FACTS UPON FACTS: MARKETS DO NOT CRASH IN THE SPRING

I have most unpleasant mood for my bearish readers out there: markets are not likely to crash this spring. Don’t take my word for it — go ahead and look at the data. We, on occasion, get some summer doldrums, and most certainly CRASH THROUGH THE FUCKING FLOORBOARDS during Fall. But in the spring, a time for renewal, we are likely to plod along and drift a little higher or a little lower.

Stocklabs seasonality for QQQ 2000-date

I know it sucks and we might be better off with stocks much lower and PAX AMERICANA as we know it in shambles. Alas, the tranny parade continues and the degeneracy of our people commences amidst pomp and circumstance and a general dumbing down by way or vice. We can get angry about it in the same way BASED ROMANS were upset in 400 AD. The simple fact of the matter is, as a species the dominant rule, one way or another, and those fuckers who dominant can lead people towards the path of grace or ruin. We are, without question, heading for a HISTORICAL COLLAPSE OF EPIC PROPORTIONS and I’m afraid the only way out is through the fires.

That said, I once again am up 90bps, fully invested with mild hedges. I also, for the first time ever, added $BTC as a permanent 5% holding and will add to it monthly to ensure it maintains 5%.

What do I think will happen next?

I just fucking said it: drift a little higher or a little lower.

PREPARE YOURSELVES for melancholy times amidst gin and tonics, orange twist — small splash of bitters and a gentle breeze in a sun washed environ — overseeing blossoming flowers and bright green lawns. Your portfolios will not be threatened until June.

It was working out pretty good for olde Joe. He had his trannies, money schemes, his wars, and he even had a pretty benign recession due to moderate job losses and cheap energy. But over the weekend the House of Saud threw a fork at Biden’s head and now it’s sticking, as they and Russia cut production by over a million barrels per day to support prices.

If you’re OPEC +, this move is justified, since America has flooded the market with over 200 million barrels of its SPR to rig prices down. The deal was, America would do this to fuck Russia — but then later on refill it at the start of 2023. But it seems Biden and Co got greedy and reneged on their side of the deal ( empire of lies ) so now everyone else is taking matters into their own hands.

BUT DON’T COUNT OUT SPITEFUL JOE AND CO JUST YET!

Remember the lessons of natural gas and how they somehow completely destroyed that price, amidst all of the fanfare of “Europe freezing” due to the war.

I don’t believe there are shortages of anything, anywhere.

As is customary, I liquidated my stocks in both trading and quant, since it’s a new month and will reallocate after 12pm.

My opinion on stocks remain: underweight tech, healthcare, overweight basic materials — hedge when stocks go down.

The NASDAQ rose 9% but the Russell 2000 fell by 5.4%. In Stocklabs, all stocks fell by 4.5% during March — but that weakness was masked by the very good performance of large capped stocks, seeing the SPY rise by 3%.

Basically, if you caught wind of the divergence early you banked during March. If you held onto losers, hoping for them to come back — you ended the month sharply lower. These sort of divergences usually iron themselves out — but it is RARE to see the IWM down so much at the same time the QQQ rose.

Aside from COVID era 2020, there isn’t another occasion in recent history when the IWM fell by more than 5%, the closest being 2001 at -4.8%.

To make sense of all this would require a time machine. It’s important to note several known things.

Inflation is abating

Rates have moderated

The Banking crisis has not ended

The Fed isn’t helping

The war continues to rage

Under all of these conditions, expect a lot of quick moves, as we dance between falling knives from the sky. I do not condone being in cash, as it causes traders to become lazy and stupid. Be 100% invested at all times in a portfolio of fundamentally and technically strong stocks — which means they must have free cash flow.  Use your margin to hedge or buy more to boost returns. If markets look scary, hedge more. When the fear abates, close out your shorts.

If you bothered to give a shit about your money you’d see this is easy to do.

You should be envious — but I hope that you’re not. Any person who goes to the internet in the manner that I do and boast and holler and yell at people — bragging in such a manner must cause some degree of irritation amongst the prole class of person.

Hey — LOOK AT ME peacocking up 40.44% for the year.

Oooh, that’s impressive — isn’t it? I must be super smart. What did those gains do for me, you might ponder? Absolutely nothing.

Is iBankCoin more traveled than last year?

A little.

How about Stocklabs? Are you enjoying a booming business due to your absolute brilliance in the markets?

Positively No.

I think my blog ad rates are up to around $45 per blog now — so that’s impressive. The only issue there, as of my last daily update, my ad vendor decided not to pay me this month. Perhaps his money was held up at SVB. I should be empathetic.

I do not expect to change the lives of many — because men do what men want. If, by chance, I help a few out along the way — then it’s all worthwhile. This isn’t exactly a charity, as I am afforded some luxuries out of reach for most. But for some odd reason, I keep thinking that I deserve more. This is a feeling I cannot shake and I always need to remember that, in the end, people get what they deserve.

