Crooked Media: How A Reuters “Tweak” Keeps Hillary in The Lead

Two weeks ago Reuters penned an article explaining how they changed the structure of the Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll.  The modifications were enacted July 29th–just two days after Trump was seen taking a lead over Clinton for the first time, see below:

This was just after the RNC Convention and mid-#DNCLeak, but before Trump’s “second amendment people” faux pas.  Pollsters noticed something about the results.  They found so many people were voting “Neither/Other” that the results were under reporting of who voters would ultimately choose come election day.

Here is the explanation Reuters gives:

“…in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of ‘Neither’ candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race.”

Without ‘Neither’ as a option, the polls skewed back into Hillary’s favor, pushing her to 40% and Trump down to 35%.

Trump supporters consider this a prime example of mainstream media presenting a deceptive narrative where Hillary Clinton maintains “front runner” status.

Whether or not five front page hit pieces against Trump is a crooked attempt by mainstream media to affect the outcome of the election or just journalists trying to sell subscriptions, the odds book I trust shows Trump losing by a landslide.  And unless the FiveThirtyEight stats dramatically swing, I expect to we will all be welcoming HRC back into the White House come November:

Telsa rumors about the 100 kWh battery “are accurate” according to a research note out from Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research. The battery will be one of the key differentiating features between the Gen 3 and the premium Model S and Model X.

The new battery will give owners over 300 miles of range according to a research report Chowdhry sent to clients.

“Our research indicates that 100 kWh battery back will easily push the Model S range to >300 miles, and that will be a significant milestone for the Industry.”

According to the report, Tesla will build two battery packs to create a production efficiency better than other electric car rivals.

Trip Chowdhry has been following Tesla since 2009 and regularly meets with Tesla owners.  His field work leads some investors to consider him a leading authoritative figure on Tesla Motors.

Tesla has made no official announcement regarding their plan to manufacture the 100 kWh super battery.  Shares of TSLA are currently trading around $226 bucks.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up though all prior highs overnight before coming into two-way trade at the new levels.

On the economic docket we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week the NASDAQ marked time, trading sideways with an upward drift, all week long.  Price worked slightly higher.  Here are the returns of each major index last week:

On Friday we printed a normal variation up.  Price went right down to Thursday’s low but failed to test below it, instead printing a weak-looking 2-day low along the 4787 mark.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4804.25.  From here sellers continue lower to take out overnight low 4805 then test Friday’s low and close the gap down to 4781.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers cannot close overnight gap.  Instead buyers show up around 4808 and continue working the market higher, up through overnight high 4818.50 and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through the open gap at 4781.25 and continues lower.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4767.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Part of becoming a competent trader is getting to know yourself.  To shorten the learning curve, it makes sense to find others in the industry and study their ways.  Usually this method results in success early on.  Being completely new, you attribute the success to your mentor.

For a while this might work, following the lead of someone else.  Once you think you have a grip on the method you may decide to take your own trades.  You experience success.

A lack of friction early on can be trouble because it invites your ego to show up.  Your ego will tell you how brilliant you are.  It will also be the first to pile on criticism when you slip up.

Ego will also propel you to take a trade when you have no edge whatsoever.  “But look at that guy–he is cleaning up out there!  You’re just going to sit here!?”  Marcellus Wallace puts it bluntly:

“That’s pride fucking with you.  Fuck pride.”

I have no edge coming into the week. After 4 weeks of bias (the first two bullish, then bearish, then bullish again) the model I use went neutral.

There are no major economic events this week either, unless you think the Consumers Price Index can jolt the sleepy indices.

Writers note: if I am overlooking a major upcoming event that may move this slow market please let me know in the comments below.

Perhaps you have an edge coming into the week.  Low volatility trending markets might be your feeding ground.  That is great, you understand your method and need to execute at your best right now.

But will you have the courage to do nothing when the time comes?

Exodus members – the 92nd Edition of Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Go check it out!

The monotony of Ruby Tuesday’s earnings call was disrupted when a prank caller by the name of Buddy Fox asked the company’s CEO JJ Buettgen if business was affected after zoo keepers shot and killed Harambe last May.

Below is the transcript.  This is top tier pranking; the caller even said he worked for the Geneva Roth Holding Corporation which is a fictional firm from the movie “Wall Street”

Operator: “Our next question comes from Buddy Fox with Geneva Roth Holding Corporation.”

Buddy Fox: “I just have one question. Do you think your revenues are negatively impacted by Harambe’s death and if yes, do you have any plans to mitigate it?”

JJ Buettgen: “Excuse me, can you repeat your question please? Impacted by what?”

Fox: “By Harambe’s death and if yes, do you have plans to mitigate it?”

Buettgen: “I am sorry. I don’t know we have a bad connection. I couldn’t quite hear the question.”

Operator: “He has lost connection.”

