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Stalemate

For about the second time this year it seems buyers and sellers have come to a draw, and without some intervention they’re likely to sort of stick around these levels for a bit.

Boy-o-buddy did we thrown one heck of a who-ha yesterday. Despite wind gusts upwards of 50mph we managed to draw well over a hundred folks to the urban farmstead. It was a real show of power, over both the hearts of minds of the people and nature.

That said, I very much look forward to setting the farm work aside for the next six months and to make to to make to for to make to recluse myself into books and lifting iron.

Updating my research.

And getting back to trading.

Raul Santos, November 6th 2022

And now the 409th strategy session.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/07/22 – 11/11/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.80, neutral. Watch for earnings out of Berkshire early Monday to set the tone for markets to start the week. Then third reaction to CPI data Thursday morning provides visibility on price action into end-of-week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Bit of a rally to begin the week before some heavy selling Tuesday. Then third reaction to the FOMC rate hike Wednesday resolved lower and that selling carried into Thursday. Friday markets sort of caught a bounce. Except for the Russell, which was bearish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Our best sectors came under pressure last week, perhaps in part due to big tech earnings the week prior. Nothing about last week’s rotations bodes well for equity bulls.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows were pretty balanced.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Ether decoupled from stocks a bit

Ethereum was bullish divergent last week and steadily marched higher, even shaking off the Fed rate hike volatility spike. This commodity finished nearly on its weekly high.

Interesting to see risk assets start to behave independent of one another. Perhaps we are beginning to stabilize.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Watch for earnings out of Berkshire early Monday to set the tone for markets to start the week. Then third reaction to CPI data Thursday morning provides visibility on price action into end-of-week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Stabilizing across the board

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

Transports are sort of wiggling around inside range.

See below:

Semiconductors may have formed a higher lower. We saw buyers defending their conviction zone on Friday.

Ether seems to be drawn to the seventeen hundred level.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after two consecutive weeks of extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullishness.

There were five Bunker Busters in recent history — nine weeks ago, eighteen weeks back, twenty-five weeks ago, thirty-eight reports back and forty reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece.” – Ralph Charell

Trade simple, do your own research

 

Comments »

How dare you

What the hell kind of tomato soup are those Just Stop Oil activists throwing onto all those arts? Like what is going on in Europe that makes their tomato soups bright orange? God and the dark lord am I grateful to live in America. But those no dang good Wall Street investors and analysts are a pox. A pox I tell you. On this great nation. How dare they punish Big Tech the way they did last week.

I dunno. Maybe they deserved it. Watching Musk fire all these overpaid punks at Twitter has really been a joy. There is an entitlement perhaps, in Big Tech, that warrants a repricing of these wonder stocks. But -70% in one year for Meta? Because they had the courage to use all their moneys to build something new…that’s just the purposely esoteric complications of the global banking complex wielding too much power. Don’t even get me started on what they did to that poor Liz Truss.

Amazon did not need to trade below 100. Not even for a minute.

Alphabet will be fine. They spend two dollars to make two hundred, and I’m certain they can predict the future they just don’t want anyone to know. And can you blame them? The freaking White House would probably send in a team of geriatric Feds to bust up the place and install a few thousand fax machines so they can have meetings about meetings and hinder any and all progress for a hundred years.

I’m at a crossroads here. It is easy to point the finger at forces beyond my power like the citadel but the truth is my hands have turned to ice. I knew this would happen.

If you recall, I made a metric fuckton of money in 2020 and 2021, riding massive moves in Tesla, Doge, and just working the dang NASDAQ futures market like a savant.

But it wasn’t my first time sipping from that sweet chalice of success, of extracting numbers from the computer at an unholy clip. I knew what came next in my psyche.

GREED.

Every Halloween I put a bowl of candy out with a cautionary sign reading, “If you are greedy, a monster will come for you.” I try to pass on this hard-earned wisdom and who knows? Maybe this monster does not plague everyone like it does me and maybe I shouldn’t put such an absurd sign on the porch for children to read.

Maybe there is a better way for me to sear that message onto my soul.

But anyhow I knew after all those wins it was time to step back my activity and reduce risk.

I did better than last time but hot dog I had no freaking idea META would be capable of going -70% in eleven months.

This market is an endless source of painful lessons and ego killers.

So here I am. Stunned.

I need to do what I should have done months ago and turn my dang market profiles back on. That’d be a start.

