has been a bit of both. I won’t bore you with details so here’s the summary.

Bitcoin Cash was scheduled to have an upgrade. Due to two development teams who did not reach agreement by the November 15 deadline Bitcoin Cash split into two coins: Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV.

During a fork holders get equal amounts of each coin. Think of it as a stock split except now your shares are on two different tickers.

What to do with my now equal stacks of Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV? I went full degen and sold every Bitcoin ABC to buy Bitcoin SV at 4:1. Some would say this is a gamble. But so is life.

As Bitcoin SV goes so will I. Fuck you money or McDonalds. There is no in between.

Enjoy the show.

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A Bitcoin Call to Arms

 

On November 15 Bitcoin Cash hard forked when two developer groups disagreed on the future of Bitcoin Cash. I covered the background in this post. Read that for a primer on how we got here.

When there are multiple groups competing to be the default ruleset and client used to run the Bitcoin Cash network the issue is resolved using Nakamoto Consensus. At a high level Nakamoto Consensus says that in the event of a conflict Bitcoin miners will choose what software to run thus declaring a winner (via majority) and, very importantly, a loser (more on that later). From the Bitcoin Whitepaper:

They (miners) vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism.

Nakamoto Consensus is baked into the design of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the work of a group of geniuses providing many breakthroughs such as: Byzantine General’s problemTriple Entry Accounting, Game Theory, Turing Completeness in Bitcoin script, AI etc. Anyone who does not recognize the staggering achievement of Bitcoin as a system is ill informed or disingenuous about their motivations for being in the Cryptocurrency space and not to be trusted.

Furthermore, I am quite clear who is the surviving member of the Satoshi team. I believe this person will be stepping forward with proof soon. And if they do not, that is OK. Bitcoin was designed for Satoshi to be anonymous. Satoshi would only step forward to save Bitcoin, and that may be where we are headed.

Most geniuses are rarely appreciated in their own lifetime. The magnitude of their genius only recognized once the full impact is realized, which often takes decades. Another fact that is lesser known, many geniuses are assholes. You need look no further than Sir Isaac Newton for an example. In the Forbes article ,Why was Sir Isaac Newton Such A Jerk?‘, Steven Ross Pomeroy writes:

He was not given to lightness of manner, nor did he show any capacity for self-irony. When angered, he became unbalanced and, it must be said, vindictive and petty.

Though his personality didn’t endear him to almost anyone, it served his career remarkably well. Ruthlessness is a surprising bedfellow to scientific success. When two other scientists, Robert Hooke and Gottfried Leibniz, offered criticism or competed with Newton for claim over the revolutionary ideas of gravity and calculus, Newton pursued personal vendettas against them. These grudges persisted even after Hooke and Leibniz were in their graves, with Newton trashing the reputations and discoveries of both Leibniz and Hooke while elevating his own.

Dr Craig Wright, the Chief Scientist of nChain, fits the asshole genius description well. Dr Wright, when crossed, is a world class jerk and this character flaw may have been very costly during the past week’s events. Much like Isaac Newton, Dr Wright, “when angered, he became unbalanced and, it must be said, vindictive and petty.

It’s unfortunate. Here’s why:

In the BCH hash war there are two sides. Bitcoin ABC, led by Amaury Sechet and Bitmain vs Bitcoin SV, led by Craig Wright and nChain.

In the weeks leading up to November 15 Craig Wright bluntly told a lot of people to “fuck off”.  Here’s an email he wrote to Roger Ver, the CEO of Bitcoin.com

That was just one example. Other notable statements were made about bankrupting exchanges that chose to run Bitcoin ABC software. Basically, anyone who disagreed with Craig was mocked, blocked and/or publicly flayed. Not a good look when heading into a battle for the future of Bitcoin. Dr Wright’s many attacks on persons and organizations in Crypto opened the door to ABC offering a safe haven alternative to a powerful nChain fighting for Satoshi’s Bitcoin.

Why was Craig so cocky? Craig had reason to believe that with his investment in hash power he could beat ABC. To prepare for threats during the year leading up to the past week nChain and sister company Coingeek invested HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS to build a Bitcoin mining operation in support of defending Bitcoin Cash as outlined in the Bitcoin Whitepaper.

When Bitcoin ABC proposed changes that differ from that path the November 15 upgrade became the deadline for a hash war.

On November 15 there were multiple livestreams broadcasting the fork with ongoing commentary from Crypto experts. Something was odd from the start. Watching the pro ABC teams there was something fishy. They looked incredibly confident, cocky even. Something in their mannerism was not consistent with a team at war in a high stakes battle. Then, this was said by Andreas Brekken on a livestream:

What is Andreas saying? Bitcoin ABC changed the rules of the fight. They broke from Satoshi’s design of Bitcoin to avoid a negative outcome from Nakamoto Consensus. They used a software checkpoint to prevent any group of miners from rewriting their chain.

