12-26-2013 Trading Journal with emphasis on $INO

And the market continued to reach new height to make way for 2014…

Meanwhile, $INO has another fantastic run-up day.  Compared to the last two run-up in the 2nd half of 2013, this run-up is based entirely on expectation instead of news released from the company.  The thing about expectation is that you never know when the run is over.  In other words, we never know where the price point for this renewed expectation.

From the daily chart, you can see that the 79 & 89 MA lines are in an uptrend.  Not only that, these two magical lines are able to support the corrections from the last two run-ups.  For a biotech company to test the previous highs of the last two run-up within a 5-month periods, I’ve to say that $INO has a lot of believers as well as investors who want to see $INO succeeds for the benefits of the human race.  Make no mistake, if the trial result in mid-2014 proves positive, the implication is a disruptive bio-technology that will surely revolutionize vaccines technology.  Not to mention the positive expectation on the multiple pipelines $INO is currently working on.

Can $INO synthetic vaccines work this time when so many others have failed?  Will they finally get it right this time to merit a positive trial result?  Could past failures point $INO to the right path in making synthesis vaccines to work in human?  We will soon find out by mid-2014 with their cervical cancer trial result.  Previous run-up had been based on fantastic news from positive preclinical results on mice.  And a jump from mice to human will require a lot of “tweaking” in the labs to make it works on human.  I’m crossing my finger that the $INO has finally tweaked its synthesis vaccine to the point that it will work on our human body.

Having said that, $INO is still a speculative bet.  A bet that if won, a blast-off in price will result; and if failed, be prepared to say good-bye to your investment.  And that is why I’m investing only a mid-size position in comparing to my previous big bet on the first run back in August.  With a mid-size position, I no longer need to watch it like a hawk and be quick on the trigger.  I can just let it ride amidst the volatility.

Take a look at the monthly chart above, price has already climbed above all MA lines. Even the 89 MA is now beginning to point up.  It looks like price is getting ready to make history next year, the year of 2014.

For all intent and purpose, all the stocks in my portfolio are chosen for its potential explosive run-up in 2014.

$KNDI did well today by heading higher albeit only 2.63%.  As long as price can continue its momentum to the upside, I’m happy.

I like the fact that the 5 MA line is now pointing back up.  There is a lot of potential for $KNDI in 2014.  All we need to hear next year is the completion of more and more car-sharing garages in multiple cities in China.  I truly believe the business model of selling the EV to car-sharing garages as opposed to consumers directly is the KEY to getting EV out on the roads.  I’m very confident that $KNDI (by partnering with Geely- one of the largest car manufacturer in China) will succeed in leaps and bounds in this car-sharing direction.

$XONE continued to head higher today and I like to see it take out $100 next year.

Price has finally bounced away from the 79& 89 MA lines with the 5 MA pointing up.

$GALE is another speculative bio-tech I like that may flourish in 2014.  Today small increase continued to support the current consolidation instead of developing a downward trend.

The underlying tone, as can be seen by the two momentum indicators below as well as the 5 MA line starting to point up, is still bias on the long side.  I can see price pop either into the year-end or early next year.

Thanks to $INO, $KNDI, $XONE, and $GALE, my portfolio has another healthy gain today.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (fully speculated).

My 2 cents.

Without a doubt, X’mas rally has been validated by another fine up day on X’mas Eve.

$KNDI started off with a big bang and traded as high as $8.57 before settled down to close at $8.00.

There is no question that the downtrend line has been breached and price is now looking to head higher from here.  While price did not close near the high, it did close up 4%.  This is good enough for me.  When you look at it from a long-term perspective, it really doesn’t matter if price closes near the high or not ’cause you are looking for a much higher price than today trading range.  Therefore, all I care is that the uptrend is intact.

Next, $CERS continued to surge higher.

Price is now very near the downtrend line and it will not take much to walk over it later this week.  I expect to see much higher price in 2014 simply because I’m confident that they can get FDA approval to sell their products in the U.S.  (Be aware that my confidence in $AMRN has taken me to a cleaner the last few years; in other words, I can be very wrong sometimes.)  $CERS products have been selling in Europe without incident so I don’t see any issue that the FDA may find in $CERS U.S.  trial results   With approval, this stock will take off like a ….

I was glad to see $KGJI bounced today ’cause I needed to see price bounced off the 89 XMA line.

Price action closed above both 79, 89, and 5 MA lines today with both momentum indicators continued to point up.  Let’s see if price can bounce higher from here.

