Help Me Understand This Fucking Tape

Since I obviously haven’t the slightest idea what I am doing today — perhaps you — the unwashed reader class of person can illuminate this for me.

Here is the fucking backdrop.

Geopolitics: next to apocalyptic
Market Breadth: 26%
Inverse ETFs: $LABD +9%, $TZA +5%, $SRTY +5% $SQQQ -0.44%. REALLY CUNTS?

VIX: $UVIX -2.4% — REALLY?

Small caps -1.9%
NASDAQ FLAT

Listen to me now — I would bet my life this market CAREENS THE FUCK LOWER. I’m so confident I wouldn’t even want a reward. My life for lower stocks. If it goes lower, I am just right. If it gaps up, I die.

For the love of God — the rigging must end.

I do realize this is loser talk, always blaming external enemies for internal faults. HOWEVER, look at it.

I am now 43% short, 16% cash — obstinately down 100bps.

I’m pretty sure the stock Gods are now completely focused on my every move. If I sell ABC, they bid it up. If I buy XYZ, it collapses. In many regards, I am bogged. Perhaps I deserve it. Perhaps I’ve been tweeting too much on X, disseminating the wrong type of news and have annoyed them. Whatever the case may be, I have have OUTSIZED losses to the down side today, off by 144bps, extremely stupid and dreadfully retarded.

Small caps plunged at the open. Good thing I had shorts in large caps. Markets were weak, except for volatility. Good thing I was long volatility and $UVIX is careening lower. Just a short while ago, I bought a handful of larger cap stocks do offset my SQQQ for a momentary pause — but those too have gone lower and now I am off by 151bps.

Here is the problem.

If I close out my shorts now — the markets will of course crash. The second I do it — stocks will fall. Trust me on this. But if I hold them, we might soar into the afternoon and beyond.

I could always add to my shorts, just to anger the stock Gods even further. Perhaps I might tweet some more news to annoy them or find a way to mock them, such as saying something like this.

Listen here, cunts. You cannot get away with doing this to me. I want to speak to your manager. I am going to get you fired.

There, I feel better already.

It’s worth noting, no one should listen to a damned thing I have to say about stocks now — since I am cursed, moping about in a losers gait, both stupid and dense.

Cheers.

About Mid-afternoon I was feeling my oats, fully in control and boastful of being a war market general — easily navigating the waters — taking bounty at my leisure — resting scornfully in the tall grass.

In the final hour of trade, however, my fortunes reversed in what I can only describe in a retarded way.

The move higher was predictable, any person not lying in the tall grass in search of prey saw it coming. I kept my $UVIX and $SQQQ, mostly because I too was retarded, and attempted to cosmetically shift away from that carnage by leveraging up long into an array of stocks — frantically buying anything I could get my paws on. The easiest coarse of action, and I knew this as I follied, would by to close out the shorts and book the gains. Instead of that, I have losses of $15k and climbing in them. Overall, I shed just 20bps — giving up session high gains of 60bps in the process of resting easily and calmly looking for collapse. In the midst of all that, a giant homosexual elephant snuck up from behind and stomped out my lion’s teeth.

At the present, I am still fighting the gay elephant and hope to have better news tomorrow, as I am fixed in a morass of idiocy — flat for the week and flat for October.

It always goes this way, especially when emotional about a trade — the dreadful imposition of ego commingled into the job of following direction. Hitherto, I had been in control and possessed a clear vision of the future. But right now, I’m trapped in a jungle fending off flamboyant elephants and feces throwing gorillas with bananas in tow.

Pray for Fly.

I’m up 40bps into the latter hours of the session. I closed out my treasury long and kept my shorts, whilst also adding to a pastiche of longs. It’s a difficult thing to do, betting on collapse at the same time collapse isn’t happening. One might surmise I’m entirely delusional — betting against stocks. It has always been a fool’s errand to partake in the betting against of stocks, since in large part they almost always go higher.

Nevertheless, I remain hopeful in seeing it through and will wade into longs to preserve both my dignity and capital as needed.

