Every serious trader mixes their own special ‘contextual’ sauce to guide their trading. And while most people monitor the NYSE TICK, they use it about the same–looking at how the TICK trends intra-day and roughly eyeballing where extreme readings occur. The simpletons like to perk up when the +/-1000 line is crossed because their minds are filled with lust for round numbers.
Also, most TICK observers use a calculation slightly different than mine. In fact, so many users of my premium data feed wanted to be like everyone else that the company catered to them. Per IQ Feed:
Available by customer request, we’ve added a new NYSE ONLY NET TICK: symbol JTYT.Z to DTN.IQ/IQFEED.
This new symbol:
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Only includes NYSE Exchange trades (excludes regional exchange trades)
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Trends the same as our NYSE NET TICK indicator
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Shows higher highs and lower lows
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Crosses +1000 or -1000 more often
You have to imagine how happy this made me, to know people wanted a more crude, less encompassing TICK. Yes, please leave the quality TICK just for me!
Anyhow, I take 5 years of TICK data and run a 3rd sigma study on it. This tells me the specific levels that are truly extreme events, TICKs bigger than 99.7% of all other ticks. When one of these rare events hits, I have a rather jolting audio alert that resonates throughout my entire office.
Leading into the rally, in the final throws of balance, we had two extreme low ticks. The second one marked the low nearly to the minute. BEHOLD:
Take a look at where those TICK BOMBS hit on the NASDAQ futures:
Doing your own research, with quality raw data, is how you build an edge in the market. This is how I go about creating a new trade for my repertoire.
Pretty cool stuff right? Perhaps you’re starting to understand the process of becoming an objective trader yes yes? I hope so.
Several Exodus users are competent and operate the system to extract actionable stocks. They also engage the macro timing algorithm like it is second nature. Other members, mostly noobs, need to be shown the basics.
That is why they sent me. I am the expert. Please do not envision me like a savant—naturally gifted in the fields of software, stocked markets, and statistical analysis. Running Exodus is not rocket science, though it was developed by a Space Alien Magician. It is simple to operate. Let’s go top down and find actionable stocks right now, shall we?
Step 1: Decide The Relevant Time Frame
You need to think about how far into the past you want your data to go. I want to see which sectors are outperforming since the start of earnings season, which was about 2-weeks ago.
BEHOLD: 2-WEEK SECTOR PERFORMANCE (save all applause until the end)
Nothing really stands out, nothing except the haymaker Basic Materials landed square on the scrotum of bearshitters. Goodness, look at that thing. Now comes my bias, and this is the part where I tailor the results for my needs, and why you need to become self sufficient at this simple form of analysis. I do not want or need a Basic Materials stock in my portfolio. So I will instead dig into the second best performer, our good friend Healthcare.
Step 2: Enter the Armory And Choose a Weapon
Armed with the sector intelligence we gathered above, we now head into The Grid. The Grid is the biggest page inside Exodus and is loaded with tools you can use to hone in on winners. The whole Sell in May thing has me cautious. Therefore I am picking the Free Cash Flow model portfolio as my weapon. It is loaded with fundamental filters by the Le Fly himself. Great screen when you want to find companies whose operations were sound over a trailing 12-month period, in hopes their operations will continue to funnel cash into the company, thus fending off any liquidity issues should credit start to tighten.
I refuse to write out all the steps I take to soup up the Free Cash Flow screen to find actionable stocks. If you are serious about using Exodus set up a 15-minute phone call with me by calling 800-863-7110, emailing [email protected], sending me a DM on Twitter @IndexModel, or ping me on SnapChat [VCali]. Exodus members can access the screen by clicking here.
However, for the unwashed, if you’ve stuck around with your hat out, bedraggled and smelling of cheese, waiting for PICKS, I have your picks.
BEHOLD: THE STOCKS GENERATED BY Exodus MARKET INTELLIGENCE
From the list I like GMED the best, then MNK ::takes bow, basks in applause::
Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:05pm ESTComments Off on Subtle Savagery from The Basics
Breath is 50/50 today, according to Exodus. But while stocks churn out a wishy-washy performance, their is a fortuitous bid in the Basic Materials sector:
Inside the sector, silver is leading the race by a long shot; the industry is currently up over 8% TODAY. The race for second is a close one, with gold neck-and-neck with a few oil industries:
Naturally, this is propelling shares of JOY higher.
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:18pm ESTComments Off on Try Exodus Before The World Ends
According to an alien at the Paramus Holiday Inn, the world is going to end on February 14th, 2016. Do you really want to die knowing you never tried the Exodus Market Intelligence Platform? You have until midnight New Jersey time to sign up for a free trial. Use this link…before it’s too LATE:
Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:25am ESTComments Off on I Can Help If You Let Me
If you signed up for Exodus, the world’s most powerful market intelligence platform, and you want to completely understand the software then sign up for a live demo.
I will walk you through the features and answer any questions you have. iBankCoin offers my services to you as part of your membership. These live demonstrations take place over the phone and usually last about 30 minutes.
You already invested in yourself by signing up for Exodus. Let us help you be successful. I am a nice guy. If you have a one-off question, ask it in the comment section below, on Twitter @IndexModel, or on Snapchat at VCali.
The below excerpt comes from this week’s Exodus Strategy Session. After receiving a several questions both on Snapchat [VCali] and the blog, I wanted to hopefully give color on how I use the report.
The Strategy Session is a report delivered weekly to Exodus members. Every Sunday I recap the prior week’s action and establish context for the upcoming week including:
Upcoming economic events
Tracking and recap of Exodus hybrid overbought/oversold cycles
An index model using auction theory to score the S&p 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Weekly training on how to use the Exodus market intelligence platform.