Alright, enough lamenting.

Thank you Elon for checking the privilege out there in San Fransisco. Shame on Wall Street for being so freaking averse to change. And let us do better at expecting anything from these markets.

Raul Santos, October 30th 2022

And now the 407th edition of Strategy Session.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 10/31/22 – 11/04/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.85, medium bull*. Markets continue to sort of chop higher early in the week. Then watch for third reaction to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon to provide direction into the second half of the week. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning could serve to accelerate or pivot the prevailing price action ahead of the weekend.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy-to-higher early in the week. Selling pressure Thursday. Strong rally Friday and into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Not ideal sector leadership. Utilities strong suggesting risk aversion. Financials strong suggesting higher interest rates are benefiting these institutions at the cost of progress.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed majorly to the buy side.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Big Tech dismantled

Big Tech did not shine like we expected. This key industry group was the subject of harsh criticism all week long, both sentiment wise and through price action on their shares. Only Apple managed to come out of earnings in tact, and even their earnings showed a slightly weaker-than-expected consumer as they missed their estimates for sales on the latest iPhone (14?).

What I am witnessing for the first time is just how much Wall Street investors are averse to change. Everything Meta has done in particular has put them on the receiving end of price action I can only chalk up as irrational.

They threw their hat in with the metaverse and their shares are off by about -70% year-to-date.

We do not know the true value of META. But if I had to guess, it is somewhere between where it trades today and where it traded this time last year.

Markets can stay irrational loner than you can stay solvent, is a warning passed down through trading lore. But the truth is, if there is no leverage in place, and we are industrious lads who earn money outside of this arena, then we can in fact ride out irrational moments in price action.

Is that what I intend to do? I’m not sure. I’ve spent about 18 hours inside Meta’s latest headset (Quest Pro) and I am really trying to justify owning it verse the Quest two. It is more comfortable. But functionality is not blowing me away.

Meanwhile there seems to be lots of competition in this so called metaverse.

It really sucks to ride a stock from peak to down -70%. Does that mean I should never change my mind and keep my capital in place? Only if I truly believe in the leadership and the product.

Boy am I trying. But for all of Mark’s qualities, he doesn’t have the panache of Elon.

It’s a tough call. For now I will do nothing.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to sort of chop higher early in the week. Then watch for third reaction to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon to provide direction into the second half of the week. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning could serve to accelerate or pivot the prevailing price action ahead of the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Strong bounce from Semiconductors, what’s next?

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

Transports appear to be in range and doing well to work through to top-side of it. Balance is bullish until proven otherwise.

See below:

Semiconductors are in this descending channel, but it would be remiss to not acknowledge how old this discovery down phase is. I am looking for a new balance to form down here.

Ether shot up out of balance and could be starting a new leg of discovery higher.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish for a second consecutive week after having five weeks of neutral readings. e[RCS] calls for a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

There were five Bunker Busters in recent history — eight weeks ago, seventeen weeks back, twenty-four weeks ago, thirty-seven reports back and thirty nine reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Many a false step was made by standing still.” – Fortune Cookie

Trade simple, focus

Comments »

Research pinned bullish into OPEX

Greeting lads,

Not much vigor in me today to write something odd and entertaining. Just sort of plugging away. Let’s see…what happened last week.

Well I paper handed the open Friday, missed out on a nice morning pamp. It happens. I am not immune, despite my best planning and efforts.

What else did I miss? Ah yes. The ENS domain airdrop. I have had the ens registration opened on a tab in metamask for months. Sort of back burnered it after I couldn’t decide on a name. Missed out on about $20k in quick money. Ce la vi.

Did some airdrop alpha hunting over the weekend because of this. I opened a second metamask wallet. Swapped some coins on paraswap. And opened a Ronin wallet but heck if I know how to port any internet money into it. (any help in this regard would be appreciated. Feel free do dm me on twitter @vinnumbrr).

What else…what else. Ah yes. I took a position in a governance token called $spell. The abracadabra network. Real greasy defi stuff. I shall explore this further but essentially you can post some collateral to their protocal and in return they loan out $MIM (magic internet money, lolz). This is another stable coin. Then you can like use this magic internet money to leverage any yield earning schemes you’re into.

All very nice ponzi-economics.

Okay for now. I am off to do some yoga’d training and then eat some punkin.

