Home / Curious Thoughts

Curious Thoughts

Models Updated, iBankCoin Labs is Cautiously Bullish into Month-end

Since there were free Exodus trials happening last week, and the general population was invited to explore the laboratory, it is publicly known that the system’s mother algo flagged hybrid oversold for the first time in 2017 last Wednesday.  A cursory glance at the statistics of this algorithm reveal that its prowess kicks in on the tail-end.  That means you have, all of you have the opportunity to participate in a cycle that has historically rewarded investors well.

Bear in mind, and do so with any statistical edge, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moving on, from thick beneath the cloud deck protecting Michigan, a state surrounded by fresh water reserves unmatched worldwide, mother ship has traveled deep into the Exodus machine to gather and parse its most relevant signals and update the IndexModel.  Said model remains neutral, therefore the good scientists at iBC labs fully assuage all forecasting responsibility to the Exodus algorithms, which point higher.

There are some contextual concerns heading into the final week of the final month of the first quarter under our new authoritarian regime.  For the past month, as we sashay along all-time highs, sector rotations have favored Utilities, a space anything but intended for the risk tolerant:

$XLU is the ticker symbol for Utilities, in case you are new to sector ETFs.  The only other index managing to stay positive over the same duration was Tech.  Sector rotations are flashing caution, yellow lights.

Next, the NASDAQ transportation index printed a failed auction several weeks back and lost the low end of its recent range.  This may settle down for a week or two, but unless bulls can negate the failed auction, it remains a risk point going forward:

On that same note, and occurring in a more subtle but disturbing manner, NASDAQ futures also printed a failed auction.  This one happened Tuesday morning, just before the trend day down.  This failed auction exceeded a swing high (all-time high) made during extended trading hours.  Typically, a swing made during extended trading hours is not to be trusted.  It is likely to be re-tested during regular trading hours.

When it was tested last Tuesday, the auction went silent.  No bidders.  It had failed.  Until buyers negate the failed auction on the NASDAQ, it remains a risk point:

So while Exodus is nudging us to remain bullish through April 12, damn near to tax day, it is to be done with full awareness that some sketchy stuff is happening in the markets.  Keep an eye on your risk and be ready to stop out if proven wrong.

It is with all these factors in mind that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratories issue our bullish outlook for the upcoming week.  Distinguished members of Exodus, it is with humility and honor that the 124th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session was produced.  It is live now, go check it out!

Comments »

Markets Stay Neutral After Quad-witching, A Look Inside Exodus Strategy Session

Two weeks back, iBC labs issued a public announcement that trouble was brewing.  Much like the nor’easter that drifted by last week, dire warnings were issued only to see little devastation and chaos come from it.  However, the short bias had utility.  Intra-day trading the short bias during the week spanning 3/6 – 3/10 yielded successful results.

For the week we had two neutral days, one range extension up, and two range extension downs.   It was one of the first weeks in 2017 where sellers had any traction.

From a swing basis, the trade was wrong.

Having the post FOMC-rate hike reaction as a proxy for whether this trade was right or wrong was useful, as it provided a definitive answer to the question.  It was wrong.

Under the surface of index prices there were some heavy blows to the energy and basic materials sectors, as well as financials and healthcare.  Take a look at some of the losses endured from 3/6 – 3/10 from several industries:

All that being said, we have headed higher since the call was made, and prices have recovered handsomely across the board.  Into the upcoming week, the Exodus Strategy Session offers no clear indication of where price is headed.  There is one piece of data inside Exodus worth noting.  The algorithmic Hybrid Chg % number, found on the Historical tab, has kept us on the right side of the tape for a very long time.  It has shown, simply, that buyers have pushed harder and more often than sellers.  Until we see larger absolute numbers populating this column, iBankCoin laboratories is content sticking with the trend:

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are happy to walk you through the many features of Exodus.  I recently had the opportunity to speak with a new member who is using Exodus to supplement his gold/index futures trading process.  We looked at the specific tools inside this massive toolkit that are best suited to his needs while also discussing some of the pitfalls to futures trading.

If you would like a one-on-one demonstration of the software, send an email to vince@blacklightanalytics.com or leave a comment below.  As iBankcoin grows under the diligent leadership of Senor Tropicana, and with zeropointnow expanding our reach like never before, it becomes paramount that new members become cohesive stock market operators, so we may dominate the financial markets.  Your success means a continued broadcast of truth and greatness—honest narratives of world happenings and MOAR—all while banking industrial quantities of coin along the way.

As for next week, iBC Labs have no data rolling in from the thousands of autonomous sensors deployed throughout the financial markets.  The economic calendar is slow, and we have a full two week of March left.  Therefore, we are content to issue a neutral rating, erring on the side of the bulls, going into the fourth week of the third month under our new American authoritarian regime.

Shine on you crazy diamonds

Comments »

Models Neutralize Ahead of The Most Complicated Week of 2017

Greetings from deep in the West Indies!

