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Debating Selling in May

Greetings from America’s fertile crescent!

After a morning spent toiling away in the laboratory, it is will a sense of relief that we observe the latest results of the Index Model, which has flipped back to neutral after two weeks of bullish signalling.

Despite the precipitous fall in market prices last Wednesday, having a long bias has served our team well.  We pressed our longs and were rewarded.  Interestingly enough, there were subtle cues before the Wednesday liquidation to start working the other side of the tape.

If your inputs are objective and logical, you can confidently switch your bias in the heat of the action.

All of the planning that goes into my approach—the Sunday Strategy Sessions, the morning reports, Switchboard—is what allows me to trade well.  By doing my homework in public forum, it is my hope that something about what we do can make sense to someone starting out.  Like a nudge in the direction of what works for me.

There is so much garbage out there about trading.  So many people are basing their decisions on news reports or worse, gut instinct.

Every opportunity taken by the good folks of iBankCoin laboratory is decided by the algorithms inside Exodus and the scores generated by the Index Model.

With that being said, and heading into the last full week of May, we may raise some cash.  There are no clear bearish signals being offered.  However, June is the most bearish month of the year, per the $QQQ, see below:

Pair the upcoming seasonality with some of the bearish undertones noted in the 132nd Edition of Strategy Session (Exodus members, it is live now, go check it out) and you have a logical reason to raise a bit of cash.

When and how we shall do so, as always, is TBD.

There are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.  Perhaps the reaction to this economic event will help to tilt the debate of whether or not to sell IN May.

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WE’RE STILL BULLISH HERE

Greetings from the misty mountaintops of the Great Smokey Mountains friends!

Despite heavy rains and high winds closing many of the roads in the region, the team of botanists and scientists at iBankCoin labs have successfully reached our research facility high atop Hill 236.  The observation deck is above the cloudline and offers a serenity to the destruction below.

The same can be said about the stock market.  While index prices climb to great heights, there are casualties below.  Like an old tree meeting its fate, natural forces have eviscerated names in the energy and biotechnology space.  While the action is pervasive, it is our opinion that the destruction will be contained.

Deep inside the laboratory database, IndexModel is churning out a signal that hasn’t been seen since late-February. It tells a story of tranquility next week.  The computers are forecasting clear skies can calm winds—a calm after the very brief storm, if you will.

Also, the bullish signal issued by the algorithms inside Exodus extends its cycle through end-of-day Monday.  The signal has been a success so far, the performance of each major index since the call is shown below:

As you can see, anyone who went long equities when the software advised it is earnings gains. BRILLIANT!

While the headlines are flooded with outrage over our new authoritarian political regime, it becomes paramount that we continue to run our investment strategy and business without bias.  A sure way to lose your objective mind is to become disturbed by information.  Remember, the stock market is not out to get you.  It is simply the net representation of all human/robotic interactions with our free markets.  The information is presented as numbers.  Sometimes these numbers are plotted as lines and bars.  A bit deeper into the analysis and you are using candles.  Nevertheless, it is simply information.

The same goes for political happenings.  Remaining engaged is a good citizen’s responsibility, and if something genuinely affects your endeavors, then take action.  However, when you allow these political things to affect you emotionally, they are winning.  You are now approaching every task with a weaker mind.

The rain may be plentiful today, but soon the skies will open and the sun will shine on the loamy soils of America, blessing out fields with hearty crops.  With a bit of work, there will be a chicken in every pot, and a loaf of break on every table.  If you simply cannot work, for mental reasons, it is best you make you head west.  The hobo lifestyle is generally accepted in California city centers.  As for the south, everything they’ve said about southern hospitality is true.  The locals have been incredibly kind to our research staff.

Signals are bullish heading into the second week of scary May. Behave accordingly.

Distinguished members of Exodus, it is with humility and a refreshed mountain mind that the 130th Edition of Strategy Session was prepared.  It is live, go check it out now!

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Lab Results Are In: Markets Look Bullish Until Wednesday

A warm spring greetings from the scientists at iBankCoin laboratory!

