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Curious Thoughts

Models Remain Bullish; Cool Heads Will Prevail

One of these legendary investors that is often quoted said something along the lines of, “inaction is often a challenge.”

Many people derive their worth from their employment or however they sustain themselves.  I think this is not a healthy way of thinking, however it is prevalent.  This can drive people to trade for the sake of taking action.

The best play in 2017 has been to sit tight, invested, and do nothing.

According to the latest results from iBankCoin laboratories, this course of action ought to serve you well into month end.

The wild card on the week comes Tuesday morning, when we hear the GDP reading.  Perhaps, just maybe, and economic data point could throw a wrench in this pretty impressive rally we’ve had since the victory of our new authoritarian regime.

We shall see, but for now…


Exodus members, the 120th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!


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Opinion: Investors Are Majorly Underestimating How Live The Next Fed Meeting Is

After watching Yellen testify to congress last week, my listening comprehension skills led me to believe the March Fed meeting will be live, meaning I expect a rate hike.  However, investors down at the CME are only pricing a 17.7% chance of a lift when The Fed convenes March 15th:

What gives?  While equities showed little reaction to her testimony, bonds certainly behaved, albeit briefly, like a hike was coming.

The stock market is ripping to the upside in a grotesque and unobstructed manner, Detroit is actually transitioning into a functioning city (single tear), and the housing market is competitive as I’ve ever witnessed.  For fucked sake, DAVID HALL, the most diabolical mortgage peddler of the housing crisis is back on the radio.

There is an unreasonably low expectation of a March rate hike.  My opinion.


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iBankCoin Labs Still Bullish on US Markets

Good day and greetings from the unseasonably warm northern territories!  The scientists at iBankCoin labs would like to thank the robots inside Exodus for their continued service and for keeping us on the right side of the tape in 2017.  After running a full diagnostic evaluation of the components inside Exodus, iBC labs is issuing a bullish outlook for the upcoming week.

Beware of the FOMC and their Minutes, set for release Wednesday afternoon.  Also, enjoy a holiday Monday as markets observe President’s Day. Perhaps use your time to pursue other industrious efforts, after all it’s still a Monday.

The world may be heating up enough to put Miami underwater, desperate-for-water Californians are enjoying apocalyptic rain in a cruel and ironic way, but the good and boring north is just as pleasant as a peach.


Exodus members, the 119th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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iBC Labs Is Once Again Bullish

Greetings and hello from the battery room inside Exodus.  All systems are calibrated, the furnaces are filled with coal, and the cogs greased.  Upon incorporating the data generated last week by billions of dollars’ worth of trades into the working auction theory model, a bullish signaling was generated.

If you recall, the model ran bullish for four consecutive weeks, then flipped neutral last week.  Now it is firmly entrenched in the bull camp, prepared to saunter higher at an aloof rate while underlying stocks occasionally explode higher.

Interestingly, as Fly noted yesterday, Exodus is dialed into the market well right now—spotting its opportunity in a flawless manner.  Had you simply adhered to the signalling inside Exodus, you wouldn’t have grown skeptical of the market last week, like me.

However, and in part thanks to the hybrid scoring system inside Exodus, my foray into shorting the market last week came to a sudden end Thursday when the bull snorted and heaved higher.

The only problem is I raised come cash on Monday.  Said funds will need to be reallocated.  This will not be easy at these elevations.


iBC Labs is back to bullish heading into OPEX week.  Look for a shakeout early on, but by Wednesday bulls assert their dominance.


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A Closer Look at The Inner Workings of The Market, Up Here at All-Time Highs

Not many spend time to understand the complications of the stock market—all the small mechanics behind price and time.

Today they tell a story of health and virility.

But that small slip lower we experienced last week followed by an overexertion from the bull, el toro, created context, or a story, that merited exploring a short bias.

Leaning short was effective several times this week, intra-day.  Yet we pressed higher.  When we came into my favorite Fibonacci extension, which is a fun place for algos to run stops, the level became a last stand for short sellers.

