Fly Buy: $FUV, $WKHS

You fucking faggots. I stepped in this morning, based off the missives of a certain TGIR — who found us all SOLO in the $1s yesterday inside Exodus — now in the $5s.

There’s a craze surrounding electric cars now. I’m not interested in holding long term. These are just trades.

I bought FUV in the low $4s, WKHS below $1.10 and I will now wait for my fortune to increase.

As an aside, WATT is blasting off too.

Listen to me very closely. When markets jimmied higher the other day, based on the faux news of Trump avoiding a shut down, a small little company named AMKR posted results. I discussed this in detail in Capstone and I’ll share it with you now.

Amkor makes parts of the smartphone and auto industries, chips rather. They said, heading into 2019, the smartphone market, or at least their exposure to it, undertook a disastrous 30% drop in sales. This of course would mirror what the retail sales out today just communicated. Additionally, they said one of their auto clients was undergoing an inventory correction — which should last until the second half. Initially, the stock fell 9%, but then quickly recovered and traded sharply higher based on the following comments.

I’m paraphrasing here, so bear with me.

They said their IOS clients (Apple) foresee Q2 as being better than Q1 and the second half even better than the first. In other words, the worst is behind us, apparently. Isn’t that what we all wanted to know — the state of things at Apple?

Could they be wrong? Maybe. Perhaps Apple will update us in March and illuminate a grim picture for us. Or, maybe they’ll confirm what AMKR already told us.

One thing is for certain — markets had already priced in a bad Q4 for 2018, which is why the market melted down. Today’s revelation is old news and not indicative of future results.

Retail sales fell 1.2 percent in December, marking their biggest monthly drop since September 2009, according to The Commerce Department. The department also said retail sales fell 0.9 percent in December when excluding gasoline station sales.

“This number was terrible,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, in a note. “The US consumer is holding the global economy on its shoulders. After seeing today’s data, we better hope it was a one month outlier and that the rebound in stocks in January and month to date will revive consumer spending.”

You might take note that I’ve been especially belligerent in my recent posts — truly cussing a lot and acting indecorous. This behavior, of course, is unbecoming of a gentleman and I’m prepared for the backlash, which is coming soon. But I’ve got to tell you, quite honestly, it doesn’t matter what you think. Your opinions are less than invalid. They run contrary to what truth is and are the 3x inverse XIV, triple lindy version, of authority.

Dollar-denominated exports for the month rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, according to Chinese customs data. China’s exports in January were expected to have contracted 3.2 percent from a year earlier, according to economists in a Reuters poll, compared with the previous month’s 4.4 percent decline.

January dollar-denominated imports, meanwhile, fell 1.5 percent on-year, which was far better than expectations of a 10 percent decline from a year earlier, according to the Reuters poll. Imports in December fell 7.6 percent from a year ago.

China’s overall trade surplus was $39.16 billion in January. That easily topped the $33.5 billion expected, according to the Reuters poll. That was still lower, though, than December’s trade surplus of $57.06 billion.

Well, well, well — look at that, LOOK AT IT — LOOK-AT-IT.

More gains coming. Get long some China plays.

I bought WATT and HABT, both sketchy companies with eye-raising business models. One produces tech that will permit you to WIRELESSLY charge your phone in a room. I imagine this technology to be very unhealthy for human skeletons and major organs — but we won’t know for sure until proper studies are made — 30 years hence.

The other purchase, HABT, is more traditional — a fever for shitty burgers and sloppy fries. Nice fucking candle today. Judging by previous moves, I’d say this fucking stocks, inevitably, trades up.

Over in Exodus, @TGIR fucking nailed this SOLO trade, and although I’m tempted to play it — I don’t want to soil his luck with my obvious downtrodden curse.

See you animals tomorrow.

I started off the day entreated to QLYS knifing lower by 14%. I booked that loss and then scurried about my day, to and fro. After I fro’d, I to’d some more.

Gold was REJECTED at 1320 and is now fishing lower. I envy those with the luxury of being a luddite, simply FANG banging and going about the course of their days, totally inept and without a stratagem.

Having said that, I am down in my trading account, up 35bps in my Quant account, and generally ribald in my opinions of all of you — caitiffs and malefactors — siphoning all that is good and intelligent from me without even a nod of the top hat. To think that I spend inordinate sums of my time blogging into the wind — an easterly wind that is both cold and venomous, is somewhat ridiculous and amazing. Twenty years ago, I had BIG ASS DREAMS (BAD) of being Gordon Gekko — kicking fuckers like Bud Fox out of my office for offering me dog shit stock ideas. I’d smoke cigars at the desk and take dielectic measurements of my blood pressure to save me a visit to the doctor, both efficient and cost effective. I’d have my head trader actively raping others in the open market and I’d commit to grave acts of hostile actions against any company that is vulnerable to my hegemony.

Instead of all that shit…here I am dicking away on the olde computer — trading amidst my enemies — having a grande olde fucking time.

What the fuck is Bill up to these days? He’s up to destroying the market and crushing every single faggot investment advisor, salty fuckers, who’ve been dragging him thru the mud the past decade: that’s what he’s up to, pal.

So what Bill has been dogged for the past decade — losing high key televised battles with the geriatric Icahn.

