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Monthly Archives: August 2012

Is this AAPL ripe enough for sale?

Yes, I was stopped out of my previous AAPL short (bought put option) with a loss; but I’ve been patiently waiting for the next sell signal to come in.  Today, I have it.

Below is the daily AAPL chart.  Notice that the BW’s bearish divergent bar was formed yesterday; and today, price action took out yesterday low which is a signal for me to sell.  Also, there is also a possible development of an evening star candlestick pattern which is bearish.

Below is the 15m AAPL chart.  Notice the solid down trend in the last 2 days.

Now, AAPL may recover from here.  So don’t listen to me since I’ve been wrong often.  But I bought some AAPL put to try my luck.

Don’t forget to trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!


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Is it time for uranium stocks to swing higher?

I believe CCJ is on the recovering mode and may be heading back up to stardom pretty soon.

The daily CCJ chart below showed that downtrend pitchfork (white color) has been broken and is on track staying with the uptrend pitchfork (purple color).  Today up bar looks strong and I like to see it close above the 89 ema.

Below is the hourly CCJ chart.  Notice that it took out the multiple pivot high of the previous downtrend.

Below is the weekly CCJ chart.  Look like an upward basing slope is forming.

Today, I invested 13% in uranium based stocks that included CCJ, DNN, and USU.

Oh… this is for my trading journal.  Don’t listen to me since I will dump the uranium stocks without blinking if I see a major market correction coming.

Don’t forget to trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!

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Is the sleeping bull going to roll off the bed?

Come on already! We have a head-fake this morning.  A gap up with no meat.  Price has been meandering all morning inside the half-hour opening range.  Now, as I am typing the post, price finally broke below the bottom of the opening range.

A gap up that failed, to me, is a bear waiting to wreak havoc.  Let’s see if this bull can shake off its sleepiness and get on with the rally.  I believe we should have an answer in a day or two.  Can the Presidential rally overcome the Summer August sell-off?  Based on the last 6 days of small range bars, my take is that there is no guarantee the bull has a higher probability than the bear.  If this is going to be a bear, I’ll be waiting.

Below is the daily SPY chart.  Notice that today is a red color bar.  And it looks like it is going to close below the previous high made in August 7th.  Will there be a late rally to turn this into a green bar?  If there is, I’ll be impressed and will stay off the TZA hit button.  If not, my opinion is that the probability of a bear raid happening will increase ever so slightly.

Well, that is my take after almost falling asleep from watching the SPY movement.  You should know better than to listen to me for I’ve a record of being wrong half-of-the-time.  It is risk management that save my ass time after time; therefore, trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!


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This week has more green than red

Look at the SPY daily chart below.  This week is now officially a consolidation week since we have 5 days of small range day.  And out of this 5 days; we have 4 green bars versus 1 red bar.  Therefore, from a probability standpoint, the market wants to go up or has the propensity to go up.  Thus, I’m backing off from using TZA to shoot for correction that may not come in this time frame.

Nevertheless, this week established a trading range b/w Monday low ($139.56) and Tuesday high ($140.92).  If the low of $139.56 is taking out next week, my bet is that the correction will be more prevalent than before since more time was spent on consolidation this week.  The longer the consolidation period, the more persistent is the breakout. But for now, price action looks like it may go higher.

Below is the daily SPY chart:

Below is the daily SPY chart with a longer time frame so you can see how I drew the Pitchfork.

Currently 82% 76%  71% cash with some AMRN and LT-equity position. Also bought back WYNN.  I also bought LVS.

Good Hunting!


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A short diary of my successful morning trade (with new annotation on action points)

I had an exceptional morning today  This was the kind of morning or trading event that I am always waiting for but don’t always come often.  It can be compared to getting a four of a kind in a poker hand that occasionally comes to your weekly poker night.  Nevertheless, this morning was the kind of morning that justified all the tiny losses I took searching for that elusive run.

“Oh boy, it is gonna be another gap up day against me!” so I thought to myself.  I had an open TZA position this morning and S&P500 was printing 4+ last night in night trading.  So, I was expecting another gap down loss against me.

I was lucky. S&P500 e-mini was printing -2.00 before market opened.

Not to throw away such an opportunity to redeem myself, I was prepared to exit my TZA position if the market’s open showed any strength at all.  But this morning wasn’t about my TZA position; it was about the “wrong pick” I declared 6 days ago regarding  AMRN.  Ever since I got stop-out of AMRN last week, I had been watching every day to look for price action to give me another opportunity to jump back in.  I believe this was the morning.

Price action on AMRN before market open was printing 11.70+.

“This is it!” I exclaimed.  Because price action took out the high two days ago and was looking to take out yesterday high by a few mere ticks, I knew I had to jump back in.

Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!” my computer generated the opening bell sound and TZA was struggling to maintain its positive position in the 1st 5 minutes. (Yes, I counted 5 dings!)

Fuck it! I’m getting out for my lunch money!”  I put the market order to close out my TZA trade without thinking much of it ’cause my attention was on AMRN.

