Category Archives: Curious Thoughts
I like situations like JRCC. The setup appeared on no news, but I could see buy flow coming in. Then you get a major development, one favoring your position and you get instant gratification.
But should you sell? I always do, but not the whole thing. The event completely throws the stock price out of balance. Their slate was wiped clean of a looming going concern. I don’t even know if they had a going concern statement in their financial statements, but they were teetering on the brink, no doubt. So now what’s the company worth? I couldn’t tell you, nor could I care less. I know fundamental guys, debt gurus, hedgers, and directional gamblers all have to come to market a duke it out to determine value. And that means we’re going to see vertical development, both ways.
Once I’ve cushioned the position with nice booked gains, I can sit back and see who prevails in the fight. I can cheer for my side, but I swear no allegiance. I’ll just as soon cut if the sellers prove a more formidable force. For now things are looking good.
We’re seeing reversal action in some of the pockets of strength, including solar. But it’s not lights out yet. We’re still above the major bias line highlighted this morning.
I’m still considering the $ES_F range from 1654.75 – 1657.25 as the bias zone. We can turn out a few lights if price is accepted below here. Until then, swing away.
I have positioned myself in these markets exactly how I didn’t want to—long this HDGE cheese and bologna sandwich with a side of stocks and cash. What a shame it is.
This is how the week has played out for the Raul:
I’m trading this ES_F in the mornings. I enjoy the process and planning. My win rate is 70 percent meaning I’m right WAY more than wrong. This is a critical component to consistent profitability. However, I’ve deviated from my plan a few times this week and it has resulted in me losing money. I’ve lost over 600 dollars, a gift to the market gods. I kid you not, EVERY time I deviate from my plan I lose money. Every time. Next week, my goal is simply to not deviate from the plan. If I stick to my plan 100 percent next week, I’m going downtown and getting a steak the size of a toilet seat. Until then, no red meat. I’ve been too aggressive.
I’m red on stocks too. Unreal right? Stock market went up five days straight! My CREE is up 6 percent. I’m still red. I had a losing trade in ANGI. Other notable weakness in my book includes FB and SAM. BBRY is new and still looks decent, same with new long YELP bought this afternoon.
I have this damn HDGE. It hasn’t bothered me all week, until today. I bought this position as insurance for my book. Much like real life, the insurance just costs me money and I receive zero benefit beyond homo peace of mind. I’ve accepted that. I even expected that. But my patience wears thin. My cost basis is $18.30 and it’s unlikely we see that level any time soon. HOWEVER, it’s so very oversold here. “Markets—rational—irrational—solvency” bla bla bla. I know…I’m not adding to this name, I’m simply managing my way out of it. I’ll close on the next bounce.
As bad as this all sounds, my book is hardly down. As a matter of fact, I’m 12 percent YTD. Last year about this time I had already given back all my double digit gains on the year. Perhaps memories of that savage dick punch are what have me positioned oh so homo.
All-in-all I still consider this week a success. Sometimes you just have to pay the troll toll to get out of a market hole. I’ll be burning thickets of sage to cleanse my home of demons and digging into The PPT for clarity. Best part: we get to come back Monday and do it all again.
Let’s not get all mushy about the details of my totally awesome blog, flowpirate.com, or the back door dealings of the blog game. Don’t get all gay and start reading me with frantic excitement like you do the champions who roam these halls. Do listen very quietly to me for only one moment:
I made it
And I’m going to keep making it. And losing it. Because it, my friend, is what it’s all about.
Also, this place, iBankCoin, this place right here…it IS the internet. Never forget that.
One final word: if you start a blog of your own, for the love of god, get excited about designer purses.
More later, I have top calling to do on twitter. @twosmuth is my pen name over there.
I get a certain type of perturbed when I miss a good opportunity. It’s 2013, shit’s cray. I’m calling a generational transformation right here, right now. There are things we don’t even know we want yet, that will be indispensable in three years’ time. In such a phase, if you don’t keep tight and on point, ideas simply drift by, like fat salmon drifting up stream. With such a flow of fish it’s only natural that a few slip by. Just know someone else is eating those delicious missed fish, living in the lap of luxury.
Things are going well, don’t get me wrong, but I missed two jumbos this month. I’d say it’s a good problem to have, too many ideas flowing. Being the opposite, following a template lifestyle of sorts, is certainly a drag. So I’m venting two big trades I missed.
BBY all month and TPX this week
BBY was a certain type of fail, where I just continued to fail. It was my Super Bowl pick. I do things, like my Super Bowl pick, or March Madness pick, mostly by looking at the charts. However, when I can incorporate an external, although often subject to extreme subjectivity, it makes the trade all the better. I overheard (read) that BBY had a funny commercial game day. I like funny; it’s the safe play for big time commercials. I bought January 31st, a decent entry, of the higher octane variety. I stopped out, and looking back that made sense. However, I let it linger on my watch list, and it gave two more entries, and I missed them. It’s been ripping.