Despite spotty internet access island-wide, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratories managed to access our super computers nestled deep within the stable confines of the United States, from aboard MotherShip, virtually, and calibrate all systems and model scores ahead of what will be the most challenging week in 2017.  Here are the reasons why this third week of our third month under our new authoritarian regime is likely to be difficult for investors and how iBC labs expects markets to behave.

Friday is our first major option expiration of the year.  Not only will front month stock options expire, but also index futures.  While most active investors rolled forward to the June contracts last Thursday, there is still some activity taking place back on the March contract.  This means it is difficult to compile accurate volume information, and tools like cumulative delta can be skewed by large institutions moving their positions ahead to June.  It is by far the most frustrating week to trade, which is all the more reason to explore the tropics instead of trying to out compete the big boys.

Janet Yellen and her Fed are very likely going to lift their key borrowing rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.  For whatever reason, markets decided to price this in last week.  88.6% of traders down at the CME now believe the fed will hike during the March meeting, but two and a half weeks ago these same investors were in denial.  Not sure why the sudden change of heart, but we have been expecting a March hike for quite some time.   Regardless, this meeting is likely to stir up an otherwise docile index market, if only for a few hours.

Under the surface of strong broad indices, there has been serious carnage among several industry groups.  Exodus members, take a look at the 1-month performance of all industries, sorted to show the best and worst performances in order.  The beat downs have been far worse and encompassing than the rallies.  This likely means there is lots of worthless paper floating around as we head into option expiration.  This is likely to keep a lid on the market, at least through Friday.  This will allow Wall Street to rake some late/dumb money into their coffers.

The Russell 2000 gave up its attempted breakout.  The primary expectation after testing one side of value is to go test the other, which in this case is lower, and lower has a precarious, pocket-like, slippery look to it.  The Russell could get fast this week if it works down into the pocket, see below:

As for the upcoming week, the engineers and scientist at iBankCoin labs are issuing a neutral bias.  We have managed to gain a clear perspective from the island’s signal station after a long battle with the red coats.  The horizon is free of enemy ships, though our expectation is for the complications noted above to put a slow and steady bit of selling pressure on the tape until we hear from the Fed.

Matters are further complicated by the American’s daylight savings scheme where they arbitrary alter time in a bid to confuse everyone and also save candles.

Next week has all the markings of mayhem and confusion.  And while that may seem troubling, it may just blow past, allowing our impenetrable stock markets to continue shining, untarnished by significant down days because America is finally winning again.

Exodus members, the 122nd Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Comments »

Models Remain Bullish; Cool Heads Will Prevail

One of these legendary investors that is often quoted said something along the lines of, “inaction is often a challenge.”

Many people derive their worth from their employment or however they sustain themselves.  I think this is not a healthy way of thinking, however it is prevalent.  This can drive people to trade for the sake of taking action.

The best play in 2017 has been to sit tight, invested, and do nothing.

According to the latest results from iBankCoin laboratories, this course of action ought to serve you well into month end.

The wild card on the week comes Tuesday morning, when we hear the GDP reading.  Perhaps, just maybe, and economic data point could throw a wrench in this pretty impressive rally we’ve had since the victory of our new authoritarian regime.

We shall see, but for now…


Exodus members, the 120th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!


Comments »

Opinion: Investors Are Majorly Underestimating How Live The Next Fed Meeting Is

After watching Yellen testify to congress last week, my listening comprehension skills led me to believe the March Fed meeting will be live, meaning I expect a rate hike.  However, investors down at the CME are only pricing a 17.7% chance of a lift when The Fed convenes March 15th:

What gives?  While equities showed little reaction to her testimony, bonds certainly behaved, albeit briefly, like a hike was coming.

The stock market is ripping to the upside in a grotesque and unobstructed manner, Detroit is actually transitioning into a functioning city (single tear), and the housing market is competitive as I’ve ever witnessed.  For fucked sake, DAVID HALL, the most diabolical mortgage peddler of the housing crisis is back on the radio.

There is an unreasonably low expectation of a March rate hike.  My opinion.


Comments »

iBankCoin Labs Still Bullish on US Markets

Good day and greetings from the unseasonably warm northern territories!  The scientists at iBankCoin labs would like to thank the robots inside Exodus for their continued service and for keeping us on the right side of the tape in 2017.  After running a full diagnostic evaluation of the components inside Exodus, iBC labs is issuing a bullish outlook for the upcoming week.

Beware of the FOMC and their Minutes, set for release Wednesday afternoon.  Also, enjoy a holiday Monday as markets observe President’s Day. Perhaps use your time to pursue other industrious efforts, after all it’s still a Monday.

The world may be heating up enough to put Miami underwater, desperate-for-water Californians are enjoying apocalyptic rain in a cruel and ironic way, but the good and boring north is just as pleasant as a peach.


Exodus members, the 119th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Comments »

iBC Labs Is Once Again Bullish

Greetings and hello from the battery room inside Exodus.  All systems are calibrated, the furnaces are filled with coal, and the cogs greased.  Upon incorporating the data generated last week by billions of dollars’ worth of trades into the working auction theory model, a bullish signaling was generated.

