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No Turning Back

Crypto is super weird right now.

Bitcoin Cash is headed towards a critical moment. Summarizing from the highest levels there is a disagreement about future features to be implemented in November.

On one side you have nChain, gaming billionaire Calvin Ayre and Dr Craig Wright. The BCH argument is Bitcoin Cash is money. Don’t mess with the base protocol, which is cash, to add developer desired tweaks. One reason: any changes in that protocol must be supported forever. BCH is not designed to be a dev playground and there is one cardinal rule in the universe: you don’t fuck with another man’s money (OK, I added that last part, but it applies). BCH’s role is as cash for 5 billion + people and you don’t tweak a system like that to satisfy a dev team.

On the other side we have an odd group of bedfellows. We have Amaury Sechet, a French developer who leads a dev team called Bitcoin ABC (Another Bitcoin Client) and a few Chinese miners which looks like it includes industry heavyweight Jihan Wu. Their argument is now is the time to add a few features that will enable capabilities / scaling.

There was a meeting two days in Bangkok to hammer out differences prior to November. Craig Wright allegedly left the meeting after 10 minutes. Diplomacy has failed. Jihan Wu is the founder of Bitmain, the world’s largest distributor of the special ASICs used to mine BTC and BCH. Bitmain holds over 1 million BCH and is now forced with a Sophie’s Choice. Do they push for their desired protocol changes and risk a war with nChain or do they put aside their agenda and go with nChain’s vision? One thing is certain, Bitmain has a huge bag of BCH to deal with.

Still with me? Wow, you are a masochist.

Now we have this:

Then…we allegedly have Craig himself saying Satoshi Nakamoto was him, the deceased Dave Kleiman and the also deceased David Rees. That’s right. 2 of the 3 folks who were part of the start of Bitcoin have passed away. This is some Tom Clancy level shit.

If you don’t know, Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym for the creator(s) of Bitcoin.

While announcing Craig is Satoshi isn’t shocking news what makes this unique is it’s a statement that comes at a time when people are choosing whether to follow Satoshi Nakamoto’s original design or not on a new level. This is an existential moment. Someone is going to lose, big time. Will it be Jihan Wu and Bitmain or will Craig Wright and Calvin Ayre get wiped out?

On a related note, on September 1, 2018 there will be a stress test on Bitcoin Cash. https://stresstestbitcoin.cash/

Some people have begun testing early.

This test could be great for BCH. It will show true capacity, expose any miners who need to upgrade prior to November and display BCH’s capabilities vs BTC. Of course, there is a chance for major problems but you know, YOLO.

So leading in to November what do I think? I’m still oddly bullish on BCH. There is some drama in BCH’s future for sure but finally a Cryptocurrency is going to test Nakamoto consensus. This split won’t be decided on Reddit or Twitter or via hats and hashtags. This is real world. The first hash war is set to happen and someone will LOSE.

Craig Wright has stated his side has enough hash and resources to bankrupt anyone who challenges them. It remains to be seen what happens.

I am still irresponsibly allocated in BCH. You have front row seats to my complete demise or my ascension to the 1% of the 1%.

Good day sirs.

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Manias, Bubbles and S Curves

In late 2017 I talked to Fly about doing an IBC Crypto Boot Camp. I created some content but didn’t follow through with Fly on organizing the Boot Camp.

So, I’ll release the material I created for free. High level summary is that Crypto is in an S Curve of adoption. The bubbles along the way are expected and opportunities to buy low / sell high. I CALLED THIS IN 2017.

There is nothing but bad news about Crypto now. That’s the perfect buy signal. Start accumulating now and be prepared for a wild ride. The bear market is not dead yet so buy wisely, but do buy and stick to quality coins only. Timeframe: 6+ months.

Here’s your free content: Manias, Bubbles and S Curves.

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CRYPTO MURDERED, DIAL 911

Crypto is a crime scene. Chalk outlines and blood splatters of liquidated longs are all that remain.

This means one thing. Time to buy the blood.

There’s no doubt Crypto got the hammer in 2018. Good. December 2017 was gluttony. I am a crypto bull and I was annoyed by the prancing lambo moon soyboys in spacecat t shirts and their 20,000% returns. Dumb money was rushing in at the rate of 40,000 new Crypto exchange accounts being created PER DAY. Think about that. That is an epic statistic and the peak signal of a bubble.

People were buying Ripple for fuck’s sake. That is the definition of insanity.

So why would I say it’s time to get long? Because the genie is out of the bottle. Programmable digital money is not going away. Crypto is the future. This retracement was needed but it’s nearing it’s end (give or take 6 months).

The market has left mania phase and is settling into price discovery. Crypto prices falling are part of that. Price discovery is a bitch.

But let me repeat, programmable money will survive. Which coin(s) survive is a hot topic of debate. In the dot com boom many companies were thought to be essential to the ecosystem. Yahoo paid ~6B for Broadcast.com as an example. A lot of really smart people approved the BCST deal at the time. In hindsight YHOO buying BCST was a catastrophic move. Who can say what will be smart or dumb in Crypto in a few months or years? All I can say with certainty is that Crypto will survive and thrive. This is an opportunity to BTFD.

Another reason to get long Crypto is the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks and Real Estate have had epic runs and are showing signs of reversing direction. Diversify those profits now. In addition, Warren Buffett is steering the SS Berkshire into cash and away from markets because he can’t find anything with a reasonable valuation. Berkshire is a huge ship to turn with a powerful wake and a telltale sign of the shifting of market sentiment.

Then there’s the global macro trade and currency war that is brewing. Crypto is volatile but when your national currency enters hyperinflation, drops 15% because of a Trump tweet or your banks freeze withdrawals Crypto is a safe haven by comparison. Crypto is the ultimate hedge.

So yes, Crypto is a mess. It’s still in freefall price discovery. This is when you should get your affairs in order and your fiat staged to enter the market. Catching a bottom is difficult but money is made when you buy, not when you sell.

I am still fully allocated in BCH.

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