Nothing surprises me anymore. So like water starts dripping from the ceiling, my first instinct isn’t to fall on my knees and wave my hands around saying, “Why? Does this? Happen…to me?” like I witnessed today. I just think for a minute, then grab a bucket and make a good guess of the tools I’d need to stop water from leaking thru the ceiling. Then go in the attic and take a look around.

Watch my big dumb head on the roofing nails that often pepper attic ceilings like some kind of medieval rack. Shine around looking for water then stop it. If a part is needed, run up to the heckin’ nearest hardware store and buy it.

They don’t have it? What DO they have that can stop the leak, even if only temporarily? Adapt.

The line is long as heck. An excellent opportunity to check in with your posture and breathing. Even easier now because nobody can see if your lips pucker when you draw your abs in (they won’t if you’re shwifty). The total is $11.76. Pay $12. Cashier not used to making change, doesn’t give a quarter back but two dimes and four pennies. No problemo. It all goes in the coin jar next to the key hook anyhow. Create efficient systems for everything.

It is hardt coming from a formal accounting education, accumulating tons of street smarts along the way, to being a man who live in a van down by the river. Yet, over time, when convictions and cock remain strong, it become immediately apparent that shit is destined to be handled if you’re around.

Take it as it comes. And for the love of vanity keep it sexy.

All that ‘how to be a they/them’ guff aside, in fact casting aside all human reason aside, these new heckin’ algorithms I am privy to thru my early access to Stocklabs are whispering bullishly in ma’ears. Who am I to question the cold, dead truth of an algorithm? A bird?

I am most certainly not a bird. I’m a man. I shore up shelters and clear dead trees and wrestle alligators. I read fiction and non-fiction and feel empathy for others. I gather nutrition from Costco and cook badass meals 2-3 times a day. I extract fiat american dollars at a steady clip from the global financial complex then convert said fiat into real assets like power tools and steel. Not the kind of they/them you’d ever consider trifling with, if seen IRL.

While I can almost always be seen carrying a sunny disposition and a fat stack of green rags, there’s a sparkle in my left eye that warns passerbys that I might could just make to kill.

She/hers regularly tell me I look like their favorite teevee cereal killers. Which physically, I don’t, but I get it. It’s the way I wiggle my words.

Best you queue up a Lyft when I arrive, lest your she/her find herself caught up in some RAUL prose of the persuasive variety. Things get awkward. But what’s to gain?

Not much.

I am supes bullish into the Fed Minutes. Into Thanksgiving. And clean into December.

Ciao,

Raul Santos, November 22nd, 2020

And now, the Weekly Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/23/20 – 11/27/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Watch for markets to drift higher into the holiday week. Watch for Fed Minutes out Wednesday afternoon to accelerate whatever price action is prevailing prior to the release.

U.S. Markets will be closed Thursday in observation of Thanksgiving.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy week. Little directional discovery from equity indices. The bullish divergence by the Russell 2000 suggests risk tolerance is running high.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy continues to trade on its own planet—way out in front last week. Utilities and Staples weak is a good indication that investors are not taking a flight to safety. Bulls however would like to see the key Tech sector a bit stronger.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows muted for a second week. No major skew.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Working the hybrid overbought signal

Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on Monday, November 16^rd at the end of the day. That signal runs until close of business Tuesday, December 1^st.

I am sticking with the 12-month algo.

Taking a look at the past performance, we can see that this signal has been slightly bullish, historically:

With 85 samples, the signal has an average return of nearly 0.25% and nearly a 65% win rate.

Since the signal fired last Monday, markets have drifted a bit lower. If SPY reverts to its old statistics, we are looking at 2.25% worth of upside between now and the end of December 1^st.

These stats have me bullish heading into month-end.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Drift higher into the holiday week. Watch for Fed Minutes out Wednesday afternoon to accelerate whatever price action is prevailing prior to the release. Then expect a choppy, low volume session Friday.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors choppy on the highs, Transports flirting with a breakout

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are lingering up beyond their multi-year range a bit. The longer price can hold up here, the more likely a break-out becomes. However, our primary expectation is for sellers to defend the top of range and eventually begin working price back down into balance.

See below:

Semiconductors are sort of chopping along in big ranges up near all-time highs. It is difficult to say whether they are currently in a discovery up phase. It could be a mini balance. The longer time frame definitely continues to be discovery up. However, this being the 4^th leg of the phase, it can become a bit tricky up here. A fresh leg higher could be the start of something much bigger, or we could be close to an intermediate term top.