The market took on a glum demeanor about an hour or two ago when reports circulated that missiles and drones had been streaming out of Lebanon into Israel. Such reports have been largely discounted or thrown out altogether. The small caps were down nearly 1% and now they’re only off by 0.47%.

Into the final hour, judging by the action, we might see some churn — false collapses and even falser surges to the upside. I do not expect much change, as we’re presently in a holding pattern with markets reeling from recent losses, attempting to rally off the lows, while at the same time dealing with some really negative geopolitical news. I suppose at the end of the day, the news of war isn’t all that bad for stocks. I hate to be that guy — but it’s true.

Good morning —

I had to bail out of most of my oils this morning as the price suddenly swooned lower. I added to my UVIX position and some military contractors and now patiently sit in the tall grass waiting for the mustard seeds to grow and flourish like wild flowers.

There are innumerable ways this market can collapse, mostly off the weight of its own hubris. Slowly but surely, the foundations of it fribble away — like hard pieces of earth being washed away by a hard current. I am of course prepared for all theatricalities, as all professional money managers should — especially during a time of war. Whilst my gains are bountiful for the year, +38% — I cannot be mollified. I endeavor, if I might say so, to profit mightily from the coming collapse and sit restive — both fixed and focused — as the unwashed catamite longs herald in what they believe to be a bull market renewed — but instead invite ravenous discord.

The gaieties will soon end and with it the sinister schemes of quill pushers and blackguardly caitiffs.

Early going, the NASDAQ is +77 with bond yields coming in. I happen to be long bonds via $TMF and feel in a risk off event we can finally see rates coming down on the 10yr BELOW 4%. Perhaps there is a silver lining in all of the death and carnage, after all.

Good Day —

I come to you with grim news of a second aircraft carrier being dispatched to Israel, which means we now have roughly 200-300 warplanes in the area. It would seem this is just for show — but in the off-chance it isn’t and instead designed to strike at Iran — in order to kill two birds with one stone, disabling their ability to help Russia in Ukraine — I’ve felt it necessary to issue a warning to all those reading me now.

There are very few moments in time when actual surprises to the downside could happen on a geopolitical scale. We are now inside of the beast now and anything can happen. Because of the turmoil boiling over, I’ve taken measures to protect myself with a little VIX and some SQQQ — long an array of oil and defense stocks — prepared for all eventualities.

While you sit there with your stupid face laughing at all of the carnage and bloodshed, entertained from the comforts of your piece of shit homes — forces move against you.

Markets have shot higher today based off war. The idea of it causes erections in many people in America — mostly due to their sexual perversions and inadequacies. Listen to me now – a pallor of doom is affixed to humanity and the candor of the commentary, calling for genocide, is palpable.

Pay attention and good luck.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned living in America it is the people are easily tricked, fooled even, into supporting just about any war the government suggests to them is a “good cause.”This of course isn’t unique to America and these games have been played on people since the beginning of time — by the ruling elite.

They’ll find a pretext or a compelling narrative, gin up some ethnic emotions — and BAM — next thing you know you’re attending your sons funeral, who is regarded as a “hero” for getting his head shot off in some place he’d never naturally travel to — all for the glory of the state.

The NASDAQ is +167 on 83% positive breadth. You simply cannot keep the sellers away. The more bombs that are dropped — the higher it goes.

It seems as events unfold in Israel, the Russians might’ve broken through an important line in Ukraine. Perhaps Russia can gin up some emotions at home too and convince some 18 years olds to fight for the glory of Russia, now that they’ve made a breakthrough.

If you’re paying attention, I’m completely blackpilled by it all and view the rally as folly. It’s true, we were extremely oversold and the market was long overdue to rally. But a sustainable rally would entail a catalyst — one that I cannot envision at this time.

HOWEVER, I will keep an open mind and hope to get back on track soon.

I’m +15bps, sold all of my longs in my trading account and hold a 15% position in $SQQQ.

