Sun Feb 5, 2017 12:59pm ESTComments Off on After Solid Winning Streak, iBankCoin Labs Flips To Neutral
It takes a certain humility to admit when you have no edge in a competition. Like Super Bowl squares, no edge, I’m not buying. Or predicting how Tesla will behave after their Wednesday earnings announcement.
I can’t call it.
After 4 weeks of bullish predictions from the IndexModel, it has flipped to neutral. Like a bird on a wire, it would rather observe and chat than venture onto the busy street for snacks.
Heading into the second week of the second month of the first year under our new American authoritarian regime, which is cool, we love our leader ::quivers:: there is no call from iBankCoin labs.
Sun Jan 8, 2017 1:37pm ESTComments Off on Hard To Argue with Logic: iBankCoin Labs Find No Reason for Concern Heading into Week Two
Greetings from the iBankCoin labs watchtower. At over 15,000 vertical feet of elevation, the observation deck allows for spectacular views of the financial landscape, and with it an honest conception for world affairs.
The market tipped its hand Wednesday, just enough for the supercomputers inside Exodus to alert members of an impending blitzkrieg from the bulls. It looks like bullish dominance will continue to assert itself next week—but perhaps in a more subtle way.
There is likely to be more action in the momentum space than the indices. When we float around all-time highs, there usually isn’t much opportunity for a fella like me to earn money. My market profile fire levels are are left below, and the rotations are often small and slow.
If I needed to engage the market next week, intra-day, to extract moneys, my attention would be on the Momentum screen inside Exodus. I would refresh it at 11am and again at 1:30pm and look for names setting up a nice pullback after an initial surge. I would buy said pullback, ride it back to intra-day highs (god willing) then GTFO and move to the next one.
The best part about building your own model using quality data, like the raw futures data I pipe in from IQFeed and the elegant algorithms inside Exodus, is you trust it and know when to act. There is no better approach to engaging the market than a consistently objective one.
Most people want to be told what to do. Unfortunately, they depend on others. I depend on robots. My robots. It’s better that way.
If you are good to your robots, they will be good to you. Keep them calibrated and oiled. Offer them zero time off but also a comfortable place to call home and appreciation for their service.
Despite my headline boldly claiming ‘no reason for concern’ there is one. The Russell 2000 began to turn lower at a curious level last week. It is the weakest looking index. Keep an eye on it this week to see if it can lead lower.
Otherwise, all is well in 2017. A new leadership shall be ushered in soon, one that promises to make the USA stronger than ever, and investors seem emboldened by these prospects. Yes, the rally is long-in-tooth, but the music is still playing—so keep dancing—monkey.
BULLISH
Exodus members, the 113th Edition of Strategy Session is published. Go check it out now. Three days hence its relevance is less. By Friday, practically useless. Now is when to read it. Go.
Third rule of Trend Day: engage every pullback. Fourth rule: always keep a runner. Fifth rule: one trade at a time, fellas. Sixth rule: trades are intra-day only. No overnight shit. Seventh rule: trends will go on as long as they have to. And the eight and final rule: if this is your first Trend Day, you have to trade.
Ladies and gentlemen, just two days after Exodus algorithms ended the Krampus Alert, and on the final day of trade in this first magnificent week of 2017, the NASDAQ goes out and prints a delicious and powerful trend day.
I am so fortunate to understand auction theory—the cornerstone of my trading approach—and how to supercharge it with “The Fly’s” fucking time machine. What for most was just another data point in a sea of information was for yours truly a nudge to flip my bias:
Trend days are the most powerful day type in auction theory. They tell us something going forward. They also offer tons of reward to their riders. In short, I did my job, and now I want to go back on vacation.
The air is sweet, the sun is hot, the ground is cold. It all serves to refresh the mind and invigorate the soul heading into 2017. This year will be much more challenging than 2016. First of all, numerically, we are leaving a year divisible by 3 for one that isn’t. So the number gods will not be shining down upon us during this trip around the sun.
Then then we have a geopolitical upheaval in progress which will surly rattle the markets, eventually, at some point.
However, at iBankCoin laboratories we do not expend precious energy and resources trying to predict how worldy events, well beyond our control, will affect stock prices. Instead we focus on the raw and objective, pure data generated by the cumulative interaction of humans—the natural order of the markets—the last pure beacon of capitalism, to predict 5 to 10 days at a time.
Prediction is much like driving at night. You only see the road your headlights illuminate, but you can make it across the entire country this way. That is our approach to the stock market. Take it one day, one week, one Exodus cycle at a time.
This method has severed us well. There was a long-running win streak into the summer, including being short into the Brexit vote, covering and going long into one of the hardest rallies of the year–all decisions objectively driven by the IndexModel and Exodus. It also offered the short bias heading into Christmas, an uncomfortable posture into a traditionally bullish time.
The 112th edition of Exodus Strategy session has been published, and inside it preparations have been made heading into January—often an ultra-violent month for markets. With any luck, and a hard line penchant for objective execution, we can nail some big moves this year. Exodus members (I see there are many new distinguished gentlemen, welcome) go check out the latest strategy session and if you have any questions, ask away. It may take a few days for a response as I am starting the year off barreling down giant rocks with a board strapped to my feet.