We don’t know.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Monday, November 16^th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, December 1^st, end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Don’t be distracted by emotions like anger, envy, resentment. These just zap energy and waste time.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Trade simple, cultivate visceral indifference

Comments »

Silly I thought it would take lifting the cost of gas up to twenty a gallon to accomplish it. Not a spooky virus. But here we are.

Best Practices and other adaptations being made necessary by the novel corona virus are widening the gulch between the privileged and the not.

A trip to the movie theater has maintained a relatively low barrier since not long after the talkies started gracing screens across the country. According to USA Today, the national average cost of a movie ticket in 2018 was $9.11, marking the first time the average price has eclipsed $9.00. For most of the 1990s, tickets sold for an average of less than $5 apiece, and dating back to the 1960s, many Americans could go to the movies for less than a buck.

The concessions are a shamless gouge, but sneaking in snacks and a drink never required ninja-like instincts. A good time at the movies was accessible by all but the truly desperate. Not any more. Theaters are now being retooled for groups of twenty who can afford to shell out $149 to $349 to see a new release.

These changes amount to what has always been commonplace in the more uppity parts of town—clubs. Places that only allow for like private bowling, or golfing or tennis or swimming or whatever else it is waspy Americans do.

Those heckin’ millenials were doing too much roaming around.

Drifting from one hip city to another, breaking up their freewheeling apartment hopping with three day festivals and Art Basels and backpacking adventures through LatAm. They had to be sequestered to a square of surburban land and made to toil mindlessly on leaves while they reproduce at a rate of 2.7 children per household until the monotony of it all buggered them into the ground.

This fate, of course, applies mostly to anyone falling below the murky upper-middle-class threshold. A shrewd $150k/year earner can still cope with the headache of travel in a pandemic and the cost for reservation of large VRBOs. The pleasure continues for the privileged.

I count myself among the privileged few. My winter docket is nearly booked solid with everything from  RVing around to all the major ski mountains to extended stay in seven bedroom, five bathroom estates boasting instagrammy vistas. Whenever a local dilettante reserves any one of the various pinky up establishments around Detroit for private event, my name is sure to be on the list. We are dead set on living. As for the big scary terrible consequences of catching C19…balls, let that fear rest on some other sap.

What is important, aside from an immense and truthful sense of gratitude for being on the right side of this situation, is to resist the urge to fight these changes being made by our leaders. Going to war for some answer to how to make it affordable for everyone to rent out movie theaters for two hours is not our job.

This is Andrew Yang’s job.

Our job is to extract as many fiat American dollars as possible from the global equity complex. Said dollars are to be converted into mobile command units. Large envoys that can deploy on short notice and access difficult terrain. Self sufficient off shoots from Mothership that boast all the modern comforts of a modern home.

Fighting the prevailing tide is a fool’s effort. Go with the flow. Love thy fate. All that good stoic stuff. Be grateful they haven’t chipped us yet and installed usb drives at the top of our spines. And that the only solid roadblock is between us and Canada.

For now there are two distinct existences crystallizing.

• The W-4 home owner: scrapes out a modest living whilst being indentured to the mortgage banks.
• The tactical capitalists: experiences jaw dropping wealth creation in the financial markets and other less liquid assets. The hoarder, vagabond or otherwise, giving orders to widen the moat and blow the bridges until we can make sense of this microscopic demon.

When will the scientists raise the all clear flag?

We don’t know. As always, we’ll take it one day at a time. Just like alcoholics.

Raul Santos, November 14^th 2020

Comments »

Not talking about having a new President here. There was a change over far more important to my livelihood and that was switching from Exodus to Stocklabs. If you stumbled into this blog expecting more election fodder you can leave now (and hopefully never come back). My stated purpose is to consistently extract as many fiat american dollars out of the global equity complex as I can while blogging about how I do it.

Things you will not find here

• assigning reason to stock market movement
• jokey banter in a New Jersey accent
• pump articles about five lettered tickers
• quick money schemes

If hubris emerges it is usually in the form of vanity or insatiable lust.

Anyhow, the regime change I am coping with is one I have struggled with in the past. New software. The world of active trading does not look kindly onto those who do not adapt though. The death of the pit trader, for example. Therefore I must continue to refine my ability to adapt and reinvent. Never resting on my laurels, no matter how well things are going.

Exodus flagged hybrid oversold on Wednesday, October 28th, nearly nailing the swing low to.the.day.

