OH $JOY!

I just booked 1/3 of my $JOY long, a position trade taken after performing a live top-down analysis on iBankCoin YouTube back on 3-25-16. Here’s a link if you want to watch it:

This was also my first stock trade of the year.  I turned a cold shoulder to individual stock trading [positions held less than 1.5 years] after reviewing my 2015 performance and being disgusted.

See also: RAUL3 IS SWEARING OFF STOCK TRADING

Since then I focused on trading NASDAQ futures, which was very good to me–especially in January-February.  But the action abated, right around the time globex behavior normalized.

See also: Globex Behavior Normalizing or Volatility Vanishes as March Gets Underway

Like any opportunist, when one well runs dry I seek another.  I don’t want to go back down the dark road of stock trading–building a position book with 15 longs only to wake up to my teeth getting kicked clean in.  But, I will manage one position trade at a time.

The key will be to not get sloppy as the success comes.  That’s what typically happens.  JOY was perfect–3 months of sector analysis, nice short float, and a classic flagging chart after a trend/conviction day.  Very high quality.  If I continue to only strike when conditions are ideal, I can hopefully boost my win rate and average return without chasing every hot trade idea in town.  It’s a real slippery slope, success, if you’re always chasing new heights.  The crash is always lurking around the next bend.

Even with all the cards stacked in my favor, some trades will still be wrong.  I will go with a -10% or 10-day stop loss for risk management.  I don’t have time for anything complicated anymore–it distracts my futures trading.

I would normally press this entire JOY  position into tomorrow then book when it continues higher in the morning, but I will be on the road tomorrow AM, so I took 1/3 off and raised stop aka I can’t lose.

The Exodus wins again.

 

 

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