NASDAQ futures are priced to start the week out gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated [but not extreme] range and volume.  Price managed to briefly push above the high print from last Friday before settling into balanced trade.

The economic calendar is light today with only a 3- and 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30am to be aware of.  Remember, Wednesday afternoon we have The Fed Rate Decision which is the highest impact event for the market currently.

We came into last week on a Tuesday.  Markets were closed Monday in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King day.  On Tuesday price opened gap up and we spent the day working lower.  Responsive buyers stepped in at the end of the session.  Tuesday opened pro gap down and drove lower all morning.  The action found a strong responsive bid by early afternoon and we spent the rest of the week auctioning higher.

Last Friday opened with a big gap up and price was set on a slow grind higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4247.  Then look for a test above last Friday’s high 4253 however sellers step in ahead of overnight high 4260 and work us back down through the range to take out overnight low 4218.  This sets up a move down to 4188.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers fill overnight gap up to 4247 then set their sights on overnight high 4260 which also lines up with the 4258.75 open gap from 01/14.  Look for buyers to sustain trade above this level setting up a move to target 4288.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers cannot fill overnight gap.  Sellers take out overnight low 4218.50 and work down to 4188.25.  The initial buyers in this region are overrun and we continue lower to target 4154.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are priced to open pro gap up after a Globex session featuring extreme range and volume.  After a balanced session through midnight, price trended up to make a new high on the week.  Responsive sellers stepped in right at the midpoint from last Thursday.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10am, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and we had a rejection reversal sell on the open.  Responsive buyers stepped in around the 4100 century mark and made a hard push higher which transitioned into a sideways, grinder market.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4187.  Look for responsive buyers here (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday close) who reject an attempt back into Thursday’s range.  Then look for a move to take out overnight high 4213.  Responsive sellers show up at 4220.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4220.25 and sustain trade above it, setting up a fast (pocket) move up to 4255.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers aggressively work into the overnight inventory, make short work of 4187 and test down to 4166.  Responsive buyers show up here but are overrun and we continue lower to fill the overnight gap down to 4130.25.  From here take out overnight low 4119.  Look for a strong responsive bid down at 4117.25.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap up heading into Thursday after a globex session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price held the upper half of yesterday’s range and managed to briefly take out the high print from yesterday.  At 8:30am the Philadelphia Fed data was slightly better-than-expected and the Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data was mixed.  There was a strong buy on the news.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory data at 11am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day, the market profile day-type carrying the third highest amount of directional conviction.  Price opened pro gap down and at new swing low.  After responsive sellers defended an early attempt back into Wednesday’s range they became initiative and pushed price down through the lower weekly ATR band.  The first responsive bid attempt was overrun and we pushed a bit lower to close the 08/24/15 gap at 3997.50.  If you recall, this is the gap created when China last cut their interest rate. We rallied hard from that point, traversing the entire range and closing the overnight gap to ultimately close the session flat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory at close the overnight gap down to 4134.  Look for responsive buyers here (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday’s close) who work to take out overnight high 4181.50.  From here look for a move to target 4195.75 with a stretch target of 4202.75.

Hypo 2 sellers work the overnight gap fill down to 4314 then continue lower to test value area low 4123.  Two way trade takes hold, but struggles to trade north of 4150.  The market goes range bound between 4150 and 4100.

Hypo 3 buyers hold the overnight gap, sustaining trade above 4144.  Take out overnight high 4180 then target 4202.75 early.  Sustain trade in this area to set up a move up to 4255.

Hypo 4 liquidation continues.  Early gap fill down to 4134.  Fast move to take out overnight low 4085.75.  Buyers make a responsive attempt at 4069 but are eventually overrun setting up a move to target 4007.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are down to a new swing low overnight after a globex session featuring extreme range and volume.  The session kicked off with a trend down which located a responsive bid just above the weekly ATR band (low).  This level also lines up with a gap left behind on 08/25/2015.  After finding the responsive bid the market came into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in below expectations and at 8:30am Consume Price Index came in below expectations.  The initial reaction is small buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down day.  After price opened gap up we spent the morning filling the gap.  Responsive buyers at these levels were overrun and price pushed deep into last Friday’s range before finding a responsive buyer and closing at session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work price up to 4107.75.  Look for responsive sellers here to defend yesterday’s range and push price back down to 4050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle to push above 4081 setting up a move lower.  Price sustains below 4050 setting up a move to target overnight low 4035.25.  Look for responsive buyers at 4032.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers muster up a full gap fill up to 4145.75.  First they capture and sustain trade above 4107.75.

Hypo 4 full-on-liquidation.  Take out overnight low 4035.25 early and sustain trade below it.  Stretch targets are 3997.50 then off the road, down to 3867.50.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday shortened week pro gap up after an extreme overnight session.  Both range and volume are beyond third sigma on price that held last Friday’s low before working up to last Thursday’s midpoint.  The market has held a tight balance since about 4am.

On the economic calendar today we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, 3- & 6-month T-Bill Auctions at 11:30am, and Net Long-term TIC Flows at 4pm.

