Classic Fading of the Market: What Does it All Mean?

If you bought the morning rip, you got absolutely fucked. The NASDAQ is -400 from the open and there is nothing you can do about it. The idea of a Fed pivot is all the more meaningless when you come to think about the specter of debilitating DEFLATION.

But before we get into that, I’d like to share with you a chart I made of the NASDAQ intraday. I made sure the lines fit my world view, in order to assuage my sensitivities. When I do this, bear in mind, I feel in charge.

I’ve been hedging all morning, taking outsized 15% positions at a clip in SQQQ, SOXS, UVIX etc. The fucking works. Had I not done this, I’d now stand before you DOWN for the session instead of +125bps.

At the present, I have no hedges and instead opted for LEVERAGED LONG with an LABU trade on the barbie. The thing is, and I alluded to this earlier, I really don’t give a fuck. I mean, I do and I don’t. I care about doing smart things. The idea of wasting a life or money is hateful to me. But, in the end, I am indifferent to outcomes, providing I made smart choices based on data.

Most bears will tell you the market is going to Mcplunge into the close. I can see the opposite occurring, especially since we are already DOWN 400 from the open. I really do believe the NASDAQ will not move much from here till year end.

Look at these intraday declines from session highs, in Stocklabs.

You want assured advice — but I’ve got nothing for you. We are all in this alone traveling together, attempting to act confident enough to warrant our dicks getting sucked. In the end, markets will explode higher, eventually. But it appears the inflation boogeyman is dead and in comes Mr. HORATIO CLAWHAMMER, who is far worse by the way.

Inside Stocklabs I track a raw commodity index and it showed all sorts of 1 mo losses for commodities. This made me feeeeeel better about heading into today 100% long, no hedges. Last month the CPI came in light and that same raw commodity index had surged. So what the fuck is going on here?

Simple: it’s over. The inflation narrative is dead because everyone got wiped the fuck out clean. Sure, stocks are up, but no one has any money left to own them.

We now enter into the deflationary vortex and before 2023 is over, the Fed will be slashing rates in an effort to save the economy from collapse.

Soft landings?

No such thing. You’re better off believing in lunar landings.

Am I hedging now?

Not yet.

BIG DICKED days like today tend to carry on and over exaggerate, get stupid, steal other people’s luggage.

I was +3% and now I am +2.35%. I really don’t give a fuck and if I reversed lower and lost, say 15%, I still would not care. NEVERTHELESS, I think it’s important that I inform you, if I might be so bold, that “The Fly” is back to recourd highs and you should most certainly fuck yourselves.

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nobody.

Tomorrow’s CPI number is almost guaranteed to come in COLD. I have deduced this based upon my astrological charting and fact that markets rose 500+ today, ahead of the all important number.

ALSO, and this goes without saying, I drew a line on the chart of the NASDAQ and it says the downtrend is broken.

So what the fuck is going on here? I will tell you.

The market is walking in the subways with a few $20s protruding out of its pocket. The bears see it and attempt to mug said person and perhaps, if lucky, toss him into the tracks for the next train arrival. Unbeknownst to the bear, the market is skilled in the arts of self defense. He quickly takes the muggers hand into a wrist lock and then proceeds to snap his neck — kicking the lifeless body into the tracks.

Do not expect to BEAR UP until 2023. If you’re smart, you will not approach the market when it has $20s protruding out of his pockets but instead catch him in his house when he’s asleep after a night of hard drinking.

With the release of the Twitter files, revealing wanton left wing corruption and infiltration by the devils in government, Musk has placed himself directly into the fires. Perhaps this was his intent, as he originally tried to extricate himself from the $44b Twitter deal and, now that he owns it, is comfortable with his position as leader against the mental illness of wokeness — an ideology born decades again which has twisted and mangled itself over several evolutions into what we see today: a mockery of American ideals and dignity of man.

He went after their witch doctor.

My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 11, 2022

And now the devil himself.

The woke mind virus is either defeated or nothing else matters

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 12, 2022

It’s a non-stop barrage of tweets almost designed to upset government conformists and of course is getting people mad. Because of this behavior by Elon, clearly, we can see the stock price is paying the price.