Sellers either defend the level or lose the first full week in the second full month under our new Authoritarian Regime.

It made sense to also go swing short, so I put some QID on the books.


The market confirmed it was a decent entry.  We sold off on Tuesday from those levels.

But alas, here we are, lingering above my Fibs.  And the longer we do, the more likely this leg of the rally is the real deal and not just a petty stop run.


So my bias intra-day keeps pivoting.  This afternoon it was long.

The complications, the context, the story—whatever you want to call it, can form an objective set of observations for making market decisions.  Presented with the right facts, any one of you could make the right decision.

Just for fun I ran through all my afternoon observations over on the old snapchat.  Check it out if you want, username vCali.

Disclaimer: lots of random stuff on my snap story too

I’m keeping the QID to stay swing short the NAS for now, but it’s on its heels.


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After Solid Winning Streak, iBankCoin Labs Flips To Neutral

It takes a certain humility to admit when you have no edge in a competition.  Like Super Bowl squares, no edge, I’m not buying.  Or predicting how Tesla will behave after their Wednesday earnings announcement.

I can’t call it.

After 4 weeks of bullish predictions from the IndexModel, it has flipped to neutral.  Like a bird on a wire, it would rather observe and chat than venture onto the busy street for snacks.

Heading into the second week of the second month of the first year under our new American authoritarian regime, which is cool, we love our leader ::quivers:: there is no call from iBankCoin labs.

Enjoy your American football match.

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Hard To Argue with Logic: iBankCoin Labs Find No Reason for Concern Heading into Week Two

Greetings from the iBankCoin labs watchtower.  At over 15,000 vertical feet of elevation, the observation deck allows for spectacular views of the financial landscape, and with it an honest conception for world affairs.

The market tipped its hand Wednesday, just enough for the supercomputers inside Exodus to alert members of an impending blitzkrieg from the bulls.  It looks like bullish dominance will continue to assert itself next week—but perhaps in a more subtle way.

There is likely to be more action in the momentum space than the indices.  When we float around all-time highs, there usually isn’t much opportunity for a fella like me to earn money.  My market profile fire levels are are left below, and the rotations are often small and slow.

If I needed to engage the market next week, intra-day, to extract moneys, my attention would be on the Momentum screen inside Exodus.  I would refresh it at 11am and again at 1:30pm and look for names setting up a nice pullback after an initial surge.  I would buy said pullback, ride it back to intra-day highs (god willing) then GTFO and move to the next one.

The best part about building your own model using quality data, like the raw futures data I pipe in from IQFeed and the elegant algorithms inside Exodus, is you trust it and know when to act.  There is no better approach to engaging the market than a consistently objective one.

Most people want to be told what to do.  Unfortunately, they depend on others.  I depend on robots.  My robots.  It’s better that way.

If you are good to your robots, they will be good to you.  Keep them calibrated and oiled.  Offer them zero time off but also a comfortable place to call home and appreciation for their service.

Despite my headline boldly claiming ‘no reason for concern’ there is one.  The Russell 2000 began to turn lower at a curious level last week.  It is the weakest looking index.  Keep an eye on it this week to see if it can lead lower.

Otherwise, all is well in 2017.  A new leadership shall be ushered in soon, one that promises to make the USA stronger than ever, and investors seem emboldened by these prospects. Yes, the rally is long-in-tooth, but the music is still playing—so keep dancing—monkey.


Exodus members, the 113th Edition of Strategy Session is published.  Go check it out now.  Three days hence its relevance is less.  By Friday, practically useless.  Now is when to read it.  Go.



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NASDAQ Prints Powerful Trend Day To End First Week of 2017

Welcome to Trend Day.  The first and second rule of Trend Day are you do not talk about Trend Day:

Third rule of Trend Day: engage every pullback.  Fourth rule: always keep a runner.  Fifth rule: one trade at a time, fellas.  Sixth rule: trades are intra-day only.  No overnight shit.  Seventh rule: trends will go on as long as they have to.  And the eight and final rule: if this is your first Trend Day, you have to trade.