The first matter of business will be deciding when to cover the rest of my NASDAQ short position trade. I took a scale into Friday, risk has been neutralized–now the goal is to earn some creme whilst sashaying across the USA.
Let’s make the markets cry for their mammy this year.
The results are in. After tabulating the data from last week’s rally and inputting forecasting metrics for next week, the IndexModel is issuing a winter rally warning.
The model registered some of the highest scores ever, bested only by the extreme bullishness seen in early April.
Fed fund futures over at the CME show a 94.9% probability of a rate hike Wednesday from the FOMC. Thus far, despite the high probability of an event historically seen as bearish for equities, markets are careening higher.
This may be due to investor perception on the economy being robust enough to sustain a rate hike, and that being bullish. Or, this could be the bow on a legacy stock market for President Obama, who gave us the finest stock market of our lifetimes.
At iBC labs we don’t particularly care to dwell on the ‘whys’ of the world, instead focusing on expectations and how we intend to extract currency from the market regardless of its behavior.
Heading into next week, the plan will be to find ways to go long before the Fed meeting, then to use the post-meeting reaction to dictate our bias into the second half of the week. Simple.
The world is aglow, tinted rose by the stock market gods. The best of times, enjoy!
Exodus members, the 109th Exodus Strategy Session has been published. Go check it out!
Thu Dec 1, 2016 4:41pm ESTComments Off on Facebook Destroyed, Tech Dismantled as Fire and Brimstone Rain Down on The NASDAQ Exchange
The NASDAQ printed its second consecutive trend down Thursday as the final month of 2016 gets underway.
A broad swath of tech names were lower including Facebook which was down nearly -3% after Citi desk commentary highlighted 3 items potentially impacting the stock:
Crowded Tech/Internet favorites and high beta names continue to unwind today
Boutique research firm was out w/ negative data points yesterday (forecasting a deceleration in North American and European revenue growth, but estimates are in-line with the Street.
Hearing mgmt has been out marketing last couple of days, but no takeaways yet.
Starbucks was doing fine all day but is being pillaged after hours on news that CEO Howard Schulz will step down (again). Since he came back once and save the company, and since they made the fatal error of doubling down on their growth scheme in China, investors are dumping shares like tea party hooligans. BEARISH EXTREMELY BEARISH for Starbucks.
The entire healthcare sector is in shambles as investors begin to accept and digest the outcome of American President. The sector is down nearly -2% to start December with the biggest losses coming in DRUGS…the industry riddled with schemers gaming Obamacare for big time bucks.
All of this mayhem, and more, started surfacing yesterday, we talked about the hows and whys (NASDAQ/RUSSELL leading lower, methodical nature of order flow, etc.) in this post and how it was likely to continue into today and Friday.
My conviction is even stronger, for weakness that is exasperated by Nonfarm Payroll to resolve in a rather horror show Friday for all you post-holiday gluttons to chew on.
In summary, and with a modicum of joy for the return of volatility, NASDAQ and its components tell a tale of worse before better.
There was a hard sell two days after Trump won President but it was a knee-jerk, algorithmic type move. Otherwise we’ve rallied.
However, in what has become a popular pastime in American market lore, exceeding the most recent swing high introduced a strong seller. This is the case again Wednesday on the NASDAQ exchange.
It happened inside my two favorite Fibonacci extensions, which I use to gauge whether a breakout is real or just a stop hunter:
The selling that came in today was methodical, resting then cutting through local levels*. It was initiative in nature, meaning the higher time frame continued to engage the NASDAQ throughout the day via their sell orders.
*market profile levels on any morning report are examples of local levels
Meanwhile, over at the Dow Jones, sellers could not regain Tuesday’s range. Also the Russell is at its Exodus Strategy Session bracket low–a demarcation line that grades my algo and also draws a proverbial do or die for whether a week ends up being range-bound or something bigger.
If these sort of conversations and observations seem logical to you, and an objective way to assess and engage the markets, it may make sense for you to sign up for Option Addict’s upcoming bootcamp. He’s proficient in these matters and has a knack for presenting them in understandable ways and you can ask him whatever you want.
I sort of just do, ya feel?
The resilience is coming from the S&P and Dow while our riskier Russell and NASDAQ potentially lead lower.
First of the month action could be fast to the downside. If it does accelerate, look for any Non-farm payroll data to be used to exacerbate the action. Same goes if we rally hard into NFP, look for the Friday morning data to stoke the rally.
If we are flatish heading into the data–then use it to gauge direction into Friday and the weekend and may GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL.
Sun Nov 27, 2016 1:08pm ESTComments Off on Lab Results Are In: We’re Bullish Here
Well hello, you there, with the electronic device staring you in the face, come have a look inside my laboratory:
These lines are an extension of my brain laced with Fly’s computer brain inside the Exodus time machine. The two form a symbiotic bond that does an okay job of forecasting 1-week’s worth of stock market behavior.
