Coming into the week bearish has inspired several of the townsfolk who cavort around iBankCoin and FIN-Twitter to throw cabbage and tomatoes at my person.  Which is fine.  I imagine they do not fully understand the purpose of forming a directional bias heading into the trading week.

What I set out to do every Sunday is choose which side of the NASDAQ futures market to day trade during the week.  None of these trades are held overnight.  One trade that has proven effective during weeks with a short bias is playing for a break of *initial balance* low.

*initial balance is the first hour of trade.

Here’s how it works.  The first hour of trade sets a range–a high and a low.  Once I suspect the initial balance high is in, I find ways to initiate a short position on the NASDAQ.  One of my favorite trades is when we cross the *daily mid*.

*daily mid is the halfway point between the high and the low.  Rocket science, I know.

The trade worked Monday and Wednesday.

Will it work Thursday and Friday?  The statistic suggests there is a high probability at least one of those days will take out initial balance low first.

Where the IndexModel has proven ineffective is in deciding when to close out long-term positions or initiate a multi-day hedge.  However, if we trade a bit higher, I may be inclined to enter a position short into the weekend.  I want to see how the /NQ futures behave at 5974.  If sellers step in, I shall likely join.

In terms of earnings, goodness.  The big players are crushing expectations.  Look at just this afternoon’s batch of winners:

PayPal Reports Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.46 vs $0.43 Est., Sales $3.136B vs $3.09B Est.
Facebook Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.32 vs $1.13 Est., Sales $9.321B vs $9.2B Est.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $2.56 vs $2.15 Est., Sales $7.141B vs $6.35B Est.
Las Vegas Sands Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.73 vs $0.59 Est., Sales $3.14B vs $3B Est.

So it is hard to be bearish beyond first few hours of the trading day.  Afternoons are for the boys.

The Exodus Strategy Session is for hardcore traders who work time-frames most of you should never even consider.  There is no dabbling with the futures markets.  If you can sit down without distraction and focus on order flow and the complications of your charts then yes, you can consider working these kind of trades.

In summary, the short bias generated is currently batting 2-for-3 and has two more at bats.

Trade accordingly.

Still on this page?  Great, than I will keep going.  We can talk about any of the concepts discussed above better at the first ever Detroit investors conference next Thursday, August 4th.  So RSVP.  It is free, and I am not putting you on a mailing list or selling you timeshares in the Bahamas.  There will be pizza.

 

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Greetings land mammals!

Floods comin’

And since the ice caps are melting at alarming rates due to the decisions being made by your new authoritarian media, making money in the stock market is more important than ever.  Said funds should be earmarked for procuring high ground in the United States and building a fully sufficient, off-the-grid compound that can outlast the natural forces that are conspiring against the coal and oil executives in Washington.

Okay let’s talk about the stock market.

There was lots of celebration at the end of last week on financial twitter. It was a bit unnerving.  Fortunately the weekend was upon us, the summer breeze was sweet, and there were more pressing matters—like finding a warm beach and some good friends and family.

After spending Sunday morning in church (the boiler room of iBankCoin laboratory) looking closely at super clean stock market data, raw data from our thousands of sensors deployed throughout the financial markets, the kind scientists at iBankCoin labs formed an objective hypothesis for the upcoming week:

Looks bullish, calm and bullish

Keep an eye on Thursday afternoon.  The Fed’s releasing their balance sheet.  It may be the only matter of business from the Fed that investors still care about.  The rest of their time is spent sunbathing in some coastal town, far from rural America, watching the disorganized middle class work themselves into a tizzy over the latest news bit.

Exodus members, brilliant minds who have assembled to dominate the financial markets, the 140th edition of Strategy Session is live.  A panel of 2 dogs and 1 cat who I pay with food agree with the findings of my report, which will this week only be called a white paper.  Go read why I am so bullish heading into July option expiration.

 

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The numbers are talking.  Phase one of the Exodus quantitative investing method has returned more than two times the S&P500:

Over the weekend phase two will be built live.  I will come to work Sunday, like a priest, and choose 12-15 stocks to hold for the next 12 months. I will do this live on YouTube, and if no technical issues arise, yours truly will broadcast his beautiful, boyish face in vivid 4k.

