You Can Always Make It Back, Providing You Don’t Blow the Fuck Up

Happy Easter lads, lassies.

I wanted to remind many of you that success, like all things, withers and eventually wanes. No matter how good you are, even me, over a long enough time line — you will falter. Knowing this and taking into account the various ways a man can draw down, the most important thing for you to remember is to never place yourself in a position to BLOW THE FUCK UP.

Men usually do this out of greed or desperation. You might’ve lost a million and now only have $50k and feeeeel the only way back is to take outsized risk. The more likely scenario is you’ll zero out that $50k attempting a gambit. You’d be wise to proceed according to ze plan and grow it over the next decade — trying to achieve 30-50% returns per annum.

For example, if you invested $50k and added $1,000 per mo to it for the next decade, returning 35% per annum, your account will be $1.7m by 2033.

Whilst 35% is an outrageous 10 year average, it’s certainly achievable — unlike the 10,000% option gambits that so many of you try and flop out of — zeroing out unceremoniously in true vagabond fashion.

Let us take this season of renewal to reset expectations and goals and attempt to build real wealth over many years. I, as always, will be here attempting to figure it out with you and excel in a manner that appears to the layman to be nothing short of magical.

My allergies have receded and my health is once again excellent, my mood superb. I will see you troglodytes tomorrow during the trading session.

It’s a very cold and rainy day in NC. This is a good thing since it means my seasonal allergies will be relieved and I can get back to trading well on Monday. I’ve dispatched the Indians to redesign iBankCoin — but it’s taking much longer than expected. Hopefully we can finish the job before May and finally get a new look around here.

As for stocks: I offer no predictions because they’re meaningless. We know the market is bad and we know it can also rally, so we have to play it day by day.

Come May, I depart for Europe to see it before it gets destroyed. I figured now is a nice opportunity to take pictures in front of Harrods, Eiffel Tower, and the Tower of Pisa before they’re gone.

On other areas of concern, I am still reading avidly, now into Le Carre novels, Camille by Dumas — and several others. There is never a pause in my reading.

The news out there is pretty fucking wild in America, as the trannies bust loose from their mental asylums and wreak havoc across the landscape. There isn’t a political solution to any of our decadent problems, so I’d rather not engage with people with different views in an effort to change them. I don’t want to change anyone — but I can live in equanimity amongst nearly anyone — providing you are peaceful and don’t partake in wanton acts of degeneracy.

On the war front, it appears Ukraine is plotting for its next big adventure to defeat Russian forces. Imagine being tasked with the job to dislodge a far superior foe in fortified zones in a war that is systemic to them. It’s hard to see how we don’t get involved with this war at some point, with troops on the ground.

Since the weather is shitty, I’ll use the day to read, shop for food, and clean up.

We can only hope and pray that over the weekend something truly dreadful afflicts US markets and we open LIMIT DOWN come Monday. Due to my allergies, I shed 1.4% today and ended the week -3% for the week. My YTD returns have been REDUCED to just 36.2%.

What’s important to understand about trading is the emotional tumult of being in a slump and needing to do certain things to trade out of it. You will never trade out of it by being in cash or “taking some time off” like an extreme pussy.

When it comes to trading out of slumps, I am a foremost expert. In all of the slumps I’ve ever traded out of, zero of them occurred whilst being cautious. I had to take the lumps and continue to take the lumps until muscle memory kicked in and forced survival instincts to kick in.

If you want mediocre returns, just buy the indices and fuck off. If you want to make 50%+ returns per annum, you’ll need to slowly cultivate and carefully curate your methods to both appreciate and accentuate the subtle nuances that makes a great trader. I am a great trader, only because I am a sponge and consume information like no one else. If I wasn’t a sponge and curious about everything, I’d probably get mugged during every downturn and relegate myself to ETFs like many men who pretend they don’t have enough time to focus on their fucking life savings.

Next week I will make it back, and much more.

I am hedged about market neutral to slight short bias into the very long and tumultuous weekend to come.

Do not worry, I am still trading poorly. I had a hedge on from the open and kept it for most of the morning run, and it negated all of my gains and kept me down for the session — off by 85bps. If we should dive lower from here, I might find myself either revisiting SQQQ for a second clubbing or perhaps none at all and just preside, if you will, over my portfolio as it swims lower.

It is true, I am flippant about my losses — only because I realize my slump is temporary — the result of being afflicted by seasonal allergies which has caused me to be disabled. I will be parking in handicap spots for the foreseeable future.

Easter is coming which means I go to church, pretend to enjoy the taste of communion, and pretend to be religious. I do this about once per annum. When I was a boy I was an altar boy and the whole nine yards. I used to help priests at mass and in return they’d be discourteous to me. It was a good relationship — until I got older and said “fuck this shit” and never went back again. Then I became what some might describe agnostic and then an atheist and now I’m back to agnostic — only because being an aethiest is also a religion and I’m not a fan of organized religions. I have a personal credo which speaks to morality and treating others as you would expect to be treated.

For example: If someone broke into my home, I’d shoot them and that’s exactly how I’d expect to be treated if I wandered into your home to help myself to some of your personal belongings. It’s important to be fair to one another, help when possible, and try not to get in anyone’s way. If you’re getting into the way of others, you should fuck off and become an altar boy or something equally useless.

Everyone is talking about the dollar collapsing, which is voodoo for us professionals. Now that you’ve said it, it won’t happen. The dollar is relatively stable, considering the FOMC will likely pause before the ECB. It doesn’t matter if BRICS establishes their own trading block without dollars, as long as the main centers of wealth (Europe and Japan) still use dollars.

I cowered in my bed until 11am because I was afflicted with severe seasonal allergies. I find that when I am like this, it’s best to pretend being dead aka sleeping — because when that happens I suffer less. When I was awoken by a dream of mine of car horns bellowing out — I immediately sneezed and saw I was down 1.57%.

I did a little of this, little of that — and closed down 89bps for the session — placing me DOWN 1.57% for April. I am officially in a trading slump. Oh no — how will I ever get my mojo back?

Maybe I should read some books on charts or perhaps SIFT THROUGH 5,000 of them tonight over a bottle of wine to find patterns that will make me money! Or, maybe I’ll listen to some experts on a podcast and then listen to some hedge fund professionals about their secrets to success!

The market did an interesting thing today and I feeeeeeel like I was wrong to be bearish early on. Rates collapsing means less pressure on banks means higher prices. With rates dropping, this is also bullish for secular stocks.

So I did two things.

1. Eliminated all hedges.
2. LEVERAGED THE FUCK UP ON SECULAR STOCKS and a few banks.

I closed at 140% leveraged long into the final day of this holiday festooned week.

The US 10yr is down another 6bps to 3.28%, just in time for peak housing season. I suppose the Fed is really finished with inflation, after having successfully defeated it. It would be a shame if anything should happen to that narrative, say run away oil prices or perhaps corn. What has the price of corn done recently?

DOWN 7% YTD

It seems from a layman’s point of view, the Fed has in fact defeated inflation and is now moving onto its next adventure: saving banks. This one is pretty straight forward. Lower rates and help banks with their MBS pricing mechanisms.

But markets are down nevertheless. You’d think with rates down and oil stable we’d get some upward surging stocks.

Since I’ve been out of commission all day afflicted with seasonal allergies, I have fallen subject to market forces. I had ample shorts at the open and covered them at the open and then rode my longs down just like most of you. This is wholly a stupid way to invest and if you’re not proactive intra-day, every single day, you’re missing out.

I am, once again, hedged — but to the tune of 25% on top of my 100% long only book — down 1.3% so far. Into the afternoon session, I am hoping we can rally.

I really tried out there today — but my best was simply not good enough. As a matter of fact, my best caused me to close AT THE FUCKING SESSION LOWS — rock bottom — off by 2%.

In the past, a 2% drubbing might cause some resentment, anger even, as I wanted to always make money. But I can’t be the only one making money out there and it’s charitable to give others a chance too. So I lost a little money — but I feel pretty damned good about it. I’m like the regular guys now, rookie trader attempting to work from home whilst the kids and the dogs prattle in the background and the wife is asking if I need another cup of Joe. The trades moved too fast for me and every time I bought — it dunked — and every time I sold — it ripped. I lost all of my hair today and now I have to head out there, like most of you, bald and stupid — knowing I had lost money in the market today.

Oh how will I pay my bills next month?

I exited today’s barn-burner of a session, where the NASDAQ tanked by 0.5%, 40% short via inverse ETFs and UVIX. I am positively in a NET SHORT position in spite of me proclaiming to be boolish just yesterday. It seems the stars aren’t quite aligned for Pax Americana at this juncture in time and a great gloom is cast upon her bosom.

This tape is deserving of disdain. If this tape was a person, I’d spit in its face and club it to death like a blue fish.

Today feels really bad — but let’s be an NPC and get all caught up in silly things like NEWS and world events. Let’s just enjoy the market in front of us and marvel out our own achievements — knowing that by the time we are dead the entire world could go to hell in a hand basket, our relatives suffering under the pangs of fire, and none of it would affect us in the least.

There are lots of things to discuss — but why bother discussing news? How about we discuss my peanut butter and jelly sandwich — or perhaps my YTD return? Aren’t they great? Aren’t you happy for ME?

The Father of Vaccines, Donald Trump, will be arraigned today — and I only mention it in passing because I caught a glimpse of recent events while cooking up some crack for tonight’s soiree. At this soiree, we will show a great porn on the big screen and have tables filled with pink cocaine and then we’ll head out into the woods and kill some animals with gunpowder. When hunting for flesh, it’s important to bring rope — because sometimes the animal is alive and it’d be a shame to waste expensive munitions on a wounded carcass. You can strangle the game with the rope and then take it back to your house to gut and clean.

I am still down 1.18% for the session, outright wondering when God is gonna pay attention to me.

Yesterday I felt my hubris was gonna lead to a swift kick to the scrotum. I enjoyed the melt up too much and really boasted about it. I even posted on the front page of ibc a picture of terrorist Jihad John with the title ‘BEARS GET THEIR HEADS CUT OFF CLEAN,’

What sort of monster does that?

Clearly, as you can see, I am demonstrating some contrition here — regret even. I closed out my leveraged longs and took a 20% TZA hedge as a penance, which also serves as protection against those seeking to harm me.

In a sense, TZA is like having my own Jihad John guarding my office door, eager to cleave off the heads of anyone attempting to see me without first having an appointment.

See there I go again.

At some point I’m gonna lose a lot of money, being this obnoxious. Maybe the new car got to my head, the big Subaru with all of the new gadgets. Perhaps I’m disconnected to the proles and need to visit a soup kitchen in order to drop slop onto the bowls of the underclass.

Either way, if I’m being honest, I really feel that I’ve been good enough to deserve more gains. I know I know, I’m already up 42% for the year and that’s plenty for 3 years worth ot returns. But I really sense that I’m a special person deserving of special gains. Maybe I should make 300% this year, amidst pomp and glory. Maybe I’ll walk around in Roman robes and sandals, tossing slop onto the bowls of the underclass from atop my big Subaru.

Bottom line: I appear to have hacked into the matrix and possess the secret keys to investment success.

I tried to warn you — but you chose to shit onto your portfolios and go bankrupt.

I moved higher again by 1.27% — pressing my YTD to 42%.

I’m actually leveraged at 130% of assets — because who can stop me? Will I draw down 2 or 3% tomorrow? Perhaps. But given my state of consciousness with this tape, I will make it all back and much much more.

Today’s rally was spearheaded by oil and AI stocks, an odd blend of narratives to weave through — but this is exactly what makes sense. The AI arms races is just beginning and there will be dozens of companies vying for a piece of the action.

Stocklabs has been using AI since inception, utilizing backtesting tools to predict possible outcomes. This is the whole premise behind the overbought/oversold signals.

Nevertheless, I wish I had something exciting to share — other than I UPGRADED to a new car this weekend. I figured with all of the new money I’m making, I at least deserved the BIG Subaru and not just the mid-size. Now I’m a SubaGURU lesbian aristocrat and those who glance at my visage show me immediate respect out of fear of losing my favour.