I did not see it because I transitioned to Stocklabs on the 25th. This type of event can cast doubt on the psyche of a weaker man. Then, in the heat of action, I might feel the urge to close Stocklabs and open Exodus. Then if it has conflicting signals I’m like fuck. My brain gets all its wires crossed and I start losing a sense of direction. Then there suddenly feels like there is no air in the room. There’s no air in here. I can’t breathe. I can’t breathe (RIP George Floyd). Whether these thoughts are real or imagined does not matter. You are not in a position to make objective decisions.

There are various institutions and organizations that seek to make you to feel that way. Why do you think fucking pig cops have those wretched flickering lights and blinding spotlights? They seek to disorient. When we lose our faculties we are easier to control. When layer-after-layer or bureaucracy are heaped upon a project the cognitive load is designed to deter anyone unorganized from making progress. When cable news outlets use trigger words in their headlines and fill the screens with argumentative noise while scrolling more and more information along the bottom and side they seek to evoke a panicked attention.

While there is no organization attempting to control me after I choose to use a new software, I am wrestling with the most powerful sparring partner of all—the man in the mirror. The E-G-O.

I intend to cope how I do best. Unwavering commitment, but more-so like how I commit to lines at the grocery store. The mind can run wild in the grocery queue can it not? The lady two ahead of you drops her paper coupons and they scatter across the floor. Two lines over is just a couple of dudes holding styrofoam clam shells full of prepared food. The cart behind you is fidgedy and right on your heels. They’re a member of the great american religion. The church of anxiety. We either stay in our lane, or if it becomes abundantly clear there is a better option, we make the shift. We do not jump from one line to the other then another then grimace as the line we originally chose flows better.

Well I feel better after writing all of that out. I feel bad for anyone who has even read this far. Enough of that.

The job is to plan and the plan is to trade opening bell on the NASDAQ-100. Work the open gaps in prior day range. Use the IndexModel bias to determine which direction to trade. Write a primary hypo and stick to it unless new information renders it false. Then we have a 50/50 chance of picking the right hypo from 2 or 3. Go for overnight range break and initial balance break only if a valid hypo still exists. Defend the mid if it makes sense.

Never sell the long term investments. Immortal institutions like Tesla and Amazon. Twitter and Square.

Last week alls I did was buy more bitcoin, Twitter and Costco.

There are signs of excess. The market could correct soon. We don’t know when these corrections will happen. The relief comes from knowing that they don’t matter. What does matter? Jack Dorsey. Google. Daddy Elon Musk. Progress in the name of progress and to hell with the old ways.

I’ll end on that note. Be sure to drop by in the morning and cheers to banking coin.

Raul Santos, November 8th, 2020

And now, the Weekly Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.5, medium bull*. Markets settle into a calm drift until Thursday morning when Fed Chairman Powell speaks. Expect markets to find direction late in the week after the Fed speak and carry the move into the weekend.

*IndexModel triggered extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias. See Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Gap up Monday is faded. Sellers press until late Monday then a strong rally takes hold. A series of breakaway gaps higher carry the rally through end of Thursday. Friday morning sees a sell spike that is consumed by a strong bid which eventually leads to a rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech leads the way as we see a strong risk on rotation back into equities after three consecutive weeks of risk off behavior. Utilities and Staples lagging which suggest risk appetite remains strong.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed heavy bullish after being extremely bearish the week prior. Several semiconductor industry groups up near the top of the list suggest the rally included quality areas and not just garbage like cannabis—which outperformed all other industries last week.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Transitioning into acceptance

Last week I observed several fintwit accounts expressing feelings of chaos. Loss of understanding. Disbelief. Types of emotions associated with domicide or some other form of loss. These were mostly Donald Trump supporters. However the market bewildered many a speculator as it rallied hard during the slower than usual presidential election process.

Denial can be a real risky emotion when trading.

Whether that denial continues into next week will likely in a large part be determined by the behavior of Trump. If he denies the legitimacy of the election process, his devote base is likely to do the same.  Eventually, there will be a shift away from denial and into acceptance.

Our job is not to cast judgment on these contextual observations, but merely to do our best to objectively keep them in or perspectival framework while trading.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Markets settle into a calm drift until Thursday morning when Fed Chairman Powell speaks. Expect markets to find direction late in the week after the Fed speak and carry the move into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors press into potential support, same for Transports

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports bounced off range low and appear to be compressing. If this compression continues, it will start to build energy. The eventual break could send price out of the larger multi-year balance. This is a lot of “ifs. For now, the call for balance remains.

