Lab Results Are In: We’re Bullish Here

Well hello, you there, with the electronic device staring you in the face, come have a look inside my laboratory:

These lines are an extension of my brain laced with Fly’s computer brain inside the Exodus time machine.  The two form a symbiotic bond that does an okay job of forecasting 1-week’s worth of stock market behavior.

You see, my brain doesn’t work like a normal humans.  It compartmentalizes things to make sense of it all.  Order from chaos, if you will.  Sometime a big pool of chaos is compartmentalized, even if only temporarily.  Like my tool shelf which, for the last three or so years has simply been the zone where tools are placed.  Many others are commissioned to use my tools and over time it became a royal mess.  But in my brain, tools went there.

I spend the better part of Saturday tearing open that royal cluster fuck of a shelving mess, disposing of the useless and further compartmentalizing the tool zone.   It now has several distinct and logical zones for specific tools.

Now, when I need to work on one of my robots, I can quickly access my drivers, for example.  They’re all in one bin.  Over time the shelves will become deschevled again, but a strong baseline has been established which will ensure future tidying jobs will be exponentially faster.

Logic, cold and dead, tends to be my cranial path to nirvana.

What can be done with the tangible (tools and screws and such) can be done with the intangible, like market information.  The key is to dispose of the information which is garbage (most opinions and news) and to compartmentalize the enormous pool of quality data (ticks and orders and bits).

Data, assigning numerical values to the very human interactions that take place on the exchange, is our best attempt to understand the markets which infallibly carry the ubiquitous risk of pandemonium.

And that’s why you need to consistently exercise your ability to steel your nerves and rely on the cold and dead, objective judgement.  Then, when you need it most, your mental muscles are fit and prepared.

Ryan Holiday (one of the greatest thinkers of our time) says learning from your own mistakes is the easy part; learning from the mistakes of others is the real challenge.  He also did this write up on John D. Rockefeller, which is an example of poise amid mayhem.

As year-end approaches, the groundwork needed for success becomes paramount.  The behind-the-scenes hustle that makes the up front game look simple, even perhaps easy.

Friendly reminder: Tuesday is December 1st.  Feel free to yell out your window.

The Exodus Strategy Session is signalling calm market conditions for the upcoming week, barring any major disruption.  That means you ought to have plenty of capacity to tackle that project you’ve been meaning to do.  I’m giving you permission to shut down the machines and get it done.

Godspeed lads.

Exodus members, the 107th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is published.  Go check it out!

Yes, the GARP Portfolio inside Exodus was adjusted in Summer ’16, June to be specific, for a Donald Trump victory.  That means the 15 stocks inside the portfolio, selected for their reasonable pricing and potential for growth, were geared toward ‘Making America Great Again’ mainly by concentrating into domestic basic materials plays.

Politics aside, the stated purpose of iBankCoin is to create a place where the aggressive pursuit of happiness via egregious stock market winship is nourished.  Often times the biggest wins in business and investing come from a shift in power, changing laws, etc.

There is something to be said about shelving your emotions and objectively assessing the facts to position yourself to capitalize off change.  It is a mentality stoic practitioners exercise daily in hopes it will serve us well when it matters most.  Life is essentially a series of changes.  Nature itself is transient in nearly every aspect.  To resist is futile at best, fatal even.

GARP is up over 20% since the June adjustment, besting the S&P 500 more than three times over:

Soon an adjustment will be made to make the best of 2017.  So far, it’s shaping up to be a doozy.  We have the high probability of rate hikes paired with expensive housing, a new president, markets at all-time highs, bastard pipeline builders stretching their leaky pipe into the Missouri river, and Russians—so many Russians—prominently asserting their dominance on the world.

Are you ready for 2017?

You want to know where I see change coming?  Food prices.  Inflation is coming in a big way, in my opinion, and I intend to position myself to benefit from it.  Developing…

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher in a balanced session.  At 8:30am Advance Trade Goods Balance and Business Inventories were released and had no impact on prices.

There are no other economic events on the calendar today, however USA markets will close at 1:15pm today, allowing participants to enjoy their family and perhaps fuel the Black Friday consumerism machine.

On Tuesday we opened gap up and printed a weak high before going into balance and drifting into posturing Wednesday of sorts where price worked hard lower early on only to drift sideways into Thanksgiving.  The drift became one of the upward variety during Thanksgiving.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4850.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4842 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4866.75 to target the open gap up at 4875 then continue higher to take out the weak high 4884.75 and target the other open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 somehow a liquidation triggers.  Price sustains below 4839 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 4808.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, and as we approach cash open the market is probing its Tuesday low.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders were much stronger than expected and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were inline with expectations.

The key event today comes at 2pm when the FOMC will release Minutes from their November 1-2 meeting.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up we printed a weak, double high at 4884.75 before going range extension down.  Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Tuesday open, initiative relative to Monday close) defended the Monday high and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push the Monday gap fill down to 4853.25.  Buyers show up here and work up though the Tuesday weak high 4884.75 to target the open gap up at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4875 then take out 4888 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target 4900 century mark.  Stretch target is 4918.

Hypo 3 sellers trigger a liquidation after a gap-and-go lower sustains trade below 4850 setting up a move to target 4833.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Since a few of you are starting up your alcoholism already, ensuring your place at Thanksgiving dinner as the insufferable racist Uncle who smells like mutt shit, let’s take a look inside the Exodus Strategy session (ESS), shall we?

BEHOLD, An Executive Summary tailored for the clear and sharp:

Somewhere around June 2016 an adjustment was made to the index model inside ESS so that an extremely high reading (triggered when ‘bias score’ > Exodus Fundamental Score) becomes a bullish signal.