With the last day of April underway, it is with humility and patience that the 129th Edition of Strategy Session was published inside Exodus.  Inside the report, all the latest algorithmic signals and data quirks inside the software were parsed and verified to help members get a sense of what the software is suggesting as we head into May.

Investors look at May differently because it has a catchy euphemism (May, away, it rhymes!) to describe the best course of action, which is to roam through nature as it blooms instead of being glued to the stock exchange.  However, enjoying woodlands, mountains, streams, beaches, and even cities is something we can do every month with the right tools.

If we ever find ourselves so emotionally attached to our stock market exposure that we cannot look away, that anxiety could be telling a story—you have too much skin in the game.

Perhaps it is time to explore other investments, like in people.  No, not owning humans, but giving them a kick in the right direction of doing what they do best and love.  Or buy a physical asset like land or a goat.

While the temptation to ‘go away’ in May is high, especially in the north where we emerge from months of unpleasant weather, you may want to stay dialed into the action during the first week of trade.  Most importantly, we have a Fed rate decision coming up on Wednesday and like 90% of investors are expecting Yellen and her team to leave rates unchanged.  If they instead bump their target borrowing rate up 25 basis points, we could see the markets take a liquidation hit.

April saw the NASDAQ start leaving many gaps behind.  It began moving higher during extended trade and holding the gains.  This is real strength that makes it difficult for sellers to execute on their losing positions.  In total, six gaps have been left unfilled during the month.

Combine the April action with the whispers of Exodus algorithms, and we have a recipe for remaining bullish into the Fed decision.  From then on, the plan is to improvise.

The laboratory inside Exodus is operating at peak efficiency heading into May.  All operators have manned their battle stations heading into May and with data as our guide, we are ready to engage.

Exodus members, the latest Strategy Session is live, go check it out and hit me up if you have any questions!

 

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Happy Earth Day from The Scientists at iBankCoin Laboratory

Earth day saw scientists and activists nationwide marching for science.  For whatever reason, some of the marches had socialist undertones, which is gross, but nevertheless the ultimate theme was preserving spaceship earth despite it being infested with sapiens.

Now is a good time to run through the interactive graphics Bloomberg published back in 2015, which help, with pictures, to demonstrate the human effect that is driving global warming.

Moving on, the 128th Edition of Exodus Strategy session has been published.  Much of what caused concern last week was negated.  Those topping patterns in Transports and Semiconductors turned out to be so obvious looking that they were fake (a classic reason of why technical analysis is a bit silly).  It was a good reminder that directional bias is best driven by statistical analysis—cold numbers, dead to the emotions of our monkey brains—statistics that offer advice in the most logical means available.

There is no bias heading into next week, we cannot call it.  April ends in a sloppy manner, with the last trading day of the month falling on a Monday, very sloppy.  Not good!  Therefore, this week sits in a strange realm where options have expired and the month is not ending and no major economic events are scheduled.

Perhaps the best course of action, if I may be so bold, is to explore the nearby woodlands.  Perhaps sit quiet and still for 10 minutes and watch the trees and streams come alive with life.  Then plug back into the internet/news/market matrix with your batteries refreshed.

Earth day is a serious day for science.  The good folks at iBC labs will continue working to ensure the day is not bastardized by the socialists—whose agenda best resembles that of the pigs on Animal Farm.  Ultimately, thus far, history has shown the capitalism jives better with science than any other ethos, because where science discovers utility, capitalism sees opportunity.  Opportunity which drives money flow, money flow which is funneled back into science.

Brilliant.

Everyone say a prayer today to our savior, capitalists and scientist employer Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) and buy one indulgence in the form of a Tesla share Monday to clear your soul of all the industrial red meat you consumed so far in 2017.

Wishing you another safe trip around the sun.

Sincerely,

Raul Santos

Chief Scientist and Head of Aquatic Landings

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U.S. Markets Have A Scary Look To Them Heading into OPEX

Greetings and Hoppy Easter!

Despite today being a Christian holy day, and Christians so far being the winning religion in the world, and Christians saying to spend today eating buttered lambs and candied hams, it is with honor and humility that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratory took some time to work inside the Exodus furnace rooms and generate a Strategy Session report.  And by the looks of these stock markets, it appears it is good we updated the models.