See below:

Semiconductors found a strong bid down at their support cluster for formed a strong fourth thrust higher. Discovery up continues. The fourth thrust can be tricky. Either this could mark the end of the rally, or be the start of something much bigger.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses. The signal calls for a calm drift, perhaps with an upward bias.

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Except our own thoughts, there is nothing absolutely in our power.” – Rene Descartes

Trade simple, discipline of the mind, trade the plan

Comments »

I suppose this is what we play for. Next week carries the promise of big opportunity for the speculative class. Stick to the plan. Press the winners. Cut the losses and manage risk and all that is sacred to the active trader. If the net sum of the action starts to feel too all-or-nothing step back. Remember the markets have been here longer than any of us and they’ll still be here long after we’re gone. There is nothing personal about the numeric representation of millions of humans and algorithms interacting. It is simply information. An instant feedback on whatever position you take. There is nothing wrong with standing aside and watching the big waves from a high perch. Here’s where we stand and what we’re up against.

Yesterday was a full moon and the final day of October. November is here and winter is pressing in fast. Early this morning we hit the daylight savings shift.

U.S. election Tuesday and by night we’ll likely see extreme volatility in the futures.

FOMC announcement Thursday and non-farm payroll Friday.

I made a professional effort to off-gas the steam built up in my system last night. I menaced the town until about 5am, dressed like some psychotic masked bear ghoul. This was after taking the niece and nephew around for trick-or-treating and screening out two, mind you, two pieces of fanatic christian propaganda from their sacks. The sleazy pamphlets were formatted to seem innocent, then half way in they cast shame. I resisted the urge to go back and knock the zealots’ teethes out, instead haranguing some internet stranger in the comments section of a Fly blog. Drank enough hooch to put an ache in my spleen and now I feel purged of my anger, physically depleted and pure of mind.

(We all have our rituals)

That is all I wanted to say. Oh one last note…IndexModel is flagging Bunker Buster. This signal tends to preclude an acceleration to the downside. I’ve had a notoriously hard time day trading it. Instead I’ve shifted my approach to using Bunker Buster signals as a time to accumulate shares of my top long-term positions. This week I will be making a few buys of Twitter. I will do my best to time these instead of overly focusing on catching the lows in the market.

When the risk is high we do things the same as always—start off with a morning trading report. Work open gaps in range. Other key stats. Then go back to the sidelines. Eat the elephant, or something like that.

Raul Santos, November 1st 2020

And now for the week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.3, medium bear*. Volatility increases as price accelerates to the downside. Look for markets to eventually form a sharp, excess low and eventually rally into the week’s end. Geopolitical risk is high with U.S. elections Tuesday. Also be aware of an FOMC announcement Thursday and Non-farm payroll Friday.

*IndexModel triggered a Bunker Buster signal. See Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then a big move lower Wednesday. Thursday saw buyers attempting to reject the big sell but then Friday prices continued to slide lower.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations bearish for a third week—full on risk off move away from equities.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed extremely bearish. When this happens, we tend to see money flows continue lower for another week.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Stay innately aware of emotions into this big week

Tuesday’s election is likely to introduce extreme volatility into the marketplace. There are other big events (FOMC meeting Thursday, NFP Friday) but the election is the main factor in next week’s action. There is no need to “catch” any part of the price action leading into and immediately following the action. However, the opportunity is high. If we can keep a cool head and focus on strategy execution there is potential to extract gains rapidly. Of course the opposite is true. Keep risk management at the forefront. Remember, the market will still be here long after the election. Don’t force the action. Take it one day, one trade at a time.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors press into potential support, same for Transports

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are nearing the bottom of their established range. This market is likely to catch a bid down in these levels. Otherwise we may begin a new discovery leg lower. The more likely outcome is to remain range bound.

See below:

Semiconductors kept sliding last week and are pressing into a support cluster. Primary expectation is for it to hold. If not, like Transports, we may see a shift into discovery down.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling Bunker Buster. This signal calls for volatility to increase, with price accelerating to the downside before eventually forming a sharp low and reversing higher.

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“You will earn the respect of others if you begin by earning the respect of yourself.” – Musonius Rufus

Trade simple, love your discipline

Comments »

Internet was a strange twist in the simulation. Over the last 3,000 years or so humans have experimented with a variety of ways to organize large groups of people to cooperate. Democracy has fought like hell to be the de facto, but we’ve spent the last 240 years here in the New World experimenting with it and it is safe to say not everyone is on board.