$INO did not disappointed since price moved higher and away from the resistance and now support line at $2.38.

Next target is $2.90 and after that $3.0.

$XONE had a crazy day when price dropped an astounding $5+ from today high.  Miraculously, price recovered to close only .$0.52 or -.88% as opposed to  around -5% for $DDD and $SSYS.

I chose $XONE for its focus on manufacturing angle; and it is probably because of this angle that $XONE survives the downdraft on 3-D printing companies today.

Both $GALE and $AMRN had a negligible correction that did not warrant me to put up a chart for review.

Overall, thanks to $KNDI, $CERS, $KGJI, $LRAD, and $INO, my portfolio has a healthy gain today.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (full speculated)

My 2 cents.

Happy Holiday and thanks for reading my blog!

Market continued to move higher today. One more day of convincing nonbelievers that X’mas rally is for real.

But in my case, my portfolio had a Santa and a nonbeliever working together today; one cancelled the other.

$LRAD, $KGJI, and $AMRN (nonbelievers) corrected but thanks to $INO, $XONE, and $KNDI (Santa), my portfolio was practically unchanged.

$KGJI gave back a chunk of gain from Friday but at low volume; thus, this one still had a lot of nonbelievers to work off.

Notice that price landed right on the 89 XMA line. I like to see price bounces back up tomorrow.  Since $KGJI is a fairly large position, the give back is substantial.

Fortunately, $XONE bounced hard today.

Notice how price action took out the previous pivot-high from Dec 4th at $57.65.  This is a very bullish bounce.

$INO also had a strong breakout today.

Notice how price action took out TWO resistance lines today- one from Nov 25th at $2.24 and $2.38 from Oct 8th.

Although $KNDI was up today, it was still struggling to stay above the downtrend line.

Price still stays above the 15 MA line and the 79 & 89 are still pointing up; so the overall trend is still up.

$AMRN was down today but this was to be expected after a big 25% up day from last Friday.

Price is still above the Friday low which I see at a positive sign.

Meanwhile, $CERS continued to march ahead.

Price is now closing above all MA lines.

$LRAD correction today confirms that it is now in a consolidation phase b/w $2 and $1.8x waiting for news to bounce.

Any big order news from China will drive this one up over $2 very quickly.  Meanwhile, patience is required.

$GALE is also consolidating in a tight range b/w $4.20. and $3.85.

Notice how the 5 MA line is beginning to turn up.  Let’s see if there is a bounce this week before the year end.

Since I believe in $TINY to be relevant only in 2014, it is still worthy of mentioning here.

Based on the weekly chart,above, today bounce may signify a bottom here at around $3.00.

While my portfolio is at breakeven point today, the underlying strength is strong in my opinion.  Thus, I’m looking forward to the weeks ahead.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (fully speculated)

My 2 cents.

The Dow Jones Industrials closed at historical high while the SP500 closed below but still bullish nevertheless.

Meanwhile, I had three stocks that recovered strongly that helped my portfolio bounced solidly today.

$AMRN bounced 25.79% higher, $KGJI 15.38%, and; $CERS 4.97% higher.  With the exception of $GALE, the rest bounced slightly.

Fate had it that $NUGT stopped me out yesterday that prompted me to look at $AMRN; otherwise, I would be watching $AMRN bounce with pain in my heart since I had sat in this one for years with every ounce of conviction that I could muster.  I’m curious if we are seeing the bottom of $AMRN here.  While the FDA is merely delaying the decision that was due today; it opens the possibility that it may consider giving $AMRN some rope for its Vascepa label expansion.  At this stage, any rope, even for an inch, will open the door for $AMRN to recover from its current situation.

While today bar chart didn’t close above the last resistance at $2.07, it is not that far off from it.  Let’s see if there are enough believer going forward to buy the price back up to the Jan 15 decision day.

$KGJI strong green bar coupled with high volume and turning up of the momentum indicators all points to a future rally here.

Notice that today price action closed above all the MA lines.

The weekly bar above is even more bullish. See how price closed above the 89 XMA as well as the 5 and 15 MA lines?  From the weekly chart, this speaks much louder than the daily chart.  The bounce is in and $KGJI is heading higher from here.

$CERS is definitely bouncing away from the support line at $5.7x.

One look at the chart and you can expect to see the bounce will continue on.  Both momentum indicators are turning up with high volume.