There is some sketchiness going on right now, just in time for post tax-day option expiration.

It seems so obvious that it may be a double head fake, but the two main sub-indices we monitor every Sunday have very stereotypical topping patterns in place, see below:

Pair that with the behavior of our broad indices as we wrapped up the holiday shortened week, and you have what looks like, visually, a sellers’ market.

Then there’s this 7-week long rotation into risk aversion sectors, which is difficult to show you, so instead view the 1-month performance of each sector, as demonstrated by the SPDR Select sector ETFs:

Then add in the fact that many investors, high on the hog after nearly a year of rallying, may have underestimated their tax liabilities, and you have a recipe for raising cash.

Another caveat, and the article escapes us, but about 8 days back an article was published saying market volatility may be gone forever.

LOLz

Wish it could be queued up, but after a cursory search of the interwebs and our cluttered desks, alas it must be taken as hearsay only.

There are some other small quirks, nothing major, but relevant nonetheless that are covered in the 127th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session—quirks which pertain to the algorithms inside the software.  Members, be sure to check it out!

As for the rest of you, rest up, for tomorrow the dark hand of volatility may resurrect itself from the cave.

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What Happened at United Airlines Is A Net Positive for Society

United airlines had to pull four paying customers off an airplane.  Was it dumb to let them board in the first place? Probably yes, as was busting a citizen’s jaw till he was leaking, as they say in urban centers.

There are people who think the old man should have just got off the plane.  Siding with the aggressors–whether airport police or gate goons–means you are insensitive or worse hateful.

LABELING!

Moving on…

The truth is life gets way harder then your flight plans being screwed over.  Some people are right on the edge when they travel.  If only there was an institution to blame…

We can agree most people are obsessed with what happened here, right?  It makes great viral news because travel stress is relatable.  So many things about traveling suck.  The lines, the smell, space allotted per human, dirty toilets, belligerent drunks and kids.  Relating to the struggle this man faced is so human of you.

But is what happened bad?  It depends on who you ask.  Airline jokes are the bread and butter of comedians.  Just thumb through your Instagram and  BEHOLD, JOKES:

Most of you probably have a group chat, yes?  Friends and such, YES YES!?  JOKES:

 

Go to your local comedy club this weekend.  You bet your ass there will be United Airline jokes.  The reckless behavior demonstrated by everyone on that plane is the type of fodder comedians hope for.

The quick thinkers at Southwest airlines actually tweaked their marketing, cashing in on a huge opportunity to target millennials.  MILLENNIALS, mind you, who love traveling more than owning possessions:

They say Cato ran his dead brother’s ashes through a sieve, looking for gold.  Perhaps there are some stoics on the branding team at $LUV, making delicious lemonade from their wounded brother’s ashes.

Are airport police going to suddenly increase their violence against flyers, nipping at their heels?  Corralling them like sheep? Doubtful.  There is/was little harm done to society by the event.

When you sum up the benefits (jokes, distraction from WW3, branding opportunity) and subtract out the consequences (bloodied jaw, bruised ego for the resist crowd) you see quite logically that the event was a success for humanity, overall.

In six months, the cell phone footage of a beta-male being preyed on by a team of alphas will cease to resonate in your mind.  There will be something new for you thumb suckers to be outraged about, or you will just be distracted by living your own life—an infinitely more rewarding task.

In the meantime, consider what sort of message you send by insulting and name calling the realists of the world.  It makes you the hater, bro.

So lets just leave people to their own mistakes, all of them.  Shaka

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iBanCoin Laboratory Flips To Neutral Amid War and Resistance

Last week was eventful.  Wednesday minutes revealed Yellen’s Fed is about to start making some balance sheet moves.  It spooked people.  Or perhaps, just as the minutes came out, establishment investors got the nudge, the wink, that 58 tomahawk missiles were about to go off–a firework display of epic proportions, no doubt.  But was anyone there to see it?

The weather broke.  After heavy storms passed, clear skies emerged into Friday and the week ended in a carefree manner.