Do you understand how disturbingly simple my stock market investment approach is?  Entirely systematic.  Zero subjectivity.  $39.80 in fees per year (motif commission to buy up to 30 stocks).  Four adjustments per year that take about 30 minutes.

If you want, watch the video of my building phase one:

These portfolios are all held live by me and my people.  In three years time, this will be my greatest work ever.

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Greetings from the boiling hot surface of planet earth!

The kind scientists at iBankCoin labs have been toiling away inside the machine that is Exodus, checking and re-checking the learning computer’s readings, ensuring the readings are in fact accurate.  They are.  And all signs point to bearish action in the upcoming week.

If you recall, a short bias was issued heading into the first week in June.  This was a bad call.  However, and let it be known across the fin-dork interwebs, that we take our signals.  All of them.

Americans are barrelling towards solstice drunk on sun exposure, exhausted from one-too-many graduation ceremonies, and wholly unprepared for the furious impeachment measures being enacted by the deep state to unseat our authoritarian leader.

Enjoy your celebrations today, dads.  For next week we will do battle with the most evil force in nature: sellers.

Distinguished Exodus members, the 136th Edition of Strategy Session is live.  Go see all the other reasons why we are bearish heading into summer solstice.

 

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Greetings from the northern inferno!

Blistering heat has moved into the formerly sterile north.  And despite the extreme heat two robot slaves (one to shovel and one to stoke)   are keeping the Exodus furnaces at full power.

Ramming speed!

Where man’s flesh would degrade and exhaust the machines excel.  All systems are running smoothly and the instruments inside Exodus have been calibrated to insure accurate readings.  The theory is anyone can make the right decisions if they are presented with quality data.  The mental challenge is abandoning human emotions like fear, desire.  These things that make you human.

After parsing all the data created last week, including that powerful wave of selling that hit the NASDAQ Friday, the IndexModel has generated another bullish bias.  This is the second consecutive bullish bias, heading into the second full week of June.

Which is also option expiration week.  Quad-witching, in fact, since index futures will also expire.  Which means it could be a strange week.  Be ready for head fakes, both ways.

We have a signpost halfway through the week.  At 2pm on Wednesday there is a 99.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will  raise interest rates by 25 basis points.  How the market reacts to the hike is likely to give direction into the tail-end of the week.

However, combine OPEX with FOMC, add a dash of global warming—forcing massive herds of humans to seek living land—and there is the possibility of the fed reaction being a head fake also.

In short, this week may be challenging.  The higher time frame is likely to be active.  If you find yourself becoming emotional during the action, it is okay to step aside until the exchanges settles down.  But, if you can stay engaged and objective, there will likely be some bigger rotations to work with.

The robots are calling for higher prices.  Nothing crazy…just a sideways drift really.  Contextually, we are a bit more aware of future events than robots, which is why there is an added caveat from the good scientists at iBC labs that volatility may be elevated.

Sideways drift makes sense in this context.  A hard move lower to lure some shorts into the hole, or a fast move higher to entice some premium bidders at the peak.  Both parties upset.  June gloom, etc.

Overall, if the robots want higher, then we shall continue to work the long side of the market more aggressively than the short.

Distinguished Exodus members, the 135th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check out the other complications backing this week’s bias. 

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Greetings from America’s fertile crescent!

After a morning spent toiling away in the laboratory, it is will a sense of relief that we observe the latest results of the Index Model, which has flipped back to neutral after two weeks of bullish signalling.

Despite the precipitous fall in market prices last Wednesday, having a long bias has served our team well.  We pressed our longs and were rewarded.  Interestingly enough, there were subtle cues before the Wednesday liquidation to start working the other side of the tape.

If your inputs are objective and logical, you can confidently switch your bias in the heat of the action.

Hypo 3 morphs into primary hypo PLUS were neutral aka intra day sell opportunities #nq_f https://t.co/jWjGqB9aEe

— RAUL (@IndexModel) May 16, 2017

All of the planning that goes into my approach—the Sunday Strategy Sessions, the morning reports, Switchboard—is what allows me to trade well.  By doing my homework in public forum, it is my hope that something about what we do can make sense to someone starting out.  Like a nudge in the direction of what works for me.