This comes after news broke last week that Musk was looking to get margin loans against his Tesla stock to replace the high yield loans he received to close the Twitter deal. It’s all fun and games until your Tesla stock drops low enough to warrant a margin call, which will be a risk should Musk deploy this sort of tactic. Whether his newly found obsession with destroying wokeness is having a dampening effect on his sales remains to be seen. I will note, however, both SpaceX and Tesla enjoy government subsidies. I have no insight into the terms of government assistance; but I imagine taking a sharp opposing position against the ruling elite might in fact hurt his businesses.

What’s this all about? Even freshly released International arms dealer, Viktor Bout, sees what is happening to America.

Viktor Bout is exactly right about the United States. Listen to him. pic.twitter.com/BLS3EQLD4g

— ??V??é?? ?? ? (@Navsteva) December 11, 2022

It will be curious to see how shares of TSLA fairs over the next 6 months. The stock had run up terrifically and it’s still valued at more than $550b; but it is greatly underperforming all other large cap stocks in the entire market, as his list of enemies amongst the elite grows exponentially.

So it’s emblazoned into our minds the last Fed meeting, whereby the notion of a pivot caused stocks to fucking rampage higher, leaving short sellers in the gutter gutted. Now we wait for this month’s Fed meeting and the permanent bull class of investor is feeling rather smug, thinking the fix is in.

You see where I am going with this.

This is why my stock picks are being selected by Stocklabs for the foreseeable future. I will force myself into a 100% long portfolio based on the rules I set forth, and I will like it and stop being so god damned cynical.

Is it possible the Fed will somehow upset markets and send bulls seaworthy into a morass of misery? That’s always a possibility. But the odds are, given the time of year, we will see calmness.

I still reserve the right to hedge and of course boost returns with leverage. I’ll be closing out last week’s positions before noon today for this week’s picks.

So far I am +95bps for the session. This is a BIG WEEK for markets. Do not be fooled.

I won’t summarize the revelations at Twitter, since it has already been done and I try to avoid that sort of thing now. As you know, I am a force of unity and try to bring all factions together under one umbrella, sans the FATS.

If curious, Zerohedge did a great summary of removing Trump from Twitter.

I did want to briefly discuss the child porn left unfiltered at Twitter. ZH did a write up on that too. I won’t delve into the details, as it’s quite upsetting. But just know, Twitter REJECTED the request from an employee to fund a budget for child safety. Instead, they took that money to spend millions on SPORTSBALL tickets.Even worse, JOHN FUCKING PODESTA’S NIECE, Leslie Podesta, was in charge of the Trust and Safety area of Twitter. I mean, if I tried to write a horror story I could not come up with a better narrative. The modern day boogeymen, John and Tony Podesta, has a family member overseeing political adversaries and who knows what else?

Who was she? Apparently she’s an Aussie who shilled for vaccines and has a long laundry list of tweets documenting her seething hatred for Trump and vaccine hesitant people. In other words, she is a caricature of the woke policies that are destroying the fucking west as we speak.

$PFE https://t.co/kg03wpQIkr

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 9, 2022

Pardon if I’m demonizing a bit; but it’s all so tiring — the wanton nepotism, corruption, and mental illness is enough to drive an otherwise stable person insane. Did you know Dr. Fauci’s daughter worked at Twitter too?

So then you wonder why right wingers, Trump, and anyone who protested lockdowns and FORCED VACCINATIONS were kicked off Twitter. It is precisely because, and most definitely the result of, CUNTS LIKE HER being permitted to police normal people just expressing themselves.

They cite a spike in “hate speech” and you’re damn right there is a reason for it. It is because we hate you.

FORMER HEAD OF TRUST AND SAFETY ASKED THIS FUCKING QUESTION https://t.co/TEacAZjWaf

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 10, 2022

My trading was mixed this week but ended up in spite of some fucked LABU and SQQQ sojourns. Over all, I was up around 2500 in trading gains and lost 1.95% for the week using my new stratagem. Whilst this may seem bad, my quant was RACKED for -9%, as I am sure the vast majority of you underwent similar drawdowns.

This is the time of year to be festive, not some soured Scrooge like person angered at the world for his own unhappiness. I shall not bestow upon you, the unwashed reader, what I internalize daily.

But if you asked me over drinks, I’d show you this.

And then I’d tell you this.

There is nothing you can do to stop it. The great Xmas smash is upon you. All attempts to forgo drawdowns will fail, unless of course if you are net short.