Ladies and gentlemen, just two days after Exodus algorithms ended the Krampus Alert, and on the final day of trade in this first magnificent week of 2017, the NASDAQ goes out and prints a delicious and powerful trend day.

I am so fortunate to understand auction theory—the cornerstone of my trading approach—and how to supercharge it with “The Fly’s” fucking time machine.  What for most was just another data point in a sea of information was for yours truly a nudge to flip my bias:

notes-jan2017 historical-jan4-2017

Trend days are the most powerful day type in auction theory.  They tell us something going forward.  They also offer tons of reward to their riders.  In short, I did my job, and now I want to go back on vacation.


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The Precision Instruments Inside iBankCoin Labs Have Been Re-calibrated; Welcome To 2017

Greetings from high atop the Rocky Mountains!

The air is sweet, the sun is hot, the ground is cold.  It all serves to refresh the mind and invigorate the soul heading into 2017.  This year will be much more challenging than 2016.  First of all, numerically, we are leaving a year divisible by 3 for one that isn’t.  So the number gods will not be shining down upon us during this trip around the sun.

Then then we have a geopolitical upheaval in progress which will surly rattle the markets, eventually, at some point.

However, at iBankCoin laboratories we do not expend precious energy and resources trying to predict how worldy events, well beyond our control, will affect stock prices.  Instead we focus on the raw and objective, pure data generated by the cumulative interaction of humans—the natural order of the markets—the last pure beacon of capitalism, to predict 5 to 10 days at a time.

Prediction is much like driving at night.  You only see the road your headlights illuminate, but you can make it across the entire country this way.  That is our approach to the stock market.  Take it one day, one week, one Exodus cycle at a time.

This method has severed us well.  There was a long-running win streak into the summer, including being short into the Brexit vote, covering and going long into one of the hardest rallies of the year–all decisions objectively driven by the IndexModel and Exodus.  It also offered the short bias heading into Christmas, an uncomfortable posture into a traditionally bullish time.

The 112th edition of Exodus Strategy session has been published, and inside it preparations have been made heading into January—often an ultra-violent month for markets.  With any luck, and a hard line penchant for objective execution, we can nail some big moves this year.  Exodus members (I see there are many new distinguished gentlemen, welcome) go check out the latest strategy session and if you have any questions, ask away.  It may take a few days for a response as I am starting the year off barreling down giant rocks with a board strapped to my feet.

The first matter of business will be deciding when to cover the rest of my NASDAQ short position trade.  I took a scale into Friday, risk has been neutralized–now the goal is to earn some creme whilst sashaying across the USA.

Let’s make the markets cry for their mammy this year.

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Research from iBankCoin Labs Paints a Rosy Picture Heading into The December Interest Rate Hike

The results are in.  After tabulating the data from last week’s rally and inputting forecasting metrics for next week, the IndexModel is issuing a winter rally warning.


The model registered some of the highest scores ever, bested only by the extreme bullishness seen in early April.

Fed fund futures over at the CME show a 94.9% probability of a rate hike Wednesday from the FOMC.  Thus far, despite the high probability of an event historically seen as bearish for equities, markets are careening higher.

This may be due to investor perception on the economy being robust enough to sustain a rate hike, and that being bullish.  Or, this could be the bow on a legacy stock market for President Obama, who gave us the finest stock market of our lifetimes.

At iBC labs we don’t particularly care to dwell on the ‘whys’ of the world, instead focusing on expectations and how we intend to extract currency from the market regardless of its behavior.

Heading into next week, the plan will be to find ways to go long before the Fed meeting, then to use the post-meeting reaction to dictate our bias into the second half of the week.  Simple.

The world is aglow, tinted rose by the stock market gods.  The best of times, enjoy!

Exodus members, the 109th Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Go check it out!

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