Into Q2, I am unhedged and I even own some FRC — since I am up so much and can afford a brief drawdown. All in all, I cannot recall a better winning streak and feel for the market than now. I’ve had bigger percentage gains in runaway tapes. But everyone was making money then. This +40.44% is impressive, not because it’s a lot of money — but because I did it when mostly everyone else suffered. For me, that’s what it’s all about.

INDEUD.

The market is white hot now, amidst the news of Trump destined for prison on ironically Trumped up charges. Perhaps investors believe this is just the thing to endear Trump to America for another term. I just happen to think he’ll end up the way of Assange.

I made some appropriate moves today and pressed my fate with the gods, +233bps in spite of a crashing of one of my quant generated picks: AEHR -16%.

Yesterday all was lost and forlorn. Today I’m tossing bowling balls down at the ants below. This is the life of a Senor Tropicana, captain of industry.

I’ll probably buy some more FAZ by the end of the day, as I close out March in extreme style up more than 13%.

I made a pastiche of errors which led to my swift dispatch towards SESSION LOWS and I am delighted by the specter of having to roll up the olde sleeves and MAKE IT ALL BACK, and more. Adversity is good for the soul and since my health is very excellent and my mood superb, I thought it would be fine to lose some money today, and so I did.

I edged lower by 122bps and was in search of a clue all day and for the love of God — I had no idea what I was doing out there — fumbling over myself — making a fool out of me and everyone who mirrored into my trades.

All that said, I was in search of the alleged bear market.

NASDAQ 100

And I found it here.

Russell Small Cap

We have some real doldrums in the small caps — piece of shit companies not afforded the express protection of the US govt and its foreign interlopers.  I took a small TZA hedge, long NUGT position and additional longs of the ribald nature to offer me a very positive net long position heading into Friday.

Earnings season is fast upon us and Q1 is ending with a bullish intonation — with markets up 20% since December.

In summary, The Fly lost money today in true moron fashion and his run may in fact be over. It was a very excellent journey into profit and I was happy to be a part of it. But all things whither and eventually end, so I am eternally grateful whenever things go my way and will always reflect upon these days as the very best.

SCHW has been dealing with the ‘cash sorting’ issue for about a year. In layman’s terms, there has been on ongoing run on the Charles Schwab bank for a year, as clients transfer out of their weak money market accounts in exchange for treasuries. The simple fact of the matter is, banks cannot compete with the Fed and now need to figure out alternative methods to keep cash in house.

A downward spiraling stock market doesn’t help.

Today we are seeing -30% PIN ACTION in MCB. But that doesn’t matter. Nothing matters other than FRC, PACW and SCHW. Even if the FDIC guaranteed all assets, it would not change consumer behavior — which is to find higher yields for their money.

Because of this, the FOMC will need to LOWER RATES and soon. If not, all eyes on the likes of SCHW as they circle the drain to $00.00.

Fear mongering 101 demands that if SCHW opens down 5% tomorrow, on a Friday, people will panic the fuck out of stocks — out of systemic risk fears. On the matter of systemic risk, we are seeing how people behave during a mini crisis — barreling headlong into BTC and GLD. I’d advise you to take measures to build both or at least one into your asset allocation models.

Renew the plunge. Sell all banks. Make Mr. Schwab cry.

Until we resolve the issue of FRC and PACW and other weak regionals, SCHW and friends will continue to suffer and the contagion will continue to fester. The govt needs to find buyers of these piece of shit banks and SCHW needs to figure out how to keep the plebs money in house.

I was bullish coming in, but much less so now that I see the banks are dumping out again. I am presently without hedges, but that will likely change from now to 4pm.

I had 10 stocks lined up for purchase to LEVERAGE myself into tomorrow. Bro, I was feeeeeeling so bullish. I was like, bro, “this shit is going to moon.” And then it dawned on me to ignore all of my animal sentiments and do the complete opposite.

For the record, I AM BOOLISH AS FUCK and have a 100% long book. But because I feeeeeeel this way and when emotions get involved people tend to get tricked and fooled, I maintained a slightly underwater TZA position at an astounding 40% of assets using leverage.

If markets run up tomorrow morning, best case I’ll be flat.

THIS IS A NET SHORT POSITION AND A BET AGAINST PAX AMERICANA.

Wish me luck.

I made 1.27% for the session, gains frozen since 2:30pm.

OFF TO THE FUCKING GYM.

I locked in gains of +130bps vis a vie opening up a massive long position in TZA. Ostensibly, I am net short with 40% in TZA — but that can change swiftly — with just 1 or 2 red candles sending it up 1%. I will most likely liquidate it and pray to the Gods for good fortune.

The daily trend has been to fade the morning pops and buy the dips. The overall trend has been sanguine, especially in the face of crisis. For all intents and purposes, the banking crisis is over. The next panic, however, is just around the bend.

I have no bias in my trading — but an egregious one inside of my brain and in my heart. My soul craves for COLLAPSE but I am content, and patient, to just plod along with the status quo — providing it suits me.

What suits me is supremacy in trading, having a fun time writing, making people laugh, providing panic when people need it most etc.

I feel like I’m on borrowed time so everything is gravy, more or less.

Into the final hours, I am expecting some weakness. Let’s see if I’m right.