Greetings from inside the machine.  I am happy to report all weekly maintenance has been completed and the learning machines inside Exodus are running smoothly.

You may not know this, but my work to produce Exodus Strategy Session also includes a series of internal audits to ensure all index and sector data is clean and accurate.  It’s the human touch that keeps robots running well.  As you transition into a robot overlord position, you will learn all about keeping their cold mechanical hearts pumping.

Model readings are neutral heading into the first full week under Premier President-elect Trump.  Last week was an emotional mess.  People who cannot comport themselves and behave with the steely logic of an opportunist and speculator are fucking up, and producing wholesale opportunities along the way.

One of the most interesting observations from this week’s Strategy Session is Industry Performance.  It tells a story this week of industrious people preparing to build great companies for our nation, while the hoarder of shiny metals was pigeonholed into their doomsday shelter:

Meanwhile, there are so many moving parts and potential disruptions from our election, MASSIVE opportunities to disrupt archaic industries and make lots of money, and people are distracted.  They are taking their eye off the ball.  Don’t be like them, shut down the social media feeds and get to work.  TODAY, while the Christians are resting and the bumpkins are droning away with their American football.

Exodus members, the 105th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live.  There is a really good quote from George Soros, one of the most successful financial speculators of all-time.  Also, new members, if you want a live-demo with yours truly, shoot an email to [email protected].  Send me TWO TIMES where you could spend 30 minutes on the phone and I do my best to confirm.

 

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Next week sets up November, which sets up Thanksgiving, Black Friday, the “Santa Claus” rally, Christmas and year-end.

And while the outcome of the election is likely to impact the market, the auction theory model, a working model built inside Exodus using cold logic and dead numbers, is providing trading insight for next week.

Writers note – I always take my signals, even through major world events.  The huge gap down post BREXIT, for example, turned out to be the best performing Exodus buy trade so far in 2016.

Since we have Free Exodus Trials going on this weekend, here is this week’s Executive Summary, a STOCK MARKET PREDICTION based on probabilities and past observation:

ELECTION PREDICTIONS:

Hillary wins.  Perhaps my microcosm skews my expectations but easily 8 out of 10 people I know will vote HRC.  Also, even WikiLeaks founder Assange admits “they” won’t let Trump win.

Following the election she will be indicted and removed from office.  The jig is up for the Clintons.  Kaine will be president.

POST ELECTION PREDICTIONS:

There will be no revolution from the rad-right.  Winter will suffocate their fires.  They will return to their manufactured homes and opiate addictions.

Big Pharma will continue to thrive and surpass Big Oil to become the largest lobbying group in Washington DC.

Venture capitalists will continue to front run public investor interests, greedily hoarding the best investment opportunities in the world (like Uber, DJI, or Snapchat) until they are ready to cash out onto the fucked-five-ways-to-Sunday general population (see GPRO or TWTR).

Medical costs will continue to rise, but so will subsidies so fret not unless you believe imagined realities like national debt matter (see central banks).

ISIS will continue to grow with support from the shepherd princes of Qatar.

In short, life will go on.  Modus operandi.

I hope you enjoyed the show.  I realize most of my readers did and also that my real life friends and family unanimously stuck their heads in the sand.

SIDE NOTE ON ALL THE WIKILEAKS:

The food emails from Podesta and team being code for child trafficking nonsense?  Stop, you all look like demented crazy folk.

The “Spirit Cooking” paranoia of devil worshiping?  Come to Detroit sometime and I’ll show you some bizarre events—it’s hedonistic entertainment.

Podesta’s brother does sound like a sick fuck, with his dick out Jesus painting and room full of nubile portraits.  His preferred wall decor isn’t just a conversation piece for cultured socialites; he’s a creep.   Whether John is also a pervert is hard to say, but I’d imagine there is some defect in their lineage.

The only revelation that came from WikiLeaks is the $1,000,000 gift to the Clintons in 2011 when Hillary was in the State Department.  Liberals will condemn Trump for having “white supremacist” people retweeting him, but have zero qualms with an oppressive country that publicly lashes/stones gays, a country that mutilates female organs to eliminate pleasure regions, supporting Hillary Clinton.

Who has the bigger obligation to bad people?  The one with the retweets, or the one with a million dollars?

Use your brain.

HISTORICAL MODEL SCORES:

RECAP OF EVERY BUNKER BUSTER ON RECORD:

9/11/16

All major indices came into last week gap down and rallied higher all Monday.  This marked the weekly low.  Then, for the rest of the week the NASDAQ worked higher while the other indices went sideways.