There is so much garbage out there about trading.  So many people are basing their decisions on news reports or worse, gut instinct.

Every opportunity taken by the good folks of iBankCoin laboratory is decided by the algorithms inside Exodus and the scores generated by the Index Model.

With that being said, and heading into the last full week of May, we may raise some cash.  There are no clear bearish signals being offered.  However, June is the most bearish month of the year, per the $QQQ, see below:

Pair the upcoming seasonality with some of the bearish undertones noted in the 132nd Edition of Strategy Session (Exodus members, it is live now, go check it out) and you have a logical reason to raise a bit of cash.

When and how we shall do so, as always, is TBD.

There are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.  Perhaps the reaction to this economic event will help to tilt the debate of whether or not to sell IN May.

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Greetings from the misty mountaintops of the Great Smokey Mountains friends!

Despite heavy rains and high winds closing many of the roads in the region, the team of botanists and scientists at iBankCoin labs have successfully reached our research facility high atop Hill 236.  The observation deck is above the cloudline and offers a serenity to the destruction below.

The same can be said about the stock market.  While index prices climb to great heights, there are casualties below.  Like an old tree meeting its fate, natural forces have eviscerated names in the energy and biotechnology space.  While the action is pervasive, it is our opinion that the destruction will be contained.

Deep inside the laboratory database, IndexModel is churning out a signal that hasn’t been seen since late-February. It tells a story of tranquility next week.  The computers are forecasting clear skies can calm winds—a calm after the very brief storm, if you will.

Also, the bullish signal issued by the algorithms inside Exodus extends its cycle through end-of-day Monday.  The signal has been a success so far, the performance of each major index since the call is shown below:

As you can see, anyone who went long equities when the software advised it is earnings gains. BRILLIANT!

While the headlines are flooded with outrage over our new authoritarian political regime, it becomes paramount that we continue to run our investment strategy and business without bias.  A sure way to lose your objective mind is to become disturbed by information.  Remember, the stock market is not out to get you.  It is simply the net representation of all human/robotic interactions with our free markets.  The information is presented as numbers.  Sometimes these numbers are plotted as lines and bars.  A bit deeper into the analysis and you are using candles.  Nevertheless, it is simply information.

The same goes for political happenings.  Remaining engaged is a good citizen’s responsibility, and if something genuinely affects your endeavors, then take action.  However, when you allow these political things to affect you emotionally, they are winning.  You are now approaching every task with a weaker mind.

The rain may be plentiful today, but soon the skies will open and the sun will shine on the loamy soils of America, blessing out fields with hearty crops.  With a bit of work, there will be a chicken in every pot, and a loaf of break on every table.  If you simply cannot work, for mental reasons, it is best you make you head west.  The hobo lifestyle is generally accepted in California city centers.  As for the south, everything they’ve said about southern hospitality is true.  The locals have been incredibly kind to our research staff.

Signals are bullish heading into the second week of scary May. Behave accordingly.

Distinguished members of Exodus, it is with humility and a refreshed mountain mind that the 130th Edition of Strategy Session was prepared.  It is live, go check it out now!

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A warm spring greetings from the scientists at iBankCoin laboratory!

With the last day of April underway, it is with humility and patience that the 129th Edition of Strategy Session was published inside Exodus.  Inside the report, all the latest algorithmic signals and data quirks inside the software were parsed and verified to help members get a sense of what the software is suggesting as we head into May.

Investors look at May differently because it has a catchy euphemism (May, away, it rhymes!) to describe the best course of action, which is to roam through nature as it blooms instead of being glued to the stock exchange.  However, enjoying woodlands, mountains, streams, beaches, and even cities is something we can do every month with the right tools.

If we ever find ourselves so emotionally attached to our stock market exposure that we cannot look away, that anxiety could be telling a story—you have too much skin in the game.

Perhaps it is time to explore other investments, like in people.  No, not owning humans, but giving them a kick in the right direction of doing what they do best and love.  Or buy a physical asset like land or a goat.

While the temptation to ‘go away’ in May is high, especially in the north where we emerge from months of unpleasant weather, you may want to stay dialed into the action during the first week of trade.  Most importantly, we have a Fed rate decision coming up on Wednesday and like 90% of investors are expecting Yellen and her team to leave rates unchanged.  If they instead bump their target borrowing rate up 25 basis points, we could see the markets take a liquidation hit.