Further, they distributed this software change to exchanges in secret. They created a cartel. Bitcoin was designed to be decentralized. ABC is now centralized by the group of players who are holding the checkpoints.

Putting it bluntly, ABC cheated. But all is fair in love and war, right? OK in that case, I’ll retract the “cheated” statement. Even so, the facts are ABC subverted the design of Bitcoin and Nakamoto Consensus to ensure their chain survived. This has caused a split. Now BCH is two coins: BAB (Bitcoin ABC) and BSV (Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision).

That means double the coins ~17M to 34M. Two chains. Inflation. Confusion. Rather than a decisive battle won by hash we have a protracted war with two blockchains sharing the same resiliency features. Bitcoin was not designed to split. It is designed so that the strongest version survives. That is what makes Bitcoin Bitcoin. It’s resilient. Evolving. Always getting stronger. Bitcoin ABC put that aside in their own self interest.

With a single line of code Bitcoin ABC dealt a massive blow to the hundreds of millions in real capital nChain invested in securing the BCH chain.

BRUTAL is an understatement.

ABC ignored what makes Bitcoin Bitcoin and instead chose to create a new genesis block at the checkpoint. Unfortunately, many are following this coin as if it were Bitcoin. ABC is DEFINITELY not Bitcoin. ABC is an experiment with altered economics.

Bitcoin is a system. It draws on multiple disciplines. One of the primary features of Bitcoin is the economic model of mining and security. ABC threw economics out the window. Forcing a split vs a winner take all has a hugely negative impact on all of Crypto.

So now what? ABC is claiming victory. SV is vowing to fight on.

The Hash War continues. And we know there are no winners in war. This graphic from Cointelegraph shows the current 24 hour burn rates. Actual cost are likely much higher as the war has escalated. nChain has stated they are prepared for a very long war. At some point the losses will be too large to sustain and ABC or SV will have to concede.

Here’s my personal take:

Bitcoin ABC does not understand Bitcoin. They are a group of developers. As developers everything they see is through the eyes of a developer. Their answer to everything is MORE code. Their major backer is the mining giant Bitmain who is behind a new coin called Wormhole which is generated by burning BCH. Bitcoin ABC is a threat to the promise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is about the economics, stupid. Code is a tool to express the economic model, not the other way around.

Craig Wright is a dick.  Craig’s tirades and personal attacks opened the door for ABC to collude with exchanges so they accept a checkpoint as compromise and protection from nChain. There has been a lot of damage. Jimmy Nguyen, Calvin Ayre, where were you? We needed calmer heads to prevail. We now have a huge mess with two coins and an extended battle ahead.

With that said. I firmly support Bitcoin SV and I denounce Bitcoin ABC. 

Bitcoin is hard money. It’s world changing, but it’s not invincible. There are real world economic and adoption problems to solve before the next halvening. Plain and simple, the only Crypto I see that has a chance at fulfilling on the potential of world money is Bitcoin SV.

I encourage everyone to consider what you support and then make it known. This is a Call to Arms.

Lords and ladies, call your bannermen.

The battle isn’t over. It has just begun.

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HASH WAR!

Bitcoin Cash is at WAR!


Actual Bitcoin Cash holder staring down the war machines.

 

(originally posted this November 6, 2018 on another site, reposting here for IBC members)

Who is at war?

Bitcoin ABC, the Bitcoin client led by developer Amaury Sechet and supported by mining giant Bitmain is proposing changes to BCH. Amaury took the initiative to split away from BTC before Segwit was introduced, thus preserving Bitcoin as BCH.

nChain, led by Chief Scientist Craig Wright with support from CoinGeek, is rebuking the ABC proposal and any new OP_CODES. nChain wants BCH to be stable and focus on scaling with minimal software changes.

Why is there a war happening?

Simply put, there is a difference of opinion on what the future of Bitcoin Cash should look like.

Bitcoin ABC believes the best path to scaling BCH includes CTOR and Pre Consensus. Amaury Sechet wrote this blog post on Pre Consensus where he stated:

While pre-consensus is on the roadmap since day 1, it has made close to zero progress. I cannot tell why other have not worked on it, but I know why I did not. This years has been full of crisis to manage, of people wanting attention to get alternatives ideas move forward, the flavor of the day being tokens. While all these project have value, it is clear that I need to ruthlessly prioritize pre-consensus. The actions I have to take along the way will surely irritate many, but this is too important to not be tackled now.

nChain, which until recently did not have a Bitcoin client, has fought for minimal changes to Bitcoin Cash. nChain’s approach is to use existing script to extend functionality and leave the base protocol untouched. Their vision of scaling is to have the miners compete to build the most robust network possible.

What if ABC wins?