-Raul Santos, November 14th 2021

And now the 364th edition of strategy session, enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/15/21 – 11/19/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.55, medium bull*. Continued sideways drift along the highs.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Topped out early Monday then sort of just of calmly drifted lower until some buyers stepped in Friday and then we drifted higher.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Discretionary took a hit. Everything besides Materials sort of flat.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Eleven weeks back we had a major bullish skew that was never negated. Then three weeks back we had another major bullish skew. The ledger was fairly balanced last week. Semiconductors on the positive side. Bulls not loving seeing gold and silver perform well. They do not support the rally well.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Stocklabs zoom call

Here is a link to a live demonstration of Stocklabs: https://youtu.be/4sLqFk402AY

Always helpful to see someone else walk through the toolkit.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Continued sideways drift along the highs.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up across the board

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are attempting to convert old resistance into support. This is classic discovery up action.

See below:

Semiconductors are majorly stretched but in discovery up. NVIDIA earnings are due out Wednesday after the bell and may serve to continue this rally or call it to an end.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for a fourth consecutive week after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks. Bias model was neutral six reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish seven weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish teb weeks back after being neutral eleven reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty seven weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored sunglasses calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Exodus 6-mont Hybrid Overbought

The 6-month hybrid algo triggered overbought Monday, November 1st. That is a bullish signal that runs through to Monday, November 15th end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Expect the unexpected. And when whenever possible, be the unexpected.” – Jack Dorsey

Trade simple, stay sharp

 

 

Comments »

Back bullish again

Brief update as I must begin Mother’s Day preparations.

Research is updated. Models are bullish heading into the second week of May.

I could pen some hard blog entry, about betting heavily against the NASDAQ early Monday, whilst having a few 100k doge, then covering the NASDAQ shorts mid Thursday and riding into the weekend a king.

What good would that do? None.

Man this doge coin really brings out people’s true character. We could all just be out here, vibing, cheering each-other’s success but there exists a strong desire to tear down the homies.

Even the doge community is sort of viscous.

It all reminds me while I extract fiat from the global equity complex: so I can build all sorts of greenhouses and grow lots of food and just be left alone. Too many rude humans.

Kindness is so easy.

With all that said, I am going to log off for now.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the sweet mums out their. If your daddy isn’t treating you right give your boy RAUL a call and I’ll take care you.

Raul Santos, May 9th 2021

And now Strategy Session. Enjoy:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/10/21 – 05/14/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.48, medium bull*.  Sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Hard down move through Tuesday, then chop along the lows, rally Thursday and into the weekend. Dow had relative strength all week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy still independent. Tech and Discretionary soft.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed positive last week.

Volume delta -28% and median return about 150 basis points.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Cruise Control week ahead

The second week of May is setting up to be a stock picker’s market. Look for broad indices to consolidate/mark time while small green shoots keep momentum traders interested.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Same story different week: Semiconductors choppy, Transports rally

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports made another big leg up in the discovery phase underway.

See below:

Semiconductors held range low and appear to be in balance.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, April 20th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6 month algorithm. This bullish cycle ran through end-of-day May 4th. Here is the final performance of each major index:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias after being RCS bearish last week and extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses for three consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster ten weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a choice.” Jeff Bezos

Trade simple, be kind

Comments »

Curious Sunday observation

I’ll have my usual philosophical Sunday entry, along with the full Strategy Session up in a bit. But I wanted to drop a quick note about an interesting observation I just made. Since switching my research over from Exodus to cocklabs back in October, the bias scores generated by IndexModel have been moving nearly in lock-step with the hybrid/technical algo scores inside Stocklabs. Until these last three weeks. These last three weeks have seen the line diverge. Check it out, starting on April 4th Indexmodel has grown more-and-more bullish while algo score remain slightly bearish:

What does it mean? We don’t know.

It will be interesting to see how this abnormality in recent data resolves, and whether occurrences of this nature continue to happen, and if we can derive an objective means of action based off of it in the future.

Okay for now, back to work on the Strategy Session. Stay tuned.

Raul Santos, April 18th 2021 9:40am New York

Comments »

Not trading today // letting Jacked Dorsey do all the work

Lads I’ve been on the wrong side of the tape all week and very early yesterday I hit my weekly loss limit. I am in good spirits but rules are there for a reason. Namely so I don’t blow my account up.

Twitter is my second largest position. Yesterday’s spike did well to shore up some of the bleeding. But with Jack giveth, Elon taketh.

