10-31-2014 Trading Journal

Boom!  Just like that, the bull was standing by the previous high… almost touching it.

From the weekly chart below, you can see that it took four weeks for the bear to bring it down to the 79 & 89 MA lines area; yet it took the bull only two weeks to get back up to near previous high.  Who is in charge?

The bull!

$NUGT gapped down from yesterday big dump which seemed to me was overdone.  So I decided to play the catch-the-falling-knife once more time by buying the opening range breakout.  I was looking for a possible island reversal bottom formation.  In mid-day when price began to rally again after dipping back below opening range, I added some more.  However, when closing bell was approaching, price began to sell off.  Giving this bearish closing momentum, I decided against holding over the weekend and sold out my position for small losses.

I also bought back $AMRN when the weekly script number went back to 9,4xx.  Last week it dipped down to 9,2xx from 9,4xx so it wasn’t very encouraging which probably explained the price drop.  But with script # going back up, there is a possibility of reaching 10,000 script in a couple of weeks.  I could see that I wasn’t the only one buying back in.

Price showed a bullish engulfment candlestick bar today so let’s see if it signifies a bottom here.

$DMRC finally corrected today which was a well-deserved one since price had been climbing non-stop the whole week.

However, I’m not crazy about the bearish engulfment bar today from the daily chart above.  But then, a bearish engulfment bar has to be confirmed next week by making lower low.  We will see if that is the case.  On the other hand, the weekly chart below shows a bit more bullish tone overall.

Take a look at the third week up bar in January. It also had a long tail on the top; however, price continued higher in the four week.  Will $DMRC repeat the same pattern next week?  We will see.

$ORBC had a good day as well as a good week.

Daily chart below:

Weekly chart below:

Price closed above $6 for the week after struggling all week to climb out of $5ish.  The weekly chart showed a successful basing on top of the 79 & 89 MA lines.  I think price is ready to rally from here.  Of course, it will be relying on catalyst from the upcoming earning report.

$LRAD spent all week being neutral.

So, I wasn’t surprised the week ended in a doji bar as you can see in the weekly chart above.  It is also depending on upcoming earning announcement to determine future direction.

I sold $STV today for small losses due to its inability to bounce in a bullish day.  I bought it for the bounce and I would not want to hold if it could not bounce.  This was purely a trading position so conviction played no part in my wanting to hold.

Due to correction from $DMRC, my port gave back 0.2% today.  YTD gain is now at 10.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN and 7.9% cash.

From my other account:

I bought back some $FITX today looking for a bounce.  $MCIG also rallied some today so the bounce is happening.

Both $FITX and $MCIG charts look bouncy from here.

My 2 cents.

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After an initial dip into the water, the bull marched back up the hill with the hill top within sight.

The uptrend is quite convincing at this point.  Price is approaching the recent high and we may even make new high next week if the momentum continues.

I made a new trade today by adding $STV with a starter position to my port..  I’m expecting a rally from here to mid-Nov before earning report.

Price “tried” to rally but frizzled out.  Since it is still supported by the 89 MA line, I like to see it rally next week.

$DMRC continued to impress by closing positive again.

I see more positive development going into November.  Digimarc will be showing their Mobile Payment Solution at the Money 20/20 Conference in Las Vegas next week.  Let’s see if they can make a splash with their technology.  Any positive acceptance to their mobile solution will add another major revenue stream alongside their Digimarc barcode system.  This will create a significant upside in price movement for $DMRC.  Of course, there are a lot of “IF” here and there.  But I’ve my chips on the table for the bet.

$LRAD did not partake into today general market rally.  It corrected a bit instead.

There is really nothing to do but wait for earning report and news on the Middle East mass notification sales.

$ORBC had an impressive come back after an initial drop at the open.  Due to my strong conviction, the morning drop did not faze me.  I wished I could say the same for $GALE which obviously rallied on after shaking me out.

Price has now reached back to the 79 & 89 MA lines.  Perhaps tomorrow or next week, it will rally on ahead to $7.