I felt it necessary to discuss some of the recent events transpiring in Israel — clarifying my thoughts into words on a subject matter that should not be up for debate. There are universal moral ethics shared by people in the west that may in fact not exist in the east. The targeting of women and children, also known as “soft targets”, are rarely if ever primary targets of western militaries — but more of a byproduct of protracted war. I’m sure you can dredge up examples contradicting my opinion — but on the whole — men in the west view it to be sacrilege and find it extremely hateful to conduct warfare in such a manner.

Whatever your feelings might be on Israel — no one deserves to be gunned down at a festival. From a military standpoint, this only served to embolden your enemy and reciprocate in kind. If you had men willing to spend their lives for the cause of Palestine, dare I suggest hitting “hard targets” and attempting to achieve tangible military goals, instead of a prison break straight out of 500BC whose sole aim was to rape, pillage, and burn unarmed innocents alive.

I’m hardly what one would consider a zionist and place the interests of my people in America first and foremost. I view the plight of the people’s in the Middle East as one of a chaotic morass of cowardice — lacking a sophistication that could ever lead to a military success. If serious about the Palestinians — where are the Egyptians or the Jordanians or even the boogeymen in Iran?

It’s true, the United States is a formidable power to go up against and everyone rather enjoys their palaces and way of life — and it’d be a shame if something happened to that. It seems, and this is from an outsiders point of view, the Arabs either lack the gumption to see it through or they just don’t care all that much about Palestine.

As for markets — I meandered and rested lazily in the tall grass — up just 12bps for the session — hedged and careful — trying to weigh my risks versus rewards methodically — waiting for an opportunity to present itself to me.

Some might argue today was such a day — with markets going from crimson red to homosexual green. I agree. But, I missed it because of my bias and hatred for the market, an insatiable desire to view to much lower to the downside. No worries — I managed to make a little money whilst waiting for the markets to burn. My sense is, the war in Israel will either escalate very quickly and all at once — or not at all — and things will then go back to the way they were — which of course was a formidable albatross around the necks of overeager bulls.

Markets are now green, erasing an early 100 point plus deficit on the NASDAQ. We had what looked like a traditional risk off tape, with bonds soaring, gold and the dollar surging, and defense stocks acting defensively. Instead of the rout which was predicted by more emotional people on the internets, it would seem the stoics have taken over again — placing large bets on the market — sopping up the blood from the wars with their money.

I’ve been forced into tactically shifting against a strong bias of mine: which is to see markets collapse. Since that is not happening and I do possess a keen mind towards preservation of capital and success — I have a very long book now and possess gains of 25bps.

This will annoy a great many of you, mostly due to your own insecurities and lack of panache. Just know, and find solace in this — better men than you traverse markets and understand when to ebb and when to flow.

Into the final hours, I expect nothing less than abject hedonism — a true post modernist display of greed and depravity.

The recent events out of Israel have caused quite a commotion on X — with people sniping at one another — one side calling for an end to Israeli occupation and the other calling for a complete “wiping out” of the terrorists who reside in Gaza and the West Bank. I am not properly educated on the history of this Biblical feud, so I’ll refrain from offering amateur “expert advice.”

What I will say to you now is to expect for natural laws to be demonstrated widely and aspersions cast without guard-rails — war on an industrial scale will continue and expand. The events in Ukraine coupled with the new conflagration in Israel and the insatiable demand for blood by people on the right and the left — all but cement future eventualities will entail escalation.

Your opinions no longer matter and the die has been cast. Western powers must mobilize and expand their industrial heft in order to supply both Ukraine and Israel. You might not like it — but both parties support this initiative and the people are, once again, in a post 9/11 fervor — clamoring for war and spoils, the natural order of things since man invented the spear.

As for markets — the reaction is rather inconsequential — with large gains in military defense contractors and oils — minor drawdowns in airlines, retail and healthcare.

I closed out my hedges and now am long — up 18bps — in possession of a 61% cash position — carefully allocating — mindful of the times I’m living in — cognizant that emotions are running hot. At the end of the day, I am a professional of the highest order and will maintain equanimity whilst the world churns and burns around me.