I will spend the day working on installing my dang kitchen. I reportedly have Cousin Raul on the way to help.

Twitter is a never sell for me. Soon I will be charging 1 doge to see my tweet, and at the rate I tweet this will make be a very rich doge.

Trade’em well lads. I’ll be back Sunday with preparations for the week.

Raul Santos, February 26th 2021

Comments »

Tired // still bullish // NVIDIA will tell a story

Started my research late. Then went for a winter walk. Then ate good soup. Came back and finished the Weekly Strategy Session.

Now I am tiredt. I shall light a fire and brood next to it until morning time.

Know this — the fate of the entire market lies in NVIDIA’s hands.

Raul Santos, February 21st, 2021

Here is strategy session I make for to enjoy and trade well maybe you love it.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 02/22/21 – 02/26/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.33, medium bull. Rally through end of Monday then choppy. Then look for third reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after the bell to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Markets closed Monday for President’s Day. Holiday shortened week kicked off with a gap up to new highs. Sellers pressed into and erased the gap then continued lower through Wednesday morning. Big chop for the rest of the week with sellers pressuring the tape into Friday’s close.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations a bit mixed but key sectors like Tech and Discretionary were lower.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows show a balanced ledger last week. Median return reflects this, just slightly negative on the week. Quality industry groups on the positive side the ledger. The median 30-day volume delta remains negative suggesting a subtle outflow of capital from the equity complex.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Holidays don’t count

When working through an overbought or oversold 10-day cycle it is important to remember market holidays do not count. This can throw off when we think a cycle is ending. The current overbought cycle triggered on the 12-month algo has been incorrectly noted these last two weeks to end last Friday, the 19th when actually it ends tomorrow, Monday the 22nd at end-of-day.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Rally through end of Monday then choppy. Then look for third reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after the bell to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Contextual sub-indices remain discovery up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Same as last week — transports continued their discovery up phase.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors continue to discover higher prices. NVIDIA earning out Wednesday after the bell could serve to pivot this entire index.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a thirteenth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Friday, February 5th Exodus flagged hybrid (and technical) overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday, February 19th end-of-day. Here is the performance thus far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“The confidence of people is worth more than money.” – Carter G. Woodson

Trade simple, guard your emotional capital

Comments »

Mostly neutral

Greetings lads. I have been summoned to a plumbing dilemma over at Elder Raul’s mothership. I went there, shut down the water, then sent Elder Raul to home depot to pick up the part we need for the fix. That gave me enough time to finish the Sunday research.

Most every indicator is neutral except for the Stocklabs hybrid oversold signal. That runs through Thursday. We have earnings from Intel Thursday after the bell.

Monday we’re closed in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. day.

Basically I have little conviction heading into the holiday shortened week.

Last week I could just sit down and if I liked the way the chart looked instantly put three units on in the NASDAQ futures and start working the long while I wrote my report and be done by about 9:45am.

This week is not like last week. I have no clear conviction. That said. If we have open gaps in range, I’ll likely be here working them.

Be sure to tune into the morning reports.

Raul Santos, January 17th 2021

And now the 321st edition of strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/18/21 – 01/22/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

**U.S. Markets will be closed Monday, January 18th in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Junior day.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Small gap down into the week that buyers were unable to reclaim on the NASDAQ and S&P. Active sellers Thursday afternoon and into Friday. The Dow and Russell were bullish divergent all week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech lagged for a second week, flanked by the key discretionary sector. Energy continues to trade independent of the market. Utilities up butt Staples down.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows balanced out last week after skewing bullish two weeks prior. Most industry groups on the list are lower quality. Not much insight to gain from money flows.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

What is Delta Airlines doing?

Delta earnings painted a bleak picture for the airline as folks continue to stay home. One of the interesting developments to their fundamentals is the massive increase to their cash holdings. This can be seen on the Financials page. They went from having $2.65b in cash this time last year to nearly $25b today. Likely government relief cash.  What are they going to do with all that cash?

Meanwhile the NASDAQ transportation index is hovering around all-time highs. All of this situation deserves a bit of our continued focus.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors, Transports both discovery up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are holding their highs after the Delta earnings and the current picture shows no indication that the uptrend is due to stop.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors have a clear discovery up in place also.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a eighth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Thursday, January 7th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Thursday, January 21st end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To the mind that is still, the whole universe surrenders.” – Lao Tzu

Trade simple, seek clarity over gains

Comments »

All signals neutral, time to chill

My cognitive reservoir is running dry. I used up my best thought yesterday and until I go move something heavy or contort for a few hours, I am afraid all I can muster up is dullard commentary about the militarization of police.