The big vote is coming up. Who Wants To Be A President is like a game show from hell. The N-95 mask verse the autocrat. Here in Michigan, there is a huge presence of upper-middle class scum, real greasy fuckers who’ve spent their entire life sprawling every which way out from Detroit, clearing nature and plopping down 4000 square foot hovels with three acre lawns. They don’t particularly like democracy. They want a king. Maybe they are kings of their petty domains, gunning down harmless woodland creatures for sport and otherwise growing fat and paranoid in isolation.

Capitalism is not perfect but it has enough components to keep us interested. It allows for autocratic leadership, democratic and other hybrids. When paired with internet, it allows non-traditional figures to rapidly rise to power. Not through mining precious resources or enslaving a presumed lower rank. Outcasts less interested in power and money and more in humanity, humble leaders like Jack Dorsey, now oversee some of the most crucial components of society—like the big bull horn aka Twitter.

“In a prosperous democracy that is also a society of winners and losers, any may without an equalizer or at least the illusion of one is by definition underprivileged.” – Hunter S. Thompson

Jack has been playing the slow game with Twitter, not even giving into the visceral demands for an edit button. How simple would it be to code in an edit button? Fuck you. Delete your tweet and start over. Not giving into the demands for an edit button is what separates the Jack Dorseys from lesser, more harmful leaders, leaders who’ve addicted themselves to the roar of a crowd.

I’ve withdrawn from conventional society long ago. A derelict futures trader, street charmer and vagabond operating on the fringe of society. Foraging for mushrooms and chasing snowstorms around the Rockies. I do not reside in some bourgeois cube, commuting to 50k worth of desk servitude. I roam with the outcasts, the career drifters and odd jobbers.

This fringe life allows a clear perspective on what is temporary—sovereign nations, borders, politicians and movements. And what is immortal—Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Twitter, Amazon, bitcoin and so on.

I couldn’t care less who is President, judge or sheriff. All that matters is quarterly earnings from Big Tech and the decisions and health of Big Tech leaders. They are steering the most crucial ships in this tumultuous simulation. Grown up hackers. Quite the twist, yes yes? Much more eloquent than anything Jerry Bruckheimer could conjure up.

Bullish Big Tech. Bearish Nations, U.S. fiat and anyone whose name is on a fucking lawn sign.

Raul Santos, October 29th 2020

Comments »

This weekend the whole pandemic really started triggering me. Your humble market practitioner and adventurer RAUL has survived some exterme-ose events in his day. High speed skateboard wrecks, scaling buildings without alerting the law-dogs, Hawaiian rip-tides, mountain plane crashes and so on. My thirst for adventure is rarely quenched. I thrive outside the comfort zone and sitting around watching the hecking Netflix is b-o-r-i-n-g. I need something higher octane or I risk the old mistake of seeking thrills in the financial markets.

Do you know how dumb it is to try and catch a jag from trading? I can most certainly assure you that will result in financial ruin.

Trading is trading is trading. You sit down. Plan your trades, trade your plan then you go eat lunch. There is nothing exciting about it.

I regularly salvage a day—going from down 5-600 bucks to ending up 1600. It does nothing to me emotionally or physically. I’d feel the exact same if the day ended right where it was initially, down -600. Money is merely a means to politely being able to say no to people. I can turn a trick just as easily downtown, or pour some cement or design a plant wall. Diversify your income streams lads. Do this as early and often as possible. It goes miles towards cultivating the indifferent strength of a hardened speculator.

Capitalism is the game. It is not perfect. But it rewards the callous. You don’t have to be a dick. You’re better off being a crocodile. Go experiment with looking like a log for a few days then snapping into high speed action—making to kill your prey in short order. Capitalism.

Switching over to Stocklabs from here on out. I had the pleasure of catching up with our dear pal The Fly last week via telephone. He gave me the grande tour and I’ll tell you what—StockLabs is the nuts and the shaft. Thursday afternoon, after closing out the SQQQ position taken early Monday, I’m sitting inside Stocklabs, on the Livefloor, watching sentiment in real time, and it became abundantly clear a bid was about to press into the market. The data is intuitive. I traded the bounce and that was it. I’m hooked.

This week’s Strategy Session looks mostly the same as any other one except now it is powered by Stocklabs. I may add some information to the report in the future, but for now I am tiredt.

I am bullish into month-end, into the full-moon halloween, and I am considering dressing up like some kind of real horror show and terrorizing the locals.\

As always, TBD.