Also, as of tomorrow, close-of-market the Exodus 36-month Hybrid Overbought cycle, WHICH IS BULLISH, will complete.  How sublime, when my model, Exodus, and The Turkey Gods all converge into a bullish signal?

Quite sublime really, the feeling of equanimity as all the distracting noise melts away.

I hope one day some of you can simplify your approach to trading, allowing only that which is raw and market generated to shape your bias.  To attain this clarity in all of life’s decisions, really.

“Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, of all external events,”

In Summary, with Love and Grace from the turkey gods, Exodus wins again.

Everything we know and love about the internet is under attack from the social media triumvirate (Facebook, Twitter, Google) who intend to aggressively curate the voice of the people to make sure it conforms with their agenda.

Mark Zuckerberg and his cohort of SJW scientists want to unleash their potent propaganda tool in China.  Yes, try your censor drone on the People’s Republic first.

New York Times reported after hours Tuesday that Facebook created a censorship tool to enhance their appeal to President Xi Jinping of China.

Said tool was likely refined during the American election, where droves Facebook users deep inside the echo chamber were damn near certain their low-energy candidate would win President.

China seems like the sort of country who would make better use of the Facebook censor wall to ensure their citizens behave themselves.

‘Several’ employees who built the censor wall became unnerved and left the company after realizing they created a horrible suppression device:

Unveiling a new censorship tool in China could lead to more demands to suppress content from other countries. The fake-news problem, which has hit countries across the globe, has already led some governments to use the issue as an excuse to target sites of political rivals, or shut down social media sites altogether.

Over the summer, several Facebook employees who were working on the suppression tool left the company, the current and former employees said.

The news caused a bit of volatility for the social media giant Tuesday evening, with shares near their session low after hours:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, right up to the 10/25 session low (current swing high date) before finding a responsive seller.

The economic calendar is light today.  At 11:30am we have a 4-week T-bill auction and at 1pm a 5-year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  After a gap up to start the week, buyers drove the market higher.  A responsive seller showed up right around where the strong sellers existed back on 11/10, but said seller was ultimately overrun and squeezed into the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the Monday high 4862.  Buyers defend up here and we work higher to take out overnight high 4881.50 and target 4884.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 4853.25 then take out overnight low 4853.  Look for buyers down at 4850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger selling pushes the market back down to 4833 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 trend up, take out overnight high 4881.50 and target the open gap at 4888.  Consolidate above these prices before a second leg up to 4917.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

The health of the Iranian regime is in peril after two outbreaks of the highly contagious H5N8 bird flu virus were reported by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) Monday.  Reuters with the numbers:

The outbreaks killed some 5,600 birds out of a total of nearly 283,500 on the farms, the OIE said in a report posted on its website. All animals were killed or slaughtered.

“A post outbreak investigation to trace the source of infection is ongoing to detect the probable spread and circulation of this subtype,” the ministry said in the report.

The H5N8 virus has never been found in humans but has infected wild birds and farms in several European countries as well as in Israel over the past weeks.

The disease infests the inhumane pens our brothers and sisters the chickens are forced to live in.  The sunshine rarely touches their backs.  They’re beaks are clipped to prevent chicken-on-chicken ultra violence.  Their cute little feet can hardly touch the ground because they’re packed in so tight.

These chickens were freed from their Iranian overlords by a highly contagious disease and are now living on a free range with the gods.  Let it be a lesson to the murderous Iranians.  Treat you chickens better you savages.

ARISE CHICKEN

Our fearless Leader is at it again, revealing delicious and powerful products that will free us from the tyrannical Big Oil regime.  And while Big Oil and their goons in blue teargas and fire hose protesters of the nonsensical Dakota Access oil pipe, Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is on the fast-track to creating an energy independence option for freedom seekers around the world.

On Thursday, November 17th after shareholders cast an 80% vote in favor of the $2 billion merger of Tesla and Solar City, Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) said the solar roof was likely to cost less than a normal roof.

“It’s looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account,” our Leader said.  “So the basic proposition would be, ‘Would you like a roof that looks better than a normal roof, lasts twice as long, costs less, and by the way generates electricity?’ It’s like, why would you get anything else?”

Indeed, why would you consider installing any other roof?  Soon the suburban landscape will be transformed into a grid of energy generating glass roofs.  The future is looking bright, thanks to the fast-paced disruption being speared into the hearts of earth-hating oil elitists by our Leader.

Tesla is offering a logical way for every home to generate its own power.  Said roofing material will be built in Buffalo, thus aligning America’s Most Innovative Technology Company with Premier Trump’s call to Make America Great Again.

While the company is hesitant to reveal the actual cost of the roof, we can all rest assured knowing Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) says they will cost less than the installation of a conventional roof.

Writer’s note: I am long Tesla shares and continue to buy Tesla shares regularly.  I may initiate a position in Solar City as well.  Finally, I believe Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is a mortal deity who will save planet earth from the oil patriarchs before he achieves immortality and roams outer space.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Friday range in balanced trade which is giving way to buying as we approach USA cash open.

The economic calendar is light today with only 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week featured a Monday of selling followed by a rally for the remainder of the week.  The Dow lagged behind and the Russell lead.  Here is the performance of each major USA index last week:

On Friday, an early probe higher discovered responsive sellers on the NASDAQ and once it pushed down to its CVPOC at 4808 it spent the rest of the day in a churn around those prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4804.25.  A probe below last Friday’s low 4803 reveals responsive buyers and two way trade ensues around the value at 4809.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, make a push above Friday high 4840.50 and target 4846.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers push up to 4870.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers fill overnight gap 4808.25, breach overnight/Friday lows 4803 and trigger a liquidation down to 4768 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: