OFF TO RICHMOND

I’m about to get the hell out of here and sojourn up to Richmond, at which point I’ll delimber and prepare for a battle, tomorrow, at Battlefield Waterpark. Perhaps I’ll visit Jamestown or Williamsburg and pretend. It’s always fun doing that.

The market isn’t particularly interesting anyway, offering non explosive moves, plodding lower lazily. Early going we have a small rally — but I won’t be fooled into it. I have 5% TZA, 7% BTC positions and the rest cash, about flat for the morning. I don’t feeeeeel like I’ll miss much and really do like cavorting around Richmond. If you see a man limping due to an ACL tear, just know that I don’t want to talk to you and may or may not be fully armed. I will not, however, be taking my weapon to the waterpark, as I intend to float lazily in the lazy river without fear of being attacked.

While I’m away, remember the market is trying to trick you. Try to avoid being fooled.

The IWM is down 5% for August and the bears are really feeling themselves now, asserting their opinions in an oppressive way unto the poor bulls. You see the blood streaming almost everywhere and you can sense this is a moment that will either demoralize the bears for the balance of 2023 or perhaps turn the tide against the bulls and bury them where they stand.

Markets pulled back 1-1.2% today. This is a garden varietal pullback — but one which has been persistent for all of August. I managed to limit my losses to 45bps, suffering greater losses in longer term accounts. I closed hedged and in larger capped stocks — afraid to take on too much risk because of the 9%+ hole I dug for myself in the month.

Tomorrow I depart for Richmond and then the following day towards BUSCH FUCKING GARDENS to not enjoy my time and to not like any of the rides there. I view rides as a god damned stupid waste of time; but do not tell Mrs. Fly that because she loves them and thinks they’re ‘super awesome and amazing.’

BOTTOM LINE: Fear tactics aside, this market is being directed entirely by the treasury yields. Should they come in tomorrow — then stocks will rally and vice versa. There is a palpable fear that inflation is going to be renewed and that money will become even tighter — laying waste to anyone without millions in cash ready to spend.

We often trade in stocks we’d never want to own long term — because “one more trade” or “just a little bit more.” And then they blow the fuck out and we get caught inside of them — on par with being in a piece of shit car just before it combusts.

Whilst the bellwethers of this market remain intact, we are seeing SEVERE drawdowns amidst plenty of trader favorites — mostly due to terrible earnings.

Here are some 2 week returns that are designed to scare you.

HE (MAUI RELATED) -57%, NVEI -53%, UPST -51%, QS -47%, TGTX- 45%, SE -37%, SAGE -39%, LMND -38%, DOCS -36%, SYM -35%, OPEN -32%, PLUG -31%, IEP -31%, SDGR -30%.

And for some larger capped catastrophes.

PYPL -21%, FTNT -24%, SQ -27%, PLTR -22%, DDOG -24%, NIO -23%, RIVN -24%, RBLX -24%, PAYC -21%, U -22%.

Bro, it’s fucking over. Can’t you see the writing all over the wall — the blood of the bull painted on it? You cannot withstand this sort of barrage without ramifications coming due. I will tell you this now — people hate this market. They view it as artificial and want it to die. I will also tell you that the fundamentals of the economy are extremely tenuous and any substantial pullback in equities will in fact ruin the recovery.

There is a great price to pay for the sins of a nation of grabblers, mountebanks, and grifters. Whether it happens now or later, one thing is for certain — a reckoning is coming.

Before we get too excited — let’s measure ourselves and not become too erect around the specter of a true market calamity. Last night the state of Georgia, renowned for lynchings, decided to prosecute Trump for election interference. I do not care whatsoever about Trump “having his day in court” or the “merits of the charges.” This is a show trial and show trials aren’t about justice, but to exact revenge. People have done far worse and nothing came from it. Anyone with an IQ north of 85 understands the hypocrisy here. But this isn’t why I’m interested in the state of Georgia. Last night the former general counsel of the FBI said, due to the laws of Georgia, that Trump may be held WITHOUT BAIL. They will arrest him and dress him in an orange jumpsuit and toss him into prison and then tell you Trump is out of the race for President — and there is nothing you can do about it.

FORMER GENERAL COUNCIL FOR THE FBI, ANDREW WEISSMANN, SAYS TRUMP MAY HE HELD WITHOUT BAIL IN GEORGIA CASE: IT’S OVER
pic.twitter.com/ObPNFZpHC7

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 15, 2023

How about that?

All of these events lead any onlooker to believe this is a fucking ticking time bomb that poses a risk to equanimity in the nation. Not that it really matters, in regards to the markets. When the BLM fools were monkeying around all we saw was fires and bloodshed and anarchy — yet markets enjoyed it. I suppose if we had an uprising in the country, on par with the anger brought out by the fucking COVID-19 policies, markets would ignore it and go up anyway.

Early this morning I fled most of my stocks and took a TZA hedge and because of this — I am only down 34bps. Even so, I am not pleased with losing a little bit of money. I am trying to figure out which way we move next — up or down. The NASDAQ -100 isn’t much and oil down 2% after the big run up it had might be a head fake. We do have bond yields up again and that portends a much more severe economic imposition than, let’s say, an armed conflict between the state of Florida and Georgian state troopers attempting to arrest Trump at his golf resort.

These are the slow summer days of trendless chop — like watching thick molasses spill off a dusty picnic table in the yard. There is nothing going on — not even a collapse. Ergo, and this goes without saying, I have henceforth caved in and allocated 75% to the long side — no hedges.

I have no right doing this — already down 8.8% for August — but I did so nonetheless. Who can stop me?

In my head, I can sneak out of these positions for a quick gain and then swing back around with a full chest and bury the market with my shorts. My imagination runs wild with thoughts like this. Some people dream about winning the lottery to buy stuff — become degenerate swindlers and homosexuals. In spite of the fact that I do not play the lotto — as it is the sandbox for morons — but if I did I’d take all of the winnings to conduct the most hostile takeovers known to mankind.

I’d takeover — fire everyone, then totally ruin the business for sport. I’d do this over and over until I’ve had my fun. Don’t judge me — these are simply idle dreams of a person in a boring tape and in a slump.

Later on this week, Mrs. Fly thought it’d be nice to drive over to a water park — for “the kids.” I fully expect to completely tear my ACL there if under the advice of my wife, which is why I’ll be floating about in the lazy river all afternoon. It’s a stupid thing and all, water parks, bathing in filth and cavorting with the plebs. Alas a parent must make sacrifices for their children and if I didn’t place myself in discomfort for their benefit of joy — what’s the god damned point of having kids. Even so, I do not consider myself to be a great parent — judging by their woke dispositions. However, I still have hope — just like winning the lottery without playing the lotto.

Take a look here, as I drew a line on a chart of the IWM to confirm my bias. You might not like the market today — but according to my line — this is the exact trough of stocks.

IWM Chrystal balls

Pardon me for interjecting — but this is what peak technical analysis looks like. I am quite literally predicting the future based off a straight line made with a ruler. Should this line not hold, well then, we would’ve “broken support” and then we’d have to draw another line in order to find a “next level of support.” In theory, I can keep doing this forever until proven right, at which point I could then remind everyone about how right I was and to entrust in my expertise, in regards to predicting the future.

It would BEHOOVE anyone to actually look at valuations or read 10-ks — because the charts know all. As a point in fact, the sum total of human intelligence as we know it is reflected in the YTD performance of the SPY. To say otherwise would be to defy all logic and reason.

I will tell you, during periods when markets go down and everyone is in the dumps — those are “buying opportunities” — at times the very best “once in a life time chances” to get in at low prices. We all know the Fed has our backs and BIDENOMICS will produce records amount of jobs and wealth,a plethora if you will. We also are grateful to our corporate overlords for producing such a fine society of money producing gambits.

Into the final hour of trade, I expect the aforementioned trendline to hold, especially since there’s “so much money sitting on the sidelines.” If we do not hold, well then, it’s possible the trend would-be broken and then we’d have to create a new line of support.

The big news today is CLF bidding for X, in spite of X telling them to fuck off. I mean, really, who the fuck does CLF think they are bidding for United States Steel? Nevertheless, BOTH stocks are up, which is rare. I’m betting another bidder steps into the fray, perhaps NUE.

I’m down 27bps in very light trading, attempting to not blow myself out for the session.

We tanked early and have gone straight up since the open — but it’s still dreck. The market breadth is at 43% and every sector is down. Nevertheless, people want to believe and they’ll chase this fucker right into a mushroom cloud.

The NASDAQ is up early 90. Weakness is more prevalent in the smaller caps. The market is trading with a close correlation to treasury yields. If the market is going to do anything constructive — we need those fucking treasury yields to come back to below 4% on the 10yr, otherwise we’re all gonna keep seeing phantoms behind every bend.

I’m going to keep cash between 40-60% cash until I get my act together, no matter how convincing my inner conscious is in trying to convince me that all is well and my trading rhythm is back.

You can search far and wide for a looming economic disaster in the US and you’d be hard pressed to find a potential flash point. For a while, earlier in the year, we were entreated to a wonderful regional banking collapse — fueled by ‘cash sorting’ — which is a modern bank run by motivated customers to place their dollars where they can receive the highest risk free rate of return. People left Schwab in droves in favor of T-Bills. This, potentially, is still a major concern and I have hopes that this black flower can blossom this fall and collapse the system.

