NUTS — Raised MOAR Cash, Took a Hedge

I’m not gonna get lured into a net short position just because the market is nuts. Even though I know and you know the era of the short fast approaches, I shall not give into the temptation of practicing witchcraft and Voodoo on equity longs here.

I sold JNUG, RENN, GSUM, CRSP and NXTDW and I earned a hedge in buying SQQQ — but I still have my oils and my entire long Quant portfolio, which is slated to be updated in a few days from now.

Markets have shattered the ceiling, higher by 350, and President Trump is very proud. A once rigged stock’d market is now entirely deserving, unrigged, and non-manipulated, and totally fair and just and it’s going higher because MUH profits and US dominance over cowering failed states littered and festooned with low IQs.

We want markets to pull in just a little, this way we can buy again and again to our heart’s content. But my appetite wanes here, as the indices get pulled higher by the short hairs. The essence of speculative fervor has become a carnivale clown and the fun removed through the elimination of the short.

Dare I say, “The Era of the Short” is coming, once again, bringing with it tumult and danger — a spectacular display of doom that will make XIV look like a picnic in the south of France on a calm balmy day — paired with raw seafood and champagne.

Meanwhile, Le Fly is busy orienting himself with establishing a beachhead in the investment advisory field — which keeps me busy during my downtime and recently during the work day. My new dog is behaving, no longer trying to eat my old one. She has a tendency to mimic what she sees. Just yesterday my old dog growled at her, showing teeth, from a perch and jumped down to go after the new one. Quickly, the new dog jumped up and situated herself in the exact same pose as my old dog and snarled down in the same manner and fashion as my old dog — which gave me a good laugh, maybe two.

I had this coming for a long time. The amount of sheer vile hatred that “The Fly” spreads on Twitter is something to behold. It is infectious and absurd. Someone had to stop him at some point along this very long and narrow corridor of dread and misery.

Lucky for the world, @Jack has come to the rescue — forcing Le fly to DELETE two hateful tweets and banning him from the platform for 12 hours. Granted, those tweets were meant in jest. But what is funny, after all? If you do not find my jokes tasteful, should you be forced to consume it? Of course not.

@Jack is right for throwing a 12 hour ban on some of my Twitter privileges. For too long, I’ve been acting like a god damn orangutan on Twitter, yelling and cursing, making fun of transgenders. This is a new world, with fresh beginnings. We shit on the constitution in this new paradigm and do not permit others to joke at the expense of others.

I hope “The Fly” heeds these warnings and improves as a human being — otherwise he will be cast out into the cold with all of the other retards who’ve been banned from Twitter before.

Thank you @Jack for standing up for what’s right.

I’M GONNA SCREAM FOR THIS ENTIRE POST. I’VE ALWAYS WANTED TO GO ON A LONG DIATRIBE, SCREAMING THE WHOLE WAY. OFTEN TIMES, AS HUMAN BEINGS, WE TEND TO FOLLOW A STRICT TRACK OF FORMALITY, ALWAYS MINDFUL OF THE OPINIONS OF OTHERS. I, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE A TENDENCY TO ESCHEW THESE FORLORN INSECURITIES AND HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO SAY WHATEVER IS ON MY MIND — IRRESPECTIVE OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES.

TO THAT END, I SOLD OFF MY CRSP POSITION WHICH WAS PURCHASED LAST WEEK — BECAUSE I AM UP 5 DOLLARS ON IT. I LIKE THE IDEA OF SELLING NOW BECAUSE I MADE 5 DOLLARS. I ALSO LIKE HOW THIS BLOG POST IS COMING ALONG. IT HAS THE LOOK OF AN OLD TELEGRAM. I ALWAYS WANTED TO WRITE MY OWN TELEGRAM. STOP. BUT I WAS BORN INTO AN EVIL ERA OF TRANSVESTITES AND AUTISTIC SCHOOL SHOOTERS. FULL STOP.

WITH THE PROCEEDS, THEY SHALL FOREVER REMAIN IN CASH, OR UNTIL I FIND SOMETHING TRULY AWESOME AND TRULY AMAZING. HARDCORE PORNOGRAPHIC STOP.

