All of Trump’s Great, Big, Beautiful Gains Are Now at Risk

Check this out. This recent move is so extreme, it envelopes more than a year of gains. The people who bought on election night 2016 are next.

I think it’s appropriate to book gain here for short sellers, but in no way do I think you should go long stocks. After all, tomorrow is Friday and MARKETS DO NOT BOTTOM ON FRIDAYS.

It’s very important that you realize what is driving stocks: oil.

As oil sinks, presently down 5%, the implications are for a weaker China. Those implications have rippled effects around the world for growth prospects. This adversely affects high yield, which then scares the shit out of stocks. Because, because, people think we’re heading into another credit crisis.

The only safe havens are XLU, TLT, and GLD. I just started a position in XLU today and re-bought NUGT.

YOU CANNOT BUY STOCKS WITH OIL DOWN 5%. Period, end of story. If you do so, I will personally visit your place of business and slap the shit out you.

The selling pressure will accelerate as we approach election night gains.

Top picks: NUGT, EGO, EXK, XLU, and DRV.

I sold DRIP, a triple sized position, for a 21% gain — +38% from original basis.

I sold FAZ for an 8.5% gain — doubled sized.

And I sold TLT for a ~3% gain — double sized.

I bought NUGT — because gold is great.

I am now 45% cash — still long DRV, doubled sized position, and a sundry of other interesting stocks.

Take an Exodus trial and I’ll tell you about it — FUCKERS.

UPDATE: I sold ZEN, PAYC for 10% losses. I sold EVBG for a 2% loss.

Good morning lads.

Here is this morning’s bad news.

US and allies will soon condemn China for stealing IP. Rod Rosenstein will be naming names soon.

Legendary hedge fund manager David Tepper said the Fed told Wall Street “The Fed put is dead” and suggested moving to cash.

And perma-bull Bob Doll from Nuveen said the Fed went from “huge friend” to a “bit of an enemy.”

Lastly, oil is down 3.1%.

I know you’re looking at the market, thinking “this isn’t so bad.”

Let’s me stop you right there.

Oil is down 3.1%.

More importantly, HYG is sharply lower again.

DO NOT CATCH THE KNIFE. You’re gonna get cut.

How many times do I have to demonstrate a keen ability to call extreme market conditions before you shut the fuck up and heed? I remember when I told you to board the ark in 2016, amidst market tumult, the sort of tape that made people want to kill themselves, presiding over the LARGEST DIRECTIONAL MOVE IN US TREASURY HISTORY — and all I got from you — the clowned out peanut gallery unsophisticate, lemons — only after, by the grace of God, the market rallied post Trump election win.

For the entirety of 2016, you bozos were blowing up in spectacular fashion, up until November. Then you were awesome again.

If I link back to the blogs of 2012 and 2008-2009, I can show you depravity on a wanton scale — men in the comments section promising to suck themselves off based upon inane market rally calls. I’ve been doing this a long, long time and have always, and I mean always, come out on top. Quite literally, no one that I know here or in real life has ever been able to make market calls like me. This is not an exercise of self-aggrandizement, but instead a grape shot across your bow. The disgusting and filthy comments you make injure me, both physically and intellectually. I recoil out of disgust when I read them and would prefer you cease offering financial advice immediately.

There is only one Le Fly, the voice in finance that this generation deserves. You’re merely a reader, a very low and depraved lifeform, moving to and fro without purpose — built for ribald failure and gauche theatricalities. Do yourselves a favour and listen moar, talk less.

GOOD NITE.

This is the worst December since 1931. Xmas has literally been canceled.

These bastardized ETFs whose assets are wholly illiquid are getting flayed. Do you see this nonsense below? This is an illusion, a trick that makes holders think their investment is liquid. The leveraged loans or CLOs behind this nonsense has a 1 mo settlement, on average.

CLO activity has collapsed. Hence, banks are getting hammered.

Aside from a collapse in issuance, fund flows out of these products are at record levels.

How big is this market? YUGE. $1.1 trillion. See Zerohedge for more coverage.

Oil is getting ravaged on a daily basis, indicative of of a rapidly slowing China. It makes sense, trade war and all. But the ramifications are far reaching, especially since we’re a god damned net producer of oil now.

Observe US petrol-banks, like CFR, LBC, and TCBI, with loan portfolios rich with oil getting ax murdered.

Because of the debt associated with oil and the size of the exposure ( ~$2 trillion), the high yield market is in blow up mode.

We’re in a negative feedback loop, both lovely and resplendent with vampires. In order to get out of it, we need a nice news event and strong reversal on aggressive volume. Perhaps the government shutdown on the 21st of December will provide us with such an inverse occasion.

Good night.

The Fed is wrong and they know it. They’re trying to wreck the economy in order to loosen the employment pool. In other words, they want people to lose their jobs in order to reduce wage inflation.

This stress is now being priced in, in the high yield and leveraged loan markets.

JNK hit hard today.

With this sort of action in the bond market, the moves in stocks are secondary. This is the tail that wags the dog.

I doubled up in my FAZ and DRV positions. I have a triple sized position in DRIP, long a fuckload of TLT, and holding into tomorrow. I sold TWTR for a 9.5% loss and am trying my best to keep the other longs. If they go down by 10%, they’re out.

If you need to be scolded in person, see about The Capstone.

REITs are now implying a slowing economic environment and VACANCIES.

I doubled up on my DRV position, foot stepping hard on the pedal, heading towards the sun.

It’s delusional for the Fed to keep hiking as high yield markets get smashed. They have already overshot. Hence, I doubled up on my FAZ position. Anything can happen on Fed day. We can reverse higher and this might turn out to be a mistake. However, I am VERY comfy being short banks and oil here, especially with high yield getting killed.

Look at me. I am captain now.

This is disaster. Trump is on suicide watch, as the Fed implies TWO MOAR hikes for 2019. They did not bend or bust. Instead, they stayed the course and now the market is paying the price.

What’s important to watch here?

TLT – HYG spread. TLT (my largest holding) continues to go higher, while high yield lower.

Leveraged loans continues to get fucked. Track SRLN, down another 0.9%. All of this is directly correlated to oil. Hence, DRIP game is strong.

My top positions are: TLT, GE and DRIP. Other positions of note: ZEN, EVBG, DRV, FAZ, PAYC and TWTR.

My goal is to profit, but mostly to remain in the game and relevant. I will never get destroyed in a bear market, because I positioned for all eventualities.

We’ve reversed a 300 gain and this is cataclysm. However, the initial move is often a fake one. Let’s judge the tape at 3:30.

I sold $FB this morning at $140 for a 3.3% loss, which is fortunate because now it’s sharply lower. If you do not believe me, feel free to fuck yourselves. Also, I have proof, as evidenced by a thousand fuckers inside Exodus who saw my sell.

So, FUCK OFF.

In other news, I positioned sideways into MOAR DRIP. I sort of like the damned thing and do not care for higher oil prices, not one bit. Also, it’s important to note, high yield is lower again and leveraged loans, inexorably, fucked.

Observe.

Want some SRLN, rare? Bear in mind, this is a basket of leveraged loans — down 0.78% today.

The short thesis for oil is pressure from high yield. Seeing oil stocks up today with bonds lower tells me dumb money is poorly positioned and I am here to take advantage. Now if the Fed provides tinder for a fiery rally and oil melts up, my thesis would be shattered against the rocks and I’d be forced to close out this position.

WISH ME LUCK!