I DESERVE MORE

Here’s what I’m thinking. My gains from earlier today of +2.5% are supposed to be mine and the fact that I’ve been mugged for them doesn’t necessarily means I cannot have them back. Hear me out.

Instead of dealing with current realities, I prefer to live in the past — at least for the day. I will leverage to the hilt in CHINESE BURRITO stocks, since they’re the diciest plays I can find. Then I will sit back, relax, and eagerly await for the Gods to reward me.

I am a good person, great even, and deserve more.

At the time of this bloggery, I was up +.50%.

I was so happy this morning. I was 142% leveraged long and it all worked. I was +2.5% at the open and I cleanly removed my leverage and booked gains. It felt good. And then a little weakness entered the fray and then a lot, and then it fucking collapsed.

By the time I applied hedges it was too late. The market had already been blown the fuck out and most stocks down 4% from their highs. It was magnificent. And now I’m in a weird place where I’m down on stocks and my hedges, because I chased, and fully down 41bps into a heavily margined account — waiting now for a full collapse.

We were gonna be rich, millionaire even, traveling to work in stretch limos and drinking our coffee from chalices made from gold. But now we’re just lounging around like salamanders thinking about the beautiful open and how it all went wrong.

Let me explain something to you. I cannot be stopped — not now, not ever. I crawled out from the steerage class this morning and ended up flying the fucking airplane, former pilots toss out of the cargo hole and the passengers on my plane pleasantly surprised by the drunken volatility of the new pilot — +3.22% for the session.

I have successfully PRESSED MY RIGHTS, the rights of man, during the month of January and now up nearly 10% YTD.

I concluded the session with a ribald portfolio of high octane, heavily shorted and hated names — 143% LEVERAGED LONG into the teeth of a scary market and war and all of the trimmings of post modernism ending of Pax Americana.

I just don’t give a fuck.

Please refrain from offering me financial advice. On occasion, after I pen a rather glum attestation of my trading, my email box is FESTOONED with advice blurbs by random actors attempting to impress upon me some sort of wisdom that can be gleaned and polished in order to permit me to achieve some level of success in the markets. I will remind you, I am a professional manager of money, licensed BY LAW to be a fiduciary. I am what others might call “an expert” or “an authority” on all things finance.

Early this morning I was tempted to believe in the sinking boat theory but was quickly reminded “YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL SIR. Take the easy trade”. And so I did.

This win is important, +150bps, because most of you, the reader class, have been hung by the neck for dead. The entire market was blown out this morning and a great many of you got chased out and chased into inverse ETFs. I will pass this piece of advice down to you, since I believe it has relived me a great deal since late 2022.

GET IN 100% LONG and trade around it.

Easy and simple — but it isn’t if you aren’t following a religion as I am.

The weekly quant in Stocklabs selects my longs each Monday and I do not touch them until the next Monday — NO MATTER WHAT. They are static positions, a reality of life, and I just have to deal with them. This permits me to focus on day trades and overnight hedges: my wheelhouse.

Now some of you might say “but Fly, what about picking stocks?”

WHAT ABOUT IT? The fucking Quant returned 7% last year in monthly holds in a year when the market got blown the fuck out. It has proven to pick good stocks — because it’s simply looking at the best stocks fundamentally and technically. Whilst I might be able to do better, psychologically — this frees me to do other things.

Into the close, I am likely to add back hedges.

The market was speeding ahead as fast as it could, up until it rolled over a sharp nail. Now we’re deflating and it won’t be long until we stop completely and collapse — unless of course we get some bad news to trade off from and provide us with some more air to keep the dream alive.

Since I entered heavily hedged, I’m actually flat for the session. Normally I’d close out my hedges and hope for the market to turn and I might still do that. In the past, buying all morning dips was a good idea. My sole reservation is that the market was already up too much and now we have some concerns about earnings.

MSFT had been up 5% after posting results and now the stock is down 4%. NOT GOOD.

ON THE OTHER HAND, we are also seeing rotation out of growth and back into risk averse stocks like SJM, MCK, and LMT.

BOTTOM LINE: we knew it was overheated and now we’re being tested. If we are in a true bull market, we will recover. Pick a side and good luck.

More later.

Hard to describe my plight today. I was thrashed about with all sort of emotions — starting out hugely long and leveraged into a broken exchange and 2.6% in losses to nearly full recovery and then I tripped into a series of blunders on both the long side and short, culminating into a disastrous end whereby I leveraged up long only to quickly reverse to short and instead of booking quick gains — bore witness to a series of FUCK YOU CANDLES to the upside which melted my face off and closed me pinned down 2.17% for the session.

This is the sort of session that haunts me, makes me believe someone is peering over my shoulder, accessing my trades in order to ruin me.

