Monday, May 30, 2016
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Curious Thoughts

Closing Out The Month of May Clueless


The 79th edition of Exodus Strategy Session has been completed, and after reviewing all the data, there is not much to go on.  Models are coming back neutral.  The only standout context heading into next week is what we saw in market rotations last week–investors abandoned safe haven sectors in exchange for allocations slightly higher up the risk profile, check it out:


There are a few other nuances that may tip the market’s hand next week.  They’re covered in the Strategy Session.  I elaborate on it a bit more, but basically we can also watch the NASDAQ transportation index, which has been a decent tell in the past.

You can also attend this week’s Boot Camp because we’re all going to put our minds together and hash out exactly what’s going on inside the market during the week-long seminar.  Here’s the link if you haven’t signed up yet:

If you decide to roll solo, taking the markets on via your own device, I understand.  Be sure to check in with my morning reports.  We’ll take it one day at a time.

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Mother’s Day Analysis Reveals A Chill Market With One Twist That Could Send Investors Running


News items, earnings, economic numbers, prevailing sentiment.  There is so much information available to the investor.  Every day you can choose to be inundated with as much [or as little] as you like.  I read every word written on iBankCoin daily, for example, while also enjoying CNBC during lunch.  I have the hots for Kayla Tausche mainly, but I also like a dose of the station’s content.  However, I live by the following motto:

“Objective judgement, now at this very moment

Unselfish actions, now at this very moment

Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, for all external events

That is all you need.” – Marcus Aurelius

Thus I prepare a detailed analysis every Sunday because data is cold, dead, and logical.  It allows me to wipe my lenses clean and take a look at what’s going on inside the market.  I do this every week and share my findings with the members of Exodus.  My 77th edition of the Strategy Session has been published.  Non-members can access today’s report free, because we have trials going on until midnight New York.  Here’s a link. Don’t miss out on this:

Ah yes, the twist, I almost forgot.  We have a Friday the 13th this week, so stay sharp 0_o

Happy Mother’s Day everyone!  Be good to the Moms in your life.  Prepare them foods, embellish the home with floral arrangements, and celebrate their being moms and stuff.

UPDATE: a cantankerous lad on Stocktwits provided Friday the 13th stats on the SPX.  I haven’t verified his findings, but allegedly (and I have no idea the sample size) Friday the 13th is green 60.5% of the time with a median return of +0.24%.  So any superstition associate with the day/date is ‘pretty stupid’.

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May Is Coming For You


All of our worst fears will materialize in May.  Lawns, inundated with dandi-lions and grubs.  Biker gangs, lawn-jobbing the soft turf.  Grass clippings, filling sinus cavities, swelling faces into amorphous balloons.

Spring brought the out the heathen speculator, and nature intends to make a correction to the economic tilt benefiting stock pickers.  It would behoove you to load up on gold bricks, allergy pills, and dry foods.  Then, from the safety of your air-tight shelter, attend the Investor Boot Camp in May.  Unlike other investor conferences, no human or elemental contact is necessary.  You can elevate your game from the safety of your shelter, away from the deadly germs, viruses, and allergies.

See Also: Deadly Zika Virus Claims Life in Puerto Rico

You have, all of you have, perhaps 3-4 days to flee the stocked market and board the ark.  Then, my best guess, is all hell breaks loose.

Welcome to May.

Distinguished members of Exodus, the latest Exodus Strategy Session, my 76th iteration, has been published.  Be sure to check it out.  Questions will be answered in the order they are received. Cheers!

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FOMC Rate Decision Coming Up: Nobody Expects a Hike


Yellen and her league of bankers have done a good job of talking down any likelihood of a rate hike this week.  30-day Fed Fund futures [say that 5 times fast] are pricing a 97.7% probability rates stay unchanged this Wednesday:


Nevertheless, market direction will be revealed after the 2pm announcement, like it always is, when the algos send an EKG pulse through the marketplace.  It’s like sonar.  It blasts out, reads the sea bed [resting orders] then determines direction for the next 2-4 days.  The more times you trade through it, the better you get at joining the winning team.

While we’re all at the mercy of our algorithmic overlords, there are still some subtle clues to glean from the financial complex before it all goes down.  I have highlighted those little nuances in this week’s Exodus Strategy session, which I just published.  It comes complimentary with our software, so members be sure to check it out!

Should a hike somehow be revealed, everyone will be crushed.  Their faith in the continuous dialogue coming from The Fed will be shattered.  Chaos will ensue–riots in the city center, bank runs, cats and dogs living in harmony!

But it probably won’t happen so enjoy a nice clamato on this springtime Sunday and chill baby, chill.

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Could Chyna’s Death Be a Bearish Omen?


Wrestling legend Chyna passes away, then the Shanghai index drops over 2% the next day.  Coincidence?

There are no signs Chyna intended to die, based on what police found inside her apartment — and she’d been deceased for at least a day … TMZ Sports has learned.

Law enforcement sources tell us there was no suicide note left in her Redondo Beach, CA home. We’re also told it appears the WWE legend had passed away a “day or two” prior to Wednesday evening … when a friend found her body. The last known contact she had with anyone happened on Sunday evening.

As we first reported … there were no illegal drugs, but officers did find legal prescription bottles. Our sources described the number of bottles as 3 or 4 … “nothing out of the ordinary.” Also, the bottles were not emptied.