Since $KGJI and $CERS are my third and fourth largest position in the portfolio with $AMRN being 50% in size relatively, I expect any strong rally from here for these three stocks will carry my portfolio to higher ground.  Not to mention that the rest of my stocks all have the potential to do the same in 2014 and beyond.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, XONE, INO, GALE, AMRN, TINY (fully speculated).

Btw, giving the Dow Jones Industrials is making new historical high today, I congratulate everyone who is loaded on equity.  For those who is still waiting on the sideline, you know that price inflation will eventually wipe you out despite the government stance that there is no inflation.  The stock market is a major source of protection against inflation in a growing economic environment.  In other words, you are never safe in heavy cash position while the market continues to head higher.  The universe is always expanding, so is the market.

My 2 cents.

Market tried to correct but ended the day nearly neutral.

$NUGT gapped down and I placed a stop below intra-day low instead of outright getting out.  Nope, no luck.  I was stopped out anyway.  I took my losses and moved on.  With the newly released fund, what should I buy?

Then I started looking at $AMRN again. Are you crazy?

What if for some exotic reason the FDA decides to offer some half-way measured approval for Vascepa?  What if…  What if…

Enough what if already; thus I bought back $AMRN with the available cash just to shut myself up.

Now, if $AMRN shoots up tomorrow (long shot), then I’ve $NUGT to thanks for.  Without $NUGT stopping me out today, I wouldn’t have bought $AMRN.  OK, enough talking on my part, let’s roll the dice!

I was hit hard today by $KNDI and $KGJI; thus despite an up day for $LRAD, I’m still under water a bit today.

Nevertheless, for the long-term hold on most of these hi-beta stocks, today hiccup is just your standard cup of tea.  Nothing to sweat about.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, XONE, INO, GALE, TINY, AMRN (fully speculated)

My 2 cents.

Market began by trading down and then spiked up big time in mid-day.

Unfortunately, my portfolio wasn’t able participate in this relative giant rally.

I did change the overall structure of my portfolio by reducing $CERS, $GALE, $TINY to buy $INO.

From the chart, $INO looks like it is going for another test against the resistance at $2.24.  Price is now above all the MA lines.

$NUGT suffered today due to the huge rally in equity.

If it takes out the support at $25.2x, I will have to cut my losses once again.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, XONE, INO, GALE, TINY, NUGT and 1% cash.

My 2 cents.

After a jump yesterday, the market decided to take an early break by taking a minor correction.

Meanwhile, I used the released cash to buy back some $XONE and $GALE I sold yesterday.

Thanks to $LRAD having an up day, it took my portfolio higher today despite some minor dips from $CERS, $KGJI, and $NUGT.

The chart looks bullish overall, You can see that the bounce takes the price above the 5 and 15 MA lines.

The weekly chart looks even better.

See how the 5 MA line is moving higher with price closing above it?  Most important of all, price remains above the breakout line.

$KNDI remained positive although percentage was small.

What I care most about is that price remains above the downtrend line.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, TINY, GALE, XONE, NUGT and 2% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market opened higher and it was a much needed bounce to add to the belief that this uptrend is not over yet.

Due to rally after the open on $NUGT, I added.  And when the rally proved to be persistent (in the morning still), I sold almost half of $XONE to cut losses and moved the fund to $NUGT.

Notice price is still struggling to maintain bounce.  Why am I looking into picking bottom on $NUGT here?  You may wonder…

I’m convinced that gold may be bottoming here because the monthly chart of $GLD is now reflecting a 50% correction from historical low and high.

Did you see how the 50% retracement is landing right on the 79 & 89 MA lines?  These kind of visual support is what give me the confidence to buy “potential” bottom with small risk.

While I like $XONE to be long-term play, I’m still subjected to the pull of the chart patterns.  $XONE took out yesterday low so I had no problem letting some shares go to add to $NUGT.

If $XONE can bounce off the support (blue line), I may buy back shares I sold with cash from sales of some $GALE.

$GALE took out last Thursday low and price fell below the 5 and 15 MA lines.  Even worse, the 5 had crossed below the 15 MA line as well; hence my lightening up $GALE position by 1/3 today to raise cash and reduce risk.

I still think $GALE will rally later so I’m looking to buy back cheaper if possible.

$KNDI rallied strong after open but gave back most of the gain later in the day.  The good news is that price closed higher for the day.

Notice that I re-drew the downtrend line to align with the high of previous bars which put today at a breakout day instead of last week.  If this week can maintain momentum, we may see a solid up bar by end of week.

