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NASDAQ Attempts Rally into Fed Rate Decision; at Risk of Stalling

NASDAQ futures are set to begin Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up near last Friday’s high, before settling back into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in below expectations.  The initial reaction is a soft sale.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower after an early spurt higher closed the overnight gap.  Just after going range extension down the NASDAQ printed a failed auction.  After a two-way dispute regarding the matter, responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily range and closed out the market at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for two-way chop.  Look for an early move lower to close the overnight gap down to 4472.50. Sellers continue lower to take out overnight low 4467.50 before finding responsive buyers down at 4448.75 and two way trade ensuing.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 early on setting up a move to test 4493 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 then sustain trade above 4493 setting up a move to test the 4500 century mark.

Levels:

04262016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04262016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Little Uptick in Volatility To Start The Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on an elevated range.  Price held Friday’s low during a series of downward rotations last night before settling into balance.  The entire session was spent below last Friday’s range midpoint.

The economic calendar starts quiet this week, but has several major events toward the end.  For today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the NASDAQ diverged lower while the other indices worked higher.  The Russell 2000 in particular showed strength despite the heavy selling in the NASDAQ.  Last Friday saw the NASDAQ sharply lower during the morning session before finding a responsive bid ahead of the 04/12 low and closing the week out bouncing back toward the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work lower and take out overnight low 4436.  This sets up a test of Friday’s low 4431 which triggers a liquidation all the way down to 4402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4466.25 before finding responsive sellers and working lower to take out overnight low 4436 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4466.25 then continue working higher to take out overnight high 4479.75.  Look for buyers to continue probing higher, up to 4492.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04252016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04252016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Down A Quick 60 as Investors Weigh in on Tech Earnings

Time to call a spade a spade; Windows 10 is a disaster.  Microsoft has pressured users into upgrading through incessant popups for nearly a year because everyone is terrified to upgrade.  I called Microsoft and asked them if they would continue to support Windows 7 Ultimate, the greatest operating system of all time, because it’s what runs my charting and algo computer aka MOTHERSHIP.  Their rep actually told me NOT to upgrade.  It felt like I received a Presidential pardon.

Google parent Alphabet, which is super bullshit BTW, that we have to call Google ‘Alphabet’ like a bunch of kids in a schoolyard. I digress.  Google is down over $40 bucks and that is sending a chill down the spine of every bull in town.  Google never disappoints.

GOOL_ontwtr

So what do tech investors have to hang their hat on?  Intel gutting their workforce?  AMD?!  LOL….AMD is the Bernie Sanders of the technology cadre.

See Also: Intel to Fire 12,000 Losers

The NASDAQ is your leader this week, that has been the call since Sunday, and the NASDAQ is trying for lower prices.  Your only hope, the NASDAQ’s only hope is Amazon–set to report next week.

They better kill it.

 

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Back Down in Lower Value After Google Earnings Rock The NASDAQ

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price continued pushing lower early on, extending the downward reaction to Alphabet earnings before coming into balance.

The economic and earnings calendar is light today.  We have US Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price held upper value until the settlement period when the Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) earnings were released.  This information spiked price lower, putting the session into a neutral extreme print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to go down and take out overnight low.  From here look for a continued move down to test the lower boundary of value down at 4463.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher and take out overnight high 4501.75 setting up a move to 4515 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up through the entire spike lower and target 4524.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04222016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04222016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Alphabet and Microsoft Day Down at The NASDAQ

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to hold yesterday’s range through Globex.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in well below expectations.  Verizon is trading lower in pre after reporting inline sales continued EPS growth.

The bigger earning announcements, however, come after the bell when both Microsoft and Alphabet (aka Google) are set to report.  Also on the economic docket today we have House Price index at 9am and Leading Indicators at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and sellers pressed into it early on.  By 9:45am a responsive bid stepped in and the market worked higher but was unable to push up into the Tuesday morning liquidation drive.  Late in the session sellers came and knocked price back down to session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy session.  Look for buyers to work higher and take out overnight high 4549.50.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4526.  Look for responsive buyers just below the overnight low and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers become initiative below overnight low 4526 and continue working lower to test below Wednesday low 4515 and potentially below Tuesday low 4506.75.  Stretch target is open gap down at 4489.75.

Hypo 4 strong buying sustains trade above 4550 setting up a rally.  Stretch target is 4581.25.