After the close, Microsoft and Amazon are spiking which all but assures I will open DOWN tomorrow, as I am leaning short into what I thought was a reversal.

If I wasn’t so grizzled and numb to this sort of thing, I might’ve cried today — out of rage of course — not sadness. I might’ve paced back and forth and pulled at my hair and pondered how I could be so stupid. But instead, I glibly circumvented the tape and my positions and posited that I’d be in for some setbacks due to some curse or hex that wad once again placed upon me. I’ve been fighting off these hexes my entire life, Voodoo magicians chasing after me and my fortune — always trying to annihilate me. Truth is, they got me now and again but I will be back with splendor to sever off their heads and dagger out their eyes.

I believe Germany has agreed to send their renowned Leopard II tanks to Ukraine, all 20 or 30 of them — in addition to some of Polands and perhaps a few other countries. We also heard from Biden that we might send over a “significant amount” of our older M1A1 models — in order to protect the democracy of Ukraine which was achieved via violent coup in 2014.

The end game, of course, is these new tanks will sashay through the woods of Ukraine and travel like eels all the way to Crimea, with HIMARs rockets covering their path. Perhaps next we might send some old submarines to the Ukrainians in order to retake Sevastopol.

I understand Russia is completely out of ammo and have very few tanks left, in addition to 90% of their men already killed in Bakhmut — so it’s basically over for them.

The harsh reality for Russia is as follows: Even though you lost 1 million men fighting for Kiev against Nazis in world war 2 and there are nazi elements in Ukraine now being armed with German tanks — the Ukraine belongs to the GLOBOHOMO now and after the war concludes, we will ensure gender studies are taught and have all sorts of feminist projects cropping up throughout the country — promoting independence from the “toxic white males” who just won the war against Russia. We will need to IMPORT new males of a darker varietal into Ukraine to fill the spaces of those left behind or who left, teach gay sex to your children and encourage them to “explore their identities” by cutting off their tits and dicks — creating a wonderful pastiche of diversity into what was once ancient Rus lands.

We will do this and there is nothing Russia or anyone else can do about it.

Major fuck you candles underway this morning, as the NYSE cracked asunder from dozens of trading halts and acts of grave depravity. I was entreated to a leveraged long book down 2.8% at the open, only to see nearly breakeven inside 15 mins. Then I got fooled, made some bad trades, and stand before you in the middle -1.2%.

I’m presently hedged via SQQQ at 15% because I have no idea which trap door will appear next.

This of course is part and parcel of any cosmopolitan market — one befitted with the finest people and firms.

I finished the session +240bps, OFF 50bps from the highs. Although sad over this COLLAPSE on my PNL, I believe I remedied this by LEVERAGING LONG at 140% of my equity into that I believe will be a grandiose short squeeze, by which the skulls of the bears will be pressed heavily into a vice — cracking them like graham crackers, causing their brains to spill out into the sewers below.

I don’t care if I give back here, for I am +8% MTD and can afford to give back 4% in a session and still be on pace for outperformance. I will, you should know, be correct most times and most times make markets gains of the exceptional varietal.

I am where I am now, at RECOURD HIGHS, not because I am a good stock picker. There are plenty of those to go around, some even better than me. I am here at RECOURD HIGHS now because I understand how to manage risk during the bad times and preserved my gains carefully, babied them, in order to extend my fist into the market during ebullience.

Explaining this to you is on par with a rocket scientist telling a class filled with 9th graders how space works.

It’s worth noting the SMH is +15.5% MTD, which represents the biggest return for January since 2001. For those of you who recall January of 2001, it was a gallant era — the height of the AUGHTS — just prior to its demise. We all basked in the not so distant past of being dot com pioneers — dreaming about the day when Amazon dot com finally overtook Barnes and Noble as the chief distributor of books online. Our Lycos browsers were on auto-refresh — and we gleaned ideas from Mr. Pink Esq inside the Yahoo message boards.

Then February came ’round and reminded us of our sins. The degenerate behavior of 1999-2000 revisited in January was revoked in Feb — with the SMH tumbling an electric 29%. I recall the time, quite vividly actually — since my brokerage firm had just moved into brand new offices and remembered my cold callers getting hung up on more than usual. It was the beginning of the end — which was later topped off with a CRASHING OF THE WORLD TRADE TOWERS in September of that year.

Perhaps we too might enjoy some kinetic energy of that sort, perhaps even, if I might suggest, a major war that causes congress to reinstate the draft.

Markets are quite boring. I am +295bps and 105% long. Today is the first day of the NEW Stocklabs WEEKLY QUANT, which I refresh as needed from time to time. The point of the weekly quant is, frankly, to force me to be long. If it weren’t for this discipline, me being the horrible bearshitter that I am, I’d miss out on all rallies. When I see a bear salient forming, I simply apply margin and sell short to hedge.