NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap up.  On Sunday James Comey, Director of the FBI re-closed the investigation into H.Clinton’s emails.  After the gap up, range and volume were normal during the balance session.

On the economic docket today we have a 3- and 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30am then Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Last week markets opened slight gap up and spent the rest of the week trend down.   Here is the performance of each major index last week:

Last Friday the NASDAQ was gap down and found a sharp responsive bid at an old MCVPOC.  The morning rally eventually faded off, ending the week hovering just above this major reference point.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and take out the overnight low which shows up at 4709.75.  Buyers step in at 4707.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and squeeze run higher.  Take out overnight high 4739.75 and target 4762 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 aggressive sellers push down through 4707.50 and work down to 4689.25 before two way trade ensues.

The first hour is likely to see OTF players slosh price around.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price briefly took out the Thursday low before coming into balance.  At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data was as follows:

• USA Unemployment Rate for Oct 4.90% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 5.00%
• USA Nonfarm Payrolls for Oct 161.0K vs 175.0K Est; Prior 156.0K
• US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Oct: 0.40% (est 0.30%; rev prev 0.30%)
• Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Oct: 2.80% (est 2.60%; rev prev 2.70

Data was slightly below expectations.  The NASDAQ is catching a slight bid off the data.

The only other scheduled economic event today is the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  It was the third consecutive time we printed this day-type.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4682.25 and test 4692 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers push up through 4694.75 and target 4717.25 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 3 strong trend up to target 4740.50.

Hypo 4 sellers work down through overnight low 4667.75 to tag the MCVPOC at 4653.25 before a strong bid steps in.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked down to a new swing low, down into the 09/12 range before finding buyers and moving back to unchanged.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing composite, Factory and Durable Goods Orders, all at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  It was the second consecutive trend down.  The selling was exacerbated at the closing bell after Facebook reported dismal 2017 guidance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4710.  Buyers show up ahead of the Wednesday low 4708.25 and we work higher, up through overnight high 4723.25.  Look for sellers up around 4732 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4723.5 and sustain trade above 4732 setting up a move to target 4761.75.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through overnight low 4689.50 setting up a move to target 4649.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range overnight with bidders working onto the tape ahead of the excess low printed Tuesday.  At 8:15am ADP Employment came in below expectations.

USA ADP Employment Change for Oct 147.0K vs 165.0K Est; Prior 154.0K

On the economic calendar today we have the FOMC rate decision at 2pm.  Fed fund futures suggest this is not a live meeting, currently pricing a 7.2% chance of a rate hike.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Price opened gap up and sellers quickly drove the market lower and continued pressing into the tape and took out October’s lows before finding a responsive bid inside the 9/13 range.  Price then recovered back to the daily mid before the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 4761.25 and work up to 4770 before balance and two way trade ensues as we wait the FOMC decision.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4737.50 and target 4717.75 before we balance out ahead of the FOMC.

Hypo 3 strong buying pushes up to 4800 before we balance into the Fed.

Look for the third reaction post FOMC rate decision to dictate market direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price held the Friday low then made a strong push higher before midnight New York.  The move was contained within Friday’s range, finding sellers along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.  At 8:30am Personal Income data was in line with expectations and Personal Spending was better than expected, calling last Friday’s Personal Consumption miss into question.

Also on the economic docket today we have both 3- and 6-month T-bill auction coming to auction at 11:30am.

Last week the Russell moved lower and the Dow Jones held its tight balance while the other two indices sustained minor losses:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  Early buying was reversed around 1pm when news of FBI Director Comey re-opening his instigation of the Clinton emails hit the wires.  Buyers near the end of the session managed to push the market out of a neutral extreme print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4805.75.  The market catches a bid right around here and works up through overnight high 4830 to target 4853.75 MCVPOC before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work gap fill down to 4805.75 then take out overnight low 4788.25 and continue down to 4780.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap and go, up through overnight high 4830 and tag 4853.75 MCVPOC before settling into balanced trade.

Hypo 4 choppy range from 4826 to 4795.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked down near the 10/17 low but could not break it before catching a strong bid and working into balance.

At 8:30am GDP data was strong but underlying Personal Consumption was weak.  More details here.  Also on the economic calendar today we have the final reading of U. of Michigan confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  After opening gap up, near the Wednesday high, the market had an early drive down.  By late afternoon a second, initiative wave of selling began and ultimately accelerated after the bell, during settlement, post-Amazon earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4807. A bid shows up around 4800 and we settle into quiet, two-way trade below 4830 and cruise into the weekend.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers take out overnight low 4788.50 and target 4780.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up off the open, take out overnight high 4822.50 and test 4843.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up to 4853.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures came into the morning gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight for the most part until a strong trust higher around 7am when earnings started rolling in.  Strong earnings from CELG may have accelerated the morning rally.

At 8:30am Durable Good Orders came in below expectations, also Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

At 10am Pending Home Sales data was better than expected:

USA Pending Home Sales (MoM) for Sep 1.50% vs 1.20% Est; Prior -2.40%

Also on the docket today we have a 7-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  After opening gap down price worked up to Tuesday’s low where sellers rejected a move back into it.  We then reversed the entire morning move before settling back into the middle of the days range.

This morning we opened gap up, near Wednesday’s high and saw a drive lower to close the overnight gap.

Heading into the meat of the trading day, my primary expectation is for sellers to work toward overnight low 4842.50 to target the MCVPOC at 4831.

Hypo 2 buyers defend around 4845 and two way trade ensues between 4866.75 and 4845.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down to 4825.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into mid-week gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price initially popped higher, post-Apple earnings, before turning lower and pressing down into last week’s highs and catching a bid.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in below last week’s reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-Year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and also a 5-year Note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  An early 2-way auction gave way to sellers initiating lower prices slowly and methodically.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and test Tuesday’s low around 4877 before rolling over and heading lower, down through overnight low 4853 to target the open weekly gap down at 4843.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go, push down through overnight low 4853, close gap down at 4843.25 then target the MCVPOC at 4831 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work a full gap fill up to 4888 triggering a pole climb up to 4900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new highs overnight before coming into balance early this morning.

On the economic calendar today we have the House Price Index at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price came into the morning gap up (pro gap) and buyers drover higher in the morning. Then, late in the afternoon buyers made a second initiative push to new highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4903.25.  From here look for a move down through overnight low 4900.75 then we find responsive buyers and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4919.50 and continue probing into open air.  More new highs.

Hypo 3 sellers work down to 4888.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up into single prints that stretch up to 4886.25.  This ‘thin and fast’ zone is likely to be traversed quickly.

On the economic calendar today we have Market Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off some 3- and 6-month T-bills.

Last week the NASDAQ was strong while other indces were mixed.  The Dow lagged behind and my catch up this week.  Last week’s performance for each major index is below:

On Friday we printed a normal variation up.  And early probe lower marked session low and we spent the rest of the day slowly working higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze up to 4886 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 squeeze pushes up to 4886.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4843.25 then take out overnight low 4842.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »