WE ARE COLLAPSING; THE DEFLATIONARY VORTEX IS COMING

Good day lads.

It seems the FOMC has successfully defeated the inflation scare, mostly by making everyone poor. With higher rates and plunging assets, TRILLIONS of personal savings have been discarded or toss into the fires. In its place, from what I could possibly gather, are deflationary pressures that are PART AND PARCEL of any sharp economic decline, which we are most certainly in.

This will make the FOMCs balancing act of rates ALL THE MORE interesting, as I suspect they will be cutting much faster than anyone’s believes possible. For example, if we see another drop in CPI to a 2% annualized rate paired with a large market decline, I promise you this: rates will be cut.

So that’s that.

Now if this thesis is true, the oil trade will be the most dangerous for longs and the bond trade will be most advantageous. We might also see renewed interest in dividend paying stocks. In short, there aren’t many places to hide on a down 1,000 point day. I am +70bps, not due to luck but in fact skill — as I am 19 out of my last 22 in trades and my weekly quant is now choosing my longs. I have a full allocation to the long side, fortunate to have stocks like GOTU, and I have been supplementing the core with my trading prowess. And I must admit, this is the most comfortable I’ve been all year long, possible dating back to February.

I think most Americans don’t pay attention to the incredibly vicious war in the Ukraine, which is reporting casualties on a rate not seen since world war 2. The Russians are now firing ICMBs from the 80s in order to waste or spend through Ukrainian missile defense and its gotten to a point that they are running out of ways to stop Russia’s $30,0000 drone strikes with $3m missiles.

Based upon the laws of Darwinism, it is impossible for Ukraine to ever beat Russia. At this point, Ukraine is a wholly owned subsidiary and vassal state of America. Without America, this conflict would’ve ended in the first month — not due to lack of resolve but due to lack of ammunition. The air defense issue is so bad in Ukraine, we are now sending Patriot missile batteries to help. The only problem with the patriot batteries, aside from it being a sub par and old system — it also takes 6 months of training to operate. We should assume NATO soldiers will be manning these too, as they have been manning the HIMARS. At some point, we will come to learn just how many NATO “mercenaries” have been killed over there and I suspect the numbers will be far greater than anyone expected.

On the issue of American defense.

The industrial capacity is far less than many of you think. We have a gigantic budget of $750b per annum for the military, but most of it is waste or benefits. We only spend $141b per annum on making weapons. For example, we only make 20-60 heavy tanks per yr, 48 HIMARS systems, and only 160 Patriot missiles.

US DEFENSE SPENDING BREAKDOWN. UPWARDS OF $220B GO TOWARDS SERVICEMEN PAY, RETIREMENT, AND HEALTH INSURANCE PER ANNUM. PROCUREMENT OF ACTUAL WEAPONS JUST $141B pic.twitter.com/X5QgeNIMzh

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 15, 2022

We are in no way prepared for a war with Russia on an industrial scale like we are seeing in Ukraine. NATO has all but depleted its weapons stores in an attempt to defeat Russia and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be enough. As of now, Russia is teeming on the Belarusian border with anywhere from 80-200k men, hundreds of tanks, and their industrial production to replace them are running at a feverish pace.

We could see a situation over the next month where Russia cuts off Ukraine from Poland and sends in their reserves to overwhelm Ukrainian forces, at which point America will have to choose war or defeat. A defeat in Ukraine spells the effective end of Pax Americana — something the demon portal atop the White House would be very much against. Ergo, and this goes without saying, expect escalation.

As for markets: I am +30bps due to smart hedging and remain hedged because it’s over and I refuse to get wrapped up in the idea of Satan Claws and pivots and other retarded things that keep fooling people into believing all is well — because it’s not.

In a world filled with mountebanks and hucksters bilking $100m off their followers, Le Fly leads from the front with sword in hand — now presiding on the high ground — tossing flaming balls of tar into enemy entrenchments.

I traded 14 times yesterday, booking 11 wins. Today, I traded 4 times for 4 wins, both long and short.

YTD, my gains stand at +57%. But more than that, and consider this to be a public service, my talents are unmatched.

Hedges are back up after the Fed commented on their intent to stab markets in the stomach all through 2023. Their comments are not in line with recent data, pointing to a strong GDP.

THIS IS FOLLY.

Because of this disconnect, I opted to allocated 20% into SOXS — which is a trade and might be taken off. Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that the Fed is now actively trying to kill you.

Bloomberg was just reporting, according to their natural language algorithms, that according to the last public appearance Powell made — he was the most dovish ever. Super dove. The commentator said Powell would need to “walk it back” since inflation is still running at a 3.6% annual clip, way above the mandate.

This person doesn’t remember what the Fed is all about: a stock market rigging mechanism.

Powell will say dovish things for Xmas and the markets will continue higher because of it. This is my best guess, based upon actual progress in the fight against inflation.

I have not traded yet and just sat down to look around. I see I am +50bps based on my weekly holds, led by GOTU, and I’m not sure how I feeeeel about it. The speech is bound to cause volatility and that really irritates me — because often times the first move is wrong. I know myself, in spite of what I just said. I will feel the need to hedge and I will try my best to avoid it.

Let me describe today’s action in terms of knife fights.

A champion knife fighter enters the subway filled with enemies. He quickly knifes them, one by one — some in the face, others in the leg and, on occasion, in the neck. His goal is to wipe out all enemies so he can take a shit on the tracks. He finishes off his last enemy via knife to eye socket. Feeling good about himself — he is rewarded with a good shitting in the middle of the track. You know where this is going next.

“Aha, I will not be fooled by the olde speeding train gambit,” says our champion — so he quickly lifts his pants up and does a backflip onto the platform. When he turns around to walk towards the exit — a clown approaches him with a shotgun. Outmatched, our champion knife fighter does a backflip to evade potential buckshot and falls directly into a speeding train — which removes his head from his body and thrust it 3 stations ahead.

Tomorrow the clowns are coming.

Look at the pageantry, buoyed by 11 for 14 day trades.

If you bought the morning rip, you got absolutely fucked. The NASDAQ is -400 from the open and there is nothing you can do about it. The idea of a Fed pivot is all the more meaningless when you come to think about the specter of debilitating DEFLATION.

But before we get into that, I’d like to share with you a chart I made of the NASDAQ intraday. I made sure the lines fit my world view, in order to assuage my sensitivities. When I do this, bear in mind, I feel in charge.

I’ve been hedging all morning, taking outsized 15% positions at a clip in SQQQ, SOXS, UVIX etc. The fucking works. Had I not done this, I’d now stand before you DOWN for the session instead of +125bps.

At the present, I have no hedges and instead opted for LEVERAGED LONG with an LABU trade on the barbie. The thing is, and I alluded to this earlier, I really don’t give a fuck. I mean, I do and I don’t. I care about doing smart things. The idea of wasting a life or money is hateful to me. But, in the end, I am indifferent to outcomes, providing I made smart choices based on data.

Most bears will tell you the market is going to Mcplunge into the close. I can see the opposite occurring, especially since we are already DOWN 400 from the open. I really do believe the NASDAQ will not move much from here till year end.

Look at these intraday declines from session highs, in Stocklabs.

You want assured advice — but I’ve got nothing for you. We are all in this alone traveling together, attempting to act confident enough to warrant our dicks getting sucked. In the end, markets will explode higher, eventually. But it appears the inflation boogeyman is dead and in comes Mr. HORATIO CLAWHAMMER, who is far worse by the way.

Inside Stocklabs I track a raw commodity index and it showed all sorts of 1 mo losses for commodities. This made me feeeeeel better about heading into today 100% long, no hedges. Last month the CPI came in light and that same raw commodity index had surged. So what the fuck is going on here?

Simple: it’s over. The inflation narrative is dead because everyone got wiped the fuck out clean. Sure, stocks are up, but no one has any money left to own them.

We now enter into the deflationary vortex and before 2023 is over, the Fed will be slashing rates in an effort to save the economy from collapse.

Soft landings?

No such thing. You’re better off believing in lunar landings.

Am I hedging now?

Not yet.

BIG DICKED days like today tend to carry on and over exaggerate, get stupid, steal other people’s luggage.

I was +3% and now I am +2.35%. I really don’t give a fuck and if I reversed lower and lost, say 15%, I still would not care. NEVERTHELESS, I think it’s important that I inform you, if I might be so bold, that “The Fly” is back to recourd highs and you should most certainly fuck yourselves.

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nobody.

Tomorrow’s CPI number is almost guaranteed to come in COLD. I have deduced this based upon my astrological charting and fact that markets rose 500+ today, ahead of the all important number.

ALSO, and this goes without saying, I drew a line on the chart of the NASDAQ and it says the downtrend is broken.

So what the fuck is going on here? I will tell you.

The market is walking in the subways with a few $20s protruding out of its pocket. The bears see it and attempt to mug said person and perhaps, if lucky, toss him into the tracks for the next train arrival. Unbeknownst to the bear, the market is skilled in the arts of self defense. He quickly takes the muggers hand into a wrist lock and then proceeds to snap his neck — kicking the lifeless body into the tracks.

Do not expect to BEAR UP until 2023. If you’re smart, you will not approach the market when it has $20s protruding out of his pockets but instead catch him in his house when he’s asleep after a night of hard drinking.

With the release of the Twitter files, revealing wanton left wing corruption and infiltration by the devils in government, Musk has placed himself directly into the fires. Perhaps this was his intent, as he originally tried to extricate himself from the $44b Twitter deal and, now that he owns it, is comfortable with his position as leader against the mental illness of wokeness — an ideology born decades again which has twisted and mangled itself over several evolutions into what we see today: a mockery of American ideals and dignity of man.

He went after their witch doctor.

My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 11, 2022

And now the devil himself.

The woke mind virus is either defeated or nothing else matters

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 12, 2022

It’s a non-stop barrage of tweets almost designed to upset government conformists and of course is getting people mad. Because of this behavior by Elon, clearly, we can see the stock price is paying the price.

This comes after news broke last week that Musk was looking to get margin loans against his Tesla stock to replace the high yield loans he received to close the Twitter deal. It’s all fun and games until your Tesla stock drops low enough to warrant a margin call, which will be a risk should Musk deploy this sort of tactic. Whether his newly found obsession with destroying wokeness is having a dampening effect on his sales remains to be seen. I will note, however, both SpaceX and Tesla enjoy government subsidies. I have no insight into the terms of government assistance; but I imagine taking a sharp opposing position against the ruling elite might in fact hurt his businesses.

What’s this all about? Even freshly released International arms dealer, Viktor Bout, sees what is happening to America.

Viktor Bout is exactly right about the United States. Listen to him. pic.twitter.com/BLS3EQLD4g

— ??V??é?? ?? ? (@Navsteva) December 11, 2022

It will be curious to see how shares of TSLA fairs over the next 6 months. The stock had run up terrifically and it’s still valued at more than $550b; but it is greatly underperforming all other large cap stocks in the entire market, as his list of enemies amongst the elite grows exponentially.