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Watch out! The Bull is waking up!


Run I did; but on the same path as the bull.

I bought back my CCJ as well as half of AMRN I sold this morning.

I also added to my SZYM and bought WPRT.

Oh yeah, I still have my GLOG which I did not touch.

I’m now 52% invested with 48% cash.

But if this bull turn out to be just jumping up from a bad dream; then I will be quick to get the hell out of my position.

Time of day turnaround signal can be gleamed around 02:30 pm EST which is about now. We will soon find out if this bull will get up and run again or the bear will simply continue the destruction it started this morning.

Good Luck to All!

Below is the daily chart for WPRT.  Notice the support near the 79 ma.  This is a close call and can be considered as a bottom-picking buy (aka catching the falling knife play).

One more thing, if you look carefully at the chart, you may notice a head & shoulder formation which is essentially a bearish signal for WPRT.  However, I like to see the neckline as a support first and see if price will bounce from here.  If not, I will bail out when price takes out yesterday low in the near future.

Happy Hunting!


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Anted up once again

What do you say when the stuff you expected to see happening did not happen?

“Oh, somebody sold me another faked crystal ball!”

Did I just say that?  Damn!

Well, even though today is a tepid small range up day; I’m definitely motivated to jump back in simply because today is not a down day I was expecting to see.

I bought back GLOG in $11.20ish; AMRN in the $13ish. CCJ back in the low $20; and SZYM around $12.30

Together with my LT equity investment, I am now 40% invested.

Below is the GLOG daily chart.  There is a “possibility” of a runner here.

Below is the AMRN daily chart.  This one looks more and more like a “definite” take over target.  Beware of my bias lean on the word “definite”.  I’ve a track record of being wrong.

Below is the 15m chart of CCJ.  This is definitely bottom picking here; but my stop is close so it is now a low risk trade.

Below is the daily chart of SZYM.  Another bottom-picking idea; however, I did not put a lot of money behind this bet.  There seem to be some support in the low $12 area.

Happy Hunting!

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Market raised, I folded

I’m seeing a bluff.  In a poker game, you want to continue the play when you see a bluff; but in the stock market, you have to do the opposite.  I folded.

Currently 89% cash.  I practically liquidated everything except my long-term equity hold.

I may as well be the fool to sell so soon; but I’m quite content to rest here with 20% YTD gain.

I think that is why I sold, I don’t want to risk going back below my 20% YTD at this inflection point.

Yes, it is my contention that we are at an inflection point of either going up or going down.

If we have a down day or even a neutral day at market close, there will be an evening star formation which is a bearish reversal signal.  Now, I may be jumping the gun or ahead of myself; but I prefer to sit back with cash and watch the show with pop-corn.

Good luck to all!

Below is the SPY daily chart.  Notice that today bar is still green; but if it doesn’t take out yesterday high, we may have an evening star formation.

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Samsung’s setback is RIMM’s 2nd chance

Whether you like it or not, instead of being marked for dead, RIMM is now a more viable alternative if Samsung is forced to lose their momentum by having to retrofit their Galaxy brand of mobile phones before selling in the US.  Meanwhile, RIMM’s smartphone will be coming out early next year waiting to take orders from loyal Samsung customers who are still crying for the new Galaxy phone they thought they could get but could not.  Due to their “anger” against AAPL and their vow to refuse to “pay up” to buy an iPhone, RIMM’s new smartphone “may” be an attractive alternative if the “HYPE” behind it is as good as RIMM’s marketing team says it is.

Meanwhile, price action is voting a tepid yes.  I’m willing to wager that if Samsung fails to win in the appeal, RIMM will shoot up with such enthusiasm you thought kcscott’s brand of friends are to blame!

Below is the daily RIMM chart.  Notice that it took out Friday high; however, the reversal from today intra-day high showed price action was only lukewarm for now.

I added more RIMM today simply because it took out Friday high and not because of the fundamental reason I postulated above.

Good Hunting!

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Bottom picking to get RIMM

Hopefully, I will not get reamed for doing so!

Giving the “potential” (a loaded question mark here) of the new version of Blackberry coming out early next year, I’m betting there will be a slow recovery from here to the release of the new Blackberry phone.

Actually, this is a pretty low risk trade with a potential for a 3x+ over risk.  I bought @ $7 with a stop below today low.  If you look at the daily RIMM chart below, taking out today low mean violating the upward slope trendline I drew.  RIMM needs to have higher highs and higher lows from here to maintain an upward trend direction from here.  As you can see and calculate, the risk is quite acceptable for me.

I will add more if there is higher high on the daily bar going forward.

Believe it or not, I’m 70% invested!

Breakdown of my portfolio by sector:

Uranium 20%

Biotech 26%

Natural Gas 11%

LT equity 11%

Experimental 2%

Good Hunting!


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Doing the Opposite

Very strange day for me today.  Normally, I will be buying TZA giving the downdraft; but after making only lunch money even when I was “right” the last couple of time, the effort is just not worth the trouble.  Instead I try to see if there is any support for the SPY to halt the correction any time soon and I think I see something.

Forgive  me for being creative in my liberated use of the pitchfork.  I think you are limiting yourself by focusing only on the “proper” way to use anything.  Anyway, the white pitchfork helped me identify the range of support giving past price consolidating area.  Thus, from the daily SPY chart below, I’m seeing support in the $140ish area.


Based on my “personal” analysis of the chart, I’m brushing off today correction as a temporary dip against the raging bull.  So what do you do when you believe the bull is still waiting to gore the short?  You buy something that is going up.

So, as a long-time biotech speculator, I see some bio-babies are brimming to grow up fast.  So, I added to my AMRN and bought ALXA and THLD.  All three show a detached indifference to the current correction by either going higher or just staying put.

Noticeably, another one I like that show the strong underlying “bull-current” is the uranium stock CCJ.  Despite DOW going down 100 pts, CCJ is still up for the day.  Somehow, uranium based stocks are getting back into the consciousness of the big money and I believe they are ready to run when this correction is over.  As a result, I bought back DNN, ES, and URG I sold this week.

Below are some more charts for my future reference:

Below is the AMRN daily chart:

Below is the daily ALXA chart:

Below is the daily CCJ chart:

Currently, I’m 55% invested with 45% cash.

Good Hunting!

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Are we there yet?

Ok, we have a bad ass bearish engulfment bar on the SPY daily chart (see below).  Is this the turning point or is it only a small correction for the infinite bull?

I am not going to hang round with a loaded portfolio to find out.

I sold all my uranium based stocks to lock in profit.

I sold BAS to cut my losses; but I’m holding GLOG.

I’m still holding my Biotech AMRN & EXEL since their potential run is worth the risk I assigned.

Bought a small starter position on TZA.  Yes, I’m prepared for the market to gap up against me.

Almost forgot, I took profit on half of my AAPL put option and is holding the other half for tomorrow.  I may end up giving my profit back tomorrow due to AAPL strong supporter base.  But I like to give it one more day.

Currently 70% cash.

Good luck to all (long or short).


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Energy Festival Day

After selling all my uranium stocks this morning due to the downdraft, I pretty much bought most of them back albeit a bit higher price than I sold for.  I also added URG into the midst and let go of USU which didn’t performed as expected.

I also bought some BAS because I like Mr. Cain Thaler’s thesis as well as the forming of a Cup & Handle pattern.  Don’t underestimate the Cup & Handle pattern, a breakout from the handle can become a runner.

Can you see the Cup & Handle pattern on BAS daily chart below?

Thanks Mr. Thaler for the idea!  If BAS is a winner, all credit go to Mr. Thaler!

I also bought some GLOG.  This one is a recent IPO (March 2012) and is a cheap alternative to buying LNG or GLNG based on market capitalization value.  However, earning is tomorrow so I’m treading on the gambling side here.  Despite the earning report tomorrow,  I don’t want to chase this baby if the earning report does not have negative outlook.   I like to own GLOG for long-term here since transportation of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is the future as far as I’m concerned.

Below is the daily chart for GLOG.  Notice that it is getting ready to take out the June 20th high of $10.60.  Or it could bounce back down; so this one is risky.  Tomorrow earning report will dictate the direction here.  I’ll add more if $10.60 high is taken out.

Currently, I’m heavy on energy in my portfolio:

27% Uranium based stocks (CCJ, DNN, ES, URG)

9%  Natural Gas based stocks (BAS, GLOG)

9% Biotech (AMRN & EXEL)

11% LT Equity

44% cash

Good Hunting!

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The True EDGE in trading

So everyone is supposed to have an edge in order to win in this stock market game, right?

But what edge are we talking about here?

In general, when people talk about edge, they often refer to statistical advantage.  We will call this type of edge “technical edge”.

But to me, technical edge becomes zero edge if you don’t have the discipline to follow it.