Due to $LRAD correction, gains from $DMRC and $ORBC were reduced to only 0.4% for the day.  YTD gain is now at 11.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, STV and 13% cash.

From my other account:

$MCIG finally bounced today as I’d expected.

I like to see price bounces from here.

My 2 cents.

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The bull had a bad hiccup but recovered later in the day.

Price bounced off the 5 MA line and closed only a bit lower than yesterday which is actually a good sign considered that there would be no more QE.

Today, I was literally shaken off my position on $GALE.  Seeing price fell off all of a sudden to low $2 from $2.07, I started to unload my position ’cause I didn’t have a lot of conviction on this one.  I also began to see the recent bounce as a possible ABC correction pattern if the breakout to the upside didn’t work out.  Seeing that Monday is the earning day, I decided it was too risky to hold at this point.  As usual, after I was out, price jumped right back up and even closed higher for the day.  This is what happen when you don’t have conviction on a stock.  With the conviction I’ve for $LRAD, $DMRC, and $ORBC, the short-term trading volatility does not faze me at all.  One way to explain it is that my conviction has grown root into my mindset such that it is as strong as a tree with root in the ground.

$AMRN is like a tree that has been blown off the ground by tornado so many times that it no longer has strong root.  Thus, any slight disagreement with the price direction can trigger my mental stop loss quite easily.  With price dropped to near 0.9 even, I unloaded $AMRN to take small losses.

$NUGT was a no brainer in cutting losses when price dropped like a rock after spiking up to $19.4x. I cut my losses when I realized $18 was not going to hold.

$DMRC showed strength when it was able to counter the sell off to close higher for the day.

In its subtle way, it actually had a higher high and a higher low for the day.

$LRAD had a slightly lower closing.

Nevertheless, price is still above the 5 MA line.

Due to losses from $AMRN, $NUGT, and $GALE, my port gave back 0.7% today with YTD gain at 10.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC and 15.6% cash.

From my other account:

I’m still holding $MCIG despite another smaller drop today.

From the chart, It may bounce from here due to a smaller range day and lower volume.

My 2 cents.

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After getting out of the mud, the bull jumped into the river and swam pass the 79 & 89 markers into the bull territory.  The bull has come back home.

Price has convincingly crossed the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside which is a strong bullish sign.

Today, I bought back $AMRN, $NUGT, and $GALE.

I like $GALE here due to a possible breakout pattern from the daily chart.

From the chart, you can see that price has broken out of the $2 resistance today. I’m sensing a momentum coming to take the price higher.  It is possible we may see $2.5 and $3 in the near future.  However, the potential upside is very depending on the upcoming earnings report on November 3rd.  I’m going to do some research to determine if I want to hold this one thru earnings.

I bought back $AMRN expecting a bounce.  I’m also committed to have some position in this stock just in case of any positive catalyst to pop this one back up.  And I want to be in the stock when it happens.  I’ve invested too much time, money, and heart-break to see this one take off without me.  So, even though I might have sold to cut losses, I’ll always find a point to buy back.

$NUGT is a stock that I’m trying to catch the bottom by jumping in and out to avoid getting suck into the black hole.  I do not want to forget it and then one day see it takes off like a rocket without me on board.  I don’t mind the multiple small losses I’m racking up ’cause once I’ve caught the bottom, this one will bring in more $ than the small losses I’m taking now.

$DMRC continued to march ahead.  The shorts had its fun so now it is the bull’s turn to drive the price higher.  This uptrend reminds me of the January uptrend which started from $20 and moved all the way to $36 without much of a correction.  Could $DMRC repeat this feat and beat the January price range by making new high?

With more retailers joining the Digimarc barcode system, price could simply keep going up without stopping.  If their mobile payment solution has any leg, watch out.  This one can become huge.  Perhaps, it will make up for my missing the $LNG trade.

$LRAD is moving cautiously.

At least, it is moving in the right direction.

