Wednesday, June 29, 2016
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Curious Thoughts

Routine Trumps Festivities: Month-End Strategy Is Live Inside Exodus


News of Brexit reached me inside the refugee camps of Electric Forest early Friday morning.  Celebration ensued, a British flag was hoisted, and it was immediately made clear I was claiming a swath of camp as my own.  My position was fortified by age [I am old] and gifts of Pabst Blue Ribbon.  Inside the mobile command unit I was taking many calls from Exodus members, eager to discuss the recent market happenings.

So I had to do a bit of adulting and leave the music festival 2-days early.  Initially I planned to connect to mothership remote and do my research from a tree stand.  Alas, a solid connection could not be achieved so I missed my favorite DJ, Bassnectar, opting instead to return to mothership last night and be ready today to dig into all the data produced by Friday’s knee-jerk reaction.

Because listen, and I had to have this talk with more than one Forester, once you’ve gone 84 consecutive weeks putting out Tier 1 research, never once skipping a beat, you do not abandon your post at a generation-critical time.  If I can instill one trait into my millennial readership, it would be routine.  Routine will be your rock.

So Exodus members, go check out this week’s Strategy Session.  I dug into the data, hardcore, and left all the news bites out.  If you want objectivity, this is your report to read.  If you have a hard time getting a feel for the info, drop me a comment below.  You can also reach me on snapchat [username- vCali] or Twitter/StockTwits @IndexModel.

This week’s report is literally my best research yet.  Behind our wall, the town is humming with information including a controversial stance from Le Fly.  Not everyone agrees on the best course of action going forward, but I will keep adhering to the guideposts of my model, diligently executing the decisions it makes.

Next week ought to be a Hold On kind of week:

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Research Reports from iBankCoin Laboratory Keep Investors One Step Ahead of June Markets


The Exodus Strategy Session has been freakishly accurate for the first two weeks of June.

Think of the Strategy Session as a weekly research report that takes into consideration all the predicitve analytics inside the software.

The report also contains my working auction theory model, which has been running live for 81 weeks straight.

Attention to detail is paramount to any model because garbage in = garbage out.  The minute factors are presented each Sunday, but they utimately help shape each week’s Thesis for The Week.  Think of it like an executive summary.  Below is last Sunday’s Executive Summary:

Raul’s bias score 3.33, Medium Bull*. Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week. Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

Two weeks ago the summary was still bullish, despite the market being on a pistol hot run, see below:

Raul’s bias score 3.58, Medium Bull*. Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices. Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower. Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day. For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

A great deal of passion goes into this research. It is one of two things your good pal RAUL takes seriously.  The other thing is my morning trading report.

The Executive Summary is a 10 second read based on 4-5 hours of research and is one more way you can outsource your analytics to the good folks at iBankCoin Exodus.

BONUS: When I have a conviction bias, I let it be known on snapchat.  For these updates, follow me.  My user name is VCali.

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Tomorrow Bulls Will Be Treated To The ‘Gap-N-Trap’


There was something perverted about the way we sold off into the bell today. It was slow, methodical, distribution.  It almost felt German.  Not too much pressure because one mustn’t startle the herd.  But someone was cashing up.

Perhaps their signals read like mine.  The Exodus Overbought reading 9 days back performed sublime, adhering to it’s historical standards.  But it’s opportunity is complete, and now a more sinister model, one forged on a pile of painful lessons, fuck ups, and enlightenment is coming alive.  Like Victor Frankenstein, I watch my monster start to twitch and quiver.


I wish my conviction was rock hard, but I have three contingencies working against me.

  1. We printed a weak high today on the NASDAQ at 4532
  2. Swing high happened during Globex which usually doesn’t stick
  3. the tape is slow, like really freaking s l o w

We are at an inflection point in either direction.  Good money will be made over the next few days.  The key is being on the right side of the tape.  My models say down, so I must be methodical and bet the down move.


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The Markings of An Inflection Point


Quick note on what I am seeing.

First, last Friday we printed a normal day.  Normal days are anything but ‘normal’ …they only occur 6.36% of the time, according to my last study.  A normal day sets a large initial balance then never breaks it.  They tend to show up at-or-near inflection points.

Next, we had an extreme spike on the NAS100 TRIN Monday morning–a spike higher than any level seen since 12/31/2015:


We also printed a neutral day yesterday.  Another low probability day type, though not quite as rare–occurring 23.32% of the time according to past stats.

I am looking for slightly higher prices before I book a few longs and initiate shorts.  I may be playing it too slow, but I will begin working the short side up around 4538.50 /NQ_F


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Closing Out The Month of May Clueless


The 79th edition of Exodus Strategy Session has been completed, and after reviewing all the data, there is not much to go on.  Models are coming back neutral.  The only standout context heading into next week is what we saw in market rotations last week–investors abandoned safe haven sectors in exchange for allocations slightly higher up the risk profile, check it out:


There are a few other nuances that may tip the market’s hand next week.  They’re covered in the Strategy Session.  I elaborate on it a bit more, but basically we can also watch the NASDAQ transportation index, which has been a decent tell in the past.

You can also attend this week’s Boot Camp because we’re all going to put our minds together and hash out exactly what’s going on inside the market during the week-long seminar.  Here’s the link if you haven’t signed up yet:

If you decide to roll solo, taking the markets on via your own device, I understand.  Be sure to check in with my morning reports.  We’ll take it one day at a time.