But that aside, inflation is abating. Unemployment is low. Housing starts are in the tank — but this isn’t causing a housing collapse — indicated by the very low delinquency rates. Consumer confidence is milquetoast, in the 70s, on par with an indifferent Pax Americana. National and private debt are fucking soaring to RECOURD HIGHS — but no one seems to care. No one cares because of the boy who cried wolf analogy. People have heard these tales before, about how this debt was going to blow up the banking sector — but alas we are still here sending Ukraine $24b per month.

So what can change this scenario?

The answer is simple: kill the stock market.

Everything about this house of cards is predicated on confidence. This confidence, like in all ponzis, is reliant upon status quo and the positive wealth status of those participating in the scheme. Bernie Maddoff (RIP) would never have gotten caught if not for the wonderful collapse of 2008.

Over the past 2 weeks, aka a fortnight for you British homosexuals, stocks have started to reel. Names like NVDA, ABNB, SHOP, PYPL, PANW, VALE, and 988 others are down more than 10% aka “a correction”.

Other names have underwent a much more severe pullback.

GNRC -27%, SEDG -27%, ZI -25%, IEP -24%, SMCI -23%, FTNT -22%.

I know exactly what you’re thinking. “Who gives a fuck about those bench warmers?” Get those B-listers the fuck out of my face!”

When is the real collapse gonna happen?

Two week returns for America’s best:

AAPL -9%, MSFT -3%, GOOGL +0.14%, AMZN +4.7%, NVDA -11%, BRK +2.6%, META -3%, TSLA -5%, JPM -1%

Clearly if you’re super bearish and betting heavily for downside pin action — you are mentally addled. The fucking VIX is less than 15, oil is soaring, and the leadership stocks are yawning at this minor pullback.

HOWEVER, there is still hope for you ursine piece of shits. September literally looms and before you know it — Junior at the trading turret is told to fuck off — as the real money managers come back from their cocaine fueled sojourns. Those fuckers are going to sell shit the fuck down, as is customary in almost every September — which is the worst month for stocks historically.

Data by Stocklabs

Bottom line: we are weakening, but the economic backdrop is stable. Let’s hope that the stock market can crack lower, which will then create a cascading effect that will rip through the economy and cause a terminal decline. If not, we can always buy stocks and make money off the scam.

I closed the week +0.5% for the session, with austere trading imposed upon myself due to losses of 8.5% for August. Very rarely do I succumb to the pangs and the horrors of the reader class — as I am accustomed to, and conditioned by, success. Nevertheless, I remain a devout and steadfast believer that all things can be remedied if ample persistence is exacted in an intelligent manner.

Case in point: About a week ago I chanced upon the scale and found I was 10lbs too heavy, which greatly chagrined me to the point of anger. In the 12 days since I found out I was a fat piece of shit — I shed 9 lbs. Now a lesser man would cease and celebrate over a large piece of cake — but not me. I will continue to impose this diet upon myself — roughly a 900 caloric daily deficit — in order to prove a point. Nothing can stop me, not even the desire for sustenance. You’ve never met a person more strong-willed about certain things than me. Fuck around, I’ll drop my god damned weight to 00.00.

On the topic of the TORN ACL — it has improved somewhat. I am 4 weeks into the injury and can walk up and down the stairs now — but with a bit of discomfort and pain. Pain doesn’t bother me — but immobility does. I will soon up my exercise regimen to increase flexibility and expect a full recovery inside 3 months.

The other issue I wanted to touch upon was Twitter/X and payment to creators. You might not notice it yet — but Elon has in fact pulled off a master stroke in making X more advertiser friendly. Before paying “creators”, people were angsty — shitposting about things they hated — behaved poorly. Soon, you will find those people behaving — because X will permit advertisers to choose where they want their brands advertised. In other words, Elon understands how to control the herd, like anyone else, via money.

You can talk shit if you want — but if you want to get paid — you’ll need to chill out on the fucking F-bombs.

In regards to the market — I lost the right to offer advice until I get my mojo back. I closed with roughly 50% cash, 7% BTC, some stocks, and a 10% holding in SQQQ as a hedge. This is a purposely low beta designed portfolio that will not rattle any cages and provide me with the time necessary to get better in sync with money flow in an effort to, inexorably, win again.

Take a break from liking BIDENOMICS stats issued by the White House and peer, gaze even, into the turmoil brewing softly in markets. We are being dispatched without malice or chaos — but instead with mechanical and technical precision.

LOOK AT IT.

A sea of crimson eagerly awaits you. Send all of your fresh money into the Bakhmut of markets — the one pretending to be winning when in fact it’s losing daily.

All of the finest sectors have not only pulled back over the two weeks of August — but they have collapsed. Do you have any questions?

How bad is it for other areas of the market? I have answers.

Crypto miners -15%
Lithium stocks -10%
SAAS -9%
Fucking MEME stocks -15%

On the bright side, TRANHEISER Bush is +1.2%, $BUD.