$ORBC finally got some good news to halt the falling price.  Today it announced win of 16,000 units order from one of the nation’s largest retail fleet.  I believe this is just the beginning of a migration.  With the eleven new state-of-the-art satellites to be launched soon, more and more businesses will sign up is my take of it.

Finally a green bar to stop the falling reds.

Almost forgot to mention that I sold $XONE near $25 to lock in gain ’cause of its potential resistance at $25ish.

Thanks to $DMRC and $LRAD (my two largest position), my port gained another 2.3% today with YTD gain at 11.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, GALE, AMRN, NUGT and 5% cash.

From my other account:

Still holding $MCIG despite another down day…

My 2 cents.

 

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Today was a stuck-in-mud day for the bull.

The good news is that price is still inside the 79 & 89 MA lines and above the 5 MA line.   There is still no sign of the bear nearby despite being stuck.

Today, only one turned red in my port.  I also bought a starter position on $XONE.  I’d been eyeing this one for awhile and decided today would be the good day to go in.

Price was barely above the 5 MA line when I bought and I like the fact that price was staying above the 5 MA line during the morning time when the market was in negative territory.  It was a good buy since my position is in solid green by closing bell.

$DMRC continued to march ahead.

After an initial dip, buyers came back in to drive the price back up.  Just as easy as the short had walked the price down, the bull is walking the price back up.

$LRAD spent the day maintaining its range above the 79 & 89 MA lines while waiting for the coming earnings result.

While price hasn’t shot up yet, everything in the chart tells me something is about to happen soon.

$ORBC continued to disappoint by having another down day.

I’m curious about the coming earning result. Did they pick up more customers from the new six satellites they recently launched?  We will have to wait and see; but I’m confident the fundamental behind $ORBC will be in solid ground in 2015 and beyond.

Thanks to $DMRC continuing strong rally, my port gained another 0.6% today with YTD gain at 9.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, XONE and 13.9% cash.

From my other account:

$MCIG had a correction today.

I’m still holding ’cause I like the fundamental behind Vitacig.

My 2 cents.

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“Bear market?  What bear market?”

And the bull kept on going, going, and going.  The above is the weekly chart. A very powerful green bar coming off the high volume hammer-like candlestick from previous week.  It isn’t that far from previous high, you know.

Today was a learn to trust your “instinct” lesson in the disguise of the $AMRN trade.  Early this week, I sold my whole position of $AMRN for a gain (instinct) and watched the price spiked back up to $1.10 before price settled back down.  Seeing that price wanted to go up, I was anxious (lesson: anxious is definitely NOT instinct) to buy it back the next day (which was yesterday). Seeing that price was holding at $1.05 at the open and that there a large bid supporting the price, I added some more this morning.  Then I went on my merry way.

“Whoa!” was all I could muster when I came back to look at the price after being away for awhile.  Price was printing $0.97 cents when I checked on $AMRN.  Without hesitation, I immediately liquidated my entire positions to cut losses.  The daily chart looked ugly:

As you could see, price cut thru the support of the whole week (new low for the week) and the volume was very high.  Somebody knew something and was dumping en mass.  If there is follow-thru next week with a new low, this could get even more ugly.  I’m going to see how low this will go before picking bottom.

Asides from cutting losses with $AMRN, I again went back in $NUGT but with a smaller position.  This time I decided to do away with the hard stop and opted for a mental stop.  The smaller shares allow more room for this stock to fluctuate around.  By closing bell, I’m still at breakeven from this morning entry.

Meanwhile, $DMRC continued to march ahead.

The weekly bar above reflected a turning point.  What I like about the chart is that price is now on top of 79 & 89 MA lines.  Looking back to January, you could see four consecutive up bar after the 1st up bar.  Will $DMRC repeat this pattern?

$LRAD, while it did not have the same “punch-out” pattern of $DMRC’s weekly bars, it showed a resiliency to hold the fort.

At least, it was a green bar above the middle of the Andrew Pitchfork line which could be a preparation for a coming bounce.

$ORBC is an example of what I prefer not to see.