Last week we started out gap up and faded lower through most of Monday before finding a late-day responsive bid.  Tuesday was gap up and faded lower to close the gap before finding an early-afternoon responsive bid.

Wednesday was gap up and after making a brief weekly high, it reversed and turned into a trend day down.  Thursday was gap up and had a sharp move lower to a new weekly low before finding a sharp responsive bid and trending higher.

Friday finally had a huge gap down then a grind lower that ultimately formed an excess low and came into balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory to test 4168.  Look for responsive buyers here to reject a move back into last Friday’s range and work higher to take out overnight high 4215.75.  Look for responsive sellers just above at 4220.50 and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through 4158 to and and work the full gap fill down to 4141.50.  Look for a continued move to target 4130.  Look for responsive buyers around 4121 and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher.  Take out overnight high 4215.75 early and sustain trade above 4220.50 setting up a secondary leg to test up to 4250.75.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are down about 120 points heading into Friday after an extreme session both in volume and range.  Price spent the entire session trending lower, and we are set to open right around the low print from yesterday.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out in line with expectations, but worst than expectations ex Gas and Auto.  At 8:30am Empire Manufacturing also came out and was surprisingly low at nearly -20%.  The initial reaction to the news is hard selling–price is lower by nearly 40 points since the data.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production at 9:15am, U of Michigan Confidence read at 10am, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a double distribution trend day up.  Price opened gap up and quickly faded lower to take out overnight low before finding a strong responsive bid and grinding higher.  Sellers stepped in toward the end of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade back up to 4175 (the scene of the 8:30am data).  Look for initiative sellers here (initiative relative to yesterday’s close, responsive relative to the open) who work to take out overnight low 4127.  Look for responsive buyers t 4119.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and drive lower.  Take out 4119.75 and set our sights on the open gap down at 4074.75.  Look for a strong responsive buyer here.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4175 and sustain trade above it to set up a secondary leg to target yesterday’s VPOC 4222.

Levels:

One of my favorite market profile formations is the string of single prints.  We left behind a trail of them yesterday.  Often times the market blows right through them.

Some call them zippers, on the way up I call them poles:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after a Globex session featuring extreme, 3rd sigma, range and volume.  The session was balanced overall but did manage to exceed yesterday’s low before settling into two way trade.  As is always the case, a swing low made outside of regular trading hours is considered suspect.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data came out worse than expected.  The initial reaction is a small amount of buying.

Also on the economic calendar we have a 30-Year bond auction resuming at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend day down.  Price opened gap up and sellers made short work of filling the overnight gap which opened the door up for a test below overnight low.  Initial responsive buyers in this area were overrun and we spent the rest of the day trending lower and making a new swing low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4175.50.  From here I will look for a test down to overnight low 4152.  Look for responsive buyers just below this level and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers make a gap and go higher.  They take out overnight high 4214.75 early on and find responsive seller ahead of 4224 settling up into two way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4224 and sustain trade above it setting up a pole climb up to 4262 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers work gap fill down to 4175.50, take out overnight low 4152 and liquidation takes hold.  Stretch targets to the downside are 4119.50 then 4074.75.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap up today after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price rallied after cash closed and continued higher early this morning before coming into balance around last Friday’s high.  Price managed to rally through President Obama’s last State of The Union Address last night and bulls have been defending the progress since.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory data at 10:30am.  This may carry elevated importance to stocks since the commodity broke the $30 handle yesterday.  We also have a 1pm auction of 10-Year Treasury notes, and both the Monthly Budget Statement and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday price opened pro gap up and after buyers drove off the open the action was faded–first to recapture the Monday range then the entire gap was filled.  Buyers stepped in late in the session and pushed price higher but we ultimately faded back to the mean.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, but look for buyers to defend around 4337.50.  From there look for a move to take out overnight high 4365.  Buyers accelerate from here to target the strange 10/21 gap left behind at 4398.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers test above overnight high 4365 and and find responsive sellers setting up a tight two way chop trade between 4350 and 4370.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 4312.75 then set their sights on overnight low 4306.75. Look for responsive buyers around 4294.75 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are heading into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price started the globex session working lower and traded back down to value area low before again finding a sharp responsive bid down in the conviction levels printed back on October second.  The market then continued higher to take out yesterday’s high and push into the upper quadrant of last Friday before finding sellers.

The economic calendar is spattered with low/medium impact events here in USA, but we also have a 9:15am talk coming from Bank of England’s Mark Carney which may make for a choppy cash open.  Also on the docket we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-Week T-Bill Auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year T-Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we came into the week gap up and made short work of erasing the gap in downward trade.  Price pushed deep into the 10/02 conviction day before finding a strong responsive bid (much like globex this morning).  Buyers rushed in once a bid was established and we closed above the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory.  Look for a move down to 4278 then responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday’s close) who step in and work to take out overnight high 4332.75.  Upside target is 4348.75.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 4272 which sets up a move to test the interesting low volume node at 4257.  Look for responsive buyers here who defend and push higher to 4300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 erase the overnight gap down to 4272 then push back down through value to test VAL 4243.  Sellers then target overnight low 4236.50.  This sets up a test of Monday low 4208.75.  Downside target is 4118.

Levels: