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Monthly Archives: August 2013

Cup and Handle breakout for $AMRN

So much for coming in this morning with load of cash on hand.  I’m just thankful that there is no “surprise” news on $AMRN that I’ll be deprived of a reasonable re-entry from zero position.  As luck will have it, I only have to pay a small premium to buy back my core position plus more for swing trade.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


I like the fact that price action has taken out the high of July 2013 at $6.20.  On top of that, price action also took out the 79sma as well as the 89xma.  If price action can maintain momentum, we may have a rally toward the October FDA Advisory Committee meeting that most investors (myself included) are expecting a slam-dunk “clear ahead” for the December FDA decision on approving Vascepa for the mid-trig (200-500) population.  Of course, you also have Adam Feuerstein who holds the opposite opinion of $AMRN getting a nod from the FDA. Who do you believe?

Don’t believe anyone; but believe only on your own research. Read up on the FDA approval process if you are not familiar with it.  You will find that it takes a very long and expensive road for any company to get a prescription drug approved by the FDA.  $AMRN has come a long-way and it is now knocking on the door of FDA for the mid-trig (200-500) level.  Have you seen any other competitors offering the same thing?  Even if there are, they are still a long way before knocking on FDA door. Recent purchase of Omthera by AstraZeneca ($AZN) is an example.

Yes, I’ve been on the wrong side of the track for quite a while with $AMRN but I believe the road is now heading on the right direction. Nevertheless, at this point, I’m watching $AMRN as an intermediate-term trader instead of a die-hard buy and hold investor. In other words, I’m not married to the stock so to speak.

My 2 cents.

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The only time you can be wrong and still not lose money

is when you are in cash.

I’m betting that the market is going to correct starting later today or next week and I can be totally wrong.  And to stand by my bet, I’ve raised my cash level to 67% as of now.

Why am I making such a bet?

Take a look at the daily $SPY chart below:


I asked myself what is $SPY “not” doing?

It is not taking off in a big way to follow up with yesterday momentum.  Regarding yesterday momentum up day, did you notice that the volume was less than the volume of the previous down day?

It is very possible that we are looking at a dead cat bounce and again, it is possible I’m very wrong.  Some will say we are bouncing right off the 79 sma line.  That is very true too.  As much as I can see the bounce, the underlying lower volume behind the bounce bothers me.

So, what’s wrong with my being wrong?


I’ll just have to start nibble back in next week if the market continues to head skyward.

On the other hand, I could be looking for bargain hunting.

Either way, I’m feeling quite peaceful with a high level of cash as of now.

My 2 cents.

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Shifting with the wind- from the gale of $NUGT to the gust of $INO

It was quite a strange morning.  The leaves were wavering a little harder, the fallen leaf flew a little further out, and most important of all, my eyes were bombarded by flying tiny debris such that I had to squint to see what kind of wind was blowing my way…

Being in a twilight state of consciousness, the winds formed into the shape of an animal… and the horns looked familiar… OMG! they were bull’s horns.  The image was like a slow motion replay of a bull stampede scene  you saw in Lone Ranger movie.  Because they were winds, the bulls ran right through me as if I was merely a shadow of the nearby tree.  From my vantage point, I could see the burned mark on one of the bull.  It was branded at $INO.

The gust of $INO was getting ready to stampede!  I immediately checked the price.  It was printing over $1.30 by the time I checked the screen.  I could sense this move had a malevolent tone and the desperation in the price action was quite palpable.  Without hesitation, I clicked on the buy button again, again, again, and again.  The fills were completed in a stair-step fashion with each fills higher than the others.

Then I wait.

Price action did not falter.  Not only did price action take out the yesterday high, it took out $1.50 resistance.  And for that, I added more.

By day end, the gust of $INO has taken my position to $1.68.

The interesting part about my hitching the gust of $INO today was that I was just getting off the gale of $NUGT.  $NUGT’s gale had taken me for a ride from the bottom of the valley to the top of mountain where I could see the $100 roll dangling outside my reach.  There were magic involved for I had started off at low $5.xx at the beginning of the ride.  Out of nowhere, the ETF master flipped the wand and I was seeing $98.xx!  As I reached out to the $100 roll, the gale suddenly dissolved into a tepid breeze and I was left standing at $89.6x.  So much for the $100 roll.

Without missing a step, I’m now riding the gust of $INO.  How far can I ride this gust?  Will it even head in the same direction tomorrow?  I sure do hope so.  I could feel the energy.  I could hear the crying.  I believed they were the cry of the shorts being squeezed.

Holy Cow!  The Gust of $INO might just continue to fly straight ahead on the back of the short-squeezed runaway…  YEOWWWWEEE! The pain!  The pain!” uttered the shorts…

My 2 cents…


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$NUGT Post-split Revisit

As The Fly used to say, “going for the $100 roll…”

Well, that is what I like to say for $NUGT as well.  After the 1 for 10 reverse split, price action continues to look bullish.

Instead of reading $9.78 on the price chart, now I’m reading $97.84.  Whoa!  It is going for $100!

I guess there is a nice sound to it.  So, I’ll have the ETF master to thank for the reverse split.

Heeeeerrrrrrreeeeeeee comes $1 0 0!

Ok, kidding asides, take a look at the daily chart below:


Today green bar is a good sign after two days of correction.  Next resistance is high of two days ago at $103.90.  I say price can take that out before the week is over.  Next target after that is $124.20.

Below is the 5m chart:


Isn’t it a beauty to see a persistent intra-day bullish trend?

Coming into the morning, I only had a small starter position, after seeing price action took off to the upside after open, I bought back in full-size looking for the $100 roll…

Good luck if you are already in $NUGT.

My 2 cents.


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David & Goliath, the battle of DNA Sequencing

Why is $PACB continuing to show strength?  What is the fundamental driver here?

First off, the problems and issues that brought $PACB’s DNA Sequencer down since their IPO have been addressed and remedied according to their latest earnings report update.  Customers are beginning to come back.

However, I believe the latest price upward momentum may have to do with the latest find:

Scientists Assess Error Modes in Sequencing Platforms and Find SMRT Sequencing ‘Least Biased’

Monday, August 19, 2013

Scientists Assess Error Modes in Sequencing Platforms and Find SMRT Sequencing ‘Least Biased’

A paper from scientists at the Broad Institute reports a rigorous study of bias across all major sequencing platforms. In “Characterizing and measuring bias in sequence data,” published in Genome Biology, lead author Michael Ross and his colleagues report that SMRT® Sequencing on the PacBio® sequencer is the “least biased” in coverage of all the technologies studied.

The authors assessed sequences for coverage bias, or uniformity of read distribution, and error bias, or incorrect call at a given position. For coverage bias, they report that PacBio performed best in extreme GC content (both GC-rich and GC-poor) and suggest this may be related to the lack of an amplification step in the sequencing process. Regarding error bias, the scientists describe shifting error rates based on genome sequence; GC-rich or homopolymer regions, for example, tended to change the rate of errors for each platform. “In general, the sequence context dependence of error rates varied considerably from technology to technology,” they write.

Ross et al. note that each platform’s bias rate changes with technology development, but note that at the time of their work, “single-molecule data from Pacific Biosciences” had “the clear edge.”

Below is the actual report from Genome Biology:

Characterizing and measuring bias in sequence data

Michael G Ross*, Carsten Russ, Maura Costello, Andrew Hollinger, Niall J Lennon, Ryan Hegarty, Chad Nusbaum and David B Jaffe

Genome Biology 2013, 14:R51   doi:10.1186/gb-2013-14-5-r51
Published: 29 May 2013

DNA sequencing technologies deviate from the ideal uniform distribution of reads. These biases impair scientific and medical applications. Accordingly, we have developed computational methods for discovering, describing and measuring bias.

We applied these methods to the Illumina, Ion Torrent, Pacific Biosciences and Complete Genomics sequencing platforms, using data from human and from a set of microbes with diverse base compositions. As in previous work, library construction conditions significantly influence sequencing bias. Pacific Biosciences coverage levels are the least biased, followed by Illumina, although all technologies exhibit error-rate biases in high- and low-GC regions and at long homopolymer runs. The GC-rich regions prone to low coverage include a number of human promoters, so we therefore catalog 1,000 that were exceptionally resistant to sequencing. Our results indicate that combining data from two technologies can reduce coverage bias if the biases in the component technologies are complementary and of similar magnitude. Analysis of Illumina data representing 120-fold coverage of a well-studied human sample reveals that 0.20% of the autosomal genome was covered at less than 10% of the genome-wide average. Excluding locations that were similar to known bias motifs or likely due to sample-reference variations left only 0.045% of the autosomal genome with unexplained poor coverage.

The assays presented in this paper provide a comprehensive view of sequencing bias, which can be used to drive laboratory improvements and to monitor production processes. Development guided by these assays should result in improved genome assemblies and better coverage of biologically important loci.

Enough about the fundamental, take a look at the weekly chart below:


While there is a beauty in seeing the nice rally today, price action needs to take out the nearest resistance at $4.00 so it can move on to the next target at $5.27 which was the high made in 2/17/2012.  Since both resistances are more than a year old; breaking out of these resistances can only mean that the power behind the move is substantial and strong; otherwise, price action will fall apart after touching the resistance(s).

Giving the new development in how much better $PACB’s DNA Sequencer is due to its being the “least biased”, I’m betting that price can cut thru those resistances like hot knife against butter.

Needless to day, I added more $PACB today due to strong morning price action.

My 2 cents.


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V-shape $CORN anyone?

Anyone interesting in taking a bite of a V-shape $CORN?

I’m game for it.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


$CORN broke out of last week high and I bought in a decent size position for a possible V-shape bounce.

I like to see $CORN hit the target of $43 in the near future soon; otherwise, it won’t be called V-shape.

Below daily chart shows a decent breakout of the last 5 trading days.


Fundamentally speaking, Dry Weather and Abandoned Land Help Bolster Corn ETF.

The caveat of trading agriculture commodity is that its price action is subjected to extreme volatility due to weather condition.  On the other hand, price can stay on trend due to persistent fundamental reason.

My 2 cents.

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Finding support in $CREE

I’m joining Raul3 by buying a full-size position on $CREE today.  I initially bought $CREE on the day of the gap-down; but when price was looking to cut below $60, I dumped 80% of my holding and wait.  I’ve bought back more $CREE today because price has confirmed a support that I’m seeing in the chart.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


The last pivot high was established in the week of 03/22/2013 at $55.66; today $CREE bounced off from the low of $55.75.

Below is another version of the weekly chart that shows the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement support at $55.61 going back to the low established in June of 2012.


Below daily chart shows $CREE is bouncing.  Potentially, if price could close at current level without giving back the gain by the close, we may have a bullish harami in the making.  Of course, price will need to take out the high of today next week to confirm this bullish bounce.


Now, take a look at the 5m intra-day chart below:


I like the fact that price action took out the upper-band of the 20 minutes opening range (grey area).  I’m watching to make sure it doesn’t break down and take out the lower-band today.  If it does, I may elect to put my stop below $55.60 at a GTC hard stop.

Good luck to all who has $CREE.  I concur with Raul3 that the technology of LED will soon replace our obsolete fluorescent and candescent lighting simply because it saves electric and last much longer.

My 2 cents.

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To sit, or not to sit–that is the question for gold dust trade

$NUGT has been on a tear since I began buying on Aug 7th.  Don’t believe me?  I had it time-stamped on twitter…


With only one day of minor correction to fill the gap on Aug 13th, price continued to march on.  While I had proclaimed I would “try” to sit on this position, the trading bug in me had me taking profit and jumping back in a couple of times since the blast-off.

As luck would have it, after taking profit yesterday at the $8.2x level with a bit of concern that I might have gotten out too soon, $NUGT opened lower and then bounced!  Without hesitation, I immediately jumped right back in to buy $NUGT at the low $8.xx.  And when the morning retracement brought the price back down to low $8 again, I added a bit more to take advantage of the retracement.  I would call today fortune of my ability to jump back in below my exit price yesterday as “lucky” intuition.

As of now, $NUGT price has broken out of the 7/23 high as I had suggested on my Aug 9th post,  Can $NUGT continue to go up from here?

I like to say so.  With the market on a correction mode, flight to safety in gold may be the next favorite trading position.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


As I began typing this post, $NUGT was still trading around the previous high of $8.57; now I could see price action continues to accelerate to the upside.  My next target for $NUGT is $12.42 (or $124.20 after 1 for 10 reverse-split).

Perhaps, I shall “sit” a little tighter now with the reverse split coming on line soon.  The split may or may not drive the price even higher.

My 2 cents.

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Finally, do we have a bottom for $NUGT?

Here is the fundamental catalyst for yesterday 25% jump on price action for $NUGT:

From Dow Jones Newswires’ Matt Day and Laura Clarke:

Data released on Thursday showed Chinese exports and imports both grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July, a sign that the second-largest economy was steadying after a first-half slowdown.

In response, the cost of physical gold on China’s benchmark exchange rose another $4 an ounce to $5 an ounce above London’s global benchmark, traders with TD Securities said, potentially a sign of increased demand there. China is the No. 2 gold consumer, and stronger growth can lift demand for gold.

The data gave “hope to those gold bugs who hope that Chinese buying will lead [prices] back to the heady heights of 2011,” said David Govett, head of precious metals with Marex Spectron. Futures hit record highs above $1,900 an ounce in September 2011.

Now, take a look at the daily chart below:


Did you see the previous big green bar on 6/28 and the one from yesterday?  Yesterday big green bar has a higher low than the one on 6/28.


Well, after the big green bar on 6/28, price began to climb to the high of $8.57 on 7/23 before correcting; this time, I like to see it breakout of that $8.57 high.

Below is the weekly chart:


Did you see the identical “T” shape weekly bar for the week ended of 6/28 and the one ending this week?

Does it look like it is going to bounce right out of the gate?

Fortunately, I bought some starter position two days ago and added more yesterday after the open.  I may add more if market open higher in the morning.  I like to see that price will zigzag all the way back to the former high.  This will allow me to hold on to my position for a lot longer.  I just need to learn how to “sit” on this position…

My 2 cents.


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Can $PACB return to its IPO price?

I’ve traded in and out of $PACB in the past with some success.  I had one big win but was stung with plenty of whipsaws due to my bad timing and inability to hold the stock with conviction; as a result, I took it off my radar until now.

From the recent earning announcement, it seems that $PACB’s Gene Sequencer has been perfected in a way that the biotech industry is beginning to take notice. For further reading on this, please click on this link.

I’m jumping back on this trade because of better fundamental and because of technical breakout.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


Did you see the persistence bullish price action after the breakout point despite the general market correction for the last few days?

Below is the weekly chart:


If $PACB’s revamped Gene Sequencer becomes the favorite in the biotech industry, we can expect to see the price climbs back to the IPO level of $16.  (Don’t need me to remind you of the Big IF here…)

I was planning to buy more from scaling down. Since price refused to go down, I had no choice but began buying when price kept on climbing for the last two days.

My 2 cents.

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