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Mother’s Day Analysis Reveals A Chill Market With One Twist That Could Send Investors Running


News items, earnings, economic numbers, prevailing sentiment.  There is so much information available to the investor.  Every day you can choose to be inundated with as much [or as little] as you like.  I read every word written on iBankCoin daily, for example, while also enjoying CNBC during lunch.  I have the hots for Kayla Tausche mainly, but I also like a dose of the station’s content.  However, I live by the following motto:

“Objective judgement, now at this very moment

Unselfish actions, now at this very moment

Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, for all external events

That is all you need.” – Marcus Aurelius

Thus I prepare a detailed analysis every Sunday because data is cold, dead, and logical.  It allows me to wipe my lenses clean and take a look at what’s going on inside the market.  I do this every week and share my findings with the members of Exodus.  My 77th edition of the Strategy Session has been published.  Non-members can access today’s report free, because we have trials going on until midnight New York.  Here’s a link. Don’t miss out on this:

Ah yes, the twist, I almost forgot.  We have a Friday the 13th this week, so stay sharp 0_o

Happy Mother’s Day everyone!  Be good to the Moms in your life.  Prepare them foods, embellish the home with floral arrangements, and celebrate their being moms and stuff.

UPDATE: a cantankerous lad on Stocktwits provided Friday the 13th stats on the SPX.  I haven’t verified his findings, but allegedly (and I have no idea the sample size) Friday the 13th is green 60.5% of the time with a median return of +0.24%.  So any superstition associate with the day/date is ‘pretty stupid’.

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May Is Coming For You


All of our worst fears will materialize in May.  Lawns, inundated with dandi-lions and grubs.  Biker gangs, lawn-jobbing the soft turf.  Grass clippings, filling sinus cavities, swelling faces into amorphous balloons.

Spring brought the out the heathen speculator, and nature intends to make a correction to the economic tilt benefiting stock pickers.  It would behoove you to load up on gold bricks, allergy pills, and dry foods.  Then, from the safety of your air-tight shelter, attend the Investor Boot Camp in May.  Unlike other investor conferences, no human or elemental contact is necessary.  You can elevate your game from the safety of your shelter, away from the deadly germs, viruses, and allergies.

See Also: Deadly Zika Virus Claims Life in Puerto Rico

You have, all of you have, perhaps 3-4 days to flee the stocked market and board the ark.  Then, my best guess, is all hell breaks loose.

Welcome to May.

Distinguished members of Exodus, the latest Exodus Strategy Session, my 76th iteration, has been published.  Be sure to check it out.  Questions will be answered in the order they are received. Cheers!

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FOMC Rate Decision Coming Up: Nobody Expects a Hike


Yellen and her league of bankers have done a good job of talking down any likelihood of a rate hike this week.  30-day Fed Fund futures [say that 5 times fast] are pricing a 97.7% probability rates stay unchanged this Wednesday:


Nevertheless, market direction will be revealed after the 2pm announcement, like it always is, when the algos send an EKG pulse through the marketplace.  It’s like sonar.  It blasts out, reads the sea bed [resting orders] then determines direction for the next 2-4 days.  The more times you trade through it, the better you get at joining the winning team.

While we’re all at the mercy of our algorithmic overlords, there are still some subtle clues to glean from the financial complex before it all goes down.  I have highlighted those little nuances in this week’s Exodus Strategy session, which I just published.  It comes complimentary with our software, so members be sure to check it out!

Should a hike somehow be revealed, everyone will be crushed.  Their faith in the continuous dialogue coming from The Fed will be shattered.  Chaos will ensue–riots in the city center, bank runs, cats and dogs living in harmony!

But it probably won’t happen so enjoy a nice clamato on this springtime Sunday and chill baby, chill.

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Could Chyna’s Death Be a Bearish Omen?


Wrestling legend Chyna passes away, then the Shanghai index drops over 2% the next day.  Coincidence?

There are no signs Chyna intended to die, based on what police found inside her apartment — and she’d been deceased for at least a day … TMZ Sports has learned.

Law enforcement sources tell us there was no suicide note left in her Redondo Beach, CA home. We’re also told it appears the WWE legend had passed away a “day or two” prior to Wednesday evening … when a friend found her body. The last known contact she had with anyone happened on Sunday evening.

As we first reported … there were no illegal drugs, but officers did find legal prescription bottles. Our sources described the number of bottles as 3 or 4 … “nothing out of the ordinary.” Also, the bottles were not emptied.

We’re told several neighbors told investigators they suspected “overdose” as the cause of death since she’d seemed “under the influence” lately.

Source: TMZ Staff, TMZ

The Far East shivers when the Ninth Wonder of The World falls.  Stay sharp.


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Next Week Is All About Technology


Forget about the cavemen in Saudi Arabia and Iran, living 200 years in the past, fighting over a low-value commodity with zero craft value.  These troglodytes will continue to fart on each other for pleasure and throw their people off skyscrapers for eternity.  Meanwhile, here in the United States, the best country on the strongest continent, we’re going to be hearing earnings from our supreme inventors: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix?! and more.

And while I have no clue what sort of reaction we’ll see after these names report, I know it will have a significant impact on where we price the NASDAQ.  So I expect the index will lead our direction this week.  Keep an eye on it.

Exodus members, the 74th Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Inside it I point to another layer of context that will be helpful to navigating the market next week, a potential industrial bellwether which could tip off the market’s hand before we see all these tech earnings unfold.  Check it out!

As for the rest of yous, know this–USA taxes are due tomorrow.  Do not be upset if you pay taxes.  That means you’ve worked hard at your craft and it has earned you money. Taxes are not paying for something you don’t need or use.  You literally live in the best governmental structure mankind have ever created.  If you’re simply a W-2 Turbo taxer and due for a major refund [which you likely already claimed] shame on you–you’ve provided the government a zero interest loan all year.  That money could have been in your savings account earnings 0.0025% man, wise up!

Bear in mind everyone, that tax day is often a pivot point in the market, so stay sharp.

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