Look at me. I am captain now.
This is disaster. Trump is on suicide watch, as the Fed implies TWO MOAR hikes for 2019. They did not bend or bust. Instead, they stayed the course and now the market is paying the price.
What’s important to watch here?
TLT – HYG spread. TLT (my largest holding) continues to go higher, while high yield lower.
Leveraged loans continues to get fucked. Track SRLN, down another 0.9%. All of this is directly correlated to oil. Hence, DRIP game is strong.
My top positions are: TLT, GE and DRIP. Other positions of note: ZEN, EVBG, DRV, FAZ, PAYC and TWTR.
My goal is to profit, but mostly to remain in the game and relevant. I will never get destroyed in a bear market, because I positioned for all eventualities.
We’ve reversed a 300 gain and this is cataclysm. However, the initial move is often a fake one. Let’s judge the tape at 3:30.
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Just watch. Jerome done good here.
So you had predicted new ATHs in April. Presumably, that is an index (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, etc) call.
As you are aware, and index is no more than the sum of it’s parts. Larger parts (ie, market cap) count for more. So If AAPL drops from $1T to $800B (-20%), then a samller stock such as midget ExxonMobile (XOM) would have to increase from $300B to $500B to make up for it : +67%. So therefore, you have to either beleive that tehc giants will reach ATH by April or other large caps will go well above their old ATHs. So which is it?
Now that is more a question for thought, as no amtter how many times I’ve asked that over the last 4 months, i’ve received zero answers. I suspect it is becuase bulls udnerstand that tehc giants are a long way (time wise) from ATHs, and bulls can’t name other large stocks with growth rates that could lead to 40% stock icnreases needed to compensate.
So the next question to ask: if we *don’t* reach ATHS, what is the liekly result: churning with no gain, or further declines from concern about high yield, Brexit, etc. No win the apst we’ve gotten through other crises with no real resolution (remeber Greece?), but the market rallied anyway, so there is always that. Still, it is hard to see that the bulls will be able to do any celebrating before summer.
Exactly. I was shorting the fuck out of stocks when the market rallied on the news. The only thing that MAY have helped spark a short-term rally was if they didn’t raise at all. But instead they raised and called for 2 more (which the the market will now price in)? DISASTER.
It’s like a Mexican standoff Mr. Fly. Everyone is watching everyone else to see who moves first.
High growth won’t lead the rally.