We’re told several neighbors told investigators they suspected “overdose” as the cause of death since she’d seemed “under the influence” lately.

Source: TMZ Staff, TMZ

The Far East shivers when the Ninth Wonder of The World falls.  Stay sharp.


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Next Week Is All About Technology


Forget about the cavemen in Saudi Arabia and Iran, living 200 years in the past, fighting over a low-value commodity with zero craft value.  These troglodytes will continue to fart on each other for pleasure and throw their people off skyscrapers for eternity.  Meanwhile, here in the United States, the best country on the strongest continent, we’re going to be hearing earnings from our supreme inventors: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix?! and more.

And while I have no clue what sort of reaction we’ll see after these names report, I know it will have a significant impact on where we price the NASDAQ.  So I expect the index will lead our direction this week.  Keep an eye on it.

Exodus members, the 74th Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Inside it I point to another layer of context that will be helpful to navigating the market next week, a potential industrial bellwether which could tip off the market’s hand before we see all these tech earnings unfold.  Check it out!

As for the rest of yous, know this–USA taxes are due tomorrow.  Do not be upset if you pay taxes.  That means you’ve worked hard at your craft and it has earned you money. Taxes are not paying for something you don’t need or use.  You literally live in the best governmental structure mankind have ever created.  If you’re simply a W-2 Turbo taxer and due for a major refund [which you likely already claimed] shame on you–you’ve provided the government a zero interest loan all year.  That money could have been in your savings account earnings 0.0025% man, wise up!

Bear in mind everyone, that tax day is often a pivot point in the market, so stay sharp.

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Stock Market Stuck on Win


The warm winds of seasonality, the gentle cues of the index model, and the downside tenacity of January and February have all contributed to an uninterrupted 2-month rally.

I took a shot betting against it, which was proven wrong and a losing proposition.  Now model scores are back into grace land, readings so extremely high they usually portend sideways or slight upside action.  It looks like the market is setting up for another week of volatility compression.

Last week I slowly made my way down to the southern tip of Florida, a place inhabited by rare birds and barracuda, while rarely checking in on the stocked exchanges.  Why do you work extremely hard?  I do it for freedom from corporate oppression and to satisfy my hankering for exploration.   But soon I will be back to my turrets.  I suspect the market will be teaming with opportunity to flip NASDAQ futures when I return, and it it my intention to gather said NASDAQS into my purse.

However this week is shaping up to be relaxing, docile, dare I say benign?    Furthermore stock pickers know the rug pull is inevitable, but if they have participated thus far, this ought to be of little concern to them.  Well done, especially to the Trade Lounge crew lead by Ragin Cajun and Option Addict.

Exodus members, the Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Be sure to check it out.

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The Resilience Is Admirable


For two weeks I was bearish and wrong.  This week I came in neutral, but Switchboard [coded context] keeps nudging its bias long, then back to neutral, flip-flopping, if you will.

The conditions are not conducive for trading inside-out.  Trying to initiate directional trades is likely to chop you out.  Instead you have to work from the outside-in, fading moves back to value.

Trading conditions like this mean markets are in balance.  They are resilient against attempts higher and lower, and are structurally sound.

Aside from fading extremes, this type of action also lends itself to stock picking–a pastime I haven’t actively pursued yet this year.

All the data points to neutrality with a very slight bullish bias.  The huge value areas in play are hard to bust loose from.  Stock picking might be the move, but I am not participating.  The markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode until we hear from the European Central Bank tomorrow, resistant to any directional attempts.

SEE ALSO: All Eyes on Mario Draghi

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Super Neutral

Reeves & Swayze In 'Point Break'

Frozen vanilla chai latte to my head, I have a short bias heading into the week, but my models are all coming in neutral.

It is worth noting I had a short bias for the last two weeks.  That didn’t work out too hot.  Being cold to this market kept me sidelined while epic squeezes took place in the energy industries.

I missed some action, fine.  The good thing about trades is another one is always coming, just like buses in the city [not Detroit].

I closed my Walmart investment out late last week.  It was sporting a failed auction and I don’t play around with failed auctions anymore.  Plus Macke has been throwing mad shade on their share buyback program.

Anyhow these days, if a swing trade makes money it makes cents [sic] to book it.  I collected a dividend along the way [old man swag].

Enough about me.  Stocks exacted a serious amount of pain on short sellers and sideliners last week.  FOMO is elevated but not radically strong.  Sentiment is tepid, the wall-o-worry is alive and well, but I don’t like it.

I would rather be tactical, speed boating into position trades and jab, jab, hooking my way through the futures market.  In short, I’m cashed up and neutral.

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America Is Great Again


March fund flows have propelled this market like a banshee out through the gates of hell.  All is well in stock land as Super Tuesday ramps up.

Calls [on my behalf] for lower market prices have been wrong.  America instead gained 120 NASDAQS.  Breadth has finally inched up into the stratosphere and by all signals this move is likely to spill into tomorrow.

The only hope left for bears is nob-systemic risk.  Citron can still kill a stock fairly effortlessly, even in a strong tape, as they’re demonstrating in Tesla today.

Tesla has all sorts of problems, including a labor feud with the morons of Arizona over out-of-state employees.  I digress.

March has decidedly turned positive for equities.  All the grave concerns of the last two months are behind us.  Much like the flu, the markets have come around and can now return to running naked in the wind.

Look for the rally to extend upon itself tomorrow, even if Trump beats Cruz in Texas.


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