AMRN was printing b/w $11.71 and $11.80 and the action was furious.  I put in market order to pick up my starter position.  My order was filled in the first 5 minutes with prices as high as $11.99.  But price action did not stop there.  One blink of my eye and AMRN was printing $12.03!

Holy Molly!  This baby is firing up!”  I put another order to buy a 2nd tier of my starter position.  Basically, I was doubling up.  My order got filled around $12.05.  (Usually I don’t double-up just like that but this morning AMRN price actions was unusually robust.  Perhaps it was my intuition or perhaps you would have sensed it too if you were watching the price action; but there were no denying that existence of an underlying current pushing AMRN price up.  Thus, my buying the 2nd tier was not even a struggle; it was a natural flow of action that came to me instinctively.)

Holly Shit!”  AMRN then began to correct a bit by trading below $12.00 and bounced around $11.94 for a couple of minutes.   I knew the price action was too strong for it to tank back to base ground so I sat and watched.  As predicted, price began to take out the high of the 2nd (5 min) bar and trekked higher.

This bull run is strong!”  I said to myself.  Then on the 4th bar, price action took out the high of the 3rd bar.

I’ve got to buy more!”  I put in another market order for the 3rd tier position and got filled around $12.32. (The fact that the 3rd bar and 4th bar took out each previous bar high so convincingly was to me a true panicky buying spree.  I was sensing a short squeeze so I felt the urge to press on the squeeze as well; hence my buying of the 3rd tier. )

Now, I was fully aware of the profit-taking that might be coming soon but the momentum was so strong I could feel the buyers fighting to get in thru the narrow door.  So, I didn’t hesitate to add on more.  Price action again took out the high of the 4th bar and kept on moving up.  By the time price was printing $12.75, I decided to buy another small position to add on.  By then, I had 3x of my starter position and my gain was printing very nice big fat green numbers. (My buying a small position at $12.75 was to setup a psychologically trigger point for me.  I was very well aware that in a frantic day like today, I could get lost in the “rush” of event that I might forget myself.  I will explain more about this trigger point below.)

The 5th bar was parabolic!  It just kept on going higher.  When the 6th bar took out the high of the 5th bar and printed $13+, I was beyond myself.  But this was not the time to pop champagne and celebrate; this was the time to watch for the coming profit-taking.  Then it happened, a perfect shooting star pattern developed right at the end of the 6th bar.

Remember, I was still high on the rush and did not want to believe the momentum might be over.  The prudent thing to do then was to honor the shooting star pattern and took profit at the market.  Instead, I hesitated until price printed down to $12.75 which was my last filled price on the small add-on.  By then, it was a matter of keeping my profit or risk giving it all back.  I put in market order to sell 3/4 of my position and was filled b/w  $12.64 and $12.73.  Not bad for a morning hunt!  (Here it is, because of the $12.75 trigger point, I was shaken out of my emotional attachment to the momentum.  I’m sure some of you are aware how powerful this rush could be and how any prolonged hesitation could cost you dearly due to fast price action.  I set the $12.75 price action to remind me not to let current price action to fall below this price level.  One thing I learned to do from the years of trials and tribulations in the trading arena is to develop a habit in hating to see price action drop below “any” of my buy points.  This emotional event would kick me from behind to over-ride my current emotional attachment- either greed or fear.  When price fell below $12.75, I knew I had to get out and I did.  While hindsight showed price action eventually climbed back over $13+; it was not relevant “at the time” since it was not a fact that price would climb back up at the time.  We could only deal with what we know “at the time” and take proper action at the time. If price action was to climb back up after i sold, it would be another trade which I showed below.)

Then I watched.  I wanted to buy AMRN back when the profit-taking was done and be gone with.  But price action wouldn’t print lower than $12.54 and began to slowly ascend upward.  I knew then I had to jump back in if I still want to carry this trade for a longer term.  Without hesitation, I bought back the shares I sold earlier for an average price of $12.67. (I have a soft spot for the fundamental story behind AMRN.  I want AMRN to succeed so I can take this natural fish oil (albeit with high potency) rather than the Statins alternative.  I also believe I’m not the only one who wanted AMRN to succeed as a healthy alternative to Statins.  That why I want to own AMRN but only if price action would support this ownership. Yes, I’m also aware that the drug trials were based on using AMRN fish oil in conjunction with the Statins drug.  For me personally, I would take AMRN fish oil without the Statins when it is available.)

Now, with price printing $13.22 $12.95 or some; I think my wrong pick did very well for me!

Below is the 5 min AMRN chart with some annotation of what I did.

Thanks to AMRN today, my YTD gain now reached over 20%.  I was at 20% before but last Friday gap down on TZA took me back down below 20%.

(I was inspired to write with more descriptive details on my trading activities after reading some of the great works by contributors here so I decide to give it a try.  After some review of this original post, I thought it would be more helpful if I also included the reasons why I took certain action in the post.  This self-analysis will serve to reinforce my own actions and help me to evolve as a trader.

Thanks for reading if you are reading it again.)

Good Hunting!

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Peek-a-boo! Hey, where is the bear?

All morning, the bear has been playing Peek-a-boo with us.  Is this for real or what?