You see, my brain doesn’t work like a normal humans. It compartmentalizes things to make sense of it all. Order from chaos, if you will. Sometime a big pool of chaos is compartmentalized, even if only temporarily. Like my tool shelf which, for the last three or so years has simply been the zone where tools are placed. Many others are commissioned to use my tools and over time it became a royal mess. But in my brain, tools went there.
I spend the better part of Saturday tearing open that royal cluster fuck of a shelving mess, disposing of the useless and further compartmentalizing the tool zone. It now has several distinct and logical zones for specific tools.
Now, when I need to work on one of my robots, I can quickly access my drivers, for example. They’re all in one bin. Over time the shelves will become deschevled again, but a strong baseline has been established which will ensure future tidying jobs will be exponentially faster.
Logic, cold and dead, tends to be my cranial path to nirvana.
What can be done with the tangible (tools and screws and such) can be done with the intangible, like market information. The key is to dispose of the information which is garbage (most opinions and news) and to compartmentalize the enormous pool of quality data (ticks and orders and bits).
Data, assigning numerical values to the very human interactions that take place on the exchange, is our best attempt to understand the markets which infallibly carry the ubiquitous risk of pandemonium.
And that’s why you need to consistently exercise your ability to steel your nerves and rely on the cold and dead, objective judgement. Then, when you need it most, your mental muscles are fit and prepared.
Ryan Holiday (one of the greatest thinkers of our time) says learning from your own mistakes is the easy part; learning from the mistakes of others is the real challenge. He also did this write up on John D. Rockefeller, which is an example of poise amid mayhem.
As year-end approaches, the groundwork needed for success becomes paramount. The behind-the-scenes hustle that makes the up front game look simple, even perhaps easy.
Friendly reminder: Tuesday is December 1st. Feel free to yell out your window.
The Exodus Strategy Session is signalling calm market conditions for the upcoming week, barring any major disruption. That means you ought to have plenty of capacity to tackle that project you’ve been meaning to do. I’m giving you permission to shut down the machines and get it done.
Godspeed lads.
Exodus members, the 107th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is published. Go check it out!
Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:12pm ESTComments Off on A Look Back on The Bullish Signal That Triggered Over The Weekend
Since a few of you are starting up your alcoholism already, ensuring your place at Thanksgiving dinner as the insufferable racist Uncle who smells like mutt shit, let’s take a look inside the Exodus Strategy session (ESS), shall we?
BEHOLD, An Executive Summary tailored for the clear and sharp:
Somewhere around June 2016 an adjustment was made to the index model inside ESS so that an extremely high reading (triggered when ‘bias score’ > Exodus Fundamental Score) becomes a bullish signal.
Also, as of tomorrow, close-of-market the Exodus 36-month Hybrid Overbought cycle, WHICH IS BULLISH, will complete. How sublime, when my model, Exodus, and The Turkey Gods all converge into a bullish signal?
Quite sublime really, the feeling of equanimity as all the distracting noise melts away.
I hope one day some of you can simplify your approach to trading, allowing only that which is raw and market generated to shape your bias. To attain this clarity in all of life’s decisions, really.
“Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, of all external events,”
In Summary, with Love and Grace from the turkey gods, Exodus wins again.
Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:22am ESTComments Off on All Signals Point To A Strong and Black Turkey Rally
Good day fellow iBankCoin readers. It is with a draconian approach to investing and trading that I report to you from the confines of iBC laboratories.
I’ve sentenced any chaff analysis to death, simplifying my review of the stocked market to the point of equanimity. For you see, without a calm mind, abject distractions like fake news can sully your decision process.
Business decisions must confront the brutal facts, turning over life’s stones and examining the creepy crawlers beneath. It is my belief that any rational person can make the right decision if presented with the facts. The key is sourcing objective information, which is why the Exodus Strategy Session focuses entirely on cold/dead/raw market-generated data.
Bear in mind, these are not rational people and their tainted minds will make it exceedingly difficult for them to make one quality business decision, let alone form the pile of good decisions necessary to become great.
Also bear in mind, that while Hamilton may not be your idea of quality theater, if you actually listen to the words the theater man said–they were quite positive. The crowd, on the other hand, did what they do best–boo and sneer and lose elections.
iBankCoin labs will press onward. The 106th Edition of Strategy Session triggered a signal on the index model. It’s calling for a calm drift, with a slight upward bias. Said objective reading comes ahead of Thanksgiving, the special day where Americans celebrate the most successful refugee takeover of a nation ever. Europeans moved on USA and filled it with their ideals, eliminating the original people and crisscrossing their pens with nonsensical oil pipelines. A fucking sham, to celebrate our migrant hoards while demonizing the Muslim hoards. Blind hypocrisy.
Nevertheless the Turkey Gods and our mortal Lords of capitalism, the Black Friday retailers often come with tidings for investors in the USA stock markets. So a bullish index model signal paired with Thanksgiving’s bullish proclivities sets the table for a feast of grande proportions.