BCH will continue with changes to the economics to support DSV and a new way to order transactions for future scaling projects like Pre Consensus. It remains to be seen how big changes to the base protocol may affect BCH going forward and how many changes we could expect in the future should miners continue to support ABC. There hasn’t been much testing of these changes and there have been hints from nChain that they are dangerous.

What if nChain wins?

BCH will continue with old OP_CODES reenabled and a new higher block size limit. The focus remains on scaling on chain with Bitcoin as near to it’s original release as possible. Functions that would be enabled in DSV via OP_CODE would remain only accessible in a complicated and expensive script and miners would bear the brunt of costs to keep their networks able to handle ever larger blocks.

When?

November 15th is the date to set in your calendar. However, there have been skirmishes online for months. The war could last hours to days. If it goes on for weeks we’ll have a major setback for all of Crypto.

How will this play out?

That is the million dollar question. Will we see Nakamoto Consensus in action as designed? If so, the client who has the most hash support will win. This is the ideal solution as it proves the robustness of Bitcoin’s original design and assures the market that there is an impartial path to resolving disputes.

There is a chance we’ll see a community backlash and exchanges may create two separate tickers. Some companies, like Trezor and Roger Ver’s Bitcoin.com, have already come out to support ABC. This is pure politics. It shows they have a commitment their own agenda above the commitment to their users, Bitcoin or the community.

Additionally, no matter the outcome in the early days, Craig Wright has stated he will never give up. Rather, he is prepared to fight a hash war for 2 years if needed. This would be incredibly expensive for nChain and impact BCH for as long as the fight continues. In this scenario, BCH would be unusable until the issue is resolved. We will see if nChain has the resolve to take this option if needed.

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No Turning Back

Crypto is super weird right now.

Bitcoin Cash is headed towards a critical moment. Summarizing from the highest levels there is a disagreement about future features to be implemented in November.

On one side you have nChain, gaming billionaire Calvin Ayre and Dr Craig Wright. The BCH argument is Bitcoin Cash is money. Don’t mess with the base protocol, which is cash, to add developer desired tweaks. One reason: any changes in that protocol must be supported forever. BCH is not designed to be a dev playground and there is one cardinal rule in the universe: you don’t fuck with another man’s money (OK, I added that last part, but it applies). BCH’s role is as cash for 5 billion + people and you don’t tweak a system like that to satisfy a dev team.

On the other side we have an odd group of bedfellows. We have Amaury Sechet, a French developer who leads a dev team called Bitcoin ABC (Another Bitcoin Client) and a few Chinese miners which looks like it includes industry heavyweight Jihan Wu. Their argument is now is the time to add a few features that will enable capabilities / scaling.

There was a meeting two days in Bangkok to hammer out differences prior to November. Craig Wright allegedly left the meeting after 10 minutes. Diplomacy has failed. Jihan Wu is the founder of Bitmain, the world’s largest distributor of the special ASICs used to mine BTC and BCH. Bitmain holds over 1 million BCH and is now forced with a Sophie’s Choice. Do they push for their desired protocol changes and risk a war with nChain or do they put aside their agenda and go with nChain’s vision? One thing is certain, Bitmain has a huge bag of BCH to deal with.

Still with me? Wow, you are a masochist.

Now we have this:

Then…we allegedly have Craig himself saying Satoshi Nakamoto was him, the deceased Dave Kleiman and the also deceased David Rees. That’s right. 2 of the 3 folks who were part of the start of Bitcoin have passed away. This is some Tom Clancy level shit.

If you don’t know, Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym for the creator(s) of Bitcoin.

While announcing Craig is Satoshi isn’t shocking news what makes this unique is it’s a statement that comes at a time when people are choosing whether to follow Satoshi Nakamoto’s original design or not on a new level. This is an existential moment. Someone is going to lose, big time. Will it be Jihan Wu and Bitmain or will Craig Wright and Calvin Ayre get wiped out?

On a related note, on September 1, 2018 there will be a stress test on Bitcoin Cash. https://stresstestbitcoin.cash/

Some people have begun testing early.

This test could be great for BCH. It will show true capacity, expose any miners who need to upgrade prior to November and display BCH’s capabilities vs BTC. Of course, there is a chance for major problems but you know, YOLO.

So leading in to November what do I think? I’m still oddly bullish on BCH. There is some drama in BCH’s future for sure but finally a Cryptocurrency is going to test Nakamoto consensus. This split won’t be decided on Reddit or Twitter or via hats and hashtags. This is real world. The first hash war is set to happen and someone will LOSE.

Craig Wright has stated his side has enough hash and resources to bankrupt anyone who challenges them. It remains to be seen what happens.

I am still irresponsibly allocated in BCH. You have front row seats to my complete demise or my ascension to the 1% of the 1%.

Good day sirs.