Raul Santos, October 25th 2020

And now, the 309th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.60, medium bull*. Expect a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then watch for GDP Thursday morning then big tech earnings Thursday afternoon to put some direction into the markets heading into the weekend.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] BULLISH bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big sell Monday. Downward pressure through Thursday morning then a minor relief rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations bearish for a second week. Key Tech sector under pressure while Utilities see strength.

caution bulls

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Clear bullish bias into month-end

IndexModel is flagging eRCS bullish after being bearish last week. There are no other conflicting signals coming out of the Exodus quant. Clear bullish bias into month-end.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors continue leg up, Transports continue balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Nothing new for Transports. They remain balanced.

See below:

Semiconductors are consolidating, slightly drifting lower, but there appears to be some logical support below and discovery up continues to be the call.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme rose colored sunglasses. This bullish bias calls for a calm drift, with a slight upward bias.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5^th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19^th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All cruelty springs from weakness.” – Seneca

Trade simple, examine your anger

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Closed out my SQQQ position last Monday, locking in the about -20% loss but felt victorious after seeing that big rally happen. Bids held up the market until mid-Wednesday. Chop and downside was the theme into the weekend. I’ve been running around in the woods, stirring up a bit of unrest amongst the nearby farmers as I seek a clear picture of the American Dream. All-in-all this idle time in the woods has me feeling a bit like Cougar (Top Gun, 1986) unable to reengage. Now my terminal is telling me it has radar lock and the beeping won’t stop until I click the buttons to take the shot.

We’re really in the meat of it all now aren’t we? Fed Chairman J.Powell is due out Monday at 8am and that alone is enough to unsettle the speculator class. What in the name of fixed-up banking could be urgent enough to call attention second thing Monday morning? This wasp has something to say and the timing robots do too—all while autumn is taking a turn into darkness, the spiders are pressing into the warm shelter of Mothership and the big vote, that nilla wafer’s worth of democracy, is in the oven.

There is a joker in the deck this week. Daddy-o Elon, mankind’s last hope for a technocratic future, is set to report earnings Wednesday over at his main outfit Tesla. Enough obsession is given to the man and his prospects that his numbers might be enough to turn the whole damned equity complex.

Bearish until we hear what Dad has to say. Will initiate a fresh SQQQ some time Monday.

Raul Santos, October 18th, 2020

And now for this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.10, neutral*. Choppy Monday, then look for sellers to take control of the tape, working price lower into the weekend.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] BEARISH bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big gap up and rally Monday. Consolidation Through Wednesday morning then selling pressure for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed rotations. Staples and Utilities seeing inflows, suggesting an increase in risk aversion.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows muted, but skewed slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Mixed Signals until Tuesday

IndexModel is flagging RCS bearish for the first time since June 14^th. The current Exodus bullish overbought cycle runs through end-of-day Monday. With these signals crossed my convictions remain low. However I more heavily weight the reading from IndexModel therefore I am coming into the week slightly bearish and my bearishness will increase into Tuesday.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors continue leg up, Transports continue balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports remain balanced.

See below:

Semiconductors are holding onto and continuing their discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling rose colored sunglasses. This bearish bias suggests subtle decay under the surface of otherwise strong indices. Calls for price to move lower over the next five trading days.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5^th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19^th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows.” – Epictetus

Trade simple, always be learning

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I have been plagued by overconfidence my entire life. There was nothing wrong with the bearish call I made several weeks back. It had an okay foundation. Not great, but a helluva lot better than some of the structures I’ve seen built by other speculators. But dammit, errors beget more errors and my first error was tuning out a few weeks ago and resting on the laurels of my convictions without monitoring the systems that brought me to a place of consistency.

Instead I headed out east and spent three days on the hunt for red October. I became more fascinated with the color red than is perhaps normal, wandering up the gentle hills of Vermont seeking visual treasure and perhaps a bit of spiritual enlightenment.

Which is fine as long as I pull up Exodus and check out what the thousands of sensors Le Fly has positioned throughout the global financial complex are seeing. The Fly built a fucking machine that doesn’t blink. It doesn’t waste time, reading the opinions of traders or thumbing through instagram videos. It stays on task and I didn’t even have the decency to show up and listen to the thing. This is not fine.