6/19/16

We came into last week gap up, well above the weekly ATR band on every major U.S. equity index after polls and other data came out suggesting the United Kingdom was likely to vote against leaving the European Union.  An early Monday rally was faded and we ultimately closed on the session low—but the gap into the week remained.  This low held through Thursday the markets rallied hard into Thursday afternoon.

Friday, overnight, we learned the UK voted themselves out of the EU, and the market fell nearly 250 NASDAQ points off the high.  The open on Friday featured a strong reflex rally right up to the gap we left behind two Friday’s back.  From there the market rolled over, traversed the entire reflex rally, and closed out on session low.

5/15/16

Major indices basically tested higher early in the week, tested lower later in the week, and balanced out by Friday.  Most indices worked slightly higher through the balance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagging behind.

1/10/16

Last week started with a gap up that was faded. The selling pressure Monday was mild and the market ultimately discovered a strong responsive bid by the end of the day. Tuesday opened gap up, tagged the upper ATR band, then slowly rotated lower to close the gap down. Again, a strong responsive bid was discovered and the day closed strong.

Wednesday, after opening with a small gap up, price reversed lower and had a slow grind lower through the morning and lunch hour. The selling accelerated into the afternoon and we ultimately printed a trend day down.

Thursday the selling continued through the early morning before again discovering a strong responsive bid. We spent the rest of Thursday trending higher before sellers stepped in at the end of the session.

Friday saw a pro gap down to a new weekly low. The action on the session was balanced and ultimately formed a decent-looking excess low before reversing and closing above session mid.

12/20/15

Equity indices started the week gap up and after an early fade lower price spent the rest of the holiday shortened week trading higher. Equity products closed for trade at 1:15pm on Thursday, Christmas eve and remained closed Friday in observation of Christmas day.

12/13/15

Markets started the week gap down and sold fast. By the afternoon responsive buyers stepped in. Tuesday the market opened pro gap up and traded in balance. The balance continued up to the FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon, after which we rallied.

Thursday we gave back all of the rally from the FOMC event and Friday sold hard, taking price back to about where the week started.

11/15/15

Equity indices started the week with a small gap down and trended higher all day Monday. After a balanced session Tuesday, price spent the rest of the week trending higher.

Friday price appeared pinned into a tight range but overall carried a slight upward drift.

8/22/15

Arguably the most eventful week of the year, stock markets started the week with a major gap down. The NYSE invoked rule 48 before opening bell [it was also invoked Tuesday and Wednesday] in an attempt the quell volatility.

Price drove lower off the open as several stocks and ETFs became dramatically mis-priced. Price sharply snapped higher and by Monday afternoon the Nasdaq was about 275 points off the low. By the close Monday most of those gains were given back. Tuesday opened gap up, buyers made an early push, but ultimately price rolled over, closed the overnight gap, and closed near session low.

Wednesday price opened gap up, sellers pushed into the overnight inventory but struggled to fill the gap before buyers came in and closed price near session high. Thursday price opened gap up and churned with a slight upward drift and Friday price drifted sideways, marking time.

There were four neutral days in a row this week on the Nasdaq. Quite the rare event.

8/9/15

Price came into the week with a big gap up. Buyers kept the pressure on most of Monday before finding responsive sellers late in the session. Tuesday price opened gap down and after some aggressive posturing from buyers and sellers we liquidated lower. The selling continued overnight and Wednesday we opened to a 3^rd big gap, lower, and sellers pressed for most of the morning.

Before lunchtime Wednesday buyers responded and began buying. The indices threw down a classic smoke screen with the Nasdaq going range extension down while the rest diverged. After bouncing off the lows, strong reversal and trend higher pressed for the rest of the day. Thursday and Friday were quiet, summer grind-type sessions.

06/14/15

Stocks came into the week with a big gap down and spent the first half hour liquidating lower. Price managed to exceed the prior week’s low before responsive buyers stepped in. At that point the auction reversed and price began working higher. Price continued higher into Wednesday morning before sellers worked in ahead of the Wednesday afternoon FOMC rate decision.

The third price reaction was a buy after the decision which led into a trend day up Thursday. Friday price faded lower but we ultimately closed higher on the week.