Inside Exodus, the first hybrid oversold signal of the year completed.  The predictive robots inside Exodus won again, BEHOLD:

If you read the Executive Summary inside the Strategy Session, you could have milked the signal a bit better.  We improvised on the final day of the signal and sold after the FOMC minutes, instead of waiting until the end-of-day.  After all, what good is a plan if you do not stick to it?  Last week’s plan:

All that being said, heading into the upcoming week there are no model-based, statistical means of having a directional bias.  There’s no saying where this market is headed, objectively, from a statistical foundation.

There are subtle nuances that may tip the market’s hand a day, or perhaps few hours, before the market even knows it is about to move.

One is the NASDAQ Transportation index.  Look at that coil.  If it breaks lower, caution…

There are other little clues being revealed by the computer brains inside Exodus.  So while a generation of Americans has resorted to praising a reptile, I will continue to ask for mercy from the robots inside our spaceship.

And from The Leader

Both of which aren’t providing much guidance into next week.  Perhaps it is a sign, to pursue other industrious endeavors next week?

Developing…

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Models Updated, iBankCoin Labs is Cautiously Bullish into Month-end

Since there were free Exodus trials happening last week, and the general population was invited to explore the laboratory, it is publicly known that the system’s mother algo flagged hybrid oversold for the first time in 2017 last Wednesday.  A cursory glance at the statistics of this algorithm reveal that its prowess kicks in on the tail-end.  That means you have, all of you have the opportunity to participate in a cycle that has historically rewarded investors well.

Bear in mind, and do so with any statistical edge, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moving on, from thick beneath the cloud deck protecting Michigan, a state surrounded by fresh water reserves unmatched worldwide, mother ship has traveled deep into the Exodus machine to gather and parse its most relevant signals and update the IndexModel.  Said model remains neutral, therefore the good scientists at iBC labs fully assuage all forecasting responsibility to the Exodus algorithms, which point higher.

There are some contextual concerns heading into the final week of the final month of the first quarter under our new authoritarian regime.  For the past month, as we sashay along all-time highs, sector rotations have favored Utilities, a space anything but intended for the risk tolerant:

$XLU is the ticker symbol for Utilities, in case you are new to sector ETFs.  The only other index managing to stay positive over the same duration was Tech.  Sector rotations are flashing caution, yellow lights.

Next, the NASDAQ transportation index printed a failed auction several weeks back and lost the low end of its recent range.  This may settle down for a week or two, but unless bulls can negate the failed auction, it remains a risk point going forward:

On that same note, and occurring in a more subtle but disturbing manner, NASDAQ futures also printed a failed auction.  This one happened Tuesday morning, just before the trend day down.  This failed auction exceeded a swing high (all-time high) made during extended trading hours.  Typically, a swing made during extended trading hours is not to be trusted.  It is likely to be re-tested during regular trading hours.

When it was tested last Tuesday, the auction went silent.  No bidders.  It had failed.  Until buyers negate the failed auction on the NASDAQ, it remains a risk point:

So while Exodus is nudging us to remain bullish through April 12, damn near to tax day, it is to be done with full awareness that some sketchy stuff is happening in the markets.  Keep an eye on your risk and be ready to stop out if proven wrong.

It is with all these factors in mind that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratories issue our bullish outlook for the upcoming week.  Distinguished members of Exodus, it is with humility and honor that the 124th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session was produced.  It is live now, go check it out!

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Markets Stay Neutral After Quad-witching, A Look Inside Exodus Strategy Session

Two weeks back, iBC labs issued a public announcement that trouble was brewing.  Much like the nor’easter that drifted by last week, dire warnings were issued only to see little devastation and chaos come from it.  However, the short bias had utility.  Intra-day trading the short bias during the week spanning 3/6 – 3/10 yielded successful results.

For the week we had two neutral days, one range extension up, and two range extension downs.   It was one of the first weeks in 2017 where sellers had any traction.

From a swing basis, the trade was wrong.

Having the post FOMC-rate hike reaction as a proxy for whether this trade was right or wrong was useful, as it provided a definitive answer to the question.  It was wrong.