It baffles the mind that these grumpy old white dudes act so tough. And hunt. And muscle their pickup trucks around the roads. Yet they cower behind the proverbial shield of the law dogs like a bunch of bootlickers. All the noise about freedom and liberties while funding an organization designed to control and oppress.

But I have no charisma for it today. In any event, any attempt to apply reasonable logic to the psyche of the extreme right is a sure way to boondoggle the mind.

Models are neutral. Trading will be kept tight and minimal. Little 15 point jabs in the futes. Continue to press all the long term bets on Big Tech.

Raul Santos, November 15th 2020

And now the Strategy Session, enjoy.


Exodus Strategy Session: 11/16/20 – 11/20/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.40, medium bull. No real direction until Tuesday. Watch for Walmart earnings (Tuesday, before-market-open) to put some direction into the tape for the rest of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big, news driven (vaccine hope) gap up Monday. Steadily faded and erased by early Tuesday. Then a steady choppy rally for the rest of the week. Lagging NASDAQ.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations into low quality sectors like Financials and Staples. Tech lagging.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows were relatively muted, but skewing towards the positive side of the ledger.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

No signals, minimal trading

With neither IndexModel nor Stocklabs generating a directional bias, trades will be kept to a minimal. No pressing. Small scalps, where favorable, only.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

No real direction until Tuesday. Watch for Walmart earnings (Tuesday, before-market-open) to put some direction into the tape for the rest of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors form mini balance, Transports top out at range high

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports met resistance at the top of the multi year range. Balance remains.

See below:

Semiconductors could be forming a mini-balance up here, inside a maturing discovery up on the higher time frame.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral. No bias.

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When a thoughtless or unkind word is spoken, best tune out.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Trade simple, keep the blinders up

 

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Nature loses again, don’t be against humans

Last week I wrote a doomsday piece, citing all the ways nature is playing a flexible defense against man. It was an entertainment of sorts, to fit with IndexModel signalling bunker buster into the holiday shortened week. Truthfully, I do not like selling stocks or hedging with a degenerate triple leverage inverse ETF or whatever. I don’t mind short selling index futures for a few minutes or hours, but multi-day bets against the stock market are not my thing.

It doesn’t suit me.

I like people. I am so freaking bullish on the economy it annoys my friends and associates. All the time people are heaping bad news upon my person, pointing to this-or-that current event as justification for their surly disposition. Negativity. Sofa king contagious.

2020 has been my year. I have been preparing for this big round calendar year for many years now….calling for a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen. It is happening. Semiconductors and automation and firms like Amazon are driving the change.

So what if climate change has us on a high speed train towards earthly extinction? Elon is building us a rocket ship off this lovely blue rock. You feel me? There are too many good people, people like Jack Dorsey, working on projects that will liberate and save man from its own nature. You cannot bet against humans, man.

But the system is the system is the system and by golly, if IndexModel calls for the short I take the heckin’ short. Then I come here, to public forum, and write a doomsday piece.

It’s that simple.

I hope, though I often doubt it when I see what type of “finance” personalities win the internet popularity contests, that even when my trades lose money, that I help you guys sharpen your own trading skills. That’s all I want. By sharing my research publicly, the goal is to keep accountability to my research and help cultivate a community or tribe or whatever of people having a healthy conversation about extracting fiat dollars out of the global equity complex.

I am not here to sell anyone diddly dick—not a chat room, or an alert service or any of that tips for trades bull shit. Fuck all of those busker acts. Information ought to be freely available.

YouTube has saved my ass so many times because someone, somewhere put up a video on how to fix this-or-that. The information was just out there, for free. All I had to do was properly query the Google.

That’s what it is all about. Building cool stuff like the Google to make brief mortal existences a little more chill.

All that said, and with Telsa trading at a cool 1,200 heading into the first full week of July, I am again bullish. So is IndexModel. Trade accordingly and cheers to your week.

Raul Santos, July 5th 2020

Exodus members, there is a note on this week’s strategy session regarding Bunker Buster. This has been a valuable signal, albeit a bit tricky to execute. Be sure to read my latest thoughts on it.

 

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