See also – AVENGE ME: Vigil and Protests Planned for Slain Gorilla, Harambe

Listen to prank call by clicking play below.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring abnormally low range and volume.  This is the second time this week Globex has been so quiet it registered as abnormal.  Price held yesterday’s range on a balanced trading session. At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came in well-below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories and U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a Normal Day, the statistically rare day-type that we also printed on Monday.  These tend to occur near inflection points.  After opening gap up the market drove to new highs early on and found a sharp responsive seller.  The rest of the session traded inside the first hour’s range, earning Thursday the Normal designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work the market lower, down through overnight low 4796 then continue working lower to target the open gap down at 4781.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4805.25 and work price up to 4819 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4781.25 and probes the week’s lows, below 4766.25 triggering a liquidation down to 4756.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

When the Russians aren’t doping their Olympians with a cocktail of stimulants and steroids, they’re busy hacking away at the Democratic party.

There were some meta-bits on the #DNCLeak that have been taken as 100% certain proof that Russian hackers were behind the 15,000+ email grab from DNC servers.  Since said internet giblets showed up, it only makes sense to run with the Russian hacker theme and ignore the readily available means to skip and jump IP addresses across the globe with simple tools like the tor network.

Whether the emails were leaked to Julian Assange by Russians or Seth Rich, officials are saying the hack may have been much wider than initially believed.

The widening scope of the attack has prompted the F.B.I. to broaden its investigation, and agents have begun notifying a long list of Democratic officials that the Russians may have breached their personal accounts.

The main targets appear to have been the personal email accounts of Hillary Clinton’s campaign officials and party operatives, along with a number of party organizations.

Officials have acknowledged that the Russian hackers gained access to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is the fund-raising arm for House Democrats, and to the Democratic National Committee, including a D.N.C. voter analytics program used by Mrs. Clinton’s presidential campaign.

But the hack now appears to have extended well beyond those groups, and organizations like the Democratic Governors’ Association may also have been affected, according to Democrats involved in the investigation.

Democrats say they are bracing for the possibility that another batch of damaging or embarrassing internal material could become public before the November presidential election.

As if being a dick-sucking politician behind closed doors is not embarrassing enough, Democrats are now being held in suspense by F.B.I. investigators who expect the curtain to be drawn open a bit wider, deeply exposing the inner workings of a career designed for sociopaths and liars.

Members of the Antioch Road to Glory International Ministries are taking a stand for Christ and Trump, according to the church’s Facebook page.

The historically black church has collectively endorsed Donald Trump, and last Sunday they hosted ‘A Day of Endorsement’ to support the Republican Presidential candidate.

Thursday morning CNN brought Pastor Thomas Rogers to discuss the following Facebook comment:

Pastor Rogers defended the statement further saying Hillary is, “dangerous and reckless, and her past track record is a great indication that she is not fit to run this nation.”

The Clinton campaign is paying close attention to the church and their against the grain support for Trump.  They have issued statements in response to claims made by the church including a reminder that Clinton worked with the Mothers of The Movement to curtail intercity violence.

Pastor Thomas Rogers wants to give the new guy a chance and thinks America needs to ditch her abusive ex come November.

Donald Trump claims U.S. President Barack Obama and Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton are the “co-founders” of ISIS.

The assertion was made Wednesday night in Florida where Donald Trump held a rally. He defended his remarks that both Obama and Clinton were ISIS founders during an interview with CNBC Thursday morning:

“Is there something wrong with saying that?”

“Why – are people complaining that I said he was the founder of ISIS? All I do is tell the truth, I’m a truth teller.”

The DNC issued a statement saying Donald Trump should apologize:

Donald Trump should apologize for his outrageous, unhinged and patently false suggestions on the founding of ISIS,”

The statisticians at FiveThirtyEight have aggressively adjusted their prediction of who will win the presidency:

In a Bloomberg interview this morning Doug Kass reaffirmed his prediction that Donald Trump would withdraw his candidacy for President.

Kass has been saying Trump would drop out on his reverse-typeset blog since late-June.  I have taken a screenshot of the Doug Kass Blog ® and affixed it below, so you can see what an ugly website looks like:

Mr. Kass doubled down on the dropout rhetoric just last Tuesday:

Some six weeks after writing that, I now believe a Trump withdrawal is a more likely than ever. In fact, this might even represent a new baseline assumption for investors.

Now, there are certain things — a degree of respect, a solid political organization, a thorough thought process, etc. — that many believe all presidential candidates need. But arguably, Trump’s tone and tactics don’t conform to any of these.

Kass cites a lack of tone and tactics as the reason Trump will drop out which sounds like analyst-speak for ‘lack of political correctness’.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, a Financial Planning office down in Palm Beach, Florida.  He is also a writer for TheStreet.com, a publicly traded website whose shares you can purchase for $1.25 on the open market.