Fly Buys: $NUGT, $DRIP, $SBOT, $CYCC, SELB, $PULM, $TENX

Still interested in gambling, I bought CYCC and SBOT. I know…crazy.

Also, with wage growth at 3.4%, I like gold again. I bought NUGT and to bet against oil — DRIP.

Update: I bought SELB, TENX and PULM too.

We were supposed to add 180k jobs in February, but only managed 20k.

Wage growth, however, was strong — bullish for inflation and gold.

Dean Baker weighs in.

#jobsreport modest acceleration in wage growth to 3.4 percent over last year, 3.3 percent taking average of last 3 months with prior 3 months

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport drop in involuntary part-time lowered U-6 unemployment to 7.3 percent, new low for recovery

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport big fall in aggregate hours, we're below December level — more cause for concern than February jobs numbers, but bad weather could have been a factor

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport Involuntary part-time employment plunges more than reversing January rise. Now below pre-recession lows as share of employment

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

What does this mean?

It means the slowdown heading into 2019, with an absolute plunge in semiconductor orders, as evidenced by the recent beige book report, affected employment in February. SHOCKER.

Recession? Hard to tell. The Atlanta Fed is estimating just 0.3% GDP growth for Q1. Is this being priced into stocks?

It all depends on how the second half of 2019 will look. If things look to be getting better, the market will reflect that optimism and ignore the present weakness. But if we get some negative news, namely from Apple, then markets need to correct.

For now, trade the tape, not the news.

Booked pre-market gains on both, +42% and +45%, respectively. SEEL had been at $7.25 earlier this morning and faded hard, so I booked it at $5.25.

I have a few other small biotechs, looking at others for opening tick, generally pleased with market dispirit and looking forward to increasing my returns via TVIX, SOXS and TZA.

Imagine yourself to be a slab of fat meat. Now image there is a giant fucking meat grinder spinning away with sparks shooting out of its sides — creaking and bowing, eagerly waiting to shred something. Now imagine tomorrow’s jobs report as being the boot that kicks your sloppy ass into said grinder — finished for good.

We’ve come a long way since Xmas and the bulls have gotten very fat. They’re obnoxious and deserving of the meat grinder — because they’re not good people and they don’t know what’s coming.

A great storm is just around the bend. It will rip everything from root to crown, leaving a heaving mess of ruins — tumult.

I’d like to see you get through it; but first, UPGRADE TO ANNUAL.

Everything I’ve done and gone through has led me to this point, the ephemeral moment when everything counts — nothing taken for granted — zero betrayals and only dignity and honor to fall back upon when things get hard.

Top picks are fluid and momentary. Join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus to find out.

The dollar is soaring against the Euro.

Yen is higher.

Bonds are higher, as yields tank.

Listen to me now — the only thing preventing this market from totally dislocating is oil. If oil was lower by 3% or more today, we’d fully break, cleanly and brightly, down by 500+

Meanwhile, I continue buying POS biotechs. I just bought SEEL. Why? No idea. We’re playing all of these stocks in Exodus today.

Presently, I am most confident in my TVIX, SOXS, and TZA — but I’m also hoping for some negative correlation against the market with SEEL, TNXP, and SNSS.

Try to fucking stop me.

Take a look at shares of BPTH, higher by 400%+ today.

Within the sector, there are about a dozen stocks running double digits, such as ALT, SEEL, and ARQL. When stocks run like this, I like to do keyword searches to find companies in the same field, for sympathy runs.

Based on this simple ideology, I bought SNSS. Why the fuck not?

Markets are still weak, but moderating. They think they’re going to make it.

Tim Apple is in trouble here. The fate of western finance might depend on his words. I suggest he choose them very carefully.

We’re in March now — ’tis the time for earnings warnings. Will Tim warn or say everything is great? Time will tell.

Here we are now, barely off recent highs. Sure, trannies have rolled over and the VIX is beginning to spike. But the FANG paradigm is still intact.

This is how it started heading lower last time, quietly.

It should be noted, small caps are doing well today and SAAS stocks are +0.58%, so there is an undercurrent of strength in the tape. But I think it’s fair to say we overshot to the upside and now we’re digesting some of the more zealous types.

In other words, the shorts you have on now are trades and not idealogical positions that will preside over an end of days scenario. It’s fun to become hyperbolic and see bulls twisting in the wind — because they’re simple people who respond to base instincts. But don’t let a good trade turn sour, just because you have a feeling about something that has yet to materialize.

What I want to see to confirm this downturn is weakness in WTI and HYG.

Dump it.

Dump it again.

I spent the morning cleaning out my trading account of the refuse, selling RENN for an 11% loss, GPRE for -3%, and NTLA -9%. Given my recent winners, this is nothing but a mere paint chip on the side of my gigantic warship.

It’s evident to anyone paying close attention, we have Dow Theory distribution taking place in the trannies, an economically sensitive sector that bodes miserably for ze bulls.

Observe.

Over the past 2 weeks, truckers are off by 10%. Bet most of you didn’t know that.

Today’s exuberance is in the biotech sector, so I faded it and bought LABD.

For now, the trend is, inexorably, lower. A behavioral shift has been noted and logged.

The only true way to partake in the downside is to strip account barren and to the bones of the longs and overweight shorts. Should stocks belly flop off the bottom and bounce, this stratagem will ruefully scorn you. However, in the event this rollover is legit, you will forever be in my debt. Watch the tape carefully and be sure not to overstay your welcome.

This is getting sort of ridiculous. I think it’s evident to anyone watching Europe that they’re in a permanent state of QE. I recall writing about POMO and how America would be in QE for life, but we ended up half-assing our way out of QE. Look at Europe, just today announcing TLTRO-III — lasting thru 2021.

TLTRO-III is the third European bank lending program, offering bailout styled cheap rates to bedraggled banks living on their continent.

Rates go unchanged at 0% for marginal lending and -0.4% for deposits. European citizens are in a constant state of beatdown by their banks.

Part of this, of course, has to do with Italy entering a recession towards the end of 2018. Had Europe opted to reset their banking system and let them fail — perhaps they’d be healthier now. Alas, living in a world with zombified banks requires constant vigilance.

ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday that there has been a “sizable moderation in economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”

“While there are signs that some of the idiosyncratic domestic factors dampening growth are starting to fade, the weakening in economic data points to a sizable moderation in the pace of the economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”

The only great market move, based on this news, is the euro sharply lower vs the dollar — now off by 0.5%