I know I repeat this again and again but I think it is worth repeating because it is my opinion that “being discipline” is the true edge that allow you to beat the other 90% of the trader in making it.

In other words, you can be very proficient with the following:

– Chart reading that included your understanding of all popular chart patterns such as head-and-shoulder, cup and handle, double top, double bottom, flag, triangles (symmetrical, ascending, and descending), wedge, gap, triple top, triple bottom, and of course candlestick chart patterns.

– Technical analysis that included all kinds of oscillator and momentum indicators.

– Other chart & technical analysis that I did not mention above

And you still have no edge if you allow your emotion to dictate the better half of your trading decision.

But discipline doesn’t just drop on your lap without effort. You have to work at it.

To begin with, you need experience.

If you are a trader, either as a beginner or intermediate, you are already on the path to gaining experience.  However, experience alone will do nothing for you unless it is being reviewed and analyzed by yourself.  By reviewing your trades, you learn to become a witness to your own trading decision.  But to be a true witness of yourself during trading, you need to be self-aware.  Instead of living in your own fear or greed, you learn to stand back and watch yourself being in fear or greed.  If you can possess this type of self-awareness to witness your fear and greed, you will have the self-awareness to “choose” not to let it interfere with you trading plan.

Below is an example of your NOT being aware of your own emotion:

“FUCK! Why the FUCK did the stock have to go against me after I bought!  It HAS to go up.  I KNOW it!  I’m buying some more here!”

Below is an example of your being AWARE of your own emotion:

“Fuck! I may be wrong again. I HATE being wrong. Look like price action is going to hit my stop soon.  FUCK!  Oh well, moving on.  I will watch to see how this stock behave in the next couple of days.  I will take the next buy setup signal if there is one.”

When you are aware, you are not living inside your fear, anger, frustration, and greed.  That mean you still have the ability to choose to side-step your fear and greed and stay the course of your trading plan.  But to get to this level of being able to side-step your emotion, you have to climb THE mountain.  That is, the mountain of self-awareness.  And climb you will if you are commit to the path of trading well.   In time, your constant awareness of your emotional reaction and your effort to bypass these reaction will become less of a struggle and more of a habit.  And before you know it, your habit is your discipline.  And following your trading plan will become second nature.

All the effort in gaining self-awareness not only make you a better trader but a better person in life.

This is how discipline becomes you and this is how you become discipline.

You see, the true edge in being a winning trader is not the technical edge, it is your ability to commit to your risk management and trading plan because you possess self-awareness to bypass your own emotional hindrance.  We are all human; therefore, we will have our emotion.  The key to avoid living inside your emotion is your self-awareness.  And because you are self-aware, you have the power to make a choice.  With practice, your choice of following your trading plan despite your fear and greed becomes a habit.  Viola!  You now have discipline.

The road to true edge only appear to you when you are ready.  You can be reading this and agree wholeheartedly; but if you are not ready, this information will be forgotten the next day when you are staring at your loss with anger or fear.  If you are ready, you will understand what you need to do to gain this self-awareness.  In my case, I stopped buying books on trading and took up Tai Chi and meditation.

Good Hunting!

ps. Oh yeah! If you are ready, you can also do what Yogi and Boo Boo does.  Start trading small lot so you can learn to take small losses.  In time, taking small losses become a habit.  Then progress to move up the ladder by increasing your lot size in small increment to acclimate yourself.  This is the same technique in martial art training when beginners are forced to spar with partner to learn to acclimate to the punches and kicks coming at you.  You know your partner is not going to hurt you bad so you begin to put aside fear and learn to dodge and defend yourself with proper martial art techniques.  This is the same principle in trading.  You know you are not taking big loss so you learn to put aside your fear and greed and learn to apply proper risk management and following your trading plan.

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Get ready for a Face-Off

Yes, Facebook is what I’m referring to.  While I’m not the only one expecting a FB sell-off due to the coming available FB shares to be released into the public; but today price action figuratively slams the fist on the table.  Bang!

Gap down warning!

Look at the daily chart below:  There are 3 gap downs (not counting today) in the history of FB price actions (see the highlighted circles) and they all ended with the trend heading lower afterward.  Why would today be any different?  On top of that, there is a baseline support around $19.82 (08/02/2012 low) that is looking to be penetrated soon.

Below is the hourly FB chart for a better effect on the gap down look.

Well, what do you think?  Of course, I bought some FB put optons for this bet.  And yes, if the baseline support is penetrated, I’ll buy more puts.

Remember, trade with discipline and follow the price actions.

Good Hunting!

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