It is a weekly red bar that showed it gave back gain from last week. However, the good news is that price is still above the 79 & 89 MA lines.

Due to losses from $AMRN, the gain to my port for the day was reduced to 0.2% despite a good showing with $DMRC rally.  YTD gain is now at 8.5%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, NUGT and 14.7% cash.

From my other account:

$MCIG weekly chart showed that it is holding steady here.

In other words, price is still basing here and have not made any move to the upside yet.

My 2 cents.

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After a good rest, the bull marched onward.

Price is now above the 89 MA line.  It needs to go higher to take out the 79 MA line.

Today, I bought back $AMRN but missed $INFN. I did not want to chase a higher open ($INFN) and had waited for a retracement that never came.

However, my two largest positions were doing fantastic- $LRAD and $DMRC.

Below is the $DMRC daily chart:

Price finally broke out of resistance that began in early August.  By doing so, price also took out the 79 & 89 MA lines.  Chart looks very good for a continuing rally from here.

$LRAD also took off from support.

Price bounced off from the 79 & 89 MA lines and took out the 15 MA line as well.  All is waiting for the large order of the mass notification system from one or two of the Middle East cities.  When good news come, this one will pop hard.

What can I say, I missed this beautiful gap up $INFN trade.

By not chasing it in the morning, I missed the follow-thru run.  Instead I went to buy $NUGT again and got stopped out.  Thinking back, the risk of chasing $INFN may be less risky than catching a falling knife on $NUGT.  I need to remember this lesson next time.

$ORBC was disappointing today ’cause it went down.  $AMRN was practically breakeven although it dropped slightly.

Thanks to $LRAD and $DMRC, my port gained back 3.7% today with YTD gain at 8.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN and 9.8% cash.

From my other account:

I added a bit more $MCIG.

Price is beginning to form a bottom with an inclination to move higher.

My 2 cents.

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The bull bumped its head on the 89 MA line and fell back down.

After three days of continuing up day, it’s about time to take a much needed rest.

Meanwhile I made two “not too keen” decisions.  I sold out of $AMRN and $INFN after the market opened.  I got a bad feeling about the market and felt that I needed to raise some cash.  I started off selling only 50% of $AMRN but ended up selling the whole load.  With $INFN, I researched market reaction to its previous earning calls and found out that more than 50% of the time, the price ended up reacting negative afterward.  Thus, I decided to play safe and sold at the open to avoid the risk.  My previous experience in giving back a sizeable gain from $CERS earning announcement is still fresh in my mind.  Another factor that made it easy for me to close out $INFN position is that I’ve not invested enough due diligence to understand its business the way I’d done with $LRAD, $DMRC, and $ORBC.

As if I was being punished, $AMRN spiked up to $1.10 after I sold and $INFN forward guidance resulted in higher price in after hour.  Oh well… I can’t hit the jackpot every time.  I may try to buy back in $INFN or $AMRN tomorrow.

I’m very satisfied with $DMRC progress per the earning conference call.  Regardless of price action either way, I’m holding my shares.  In a nutshell, one retailer is already in “production” with their Digimarc barcode and they are getting more retailers and major brands knocking on their door.  Their induction into GS1 partnership definitely helps grease the wheels so to speak.  If you need more information, you can read it from here.

Oh yeah, I doubled-down again on $NUGT with a tight stop and it was hit along with my original stop as well.  Basically, I’m now flat on $NUGT.  What more can I say?  This bottom fishing did not work out.

With more cash available, I couldn’t help but added a bit more to $LRAD.

With all stocks down today, my port gave back 2.5% with YTD gain at 4.6%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, and 17.7% cash.

From my other account:

I was tempted to add more $MCIG but decided against it.  It was struggling today but still closed decently.

Daily chart still shows a potential to bounce from here.

My 2 cents.

 

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Whoof!  The sudden movement went right pass your eyes and you could barely made out the shadow.  The gust of wind smashed your face with such force you had to find out what was moving so fast.  You took out your binocular and saw the horn of the bull before it disappeared into the horizon.