Levels:

04212016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04212016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Stock Market Stays High into 420

NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held yesterday’s range before thrusting higher, back up to the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am and Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.  No major tech earnings are due out today, but the reacting to yesterday evenings Intel earnings will be useful context as we navigate today’s NASDAQ trade.

See Also: Take a Close Look at Semiconductors Ahead of Intel Earnings

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day started with a drive down which set the tone on the session.  A strong secondary rotation pushed price to test the micro-composite value area high [MCVAH] where responsive buyers stepped in and squeezed price back to the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make an early push above overnight high 4538.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4548 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4526.75.  Responsive buyers step in around 4518 and work higher to take out overnight high 4538 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4526.75 then set their sights on overnight low 4509.  This sets up a move down to 4503.50.  Stretch target is the open gap down at 4489.75.

Levels:

04202016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04202016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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RED MONDAY GAP NOW IN RANGE

NASDAQ futures are heading into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring a strong upward rotation.  The buying started around 1am and lasted until 6–pushing price up near the ‘Red Monday’ gap, the big gap down to start 2016 back on 01/04.  Range is elevated on normal volume, and at 8:30am both Housing Starts and Building Permits data came in way below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am. Also, both Intel [INTC] and Yahoo [YHOO] report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the day with a strong drive up the market went into balance and two way trade ensued along the swing high.  At the end of the session, during settlement period, their was a seller’s push back down to the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 4584.50 and target the red Monday gap up at 4591.50.  Look for responsive sellers above at 4596 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4546.25.  Look for responsive buyers right near these levels and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling closes overnight gap down to 4546.25 then targets overnight low 4544.25.  Look for sellers to continue probing lower, down to 4530.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04192016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04192016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Balances Out During Globex; $IBM and $NFLX on Deck

NASDAQ futures are set to open with a modest gap down after an interesting overnight session.  Range and volume were normal but the session kicked off with a gap down, something we haven’t seen in 2016.  Price pushed down and tested the value area established earlier this month before a responsive bid came in and two way trade ensued.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today we have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, also a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

While the economic calendar is light, earnings season kicks into high gear.  After the bell today we will hear from IBM and Netflix.

Last week started out with sellers attempting lower.  Their campaign continued into Tuesday morning before an extremely strong responsive bid stepped in–so strong it pushed higher for the whole session.  This led into a gap up Wednesday and continued upward action though Thursday before responsive sellers were found.

Friday price worked lower before finding a bid and settling into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Normally, when we are coming into the session gap down I am looking for the opposite, buyers, but last night’s session opened gap down then worked higher, suggesting inventory is long.  Look for sellers to work down to 4504.50 before responsive buyers step in and work higher, eventually taking out overnight high 4534.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4501 and target the open gap down at 4489.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work higher off the open, take out overnight high 4534.50 and sustain trade above 4536.50 setting up a move to 4549.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04182016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, measured moves:

04182016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Futures Enter Option Expiration Slightly Lower

NASDaQ futures are set to enter Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price is testing Thursday’s low as we head into the open, but so far we have held the prior day’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Industrial Production at 9:15am, U of Michigan Confidence at 10am, Baker Hughs Rig count at 1pm and Net Long-term TIC Flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  In a quiet session price continued to slowly grind higher, with sellers showing up in the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to pin sideways.  There are two areas we could potentially pin to–around 4547 or down near 4486.75.  Primary expectation is we pin to the former via buyers pushing into the overnight inventory and closing the gap up at 4547.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4554.50 then finding responsive sellers before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low, a double low with Thursday’s low, down at 4534.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4507 who are overrun as price seeks to pin at 4486.25.

Hypo 3 strong buyers take out overnight high 4554.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to test above yesterday’s high 4563.25.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4569.50 otherwise price continues higher to target the RED Monday gap up at 4591.50.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I will be going live at 1pm eastern to demonstrate some of the most powerful tools inside Exodus.  Be sure to tune in!  Link below:

Levels:

04152016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04152016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Lingering on The Highs

NASDAQ futures are set to enter Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Wednesday’s range in balanced trade.

At 8:30am we’ll hear a slew of data pertaining to the Consumer Price Index.  Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year Bond reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and initiative buyers quickly stepped in and bid the market.  Price worked higher to close the open gap left behind on 04/06 and lingered at this high water mark, eventually ramping higher into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push up and test above Wednesday’s high 4553.75.  From here I’m looking for a move up to 4570 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the slightly long overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4530.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4506.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling sustains trade below 4500 setting up a move down to 4463.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 4570 and work higher to target 4589 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04142016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04142016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

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