Folks, we are heading into Oct 16th FDA advisory committee meeting. Place your chips either at the center of the table or put it back into your pocket. As for myself, I moved a sizable amount into the center.
Well, what cards do I have that I’m willing to risk such amount on this $AMRN bet? you may wonder.
Here are my cards:
I’ve been taking Vascepa everyday (4 grams a day) since March. Although I was fearful of the large size of the capsule in the beginning, now I’m looking forward to taking them at meal time. Believe me when I said it is actually my body that looks forward to taking Vascepa. Despite its large size, I swallowed the pill as if it was nothing. It went down my throat smoothly with no reflex of gagging as some might have feared. I can see that $AMRN is using the best quality capsule to contain the EPA ingredient inside which make it so much easier to swallow. I had swallowed over-the-counter (OTC) fish oil capsules before and I can tell you the quality of the capsule used by Vascepa is far superior.
Why would my body looked forward to taking the capsules? I believe because the EPA ingredient in Vascepa is doing something good inside my body. So far, I’ve no side-effect whatsoever from the months of taking Vascepa. My latest blood test from my doctor has reflected significant improvement on my trig level. And I’m feeling fine where my heart is concerned.
Is it psychological that I’m looking forward to taking Vascepa or is it really my body who craves it? Does it really matter? When you think about this, you know I will always get my refill. Imagine all the other people who is taking Vascepa or is going to be taking Vascepa feel the same way that I’m feeling. Go figure.
Next, why will FDA Advisory committee meeting have anything against a specialized fish-oil with high concentration of EPA that can provide the benefits that over-the-counter fish oil cannot? Think about this, by taking a favorite stance on Vascepa on the Anchor indication, FDA may be encouraging people to stay away from the OTC fish oils with questionable purity and go for the healthier fish-oil that have been proven in Phase 3 trials with multitude of benefits.
Have you been to Costco lately? If you wander into the aisle where the Omega-3 fish oils are stocked, you will be surprised how many different brands of Omega-3 are available. In other words, there are huge demand for Omega-3 fish oil. Offer these people a prescription grade Omega-3 fish oil with proven benefits and how many do you think will jump over from OTC brands?
There you have it, my fundamental reason for believing $AMRN’s Vascepa will get a nod from the FDA Advisory committee. If it is good for the population, why withhold it? It is my opinion that there is simply no risk for the FDA Advisory committee to clear the road for Vascepa.
Now, take a look at the daily chart:
Currently, from the daily chart, price action has cleared all the MAs (5, 15, 79, and 89). Price action has obviously taken a positive turn and is on the way to take out the recent high at $7.40.
Now, take a look at the weekly chart:
As you can see, the downtrend line has been broken. Price action has taken out the 5 and 15 SMA lines. There are two overhead resistances from the 79SMA and 89XMA. With any good news from the FDA, these two resistances will be taken out quite effectively.
Now, stand back and look at both of the charts again, the daily and the weekly. Did you see the cup and handle pattern being developed? Does it look like a break out is about to take place?
Am I crazy to bet big on $AMRN? Maybe I am; but what is the point of not betting big when I “personally” perceive a statistically advantage here? After all, isn’t why we “speculate” in the stock market? Searching for a stock with a probability of making a run to the upside? To me, it is a calculated risk I’m willing to take.
But don’t forget, I’ve been wrong and have taken big losses before; on the other hands, I’ve also made a few successful bets as well.
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Do or die time, still long over here
I’m out as well. The FDA briefings diminished any “logical” hope for a positive outcome for Oct 16th meeting.
Perhaps the briefings was a head up before the final blow. I’ll take a head up any time any day over a final blow. Losses I took today might be far less than the losses I would have to take if Oct 16th decision was the final blow.
Below is an excerpt from my trading journal regarding the $AMRN trade:
“Meanwhile, I wasn’t so lucky with $AMRN. Murphy Law applied to me today. Of all the trading days, I had to pick today to have a meeting that ended in the last 30 minutes before the closing bell. The truth was that I didn’t expect to foresee any problem with the FDA briefings. I expected the Oct 16th would be the real deal. Little did I know that the briefings contained information that could be construed as negative. As positive as I was with Vascepa, I could not maintain anymore of the optimism when I read Bloomberg’s headline “Amarin Fish Oil Pill Needs Heart Study Results, FDA Says”. That headline was the first thing I saw after my meeting and when I saw the price was trading at $5.1x; I knew immediately what I had to do. I started to unload all my shares and call options at the market. I didn’t care if the bids were horrible, I just wanted out.”
As stamped in PPT, I reduced on 10/2 bounce, and liquidated the rest of the position on 10/11 shortly below $6 when the briefing documents came out.
With today’s AdCom vote having gone 9-2 against expanded indication, I’m greatly relieved to hear that both of you guys also pulled the plug rather than gamble on a binary event.
Good to hear you were out as well. In a way, I was glad the briefing gave everyone (who listened) a head-up; otherwise, I would have held all the way thru the bad news today. Whew! EQ, thanks for your comment.