On Monday night, September 28th, Exodus tipped its hand, not-so-subtly inferring that bulls were back in the driver’s seat. Part of me was paying attention but apparently not enough to correct my position:

this week is setting up to be a real barn burner of a rally

and I'm out of position… they're likely gonna keep the squeeze on tomorrow and at that point they might as well squeeze right into Q4

I need to see another daily candle before I do anything

— RAUL (@IndexModel) September 28, 2020

Okay enough of this loathing. A man’s life is too brief to spend any more time hosting a pity party. I am out of position and the last ten trading sessions have affirmed that beyond reasonable doubt. Come Monday I will cut the wretched SQQQ position I took on several weeks back. As of now it sits down a cool -19.48% and I suspect it could be worse by Monday morning.

I will work Monday and perhaps Tuesday but then I am going into the woods to help Elder Raul do some lumber jacking.

There is so much I’d like to say about Michigan being at the epicenter of another national news story, about these bugaloo bunyon and the other butt fuck boys, but I will simply state that it does not surprise me they were operating up here in the murder mitten. I traverse these lands far and wide, moving rocks and wood in a wheel-like manner from the main sprocket Detroit. I encounter these “militia” psychos constantly. They are a dumb and depraved, angry lot, tailgating and flying big flags with snakes and swear words and the like. They want to be left along, yet they fly giant flags…figure that one out. Pair that with an intelligent and strong female governor, leading a state split right down the middle politically, and you have the michelin recipe for extremism.

Your humble boy Raul is an extremist of sorts, bent on never working for anyone, and for that matter, working as little as possible. I’d rather read books and sit by the warm glow of a fire. Or swim laps. Or cavort around the city spreading cheer. This state breeds extremists, man.

So that’s it. I had a sound reason to be bearish. I neglected all the signals at my disposal telling me my reasoning was wrong. Then I committed the fatal error of staying wrong. If it were not for my risk management, this could have been a major disaster. I am sorry. It feels shitty being out of position and I’ll do my absolute best to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

Raul Santos, October 11th, 2020

And now, here is this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.7, medium bull*. Expect a calm drift through the beginning of the week. Then watch the big bank earnings out Wednesday morning to put some upward motion to index prices.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Calm and upward through mid-Tuesday, then a sharp sell into Tuesday close. The rest of the week was a strong rally.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Strong, sector-wide rotation upward.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish with a broad spectrum of industry groups faring well.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Exodus tipped its hand on September 28th

Really upset to have missed the big Hybrid Change % move that happened back on September 28^th. That was the subtle statistic that should have made any bearish convictions vanish.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors new leg up, Transports stay balanced

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are above their pivot point, nestled in their multi-year range.

See below:

Semiconductors negated that island top candle we’ve been watching for the last few weeks and began a fresh leg of discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme rose colored sunglasses. This bias calls for a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5^th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19^th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When you’re among peaceful, generous, happy people, you’re inclined to feel happy and peaceful yourself.” – Thubten Yeshe

Trade simple, surround yourself with kind and virtuous peers

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About two or three weeks back I started feeling off, cognitively. I have been out of position since, mentally. I haven’t had a good sit in a while, and to be frank I’ve been working too hardt.

That is why in an hour I am scheduled to have my nose hole probed and mucus submitted for COVID-19 testing. Packing up my shit and heading to Vermont after that. To chase the fall colors. The hunt for red October, if you will.

I haven’t escaped the fish tank since February and I feel sick in the brain.

Physically I have the vegetarian strength of 10 flesh eaters. Every morning a wake up with a cock as hard as angle iron that serves as an alarm clock around 5:45am. I fast until about 10am then take coffee like I take women; hot, Black and strong. My sinuses are so clear, my sense of smell so acute I can tell which neighbor is doing laundry by the stench of their exhaust. I can smell a cigarette smoker five cars ahead. My hair and beard are long and my skin is olive. My poops cut off so cleanly I needn’t wipe. My urine is clear and the whites of my eyeballs are hauntingly bright. My muscles are all shiny and curvy and nestled in the perfect amount of body hair.

But my mind is off.

Therefore I need to head into the woods and sit and listen to the way the wind bends the trees. Maybe eat some mushrooms and share a table with the pagan gods. LEGALIZED IT.

No trading until then. Also no Sunday Exodus Strategy Session because I will not be back from the woods until mid-week.

Until then, I remain long my fastidiously groomed selection of true corporate leadership: TSLA, TWTR, SQ, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, BYND and so on.

Also I have a giant anchor holding said fastidious portfolio in place (or worse) via SQQQ. I may cut the rope on that one from the road. You’ll have to follow me on Noble Jack’s Twitter for that update (@indexmodel).