As the world moves against bonds, readying for the seminal moment when the 10yr hits 3%, sending markets into a frenzied panic; the pencil pushers at Morgan Stanley are running in the opposite direction. They’re bullish on bonds and have taken an opposing view to their arch nemesis at Goldman.

Dire warnings could be learned about from every crevice of the market — from Goldman to Gundlach to the old fucker Buffett; everyone hates bonds — because the Federal Reserve are filled with good liars.

Record levels of shorts in the treasury market make for an interesting trade — one that could kill many dead — if we should sashay into a risk off environ — whereby all of the equityFAG money gets funneled, ever so quickly, back into bonds. Yields would drop, shorts annihilated, Goldman would lose.

Morgan thinks it could happen.

“We think the bell has tolled for the best of the bear market in longer-duration bonds,” wrote the Morgan Stanley team, led by Matthew Hornbach, global head of interest-rates strategy. “We like the long end.”

The value for Morgan Stanley is buying bonds at the long end of the Treasury curve. Hornbach’s team advised maintaining an existing bet that the gap between two-year notes and 30-year Treasuries will narrow from its current level of about 92 basis points, according to the report on Saturday.

It appears an ark is to be built. Prepare to board if the weather forecast shifts to inclement.

This post too is cursed. Should you stumble upon this post by accident or by fortune and believe it to be benign, you’re in for some truly dreadful luck. I’ve paid a gypsy fortune teller to curse my blog posts that will afflict my readers with such a malady that they will rue the day the internet was invented. To prevent this curse from grabbing hold, you must comment and discuss the events of the day the forum below.

Early going, futures are higher by a solid 187. Everything about this market is aggressive and I hope you read all of your prospectuses this weekend — for great adventures and booming journeys lie ahead — just ahead over the horizon.

In the next post, I intend to break down and describe this fabled document, otherwise known as the prospectus, and how it could be used to short cut one’s way into Scrooge Mcduck styled riches. “The Fly” is in possession of all of the secrets and will disseminate them to you, slowly, over the course of time.

Here’s some other shit crossing the wires this morning.

Zebra Tech downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
Workday upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie
Sociedad Quimica y Minera downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Schlumberger upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
HP upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Halliburton downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Emerge Energy Services misses by $0.12, misses on revs
Sanchez Energy reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs

This is a cursed blog post, meaning that if you’re reading this now you must comment — else you will die of aids.

***DOW FUTS +73*** pic.twitter.com/dNipy8csPd

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 26, 2018

Discuss.

A few months ago some bullshit crypto dubbed ‘Tron’ was valued at more than $14 billion. The shit ran higher like an Irishman into a cabbage field and then got destroyed when Bitcoin got REKT. The present value of Tron is ~$2.6b.

Tonight the crypto man himself, John McAfee, warned that his very own website was infected by a sordid type of malware that was raping people for their Tron keys.

WARNING: The Tron airdrop ad placed all over my site yesterday is stealing private keys when you visit the site. Even though Twitter verified the poster's account as being the real Justin Sun, it was a fake account. If you visited the site your private keys were likely stolen. pic.twitter.com/wH2zHwrFNI

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) February 25, 2018

Bear in mind, this is a man who has sworn to eat his own dick on national television should Bitcoin not trade to $500,000 inside of 3 years time.

if not, I will eat my dick on national television.

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) July 17, 2017

But then in November of 2017, at the highs for cryptos, McAfee upped the ante and raised his price target on Bitcoin to $1 million by 2020, once again promising to eat his own penis should it not happen.

When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bircoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong. pic.twitter.com/WVx3E71nyD

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) November 29, 2017

Since then, the price has tumbled by half, he lost his job at MGTI, and his dick is certainly on the chopping block for a most heinous and expeditious rare feast.

These people can’t stop lying. One of Goldman’s economists, Daan Struyven, issued a report declaring that if the 10yr jumped to an absurd 4.5% this year, well then, stocks would decline by 20 to 25%. Daan’s (I feel like a goat saying his name) base case scenario is for the 10yr to run up to 3.25% by the end of 2018; but that’s a very boring and monotone point of view. To spice it up a bit, he chucked in a scenario that is an impossibility.

