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Monthly Archives: December 2012

A year in review (swing trade vs position trade)

“What a year!” I shouted out loud.

In a nutshell, below is my trading summary for 2012:

Swing trade: YTD gain +24%

Position trade :YTD drawdown -15%

Net YTD gain for 2012 = 9%

I can still remember very clearly the day that I’ve decided to commit $AMRN and $USU to the position trade portfolio.  It was in September 14, 2012 when I penned the post: “5 years Bullish Plan?

Do I regret the commitment now that I have the hindsight?


I had been watching and trading $AMRN since 2011 and I felt that September 2012 was the “right” time to commit since the potential for a buyout from a pharmaceutical company might be imminent.  Unfortunately, the month by month delay of FDC to issue NCE (new chemical entity) status to $AMRN for its approved fish-oil drug continued to postpone any constructive offer (if any); as a result, together with the announcement that Amarin would launch the sales & marketing of the drug alone, price tumbled down to current level.

At the same time, I also do not want to miss any sudden announcement of any kind that will propel the stock to $20+ level without me.  I missed the $8+ gap-up on April 18, 2011 because I was trading it.  Now, with a possible buy-out still in the wind (or even a possible successful self-launch), I’m content to sit on my drawdown waiting for judgement day.

I’ve been trading $USU for many years and I really like $USU as this price level.  I thought it was a bargain of the century when I loaded up on it below $1.00.  Now, there is nothing for me to do with $USU except to wait for it to become relevant.  And I believe 2013 may be the year for uranium sector to shine.

$LRAD is another one of my long-term position hold, you can read my history of my $LRAD trade by clicking here.

While these three position trades (AMRN, USU, & LRAD) gave me a 15% drawdown in 2012, I believe that these three musketeers have the potential to make my portfolio multiply generously in 2013.

It is also my belief that ever since I start sharing my trading ideas and thought here, my swing trading performance has improved significantly.  It is as though there is an invisible coach watching over me which also increases my sense of responsibility to my trades.  Without a doubt, the main responsibility I’ve taken seriously is my cutting losses quickly.

Cutting my losses quickly in my swing trades is a major contribution to my getting a 24% return in 2012.  The other major contribution is my willingness to jump back into a trade after cutting my losses, even at a higher price.

Happy New Year to everyone and wish you all have a prosperous 2013!

Thank you all for reading and Trade well!

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Did you see that beautiful dragonfly?

That’s the dragonfly doji candlestick chart pattern I’m referring to in the SPY daily chart.

See the SPY daily chart below:


Here is the description of the Dragonfly Doji chart pattern:

Dragonfly Doji

The Dragonfly Doji is a significant bullish reversal candlestick pattern that mainly occurs at the bottom of downtrends.

Per this positive price action coming to the end of today, I bought back most of what I sold in the morning plus some.  I was able to buy DDD & SSYS as a discounted price.

I do not know how the fiscal cliff resolution will turn out this weekend but price action is telling me the bull is putting up a good fight against the bear today.

Trade well!

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After falling down, RIMM picked itself up and run again

That’s the spirit!

Go! Go!

I must say I’m impressed with RIMM running again today to the tune of 11.4% increase in price action.  Fortunately, I jumped back in during the morning spike.  After price action took out the Monday high of $10.98, it was a no brainer to buy back the stock.

Below is the 5 min chart of RIMM:


The rally continued all day with a minor roll-off by the end of the day.

If the momentum can keep up, I believe RIMM may rally back to the $14 price level to commensurate with the launch of BB10 phone by end of January, 2013, which is about a month away.

I may add more if price action took out the high of last Friday ($12.39).

With oil price spiked up today, I felt the market would eventually follow with rising prices (provided oil price would not give back today gain by end of this week).  Thus, I went into buying spree and bought back SZYM, CCJ, DNN, SGY, & KERX.

SZYM is a long-term position in my eyes and I just could not see myself not holding it.   Despite my concern with its volatility, I bit the bullet and bought back the stock.  Yeah, it went down afterward.  Mr. Market does not always make it easy for anyone.

I bought CCJ and DNN because I believed 2013 would be the year for uranium.

SGY is @RaginCajun pick and I like the look of the chart.

KERX is a Biotech gamble; albeit a small one since I’m currently loaded up on AMRN.

My current holding is now: LRAD AMRN USU SZYM EMAN RIMM DNN CCJ KERX SGY & 38% cash.

Trade well!

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Could not be more wrong!

Yesterday, I deduced our stock market would go up.  BAM! Wrong!

And that is the way it is.  Without the benefit of crystal ball, we are all subjected to the whim of the market mood and sentiment.   With fiscal cliff in sight, hope is lost.  Without hope, the market may lose the will to sustain the uptrend.

Price action has spoken.  SPY took a tumble and broke through the breakout line by a good margin.  Without hesitation, I dumped my swing trading positions pronto. I sold ES, GLOG, NOK, RIMM, SZYM, UCO, & WPRT without looking back.  Some of these position bounced back a bit after I dumped and some went further south.  Basically, I do not try to second guess my decisions after I’ve executed them because I know that by following price action, I should be “OK” on average .

Now is not the time to think, it is time to watch and see if this down day has leg or not.  While watching, I’ll prefer to stay on the sideline and sit on my hands.   Yes, I’m tempted to do some bargain hunting but I must respect the price momentum for the day.

