Doom Came Up Short

You don’t really give a fuck about what I did today — only what I think will happen tomorrow. So I’ll get all of the selfish shit out of the way first. I was +96bps and I covered my massive bank and semi shorts and opened JUST IN CASE a 12% long in UVIX, along with some additional longs. I am net long here with only the VIX for dramatic effect.

We were supposed to dive down and bury ourselves alive — but we didn’t. Lots of regionals, like ZION and LOB, reversed and went higher. Charles Fucking Schwab was pinned to highs all day. I know and I get it — it’s annoying.

But this is what is likely to occur.

The cunts in power will weasel out of this for a short while. They’ll do some joint ECB-FED plan to paper over the banks, offer unlimited this and that. All of that will make us feeeeel real good and markets will climb. In a few months the economy will prove to be NOT AS RESILIENT and we might crescendo lower again.

If forced to make a call, I’d say as of right now — the globohomo won. Today was the day we had to press their faces into the griddle. Now it’s our faces being panini’d and if we’re not careful we might become sandwiches for some faggot bulls.

Look, all I am saying is give yourselves a break — you’ve earned it. Take a few months off from trading. Go to Europe like me and see the continent before it’s completely destroyed by Belarus. I will be here trading and will continue to trade, even from beyond the grave. It was a very sad and somber day for the bears. All we want is for GLOBAL COLLAPSE AMIDST COLOSSAL SIZED LOSSES — GRAVE REVOLTS — AND PEOPLE SKINNED ALIVE AT THE GIBBET.

It’s entirely possible that it might be I skinned alive by some shithead tranny in a NY Yankees dress. I am aware of the peril I place myself in and to be honest — I look forward to the occasion!

Good Sirs —

You thought you escaped the war trade and then the regional banking run. You celebrated with memes — after you had shilled for bailouts. You posited bailouts were bad prior to it effecting you. The moment if effected you — you started to suck government dick.

Let me describe my bearishness to you.

I am keeping my money in AT RISK banks because I want to lose it all. I want the banks to seize up and fail — the whole kit and caboodle plummet into the fiery oceans taking me with it. I do not endeavor to survive the great fires. Oh no, that would be cowardice. I’d like to perish in the fires alongside you — but only with an expression of utter happiness on my face as if Santa Claus just left me a tricycle for Xmas.

We went from inflation to DEBILITATING DEFLATION in an instant and let me tell you — DEFLATION IS WORSE.

Dollar shortages and PLUNGING commodity prices demands sharply lower stock prices. Whilst you might believe you will make it — you will not. A great tragedy is upon you and there isn’t enough money to bail out all the banks in addition to propping up the bastardized state of Ukraine.

As for me, I am +1.2% today and should be up a great deal more. However, since December I’ve forced myself into a 100% long book via the Stocklabs quant, so all of my hedging is what’s making me green now.

I am 20% FAZ, 20% SOXS and I might just leave it there — more than content with my pittance of a gain whilst getting to enjoy the plummeting of stocks and all of the other things which make up Pax Americana.

Shares of CS are down more than 25% this morning on basic fundamental math which says the company is at risk of default. The 5yr CDS are at RECOURD highs; but more importantly, the 6mo CDS are at 1500 — nearly a 1000bps inversion over the 5yr. In other words, it’s over.

Shares of nearly all European banks are HAMMERED to bits and pieces, whilst at the same time — Le Fly reigns supreme +210bps thanks to a very large overnight UVIX position.

Our regionals are getting SMASHED again with PACW and FRC down 15-18%. I’d like to offer you even worse news if I can — but that’s all I got for now.

Do not underestimate the asshole dip buyers. You saw those fucking retards out there on Twitter yesterday — jerking off to shares of FRC. Those animals are still on the loose.

As for me, I closed out UVIX and opened a small 10% position in FAZ — just for fun. Should we gander into another credit crisis, I’d be very sad if I did not profit from it in some sort of fashion.

My playbook is as follows:

Avoid morning nonsense. Re-enter heavily SHORT into the afternoon and hope for the very worst this evening.

I was hopeful heading into today we’d really see a banking collapse. Instead, I was offered a sword into my stomach via VIX collapse. I had a big UVIX position. I closed it out and then forayed into FAZ and made some coin there, as the banks COLLAPSED late in the session — reversing massive gains.