Until we correspond again, I remain.

curiously,

Raul Santos, September 30th, 2020

 

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The purpose of this Sunday blog entry is to inform you all of my five day stock market forecast while also making a few program notes. First the programming notes. For 305 weeks or about 5.8 years I have put out a report on Sunday somewhere here at iBankCoin—usually behind the paywall. It was a task I reluctantly took over from another anonymous twitter trader named ChessNwine. ChessNwine went full nuclear around 5.8 years ago when we started all meeting each other in real life. The thought of the veil being lifted terrified the lad, he high tailed it out of here and blocked ever one of us.

The show had to go on.

I had no desire to put out a Weekly Strategy Session like ChessNwine did. His was long as hell and peppered with dozens of tickers he deemed bullish or bearish. It was all around not suited to my style of trading. I rebuilt the report to suit my interests—day trading index futures.

Since the amount of people interested in all the work, work, bloody self discovery, work and other work needed to be a consistently profitable futures trader is extremely small, the weekly report became wildly unpopular.

Ocassionally people would ask us to do little things to it, like fix the formatting of the damn thing so it was actually readable on a mobile phone. Little things that were beyond my abilities as an internet person. I am just a humble trader and a heck of a gardener and beyond that I rest easy on the fact that I am a beautiful man. Being beautiful makes life easy. I simply show up places, looking beautiful, and enough money comes my way to supplement and hard months I have out in the futures markets. The fixes were never made.

The report is now slated for retirement. It will no longer be tasked with preparing the report once we upgrade to Stocklabs. Which is fine. Stocklabs is shaping up to be a really badass tool and I cannot wait to see it move out of beta.

That said, the heckin’ report made me. Accountability for my research elevated my trading performance in a meaningful way. I mean, be honest, anyone reading this unpopular blog even casually over the last four years or so has to be like, “damn, that fucker Raul was right again.” I have been bowling strikes for years, hitting doubles and triples with a high average and I nailed a grand slam on Tesla, Match and Square.

I steered my flock away from crack head ticker lottery and into big tech. These weren’t massive feats on their own, but collectively they made a mint. Still, my popularity on the internet has never been like real life. The old Raul charisma just doesn’t sink its hooks in the reader. If I wasn’t so sure of my ability to trade well, the whole thing might be depressing.

The way my equity grows and my mind develops makes the whole thing worthwhile. And I know that if I were to give up my Sunday research now, I risk taking a big step backward—back to being an impulsive dullard, taking positions in the stock market for no damn good reason beyond some base reaction to a jolt in price or some other nonsense like a recommendation from some boob on teevee.

The show must go on lads. Therefore starting today and going forward, I will write a brief odd Sunday blurb as always, then it will be followed by the Sunday Strategy Session. Free of charge.

The models are neutral. Exodus is neutral. There is one tiny whisper of data that give a slight edge to the bears. I am personally bearish as hell and remain cashed up and hedged into quarter end. This position is based merely on prevailing sentiment as it appears through my crusty, jaded, hardened and otherwise indifferent perspective and not anything concrete like data. Maybe once October comes the data will support my perspective. Otherwise I will be forced to cut anchor, drop the SQQQ and chase my favorite names higher.

As always, TBD.

Raul Santos, September 27th 2020

And now the Sunday Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Exodus Strategy Session: 09/28/20 – 10/02/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.9, neutral. Volatility remains high as market struggles to find direction into quarter end.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big down gap to start the week. Choppy. Chopped higher through Tuesday then lower through Friday morning. Then a big Friday rally.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Sector rotations skewed bearish, with the key Tech sector diverging and remaining strong. Alongside the strong Tech performance however was the risk averse Utilities sector.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bearish. Nothing extreme yet but certainly not bullish.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Same call as last THREE weeks: Neutral means very minimal trading

I have very low conviction without some kind of directional bias from either IndexModel or Exodus. I’ll trade open gaps in range, especially a gap up that I can fade lower. But that is about the only risk I am willing to be exposed to.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors found balance, Transports blew their energy and came into balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports did exactly what we expected last week, testing lower after failing higher out of the coil. Now the key sub index appears to be in some kind of a mini discovery down. There was a potential excess low Thursday when price worked down into a cluster of support below.

There is still some more room to the downside but not much before we tag the low-end of our multi-year range.

See below:

Semiconductors are holding range, slightly off all-time highs. Consolidation remains the call until we see this range break.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a fourth week after three prior consecutive bullish readings.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To be prepared against surprise is to be trained. To be prepared for surprise is to be educated.” – James P. Carse

Trade simple, prepare your trades before you enter the market

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