Up, up and away. And the bear finally lost its grasp…

Today, $LRAD, $DMRC, and $INFN went along with the general market.

$DMRC cautiously closed higher.

Price is at a very critical crossroad.  It is only a stone throw of crossing over the 79 & 89 MA lines. These MA lines are also happened to be at the resistance line of $25.4x that began all the way from early August.  Thus, a break out from here will signify a powerful rally ahead.  If not, it will fall back down.  Tomorrow after market close is the time when the fat lady sings.

$INFN also closed higher.

The bounce is strong but price is now at the Fib 61.8% retracement from the recent down trend.  $INFN is also reporting tomorrow after hour.  The prospect of getting two surprises tomorrow makes it a special event day- one that will impact my port one way or the other.  I’m leaning on the positive side, of course.

I got slapped by $NUGT today.  Price went higher after open and I double-down expecting it to hold steady or go up.  Instead it came back down to hit my stop for the new add.  At the close, I’m still holding my original position with the GTC hard stop still intact.

Anyhow, thanks to the three positive closings, my port gains another 1.4% with YTD gain at 7.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN, INFN, NUGT, and 2.8% cash.

From my other account:

I decided to buy $MCIG as my way to get back into the cannabis/eCig sector.  I like $MCIG for both technical and fundamental reason.  Fundamentally speaking, mCig announced it has executed a landmark distribution agreement for VitaCig covering South Korea.  To me, this is very big in term of getting a strong push in promoting its VitaCig ecigeratte. Per news release, this may be the first of the many international deals in the near future.  I’ve reason to believe mCig may eventually become a main stream player with its popular VitiCig.  Why do I say that?

Well, I actually ordered the Viticig and gave it a try.

I couldn’t believe the amount of vapor (look like smoke) I could blow out from the tiny eCig.  I shared it to others and they all loved it.  And not only that, the price is quite right ’cause it is very affordable.  So, with proper marketing, VitiCig can hit the mother lode.

Technical speaking, the bounce today with high volume is a good sign that a bottom is settling in.

See how the 5 MA is turning up as well as the momentum indicators.

My 2 cents.

 

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The bull made another push against the bear and gained another foot of movement…

At least, the bull now emerged out of the rectangular box.  Now it needs to overcome the resistance from the previous low established back in August.  We will know tomorrow if this resistance can be broken to the upside.  If not, back to the box it will be.

Today was almost a neutral day for my port with two slightly down ($LRAD, $DMRC), three up ($ORBC, $INFN, $NUGT), and one even ($AMRN).

I was fortunate that my $NUGT did not get stopped out at the open.  In fact, price opened higher and spent the rest of the day continued upward.

From the daily chart above, the rally today only put the price back into the consolidation range.  In other words, price is still basing and there is no inclination of a breakout just yet.  However, notice that the 5 and 15 MA lines are now converging and it is possible that another up day will make the 5 to cross over the 15.  Thus, if there is another up day tomorrow, I may add to the $NUGT position.

$INFN rallied nicely to maintain a bullish stance.

Notice that the 5 has crossed over the 15.  Price action looks good for a continuing rally.

$LRAD managed to rally back to close at “almost” breakeven.

Notice that price is still hanging around the 79 & 89 MA lines.  I’m still very bullish with this one and anyone who sold has allowed the short-term traders to influence their conviction of the trade.  Not me, I’m hanging on to all my shares waiting for the big rally that is still simmering underneath the earth waiting to explode.

$DMRC’s judgement day may be this Wednesday.  Will the earnings call reveal the big retailer(s) who is/are testing the Digimarc barcode?  If so, do they love it?  Any positive news will move the price higher; however, another “we are not allow to disclose the name of the retailer yet” update will stall the advance unless it is qualified with a comment that they like what they’ve seen so far.

Thanks to $NUGT, $ORBC, and $INFN, my port gained 0.3% today with YTD gain at 5.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN, INFN, NUGT, and 3.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

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