3/8/2015

Equities started the week with a small gap up and drifted higher for much of the session before finding responsive sellers (responsive relative to Monday’s open, initiative relative to the prior week’s breakdown) who knocked stocks off the highs. Then Tuesday price opened to a large gap down and trended lower for most of the session. The selling carried into Wednesday and Thursday price went gap up and traded higher. Friday bulls tried to build from their bounce but were overwhelmed by selling which took out Thursday’s swing low before finding a sharp responsive buy near the end of the day

2/1/2015

Stocks opened for trade Monday with a slight gap up and promptly sold off during the first 45 minutes of trade. Price exceeded the swing low from the prior week before finding a strong responsive buyer. The reversal continued into the afternoon and throughout most of the week. This action carried us to the high end of our intermediate term range.

Early Friday morning the markets continued higher after a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report and revisions to the prior month. The move stalled out by lunch time and we saw sellers enter and push the market lower slightly to end the week.

1/11/2015

Prices worked lower across the index markets for most of the week after coming into Monday with a small gap up. Volatility was already elevated but truly increased on Tuesday when an early rally was rejected sending the market careening lower. Many large banks reported earnings throughout the week and one after another traded lower [see: WFC, JPM, BAC, C, GS, PNC].

Then, early Thursday morning [premarket] the Swiss National Bank announced it would remove the cap it had in place to prevent the Swiss franc from rising too high against the Euro [Source: Bloomberg Businessweek, click here]. The Central banking move drove one of the biggest shakeups in foreign-exchange history. However, US stock indices showed signs of short term stability and held value.

12/14/2014

After closing the prior week (12/12) on a weak note, going out at the lows, equity markets were gap up Monday morning. The globex buyers were quickly tested Monday when markets sold off and continued lower through Tuesday. By Wednesday morning we started seeing signs of buyers as we went into the afternoon FOMC rate decision and Yellen press conference. The news received a positive reaction and enticed more buyers into the market. Thursday prices opened to a big up gap and we continued grinding higher for the remainder of the week. Also, the Russell 2000 began showing relative strength Wednesday.

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FINAL RECAP:

Look for a tradable low this week.  Look for Clinton to win.  Look for her to be indicted and removed from office.  Look for life to go on.

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Greetings from the furnace room of iBankCoin laboratories!

The morning was spent carefully updating the models and logging a few anomalies into the register to ensure our bias was properly tuned heading into the most Hallowedween to date.

Something happened on October 20th.  The analytical engines inside Exodus issued an out-sized Hybrid % change.  It tells of downward pressure in the marketplace, something otherwise unseen in the benign index world:

However, this month ends in a curious way, wrapping up sloppily on a Monday.  With American families busy celebrating the dead and ghosts and other ghoulish nonsense, the primary expectation is for an upward drift—a drift that may continue through Wednesday.

However, and this forecast is subject to change and is without the vigor of an official model signal, expect the market roll and explore lower.

I repeat, roll and explore lower.

The lab equipment has been polished, and a fresh batch of banished souls have been fed into the eternal fire.  iBankCoin is a lean, self-sustaining entity whose existence on the interwebs will continue well beyond the final gasps of the homo sapien species.

Bullish, then bearish.

Exodus members, the 103rd Edition of Strategy Session is live, check it out and be ready for the new month’s fund flows.

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Auction theory models have been updated.  Exodus members, be sure to read the latest Strategy Session.

The model offers a touch of guidance for the upcoming week.  Keep an eye on the Russell 2000.  The model is slightly bullish on the index. Expect the behavior of this small/midcap group to provide direction to the overall market.

REMINDER: Fed Beige book Wednesday afternoon.

ALSO: Lots of influential companies reporting earnings next week.  Check your calendars and holdings.

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The month of September was good.  It had 5 Thursdays and Fridays which is neat.  The expiration of the September futures contract brought in some much needed volatility and offered me a chance to add some NASDAQs to my purse after a long stretch of scraping by.

Now it comes to a perfect end, on a Friday.

I work off statistics.  And the only stat I have says we are exactly 67% likely to drift higher to start the week.  So my inclination is we drift higher.

Under the surface rotations are drifting away from risk.  The Utilities sector performed best last week as we made new highs across several of the major indices.

Cooler temps are settling into the north.  This shift may prompt the squirrls to start storing their nuts for safekeeping during the winter, resulting in a rotation away from equities.  However none of it seems threatening.  At least not yet.

Finally, the first Presidential debate is Monday evening.  There are bars across the city hosting live viewings.  It is going to be lit.  Whether the market reacts is uncertain, but the events of Monday evening are likely to tint the entire week.