But now he’s back and even though +25% in a little more than a month might seem insane to some of you — like ‘how the fuck does a $10b fund move so much in a single month anyway?’ — SHUT THE FUCK UP — you needn’t concern yourselves with the games that big money fund managers play. Their sand box is their oyster and their oyster is their cocks.

Allegedly, Bill made most of his money in MDLZ, CMG and SBUX — but it doesn’t matter what he owns. The only thing that matters is +25% and your stupid fund is barely up and not domiciled in a beautiful self owned new building in Hell’s Kitchen.

Sure, Bill is probably still salty AF at his fellow hedge funders for the now infamous ill fated cycle drive to Montauk. But that shit is behind him now and he’s making power moves — pissing and shitting on the competition — making investment advisors with shit AUM feel like the pissants they truly are.

Now with Bill’s resurgence back into the winners circle, we should expect more media appearances, lectures, and wonderful high drama stakes to be announced — stocks to bet for and against — battles to be won. Gone are the days of getting balls roasted in Mexican protein shake companies or old lady department stores led by Apple leftovers.

This is 2019, a new era of gilded returns and decadent abundance.

Congratulations to William Albert Ackman on your success and I’m very sorry for having been forced by my ill tempered humor that caused me to make fun of you a few dozen times the past decade or so.

Earnings season, the quintessential fuckery of all investing fuckeries. The temptation to ride thru one of these calls — because God loves us specifically and because our genius demands reward, is always present and palpable.

Case in point, I sold PYX the just before earnings — because it was the right thing to do for me, at the time. I was in PYX for a trade, not earnings, and didn’t feel like gambling.

The result?

PYX beat and shot higher by 30% the next day.

Seeing this beat, I demurred my cautiousness and decided to hold another one of my holdings into earnings last night. That stock was QLYS.

I didn’t have an edge, or even an affinity for the stock. It was a trade, but because it was my stock, and my genius, I felt, well, if PYX could do it — why can’t QLYS?

The result?

QLYS is shooting lower by 16% in the pre-market.

FUCK.MY.LIFE.

I’ll be selling out at the loss this morning.

Futures are up more than 100. I’m keeping an eye on Bitcoin and cryptos here, believing they might be bottoming out and fixing to lick higher. On the issue of gold — this shit is coiling. Consider the fact the dollar has been strong AF, yet gold is vacillating near the highs.

This level, right here and right now, has been resistance for 6 mother-fucking years. Do you hear me you fucking faggots?

The bull case?

ACTUAL INFLATION.

Watch the TIPs for evidence of big money hedging against the specter of it. Consider wage growth now is strongest in a decade and we’re not coming off a trough, as was the case in 2009. We’re in a bull market, an extended one, yet wage growth is only now busting loose.

Following this train of thought, also considering demographic, millennial faggots will be fast approaching family age and they can’t afford shit in the city. So they’ll opt for some grass and large square footage.

What am I suggesting?

For the bull market in housing to extend to the suburbs next, helping shares of TOL, BZH, and material plays like EXP, MAS, and TREX. Why the fuck not?

Tell me why the homies can’t run too?

Listen to me as if I was screaming into your face.

You have no basis to be short here. Markets have all but told you it’s going higher, even after today’s big cocked move to the upside. As a point in fact, often times larger runs occur in esoteric names after massive melt ups. Today advertises to the normies that money is being made and they’ll follow in like lemmings tomorrow.

I told you earlier, big ass cash positions await on the sidelines. I’d like to highlight some of my ideas, but feel increasingly restricted due to my Capstone obligations. Nevertheless, I can readily advise you to be long and in stocks that correlate with the market.

It’s worth noting, FUCKTARDS are still on Twitter talking about topping out and those people will have their faces punched off soon, and strongly. It’s one thing to be a bear, a whole other thing to walk down your portfolio.

My largest position are still gold and it’s not participating today, which is fine. The melt up in stocks is causing defensive positions to be liquidated; but the bull case in gold has never been stronger, literally — when taking into account the record level of wage growth in the country now and the idea that inflation might, finally, be something to worry about.

Regrettably, I sold PYX yesterday, ahead of earnings — because I had no edge. The stock is up 30% today and sometimes that’s how it goes. That stock, in my opinion, will continue higher, at least until tomorrow, as momo traders try to catch a glimpse of greatness and sojourn into profit.

Anyone over the age of 35 remembers the market crashes of yesteryear — the malevolent crashes of a comical nature that ruined so many people and their households. Kids getting tossed out of their lambos — because they’ve been repossessed. Wives being told her Hermes collection needed to be sold on Ebay, in order to pay for the boat. Husbands being told the boat had to go in order to pay for the mortgage. The bank telling everyone to GTFO because the house was being foreclosed and they intended to sell it.

It was bad.

The recent downturn forced many people my age and older to cash up. Now, according to Bank of America, those same people are assed out.

source: CNBC

Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey, which gauges where global pros are positioning, showed the biggest net overweight position in cash since January 2009, just two months before the market bottomed and set up the longest bull run in Wall Street history.

Sentiment moving to extremes has been a reliable contrarian indicator for market historically. The January stock market rally coincided with a cash allocation of 4.8 percent, which is above the 4.5 percent threshold that Bank of America considers a bullish sign.

Markets are spinning higher and nothing can stop it. Oil is up. Junk bonds are up. Industrials are leading the way, optimistic about a China deal.

I have no warnings for you and only happy tidings. Go correlate with the market and make some money.