Under the surface of index prices there were some heavy blows to the energy and basic materials sectors, as well as financials and healthcare.  Take a look at some of the losses endured from 3/6 – 3/10 from several industries:

All that being said, we have headed higher since the call was made, and prices have recovered handsomely across the board.  Into the upcoming week, the Exodus Strategy Session offers no clear indication of where price is headed.  There is one piece of data inside Exodus worth noting.  The algorithmic Hybrid Chg % number, found on the Historical tab, has kept us on the right side of the tape for a very long time.  It has shown, simply, that buyers have pushed harder and more often than sellers.  Until we see larger absolute numbers populating this column, iBankCoin laboratories is content sticking with the trend:

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are happy to walk you through the many features of Exodus.  I recently had the opportunity to speak with a new member who is using Exodus to supplement his gold/index futures trading process.  We looked at the specific tools inside this massive toolkit that are best suited to his needs while also discussing some of the pitfalls to futures trading.

If you would like a one-on-one demonstration of the software, send an email to [email protected] or leave a comment below.  As iBankcoin grows under the diligent leadership of Senor Tropicana, and with zeropointnow expanding our reach like never before, it becomes paramount that new members become cohesive stock market operators, so we may dominate the financial markets.  Your success means a continued broadcast of truth and greatness—honest narratives of world happenings and MOAR—all while banking industrial quantities of coin along the way.

As for next week, iBC Labs have no data rolling in from the thousands of autonomous sensors deployed throughout the financial markets.  The economic calendar is slow, and we have a full two week of March left.  Therefore, we are content to issue a neutral rating, erring on the side of the bulls, going into the fourth week of the third month under our new American authoritarian regime.

Shine on you crazy diamonds

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Models Neutralize Ahead of The Most Complicated Week of 2017

Greetings from deep in the West Indies!

Despite spotty internet access island-wide, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratories managed to access our super computers nestled deep within the stable confines of the United States, from aboard MotherShip, virtually, and calibrate all systems and model scores ahead of what will be the most challenging week in 2017.  Here are the reasons why this third week of our third month under our new authoritarian regime is likely to be difficult for investors and how iBC labs expects markets to behave.

Friday is our first major option expiration of the year.  Not only will front month stock options expire, but also index futures.  While most active investors rolled forward to the June contracts last Thursday, there is still some activity taking place back on the March contract.  This means it is difficult to compile accurate volume information, and tools like cumulative delta can be skewed by large institutions moving their positions ahead to June.  It is by far the most frustrating week to trade, which is all the more reason to explore the tropics instead of trying to out compete the big boys.

Janet Yellen and her Fed are very likely going to lift their key borrowing rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.  For whatever reason, markets decided to price this in last week.  88.6% of traders down at the CME now believe the fed will hike during the March meeting, but two and a half weeks ago these same investors were in denial.  Not sure why the sudden change of heart, but we have been expecting a March hike for quite some time.   Regardless, this meeting is likely to stir up an otherwise docile index market, if only for a few hours.

Under the surface of strong broad indices, there has been serious carnage among several industry groups.  Exodus members, take a look at the 1-month performance of all industries, sorted to show the best and worst performances in order.  The beat downs have been far worse and encompassing than the rallies.  This likely means there is lots of worthless paper floating around as we head into option expiration.  This is likely to keep a lid on the market, at least through Friday.  This will allow Wall Street to rake some late/dumb money into their coffers.

The Russell 2000 gave up its attempted breakout.  The primary expectation after testing one side of value is to go test the other, which in this case is lower, and lower has a precarious, pocket-like, slippery look to it.  The Russell could get fast this week if it works down into the pocket, see below:

As for the upcoming week, the engineers and scientist at iBankCoin labs are issuing a neutral bias.  We have managed to gain a clear perspective from the island’s signal station after a long battle with the red coats.  The horizon is free of enemy ships, though our expectation is for the complications noted above to put a slow and steady bit of selling pressure on the tape until we hear from the Fed.

Matters are further complicated by the American’s daylight savings scheme where they arbitrary alter time in a bid to confuse everyone and also save candles.

Next week has all the markings of mayhem and confusion.  And while that may seem troubling, it may just blow past, allowing our impenetrable stock markets to continue shining, untarnished by significant down days because America is finally winning again.

Exodus members, the 122nd Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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