Might I posit the 10yr is less likely to jump to 4.5% this year than a gigantic asteroid striking the planet rendering all life obsolete.

He couched his asinine report by calling it a ‘stress test.’

But it makes for good headlines so expect to see and hear all of the faggots sashay to and fro discusses this very important note today and tomorrow.

I’m guessing Daan is a Dutch name — a nice man from Amsterdam? I didn’t start this blog with the intention of being mean. Truth be told, I’m in a good mood and don’t really have a bone to pick. But come on — these notes are designed to shake people upside down until their money drops out of them, permitting Daan’s employers to gobble it all up like Noo-Noo.

Fuck off Daan and double fuck off Goldman Ball Sachs.

My ‘editorial staff’ permitted my previous article to be published with a glaring dose of heinous stupidity.

The premise: buy good china — because MUH lady friends and MUH rate of return.

What I failed to include was compounded rates of return and MUH inflation. When you calculate the compounded rate of return, it equals out to just 3.51%, turning an $85 investment in 1918 into $2,400 today. After inflation, it turns to complete shit. An $85 purchase in 1918 dollars is equal to $1,395, leaving the rate of return substantially less than the 3.51% quoted pre-inflation. You’d be better off investing in just about anything else in the world other than fancy Haviland china.

Given the circumstances and the fucking hassle in preserving fine china and washing them all the time, one could argue buying and eating on crappy generic paper’d plates is preferable. This way, you can whip something up real quick, eat it, then toss it into the landfill.

As for entertaining guests, take them to a fine eatery. Who the fuck hosts dinner parties at home these days anymore, anyhow? In the event you’re having a party, serve on those fancy hard plastic ones and tell them they’re environmentally friendly and that you oppose the fine china industry because it employs slave and child labor in the far east and that you will not be a party to such shenanigans.

Off to go buy some food for a late dinner snack.

One of my favorite pastimes is to read old newspapers. I have a collection of them, dating back to the 18th century. But you can also accomplish this by searching the Google News archives or via a subscription to the very evil failing NY Times.

One hundred years ago to the day, the NY Times was discussing a sundry of issues — all Great War related topics; Germans being Germans, Russians being Russians. One thing caught my eye — this advertisement.

That looked like a damned good deal, no? A 100+ piece set of china for 85 bucks. Now imagine if you “wasted” your money on a nice 100 piece Haviland set back then and passed it onto your stupid grandkids. What would it be worth today?

Roughly $2,399. That’s a nice rate of return of 2,722% or 27.22% annually over 100 years. Granted, 2,722% can be had in a few idle months investing in SHITCOINS; nevertheless, it’s a proper rate of return — is it not?

At that time, the Dow Jones was roughly the same price as a fine set of Haviland china: $76. That investment is a little sketch, since you’d be cursed by varying changes in the Dow and would’ve been wiped out during the Great Depression. Betting on America in 1918 was, essentially, equivalent on a long bet on the success of the country — something of massive unknown qualities, especially in the midst of a giant war. Had you played the momo trade, when America was clearly great and dominant, you would’ve bought in at the top of the market in 1929, at $300, and would’ve been fucked and underwater until 1954. During that same time, you could’ve hosted plenty of dinner parties on your fine Haviland china and possibly convert those occasions into tangible money making opportunities (e.g., impressing a boss or maybe even a lady friend).

Plus anyway, the Dow’s gains aren’t too impressive if you look at them over time. Hell, it just broke $1,000 during the 1980s and the fucker got down to $6,500 during the 2009 financial crisis. Meanwhile, that Haviland china set remained comfortably intact, the star of your dinner parties, immune to the fuckery of financial markets.

The point is this: instead of buying a lot of shitty things, buy a few really good things. For example, you can buy 10 shitty suits for the price of one good one. You can buy paper plates for the rest of your lives and literally throw away your investment, or buy a fine set of Haviland and see it rise to $25,000 over the next century.

STOP BUYING SHIT.

UPDATE: The compounded rate of return was 3.51%. I was off by a smidge — a rounding error.