I ended the session DOWN 2.4%, but with hope and optimism — as I am now 143% leveraged long very large amounts of TZA and SQQQ. Before taking on such large positions, I did some research and asked around: “Is anyone gonna stop me from making money in these?” No one dared answer.

I have also received official documents, or at least was told there were official documents, that stated the following: “the grid is under attack” (source: Bubba from the Pelican Room).

Sirs (women are not allowed to read iBankcoin)

We have a problem.

May the blessings of 1000 Turtle Gods enrich your families with joy and springful radiance. However, the stock market is now in dire straights and I am afraid that there is nothing that you, nor your stupid friends, can do about it.

My robot trading arm, coupled with my exuberance for science, has led to my person, on this very day, to be racked with losses. I had it all figured out. I’d REWARD MYSELF for all of my hard work throughout the year and venture off with Mrs Fly TO THE SHOPPING MALL to spend thousands of dollars on complete ingrates, in celebration for in celebration of SATAN CLAWS — an American blood ritual.

I had losses early on due to LULU and others, not to mention my long LABU debacle. Nevertheless, I was intent on enjoying myself whilst I cavorted throughout the narrow hallways that led me to various vendors whose wares were for sale, which were gratuitously purchased by Mrs. Fly. I come to see the outcome of this splendid day and was horrified to learn DOWN 275bps, as the market barely traded lower. It is a sick joke of course and I have come to realize that, no matter how hard I try, I will never escape the range I am in. You will visit here 30 years from now and Elder Fly will be in the same range trying to “bust loose” again.

It’s never gonna happen.

Hedges will be tossed away by the Stock Gods and longs will be toyed with until my death, at which point ANTIFA FLY and co. will liquidate it all and spend it in a fortnight on one of his own expeditions to a shopping mall in the year 2060.

LADS,

I was on top of the mountain urinating down below with a sense of entitlement and bravery. I felt brave because I was brave. I had gains of +2% and nothing could stop me, so I decided to close out my 15% weighted SQQQ position and enter into a quick gambit in LABU — based upon my fervent love for science.

I will illustrate in the chart below what happened next.

It’s fair to say I actually closed out my short at the highest point of today’s tape and then got involved in a bit of a MARTINGALE STRATEGEM in regards to LABU, 3x long biotech index, aka the Merchant of Death. My gains quickly dissipated like a snow man in June, falling from +2% to +0.11%, at which point I resigned myself to this condition. What was once a trade for a “quick profit” then become a religious experience. I conjured up ideas of science in my head and even thought once or twice about Dr. Fauci, perhaps coming to my rescue with FRESH COVID MANDATES, forcing people into concentration camps whereby they might have a nice long think about being ANTI-VAXX.

Then markets started to bounce and towards the top of that range, I once again BARRELED heavily into SHORT OIL via DIG at 15% weight, all but offsetting anything that might occur to LABU.

I ended the session +45bps which is being OFFSET NOW due to a most horrendous after hours debacle in LULU. At any rate, I remain eternally grateful that my enemies face eternal hell and do not come close to my most extravagant +51% returns this year.

Cheers and good day.

Good day

The last time I discussed the semiconductors I was prescient in the sense that November was going to hoist upon us a terrific rally of sorts, gleeful turkey loving market trades piled in and piled the fuck out for a magnanimous trade of +20%. Since then the index has been stuck, TRAPPED EVEN, inside the fag-box. Observe.

My analysis is as follows:

If you’re looking for the SMH break out of this prison it finds itself in, let me remind you that it is not going to happen. The keys have been tossed out and the locks are very strong. Overall, the facility in inescapable — surrounded by a moat filled with deadly sharks and outside the perimeter there are bears.

You feel good today due to recency bias. This is a mental disorder that greatly afflicts mostly low IQ market participants, who regularly soil themselves when markets trade down. As soon as it trades up, these submentals jump up and practically smash their heads against the ceiling — so excited by the markets resolve. Truth is, the market’s true resolve is to go lower. Any brief period of time that elapses with actual gains should be considered something of a gift that should be taken, POST HASTE.

I am higher by 1.7% today, not because I am particularly fond of the market but because I am fully invested based upon the advice provided to me by my computer brain inside Stocklabs. I discussed this in great length before. But if you’re just tuning in now, I am using the algos for weekly picks that I will hold no matter what — supplemented by trades that I might do intra-day and overnight, which are mainly hedges.