Into the last hour of trade I thought it’d be a swell idea to foray back into UVIX — for revenge and all. It started off ok and then I kept adding to it and adding to it and then in the last 15 mins news hit that the DEMONCRATS were offering a bill to REPEAL bank deregulation. Sounds like a double negative — but the CATAMITES in the market today took that fucking news and bet their grandmother’s estate on it and ramped it into my fucking face — causing me great pain and anguish.

In a 100% long book, I closed down 1.53% for the session — all thanks to UVIX. In total, I lost about $40k in UVIX today, meaning that without it I’d be up maybe 4%. Who the fuck cares? I am not in this for a day, “this” being whatever mission in the market I seem to be on.

Often times during times like this — CUNTS inside Stocklabs will level charges at me — proclaiming I be cold and “off” with my timing. Well, no man is perfect and I certainly have the bald head to prove it. NEVERTHELESS, I am a person with a vindictive soul — driven by both greed and an insatiable desire for revenge. I am exacting revenge at all times, on people who aren’t even aware of my existence. Without an enemy to fix my gaze upon, I am rudderless.

So keep betting against me. See where it gets you.

The market action was bullish. I regret to inform you of that. But the pin action in the banks was dreadful. We (the royal sense of course) are eagerly awaiting a renewed collapse — at which point I can validate my poor timing in UVIX as some sort of “plan” or scheme.

It seems the GREAT BIG TITTED bank rally is melting the fuck down.

FRC caught a credit downgrade and the entire mood had shifted. Plus, Russia shot down an American drone over the Black Sea. I suppose things aren’t always what they seem.

I ended up closing out the UVIX position — but taking on a great big dicked FAZ position — now 40% of assets. I did so because, not so deep down, I really hate the banks and it would be one of the many highlights of my life to participate in the end of western finance as we know it.

I know what you’re thinking and it’s stupid.

“But Fly, you enjoy all of the comforts of western finance — you and your wine cellar (garage) and cigars and all of that other shit you buy for comfort.”

All true. But I am willing to sacrifice all of my Burgundy wines for just 1 got damned legit meltdown. And not some bullshit meltdown that is met with faggots on TV bailing out eachother and beating off to SPX futures rising as their schemes work their magic.

No, I am only interested in irretrievable loss — NON REVERSIBLE — the sort of drawdown that makes people shit their pantaloons.

Look, I am not an evil person. I want people to be happy and explore all of their sexual identities too. But I want it to end more and the visceral feeeeeeeling of cataclysm is quite the thing. NEVERTHELESS, I will once again do the responsible thing and follow the money, like all money rats do and go along for the ride once they win again and then pretend to love it all as we hit 52 weeks highs amidst pomp and glory and Pax Americana.

Unfortunately, I am DOWN 29bps today, even though I have a full long book. Let me explain the sequence of events that led me here.

It all has to do with ANTIFA FLY and me sleeping in. Suffice to say, he missed a plane — I had to run around at 4am to get him on a new one — I fell asleep without an alarm — and BAM next thing you know the market is ripping higher and I have 15% of my book in a UVIX hedge that is down 19%.

These things happen and I sure all of you will forgive ANTIFA Fly in time.

What’s important to know is I am here now. My health is most excellent and my mood very good.

As I write my fortunes increase, now down just 9bps. Hell, if I do one or two brilliant trades today, maybe I too will escape with more money today than yesterday.

Ladies and gentlemen — it appears the greatest banking crisis of our lifetimes has ended. The regionals have soared. The govt wins again. The CPI came in good — just like Joe Biden said it would last week. And now, all we have to worry about are deposits at banks that lose money every time the US 10yr increases in yield — which by the way is +11bps today. But that’s not important.

On the issue of UVIX — had it not been for my inadvertent “sleeping in” — I would have sold it at the open. Anyone who knows me knows I’d do it. I swear on a stack of bibles. But since I didn’t and the damage has been done, I might just buy more to average down. OR, maybe I’ll just sell it and be done with it.

Look at me — doing shit you only dream of doing.

You want to know what happens next? I will tell you.

The entire state of California will DETACH from the continent and run into N. Korea — where it will be RAPED and nuked in short order. All of the VCs who’ve been SCHEMING via SIVB will need to find a new scam bank. For decades SIVB had facilitated programs that permitted founders to gain access to capital, in exchange for shares in their WANTONLY overpriced companies. The net result had been — plebs bought into IPOs at 30x sales and got drummed to death down 75% before the stock caught its legs. Basically, the entire VC community is a criminal organization and SIVB was their bank.

Now that the mob boss is dead, the new boss will demand their $75b VC portfolio be MARKED THE FUCK DOWN.

Are you listening to me you fucking faggots?

Furthermore, it is my belief the market cannot and will not enter tomorrow without a massive cap raise or some sort of bailout. Something will happen tonight, OR the market nose dives the fuck lower in a panic tomorrow.

I had 40% of my assets in FAZ 20 mins to the close — but I decided to close it out because betting against America bailing out their banks is a suckers bet. My only hedge now is 15% UVIX — which should stem most of any losses that come as a result of some GOOD NEWS at the banks tonight.

In short, we have a real crisis now and I am 100% sure there are many shoes to drop. This is the 1st inning of the gambit. However, as a trader, I like to dance between the rain drops and I’d much prefer to short into strength rather than shorting into 55% heart attack drops in the regionals.

For those curious, all of my trade and real time ideas are accessible inside Stocklabs.

The regional banking index was down 16% earlier this morning and is now off by “just 11%.” At the open of trade, I blew out of my UVIX and SQQQ positions, alongside my longs, for a net daily PNL of +1.81%

AMERICA WILL NEED TO BACKSTOP THEM ALL pic.twitter.com/ZZ5zEEXZ56

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 13, 2023

Oh nothing, just interbank liquidity totally frozen pic.twitter.com/YsVcRsmMjM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 13, 2023

If you were to tell me the banking system would collapse at the same time tech stocks ran higher — I’d say you’re fucking crazy. But that’s exactly what we’re seeing today.

The good news — yields are crashing lower.

WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE CRASHING LOWER NOW — but we aren’t. And it’s not just regionals getting hit.

SCHW -12%
USB -9%
C -5%
AIG -4.5%
CS -5.3%

It’s also worth noting we are seeing a tremendous run in gold, silver and cryptos. It has always been my belief that BTC-ETH-GLD-SLV would do very well under a bank panic or dollar panic scenario and that is exactly what we are seeing today — with BTC and ETH +5-8% and gold +2.2% and silver +6%.

To be continued.

All things being equal, what incentive do people have to remain at their regional bank? If the FDIC is gonna cover it all, might as well play it safe and transfer to JPM — no?

It appears an olde fashioned fucking bank run is underway and there is nothing the Federal Government can do to stop it.

We went from +3% in the Russell to down 0.5%. But more extremely, we are seeing a sundry of weak regional CRASH THRU THE FUCKING FLOORBOARDS. On top of that, banks are generally weak and the contagion seems to be spreading IN SPITE OF Biden’s great big fucking bailout plan.

BEHOLD THE PAGEANTRY.

Aside from that, SBNY traded at $70 on Friday is NOW ZERO today. Let me repeat that so you can fucking grasp it — SBNY IS A ZERO.

We have crisis underway and the VIX is responding in kind, sharply higher. It appears the new FDIC scheme to back all deposits will soon be put to the test as HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS MORE in deposits are called into question thanks to the collapse of FRC, PACW, ZION, WAL, and CMA. Let’s also not forget SCHW is barreling lower too. They have $7.3 TRILLION in assets.

The one silver lining in all this is bonds are SOARING. Ergo, the issue the banks have with losses are mitigated somewhere with the 10yr -22bps and losses well into -30bps all the way down the yield curve.

WTI is sharply lower -4.7% and Europe is down 2.5%.

On a somewhat positive note, President Xi is expected to meet with Putin next week and then later on Zelensky. Are we going to see a Chinese brokered peace agreement?

Sorry for the late post. But we all knew this was coming.

Fed: “…to support American businesses and households, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy.”

The Fed is starting out with a $25b fund to let banks exchange their underwater bonds for cash. Do not be fooled by the low number. They will scale it to a GORILLION dollars if they need to.

NASDAQ FUTS are +165. VCs will be bailed out. BIG TECH will have their way with your budget. There is no surprise here.

But what may complicate things is the inflation issue in conjunction with FOMC’s job to fight it — but at the same time attempting to stop bonds from dropping via rate hikes.

All eyes on the bond market. If we begin to see yields rising — markets might revoke this entire rally and begin to PRESS the faces of the Fed into the hot griddle of vengeance.

One issue is to monitor is the CASH SORTING issues at Schwab.