If you recall, the model ran bullish for four consecutive weeks, then flipped neutral last week.  Now it is firmly entrenched in the bull camp, prepared to saunter higher at an aloof rate while underlying stocks occasionally explode higher.

Interestingly, as Fly noted yesterday, Exodus is dialed into the market well right now—spotting its opportunity in a flawless manner.  Had you simply adhered to the signalling inside Exodus, you wouldn’t have grown skeptical of the market last week, like me.

However, and in part thanks to the hybrid scoring system inside Exodus, my foray into shorting the market last week came to a sudden end Thursday when the bull snorted and heaved higher.

The only problem is I raised come cash on Monday.  Said funds will need to be reallocated.  This will not be easy at these elevations.


iBC Labs is back to bullish heading into OPEX week.  Look for a shakeout early on, but by Wednesday bulls assert their dominance.


Comments »

A Closer Look at The Inner Workings of The Market, Up Here at All-Time Highs

Not many spend time to understand the complications of the stock market—all the small mechanics behind price and time.

Today they tell a story of health and virility.

But that small slip lower we experienced last week followed by an overexertion from the bull, el toro, created context, or a story, that merited exploring a short bias.

Leaning short was effective several times this week, intra-day.  Yet we pressed higher.  When we came into my favorite Fibonacci extension, which is a fun place for algos to run stops, the level became a last stand for short sellers.

Sellers either defend the level or lose the first full week in the second full month under our new Authoritarian Regime.

It made sense to also go swing short, so I put some QID on the books.


The market confirmed it was a decent entry.  We sold off on Tuesday from those levels.

But alas, here we are, lingering above my Fibs.  And the longer we do, the more likely this leg of the rally is the real deal and not just a petty stop run.


So my bias intra-day keeps pivoting.  This afternoon it was long.

The complications, the context, the story—whatever you want to call it, can form an objective set of observations for making market decisions.  Presented with the right facts, any one of you could make the right decision.

Just for fun I ran through all my afternoon observations over on the old snapchat.  Check it out if you want, username vCali.

Disclaimer: lots of random stuff on my snap story too

I’m keeping the QID to stay swing short the NAS for now, but it’s on its heels.


Comments »

After Solid Winning Streak, iBankCoin Labs Flips To Neutral

It takes a certain humility to admit when you have no edge in a competition.  Like Super Bowl squares, no edge, I’m not buying.  Or predicting how Tesla will behave after their Wednesday earnings announcement.

I can’t call it.

After 4 weeks of bullish predictions from the IndexModel, it has flipped to neutral.  Like a bird on a wire, it would rather observe and chat than venture onto the busy street for snacks.

Heading into the second week of the second month of the first year under our new American authoritarian regime, which is cool, we love our leader ::quivers:: there is no call from iBankCoin labs.

Enjoy your American football match.

Comments »

Hard To Argue with Logic: iBankCoin Labs Find No Reason for Concern Heading into Week Two

Greetings from the iBankCoin labs watchtower.  At over 15,000 vertical feet of elevation, the observation deck allows for spectacular views of the financial landscape, and with it an honest conception for world affairs.

The market tipped its hand Wednesday, just enough for the supercomputers inside Exodus to alert members of an impending blitzkrieg from the bulls.  It looks like bullish dominance will continue to assert itself next week—but perhaps in a more subtle way.

There is likely to be more action in the momentum space than the indices.  When we float around all-time highs, there usually isn’t much opportunity for a fella like me to earn money.  My market profile fire levels are are left below, and the rotations are often small and slow.

If I needed to engage the market next week, intra-day, to extract moneys, my attention would be on the Momentum screen inside Exodus.  I would refresh it at 11am and again at 1:30pm and look for names setting up a nice pullback after an initial surge.  I would buy said pullback, ride it back to intra-day highs (god willing) then GTFO and move to the next one.

The best part about building your own model using quality data, like the raw futures data I pipe in from IQFeed and the elegant algorithms inside Exodus, is you trust it and know when to act.  There is no better approach to engaging the market than a consistently objective one.

Most people want to be told what to do.  Unfortunately, they depend on others.  I depend on robots.  My robots.  It’s better that way.

If you are good to your robots, they will be good to you.  Keep them calibrated and oiled.  Offer them zero time off but also a comfortable place to call home and appreciation for their service.

Despite my headline boldly claiming ‘no reason for concern’ there is one.  The Russell 2000 began to turn lower at a curious level last week.  It is the weakest looking index.  Keep an eye on it this week to see if it can lead lower.

Otherwise, all is well in 2017.  A new leadership shall be ushered in soon, one that promises to make the USA stronger than ever, and investors seem emboldened by these prospects. Yes, the rally is long-in-tooth, but the music is still playing—so keep dancing—monkey.


Exodus members, the 113th Edition of Strategy Session is published.  Go check it out now.  Three days hence its relevance is less.  By Friday, practically useless.  Now is when to read it.  Go.



Comments »