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Manias, Bubbles and S Curves

In late 2017 I talked to Fly about doing an IBC Crypto Boot Camp. I created some content but didn’t follow through with Fly on organizing the Boot Camp.

So, I’ll release the material I created for free. High level summary is that Crypto is in an S Curve of adoption. The bubbles along the way are expected and opportunities to buy low / sell high. I CALLED THIS IN 2017.

There is nothing but bad news about Crypto now. That’s the perfect buy signal. Start accumulating now and be prepared for a wild ride. The bear market is not dead yet so buy wisely, but do buy and stick to quality coins only. Timeframe: 6+ months.

Here’s your free content: Manias, Bubbles and S Curves.

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CRYPTO MURDERED, DIAL 911

Crypto is a crime scene. Chalk outlines and blood splatters of liquidated longs are all that remain.

This means one thing. Time to buy the blood.

There’s no doubt Crypto got the hammer in 2018. Good. December 2017 was gluttony. I am a crypto bull and I was annoyed by the prancing lambo moon soyboys in spacecat t shirts and their 20,000% returns. Dumb money was rushing in at the rate of 40,000 new Crypto exchange accounts being created PER DAY. Think about that. That is an epic statistic and the peak signal of a bubble.

People were buying Ripple for fuck’s sake. That is the definition of insanity.

So why would I say it’s time to get long? Because the genie is out of the bottle. Programmable digital money is not going away. Crypto is the future. This retracement was needed but it’s nearing it’s end (give or take 6 months).

The market has left mania phase and is settling into price discovery. Crypto prices falling are part of that. Price discovery is a bitch.

But let me repeat, programmable money will survive. Which coin(s) survive is a hot topic of debate. In the dot com boom many companies were thought to be essential to the ecosystem. Yahoo paid ~6B for Broadcast.com as an example. A lot of really smart people approved the BCST deal at the time. In hindsight YHOO buying BCST was a catastrophic move. Who can say what will be smart or dumb in Crypto in a few months or years? All I can say with certainty is that Crypto will survive and thrive. This is an opportunity to BTFD.

Another reason to get long Crypto is the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks and Real Estate have had epic runs and are showing signs of reversing direction. Diversify those profits now. In addition, Warren Buffett is steering the SS Berkshire into cash and away from markets because he can’t find anything with a reasonable valuation. Berkshire is a huge ship to turn with a powerful wake and a telltale sign of the shifting of market sentiment.

Then there’s the global macro trade and currency war that is brewing. Crypto is volatile but when your national currency enters hyperinflation, drops 15% because of a Trump tweet or your banks freeze withdrawals Crypto is a safe haven by comparison. Crypto is the ultimate hedge.

So yes, Crypto is a mess. It’s still in freefall price discovery. This is when you should get your affairs in order and your fiat staged to enter the market. Catching a bottom is difficult but money is made when you buy, not when you sell.

I am still fully allocated in BCH.

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Crypto Strikes Back

DOUCHE bank is going to collapse, Italy is going to stuff all of EU’s debt into it’s boot then flush it into the Mediterranean and GDPR is the canary in the coal mine that Big Data social media companies are grossly overvalued.

The Fed has put a bid under the market for 10 years. Maybe they will do it another 10 years. But today….today Crypto strikes back with gains while markets plummet. Fiat, government backed currencies are getting closer to a showdown with decentralized HARD money backed by math. So far it’s been an landslide win for Crypto.

Markets are cyclical. Every 40+ years a new asset class is birthed. Like any birth it’s messy and loud and you want to throw up. In the juvenile stage there are times when you want to shake the baby.

But for those assets that survive there is a chance at reshaping markets and even our day to day lives.

The past week Crypto suffered a dramatic correction. The correction may not be over. I am looking at charts daily to consider selling a rally. But this post is not about short term movements. This is big picture stuff….

When Fly posted about his losses in Crypto and how he’s abandoned the space I thought “perfect”. This is what is needed. We need the latecomers who got fleeced to completely abandon Crypto. That’s when smart money steps in and the new ramp begins. Tweets like this are a good sign.

There are Manias (tulips), Bubbles (beanie babies) and S-Curves (Internet). Crypto is an example of all three. At times Crypto is Manic. Remember our $1,000 daily candles? That’s insane. A rocket ship form $1k to $20k Bitcoin in 2017 definitely qualifies as a Bubble. But……if you ZOOM OUT, you start to see an S Curve. That S Curve is what you buy and the price you pay is riding out the volatility.

I detest the HODL mentality. I want to punch people in the face when I hear that word. But in the grand scheme playing Warren Buffett and holding hard money for 6+ months hasn’t failed yet.

Sell your altcoins. The market is nearing purge mode where alts will be punished severely.

Buy the S Curve. Sell the Bubbles.

 

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