Regardless, we have a mini-downtrend on a 15 min chart.  Price  is finding support at the 79 sma line.  For this bear to take traction, we need to see price take out the symmetrical triangle and  falls below the 89 ema.

Either we have another small range neutral day or a breakout to either up or down.  We will find out soon enough since we are at the time-of-day that some major decisions are being made by big money.

Below is the 15m SPY chart.  I updated the chart below after the close.  Look like there is a small bias to the bull since price action peeks out of the symmetrical triangle.  To me, it is still neutral and anything can happen tomorrow.

I bought back some TZA that was stopped out this morning at breakeven for another go.  I’ve a tight stop this time.

I still have my TZA position after the close since my stops did not hit.

Good Hunting!

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Let’s try one more time! This time, we watch for the shooting star!

The shooting star candlestick pattern is what I’m talking about.

What we have here is a possible mini- confirmed shooting star reversal pattern.  Again, this is not a sure thing but merely suggesting a possibility.

With another possible reversal pattern (my speculation only) on the general market, I took profit on my WYNN while it was still trading above $103+ and will look to buy it back at cheaper price if I can.

Below is the daily SPY chart.  Perhaps, this time the correction will happen?

Of course, I bought starter position on TZA once again.  No SKF this time since it doesn’t move that much compared to TZA.  And I also short AAPL with put options.  I think AAPL is ripe for short right now.  Technically speaking, AAPL has a Bill William’s Bearish divergent bar today so I went ahead and short it now instead of waiting for tomorrow to take out today low.

Good Hunting!

ps.  Forgot to mention that I also sold my AIG I bought back this morning due to the development of a Doji bar.  I don’t like Doji bar at the top…

Currently I only have TZA and my LT equity with 85% cash.

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Anybody wants to WYNN?

I do! I do!

This may be a long-term play for me since I’m buying this based on the weekly chart.

From the weekly WYNN chart below, you can see the Bill William’s divergent bar last Friday.  It is beautifully sitting on a 50% retracement b/w March 2009 low and July 2011 high.  Today price action convincingly took out the divergent bar high and took off furiously.  If this stock market rally has any leg and last week employment is the start of a recovery, WYNN will become a big WIN.  Hence my starting a collection of WYNN stock right now.  Will buy more if price action keep on taking out the next daily fractal buy signal.

Good Hunting!

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Another Doji + correction pattern?

If SPY closes near $139.72 SPY closed today @ $139.63, therefore we have a confirmed small range Doji.  This is not good for the bull since it increases the probability of a development of another evening star candlestick pattern.

I’m taking my chance that this Doji in development is a bad omen for the bull.  I bought starter position on TZA and SKF once again.

Take a look at SPY daily chart below.  Notice that each of the correction started with a small range bar (some of them doji).  Will today be another preparation for the next leg of correction?

I placed my bet.  Let’s see if it will pay off tomorrow.  Again, I’m used to being wrong and my stops are in place.

Believe it or not, I got stopped out of my AIG, SLW, and possible EXK (still waiting) already due to my stops placement being under the 79 sma & 89 ema in my 5 minutes charts.  I don’t like to hold my position if the daily momentum is gone by close of day.

Thus, my inclination to buy TZA and SKF for tomorrow gamble.

Good Hunting!



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Do we have an inflationary bull market?

Was anyone surprise I was stopped out on AMRN?  You shouldn’t.  I told you already that it was a wrong pick.  Good thing I sold some shares in the morning to reduce my exposure; thus, my actual losses were actually less than my expected losses when my stops were hit.  As in The Fly’s favorite expression- even though I lost, I won because my loss was smaller than expected.

With the bull still “floating” up, my guess is that this is an inflationary bull run.  And what do you do when you make conjecture about inflation?  You walk the talk and buy some gold or silver.  I chose the latter and bought EXK and SLW for starter positions.  Oh yes, the charts for EXK and SLW look great!

Another one I like today is AIG.


Yes, it is purely a charting decision.  I love the chart layout and the stock symbol “happens” to be AIG.

See for yourself in the charts below:

Below is the daily AIG chart:  Notice that price action today took out the highs of last week and is now trading above both the 79 sma and the 89 ema which to me is a big plus.   Notice that the oscillator also turned up.

Below is the weekly AIG chart: In this case, I see a “cup & handle pattern”.  Do you?  Well, it really doesn’t matter whether you see it or not.  What is important is that I “see” it.  It is my trade after all.

Hey, I feel pretty good about this AIG trade as well as the EXK trade (which is also The Fly’s trade).  But as you all know, I’ve been proven to be wrong often times; therefore, my stops are always around to protect myself regardless how I feel about this trade.

Below is the daily EXK chart:  Notice that price action took out the high of last Thursday and Friday with the oscillator turning up.  There is also a divergence b/w price and oscillator; with the price flat line on support while the oscillator is trending up from below the zero line.  These are all I need to see to give me the confidence to take the trade.  However, I’m very well aware that price actions are still below the 79 sma & 89 ema; therefore, I’ll be quick to get out of Dodge in this one.

Good Hunting!

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