Currently, SPY bounces off the support line created by the Dec 14th low and is now holding a green bar.  Yet, it is still a gap-down day.

Below is the SPY daily chart:


Can the Dec 14th support hold? Well, I don’t know so I will wait.

Meanwhile, I’m still holding my position plays (AMRN, LRAD, USU, and EMAN) and 60% cash.  I did not hold SZYM for position play because it has a tendency to drop like a rock without warning.  Oh well, so can many other stocks… but SZYM more so than others is my justification.

Trade well!

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My take: we are going up!

Am I the only one seeing this?  Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:


While the day is not over yet, but the up bar today is telling me that the market wants to go back up.  Notice that price action for the last three days stays above the breakout line.  As far as I’m concerned, the uptrend line from Nov-16 low is still strongly intact.

I’m currently long AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, GLOG, USU, UCO, EMAN, NOK, RIMM, WPRT, ES, & 18% cash.

Trade well!

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Profit-taking day

I sold my NOK position today to lock in profit.  Although I tried to daytrade afterward to see if I could capture the upward momentum if it continued.  I was stopped out and the daily chart was reflecting a doji which I was not excited to see.

Below is the daily NOK chart:


Potentially, today doji bar could become an island reversal pattern or an evening star reversal pattern.  I, for one, am not going to wait around to see if that is the case.  Thus, I’ve no problem locking in my profit and see where the wind blows tomorrow.

I also bought SSYS in the morning but decided to lock in profit due to a strong upward thrust all day.  Both DDD & SSYS are in the 2nd strong up bar and I do not want to sit through a correction tomorrow.  The thing about DDD & SSYS is that their volatility is legendary.  The speed of a reversal (up or down) is very FAST.  Hence, I’ve no problem again to lock in profit and see where the wind blows tomorrow as well.

Below is the 5 min. SSYS chart:


So far, a positive trading day today!

I’m now holding AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, GLOG, USU, EMAN, ES & 39% cash.

Yes, albeit my drawdown on AMRN, LRAD, & USU (all position play), I’m always striving to gain profit by swing-trading.

You can always see my trading activities here @followtheprice

Trade well!

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BREAKING: NOK Ascending Triangle Breakout Confirmed

“Wait a minute!” you said, “the day is not over yet!”

OK, I jumped the gun to declare a confirmed breakout.  Look at the daily chart below, do you see a strong breakout?


I don’t see how it will collapse by end of day.  There is strong support @ $4.00. Needless to day, I bought more today (once before the breakout and another batch after the breakout).  Now my position on NOK is full size. You can see my daily trading activities here @followtheprice

Below are my previous posts supporting NOK being a breakout target.

NOK- Imminent Ascending Triangle breakout?

Comeback story- Nokia

Trade well!

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NOK- Imminent Ascending Triangle breakout?

Alert! Alert! Possible breakout from NOK.  We are looking at a possible ascending triangle (continuation) breakout pattern.  Prices had been meandering around the $3.85-$3.88 area for the last half-hour and as an observer, I say it really wants to go up to take out the $3.90.

Will NOK be able to do that?  My bet is that we will see the breakout today.  Behold the price action when it does.

Below is the NOK daily chart about 5 minutes ago:


Below is the NOK weekly chart:


By looking at the charts, you can see where I’m coming from.

I bought back in @ $3.87.  Even though I dumped it yesterday, I’ve no qualm buying it back at higher price as long as I see a momentum for the upswing.  It is all about price action; not about where I’ve bought and sold before.

Trade well!

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The dreaded evening star at the Fib 61.8% resistance point

Oh no! Evening star at resistance point!  Run! Run! The sky is falling!

Ok, I may have exaggerated a bit on the “run, run” side of it; but seriously, you have to be cautious and on guard when you see this pattern at a key Fib resistance point.

Yesterday, I postulated that we could either have a breakout day or Fib resistance day.  Although I was leaning on the breakout day, hence my moving more cash to stock, the market showed its hand by not only confirming a resistance day but also giving us an evening star reversal pattern to boost.

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:


Did you see how today price closed below the 61.8% retracement?  Now, just because we have an evening star candlestick pattern doesn’t mean we are going down for sure tomorrow; but it does mean the probability of a down day is high.

The only good thing I see in the chart that “may” stop the down slide tomorrow is the support of the blue 79 simple moving average line.  If that support line holds, we may have a failed reversal.  On the other hand, the market could easily slice through the line like hot knife to warm butter.

In summary, tomorrow is cautious day.

Today, I got busy again.  Yesterday I got busy buying up stocks for possible breakout; today I got busy unloading stocks because I couldn’t find the breakout.  I dumped NOK (why did I choose NOK over RIMM when RIMM had been so good to me in Nov?), EXK, WPRT and reduced position size on GLOG & SZYM.  I sold DDD & SSYS for profit in the morning but ended up buying back DDD by end of trading day.

I also bought my way back in RIMM during the day so I could have an open position for possible more run on it.  I traded RIMM during the day and was able squeeze into a position with a net profit to cushion tomorrow price action.  You can see my daily trading activities here @followtheprice.

For those who are keeping track, AMRN & LRAD continues to drag my portfolio down.  Since these are position play, I usually ignore them during the day so they don’t interfere with my daily trading activities.

Now, I am holding only AMRN, LRAD, RIMM, USU, SZYM, DDD, EMAN, GLOG & 33% cash.

Depending on tomorrow price action, I may continue to raise cash as I see fit.

Trade well!

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