TPX I have gotten so much of. I’ve been on that trade all.year.long. That is until missing today’s pump. I sold it a few days back citing a very flimsy formation of a notorious double hammer position. Truth is, I didn’t have much reason to sell, I found one, as Chess likes to say.
That’s all, just getting that off my chest. Onward and upward.
While Le Doctour has taken the market’s indecision as a cue to back off from his positioning, I have been aggressively churning my portfolio like a tap dancer in a minefield. Stocks are blowing up, and blowing down. Stock pickers are totally en vogue as money sloshes around in the market.
Today I sold my remaining shares of LEDS around 1.35 and a brief look back suggests I sold too early. That’s the problem with knowing a company is complete shit, you’re trigger happy on the gains. However, a 25 percent gain in two days is sufficient to keep bread on my table.
I bought ANGI back and it started ripping so I bought more. It’s a full position now, threatening to make all-time highs alongside our historic market.
I closed out RGLD in a passive manner. I placed a protective stop on the name ensuring I would earn 5 percent. It triggered and I went on my merry way. Plus the gold chart looks peak’ish.
Into the bell, @ragincajun dropped some breadcrumbs in the back ally, via the hybrid movers, and I curb-stomped two other bums to get my hands on the best pick, AIG. I’m long AIG now.
Finally it took every bit of discipline I have to not sell ZNGA. It’s been flirting with my stop all day. It’s been trading like a loser all week, but it hasn’t crossed my risk parameter yet. It’s simple ruffling my feathers in a most egregious manner. Let’s hope she doesn’t gap down on me. Come’own everyone, do some hoping for Raul.
Price clawed its way back to value before closing out the cash session. There’s certainly indecision present. Here’s more shorthand on what happened:
Major new highs overnight
Large opening swing
Sellers assert tape dominance
Price craters through the entire Friday range
Intraday shorts start working
Shorts get faded
Price pushes back up to value
Value settles lower than Friday
Big outside bar is formed
There was no clear winner, but I don’t like this Yen strength. If it continues, we’re operating in a different environment than we’ve seen thus far this year. Lots of charts are extended, like today’s winner AWAY.
Don’t chase risk. Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible. Tighten up that risk. Get it tight, get it right.
After hearing the news that Cyprus depositors of the six figure variety are each getting a leg chopped off and tossed into the pig trough, and puking a little bit, my immediate thought was ‘people will run to their gold and guns on this news.’
Rather than blast the interweb waves with subjectivity on this peaceful Sunday morning, I thought instead we could revisit my piece on February performance in the metal and miner space, look at how they’ve performed since then (during March) and later this evening I’ll chomp some charts.
Exhibit the first, via my February blog, courtesy of stockcharts.com:
Exhibit two, performance since:
The March-to-date performance would suggest money flows are finding their way into the miners at a rate greater than would be counteracted by sell flow.
Are leprechauns invading the market, chasing rainbows in a completely non homo fashion?
Has Jakegint received a massive bonus from his feverous work last year, and cemented the market with a heavy bid?
Will you need three guns or more to protect your metal stash and family from the zombie banker apocalypse?
Tune in this evening.
When you’re bouncing around at the frothy peaks of a thrust higher, you want to be on the lookout for the trashiest of the stocks which are setting up nicely on the charts.
This type of trading is downright degeneracy, let me forewarn. If you choose to partake in this lottery, be sure you define your risk, and don’t be a little baby when you lose. Close that loser with confidence. Being a confident loser is cool, guy.
I’m scraping the gutter with this one, after flaming the name for being a downright loser. I took LEDS long. This is pure price gambling, the company itself is a fantastic loser. But check out this daily chart, belissima:
We’re heading into some stormy weather people. As I pen this piece the SPY is making new lows after a nasty thrust lower this AM. I used the pullback after the thrust to get large in SDS, a hedge of sorts.
As we pressed lower I stopped out of many names, including ANR, INVN, and morning initiated longs HOV and HUN. I sold them all.
My current longs are (by size):
CMG, TPX, F, ZNGA, CREE, RGLD, AWK, and Z
All together the above represent 42% of my holdings. Most are faring decently into this storm, but I swear no allegiance to any of the names and will cut any that get too loose.
You have to get big in a slowpoke like SDS for it to have any effectiveness. Right now it stands at an 18 percent position. That leaves me 30 percent in cash waiting for the next high probability trade.
Try to stay dry out there folks!