Do not let it sway you.  Keep your vision objective by relying on the information provided by actual order flow.  Market behavior.

Exodus members, the 98th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is published. It details the market data I will be closely watching and a funny but timely quote from Bill Belichick.  Go check it out!

 

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Sometimes after all the calculations and research we have nothing to show for it.  In fact, this happens quite often in life and business.  Months spent building proposals, paying consultants for legal and architectural support, visits with public officials, and nothing comes of it.

Totally fine.  Part of the game.  If it were as simple as some grunt work then everyone would do it.

But it isn’t.  It takes relentless persistence.  Failing, learning, succeeding, learning.  Humility and patience, cheerful even when working with conniving and deceptive people you encounter every single day.

This week’s research has returned no bias.  The 97th Exodus Strategy Session will provide you no edge in trading or investing.  It highlights some interesting areas to watch, for guidance, but is otherwise just an exercise in routine.

Routine is my rock.  It can be yours too.

Stay focused.  The Fed will dictate market direction into the week’s end and perhaps the rest of the month.  And you can glean insight from it if you remain objective.

Exodus members, I encourage you to check out the latest Strategy Session.  It is live.

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The central banks normally condemn the downward spiral-type trading that occurred last Friday.   For some unknown reason, the markets were permitted to explore lower prices, and while doing so they revealed a severe lack of demand for equities.

In one trading session, sellers effectively moved the markets away from a two-month price range.  Now the broad indices are trading at levels unseen since early July.

The price and volume behavior ranked worse that anything the auction theory model inside Exodus has ever seen.  These extreme readings often tell a story of opportunity.

I just published the 96th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session, and inside it we discuss two potential trading scenarios for next week.  Members, go check it out!

As for the rest of you.  Buckle up.  The model is calling for speed.

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Institutions know most traders get discombobulated on the Friday before a quarterly option/future expiration and it tends to be a day wrought by heavy moves in price.

If the rally has been strong, a hard flush to blow out the directional call buyers.  Conversely a down tape often experiences a rapid squeeze higher.

This is OPEX trickery at its best, and heading into Q4 big players are making a definative move down and away from the value we spent most of August building.  Below you can see the value as printed on the NASDAQ:

The market tried twice to break the balance to the upside, to no avail.  Now we are exploring lower prices aggressively.

For the last month, several metrics inside the tape have rhymed with November 2015.  Panning out and observing the behavior, there are similarities and differences, but if we are embarking on another January 2016-type move, things could get ugly fast.  Here’s the analog to work with:

On my end, I blew out several longer-term stock holdings after the first failed auction and I’ve been sitting like an old man, yelling at all the momentum traders.  So I don’t have much else to do aside from waiting for my algos to nudge me back in.

In the futures, life is finally coming back, opportunity has reemerged on the tape (it always does, patience was wearing thin though).

This move is very much risk off and cautionary, with an active higher time frame who knows most investors/traders came into the day ill-prepared.  Caution.

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Happy Labor Day everyone!  I come bearing good news on this day of rest—the markets are super okay with these high prices.

Also, I just dialed the latest market data into my model and it is neutral.  No bias.

Thus, we have no reason to suspect volatility during the upcoming holiday shortened week.

There are two things to be aware of.  The first is Wednesday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book.  That might matter for like 5 NASDAQ points MAYBE.

The second is the potent compression on the NASDAQ Transportation index.  I will treat any substantial break from this range as a bellwether for how the month-long balance in the overall market will resolve:

That’s all folks.  Next week looks like a real snooze-fest unless some unknown event occurs.

Exodus members, go check out the 95th Edition of Strategy Session and may the Monday holiday bring refreshing vibes to your work.

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It would be ideal to have a model signal heading into the last month of Q3 because everyone starts being serious again in September.

You had, all of you had 31 August days to grind and hustle while your competition sauntered around beach towns and hastily sent their children off to university.  Now they will focus their efforts back on the accumulation of wealth.

Into this important week of stock marketing, the models are coming back neutral.  It offers slight guidance, in the form of a 66.7% probability on the S&P 500.

This probability was the foundation of this week’s Executive Summary inside the Exodus Strategy Session.  It shaped it.  The slightly-better-than-a-coin-toss stat is the only hard data I have to work with.

Be ready for more balance play this week; working the edges until they ultimately break; and knowing when it’s time to start discovering new prices again.  As always, we’ll take it one day at a time.

Exodus members, the 94th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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