Glad to see $CERS bounced today ’cause I needed the confirmation that the support line is holding.  It is so far.

Now, $CERS need to continue to bounce to move away from the support line.  The sooner it gets back above the 79 & 89 MA lines, the less stress it will be on my portfolio.

$LRAD, $KGJI and $TINY are still struggling to maintain ground; thus, even with DOW up over 100 points today, my portfolio was at breakeven where small gains on some positions offset small losses on others.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, TINY, GALE, NUGT, XONE and 5% cash.

My 2 cents.

Btw, $PHOT is doing FANTASTIC on my other broker account.  Because this is a long-term hold for me, I may see some give back of unrealized gain due to profit-taking sooner or later.

The market had another lukewarm neutral day. Perhaps a pause before the bounce for X’mas rally?

Meanwhile, seeing the $NUGT was up, $CUR was struggling but down and $WG couldn’t make up its mind in the morning, I decided to put my available cash into $NUGT.

However, price was under attack later in the day. Let’s see what happen next week.  If it continues to go down, I may just let this one go.

I bought a big bag of $PHOT with my other broker account for the long haul.  I chose $PHOT over $MJNA because it got the former Microsoft executive to take over the title of President as well as receiving a commitment of $40 million to be used primarily on acquisitions and expansion initiatives in a JV deal.

From the weekly chart, $PHOT is now near the high from earlier this year. I believe $PHOT has the best business model to capture the opportunity in legalized cannabis industry.

Meanwhile, $KNDI made a fantastic come-back for the day.  As I had said yesterday, price was so close to the downtrend line that it was only a stone throw away from crossing over.  Today, it simply walked over.

Today price action may be a sign that the time to swing trade $KNDI is over.  ’cause if you are not careful, price can simply take off without you; leaving you facing the dust while holding a small bag of coin on your hand.  I’m commit to holding this one as long as the fundamental stay intact.

From a weekly perspective, $KNDI took out the downtrend line this week.

It is as simple as that.

Despite $XONE, $KGJI, $CERS,, $GALE, and $TINY taking a dip today, the win on $KNDI takes my portfolio higher today; simply because $KNDI is my 2nd largest position on the portfolio.  It is a double-edge sword alright; but I don’t mind it at all if it is going in my favor.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, GALE, XONE, TINY, NUGT and 2% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market had a lukewarm down day; nothing like yesterday but a down day nevertheless.

I was stopped out at the open when $NUIGT gapped down way passed my breakeven stop.  Again, I had to witness giving back all my unrealized gain on the $NUGT trade.  I sorted of nailed the bottom for a day or two with nice profit; but because I was looking for a longer term outlook on $NUGT, I was willing to risk giving back profit for a bigger pay-off.  Not this time once again.

However, looking at the daily chart above,it seems like $NUGT was bouncing off the established low around the low $25.xx.  If price takes out today high, I may go back in.  But with limited cash available, I’m debating whether to buy $WG, $CUR, or jump back in $NUGT.

$GALE traded lower after open and I decided to add to my position when price bounced off from the 89 XMA in the 5 min.chart.  Yesterday strong came back was another reason I wanted to rebuild my position on $GALE.

Notice that price dropped at the close.  This was due to $INSY receiving a subpoena from Office of Inspector General for sales and marketing issue.  Since $INSY is selling a competing products against $GALE’s Abstral, the drop may be misguided ’cause $GALE should benefit if $INSY products sales are being compromised from the investigation.  Let’s see how it rolls tomorrow.

$KGJI had a nice bounce off the 79 & 89 MA lines.

Notice how the 79 & 89 lines are merging together.  Did you see the bullish engulfment candlestick bar today?  Still long and strong on all my shares.

$KNDI also bounced today except that bounce was from the 15 MA line.

You can see that the price is not that far off from taking out the downtrend line.  While I have given back a nice unrealized gain from three days ago, I do not mind since the the long-term gain from this stock is far more bigger…

$CERS has finally stabilized with a  doji bar.

As you can see, price is settling on the established floor around $5.7x.  Let’s see if it bounces tomorrow.

$TINY continues to head lower but my eyes are focusing only on 2014 for this stock.

Despite some price rally on $KNDI, $KGJI, $XONE,,my porfolio still suffered a minor dip due to giving back gain on $NUGT and a drop in $LRAD price.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, GALE, TINY and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.