Sign up for Exodus to receive the Strategy Session every Sunday around noon eastern. With Exodus you get predictive algos, a thriving community of investors and traders, and data on over 5000 stocks and ETFs.
Without further adieu, here is Section III from this week’s report in entirety. Enjoy!
The purpose of the Exodus Strategy Session. This report is designed to build a contextual framework for the upcoming week. The focus is on data and scheduled economic events. I use this logical information because it allows for an objective analysis of the trading environment.
The report seeks to answer the big three auction theory questions:
What has the market done?
What is the market trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
These three questions guide our attempt to answer the most important question of all, “What is the market likely to do from here?”
Section IV is devoted to answering this question and is likely to most difficult section to comprehend. It is where my model is built. The model is based on simple auction theory analysis. I score the four major indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average) based on the performance of their respective front-month futures contracts. These contracts are highly liquid and provide the most possible raw information about the indices.
Section IV also considers the information being produced by the predictive engines inside the Exodus Market Intelligence platform. All the historical data on the signals makes the overbought/oversold thresholds another useful piece of objective data we can use to answer the fourth question.
My model is a work in process, happening live. I began to notice that when my overall bias score became extremely high or extremely low, it would be proven wrong by the market. So I added another layer of objective analysis. I subtract the Exodus overall Hybrid score from my bias score. When the difference between the two numbers is greater than 0.50 the model generates a short bias (despite my raw index data presenting a long bias). When the spread goes negative the model generates a long bias, but it also expects fast, volatile-type movement.
The other data point that emerged, by about week 50, pertains directly to the S&P 500. The model is so consistently wrong at predicting the movement of the S&P 500 that it has a statistical edge to bet against it. 75% of the time we tag the opposite Average True Range (ATR) band.
ATR bands are used simply to score the model’s predictive ability. They are objective price targets, to the upside and downside. Whichever is tagged first determines whether the week was a winner or loser. Here is an image of the S&P 500 ATR bands for this week:
Note: the ATR values for each index can always be found in Section IV under the “Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week” heading.
Context is the grey matter of trading. It is important, but difficult to quantify. News, behavior, etc…we try our best to comprehend it, but ultimately each day brings new information. The Exodus Strategy Session attempts to stay relevant by consistently addressing information mathematically. However the stock market is the net sum of all participants, from institutions with sophisticated algorithms and major resources to the home gamer and everything in between. Therefore it is random, and ubiquitous major events beyond all logic are always possible.
PS – the ‘big 3’ questions is a concept developed in my favorite stock market book of all time, Mind Over Markets: Power Trading with Market Generated Informationby Dalton. If you click that link then buy the book from Amazon, I get like two dollars. Don’t buy it for more than like $30 bucks. Sometimes it sells out and people try charging criminal rates for the book.
Last week my bias model spit out the venereous Bunker Buster long signal and it turned out to be correct. We tagged the upper ATR (Average True Range) band first, before ultimately reversing and trading lower.
It is interesting, that this calculated level devoid of market profile logic, often behaves as a turning point in the markets. I have seen it happen countless times.
However, the week ultimately closed lower, thus the secondary goal of my bias model, which is to call a positive/negative week overall, was not achieved. And although it failed at this task, I managed to have my best trading week in months.
Big volatility creates big opportunity to day-trade. In reviewing last week’s trades, I was amused by the fact that I earned most of my money on long trades. It seems asinine, yes? But the 2016 market has been methodical and extremely compliant with the levels generated by auction theory aka the reports I freely publish every morning here on iBankCoin.
Over the last two weeks I have been discussing my approach heavily on Snapchat [VCali]. It has been a tremendously positive experience and I suppose I will keep doing it. You can follow me there freely as well. We discuss what the markets are doing in real-time, and I will answer any of your questions with a video response. That means you get to see me when I talk to you..I think that is so cool.
When it comes to trading, I treat it like a business. In business, I tend to stick with what’s working. Right now my trading is working. Whether or not the continuous conversation I am having with people on Snapchat is the reason or not I am unsure, but I will stick with it.
As for this week. I have some work to do regarding my position trades. It looks like we are in store for another adventurous week. I heard rumors the (pardon my blunt tone) bullshit Middle Eastern stock markets (lolz) had oil down like 6% this morning on the Iranian sanctions being lifted. I didn’t know this, but in the Middle East, where the camels roam, Sunday is the first working day of the week. Disgusting.
Let it be known I work extremely hard every day of the week, but I respect the fat American’s right to enjoy superfluous television, food, and relaxation on Sundays.
Exodus Members – The latest Strategy Session is published. Be sure to check it out.
Our work inside Exodus is more than algo systems. They are powerful predictive engines, but we also have tons of data on investing and trading. I like the baskets, especially GARP, since I am an aggressive growth junky. Historically, these brokers would take a cleaver to me if I procured 15 stocks whilst sending another 15 packing. However these days new tech has emerged like Motif and Robin Hood. Disruption is in the air heading into 2016 and I intend to be on the right side of it.
With a few strokes of the mouse I re-balanced my passive growth portfolio holdings per the specs set forth by ‘The Fly’ inside Exodus. I am aligned with his new book heading into the new year–so simple. Now I can go back to observing the futile resistance to gentrification occurring in Kensington, Philadelphia.
Other than these wholesale updates, my book is coasting into the New Year. Some positions are working, others (like @jack’s Twitter) are not, but these are concerns for 2016.
Software is finally getting to the point where it makes my life a helluva lot easier. Soon my operations will scale exponentially without increasing my workload whatsoever. You can be stubborn about change and fade. Or you can ride with me, with us, to greatness. You’re smart. Confront the brutal facts and use them to make quality, objective decisions. Then pile those good decisions up, one after another.
Happy New Year, wishing you a strong and prosperous 2016!