April saw the NASDAQ start leaving many gaps behind.  It began moving higher during extended trade and holding the gains.  This is real strength that makes it difficult for sellers to execute on their losing positions.  In total, six gaps have been left unfilled during the month.

Combine the April action with the whispers of Exodus algorithms, and we have a recipe for remaining bullish into the Fed decision.  From then on, the plan is to improvise.

The laboratory inside Exodus is operating at peak efficiency heading into May.  All operators have manned their battle stations heading into May and with data as our guide, we are ready to engage.

Exodus members, the latest Strategy Session is live, go check it out and hit me up if you have any questions!

 

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Earth day saw scientists and activists nationwide marching for science.  For whatever reason, some of the marches had socialist undertones, which is gross, but nevertheless the ultimate theme was preserving spaceship earth despite it being infested with sapiens.

Now is a good time to run through the interactive graphics Bloomberg published back in 2015, which help, with pictures, to demonstrate the human effect that is driving global warming.

Moving on, the 128th Edition of Exodus Strategy session has been published.  Much of what caused concern last week was negated.  Those topping patterns in Transports and Semiconductors turned out to be so obvious looking that they were fake (a classic reason of why technical analysis is a bit silly).  It was a good reminder that directional bias is best driven by statistical analysis—cold numbers, dead to the emotions of our monkey brains—statistics that offer advice in the most logical means available.

There is no bias heading into next week, we cannot call it.  April ends in a sloppy manner, with the last trading day of the month falling on a Monday, very sloppy.  Not good!  Therefore, this week sits in a strange realm where options have expired and the month is not ending and no major economic events are scheduled.

Perhaps the best course of action, if I may be so bold, is to explore the nearby woodlands.  Perhaps sit quiet and still for 10 minutes and watch the trees and streams come alive with life.  Then plug back into the internet/news/market matrix with your batteries refreshed.

Earth day is a serious day for science.  The good folks at iBC labs will continue working to ensure the day is not bastardized by the socialists—whose agenda best resembles that of the pigs on Animal Farm.  Ultimately, thus far, history has shown the capitalism jives better with science than any other ethos, because where science discovers utility, capitalism sees opportunity.  Opportunity which drives money flow, money flow which is funneled back into science.

Brilliant.

Everyone say a prayer today to our savior, capitalists and scientist employer Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) and buy one indulgence in the form of a Tesla share Monday to clear your soul of all the industrial red meat you consumed so far in 2017.

Wishing you another safe trip around the sun.

Sincerely,

Raul Santos

Chief Scientist and Head of Aquatic Landings

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Greetings and Hoppy Easter!

Despite today being a Christian holy day, and Christians so far being the winning religion in the world, and Christians saying to spend today eating buttered lambs and candied hams, it is with honor and humility that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratory took some time to work inside the Exodus furnace rooms and generate a Strategy Session report.  And by the looks of these stock markets, it appears it is good we updated the models.

There is some sketchiness going on right now, just in time for post tax-day option expiration.

It seems so obvious that it may be a double head fake, but the two main sub-indices we monitor every Sunday have very stereotypical topping patterns in place, see below:

Pair that with the behavior of our broad indices as we wrapped up the holiday shortened week, and you have what looks like, visually, a sellers’ market.

Then there’s this 7-week long rotation into risk aversion sectors, which is difficult to show you, so instead view the 1-month performance of each sector, as demonstrated by the SPDR Select sector ETFs:

Then add in the fact that many investors, high on the hog after nearly a year of rallying, may have underestimated their tax liabilities, and you have a recipe for raising cash.

Another caveat, and the article escapes us, but about 8 days back an article was published saying market volatility may be gone forever.

LOLz

Wish it could be queued up, but after a cursory search of the interwebs and our cluttered desks, alas it must be taken as hearsay only.

There are some other small quirks, nothing major, but relevant nonetheless that are covered in the 127th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session—quirks which pertain to the algorithms inside the software.  Members, be sure to check it out!

As for the rest of you, rest up, for tomorrow the dark hand of volatility may resurrect itself from the cave.

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