You may notice I’ve slightly backed off the mouth foaming rhetoric about my bullishness in Tesla Motors.  While still my absolute favorite long-term investment, it’s now trading above intermediate term value.

Does that mean I will sell?

No.  Nah son, that’s a petty move.

But you need to understand a few basic tenents of technical analysis.  One is balance, also known as range.  Stocks spend the majority of their time in balance.  Identifying and plotting the territory is key to assessing whether your idea is ‘working’ and also when and where to take action.

If I were a more fickle Tesla investor, thank goodness I am not, then I would consider capturing some of the recent gains from sub-200 as we approach range high, see below:

The same method of trading can be applied to any instrument.  Buy range low, sell range high.  Eventually you’ll need risk parameters in place to get you out of the way when the break happens.  When the break happens, it will be explosive due to one ‘side’ of the tape being wrong.

For now, and despite political transition, an end to California’s drought, an acquisition of a solar company, and massive updates to the Autopilot feature, there has not been a shift in the perceived value of $TSLA equity.

Understand range trading, and you will be well on your way to better stock market decision making.

Tech Analysis 101

#STUDY

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Yes, the GARP Portfolio inside Exodus was adjusted in Summer ’16, June to be specific, for a Donald Trump victory.  That means the 15 stocks inside the portfolio, selected for their reasonable pricing and potential for growth, were geared toward ‘Making America Great Again’ mainly by concentrating into domestic basic materials plays.

Politics aside, the stated purpose of iBankCoin is to create a place where the aggressive pursuit of happiness via egregious stock market winship is nourished.  Often times the biggest wins in business and investing come from a shift in power, changing laws, etc.

There is something to be said about shelving your emotions and objectively assessing the facts to position yourself to capitalize off change.  It is a mentality stoic practitioners exercise daily in hopes it will serve us well when it matters most.  Life is essentially a series of changes.  Nature itself is transient in nearly every aspect.  To resist is futile at best, fatal even.

GARP is up over 20% since the June adjustment, besting the S&P 500 more than three times over:

Soon an adjustment will be made to make the best of 2017.  So far, it’s shaping up to be a doozy.  We have the high probability of rate hikes paired with expensive housing, a new president, markets at all-time highs, bastard pipeline builders stretching their leaky pipe into the Missouri river, and Russians—so many Russians—prominently asserting their dominance on the world.

Are you ready for 2017?

You want to know where I see change coming?  Food prices.  Inflation is coming in a big way, in my opinion, and I intend to position myself to benefit from it.  Developing…

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Since a few of you are starting up your alcoholism already, ensuring your place at Thanksgiving dinner as the insufferable racist Uncle who smells like mutt shit, let’s take a look inside the Exodus Strategy session (ESS), shall we?

BEHOLD, An Executive Summary tailored for the clear and sharp:

Somewhere around June 2016 an adjustment was made to the index model inside ESS so that an extremely high reading (triggered when ‘bias score’ > Exodus Fundamental Score) becomes a bullish signal.

Also, as of tomorrow, close-of-market the Exodus 36-month Hybrid Overbought cycle, WHICH IS BULLISH, will complete.  How sublime, when my model, Exodus, and The Turkey Gods all converge into a bullish signal?

Quite sublime really, the feeling of equanimity as all the distracting noise melts away.

I hope one day some of you can simplify your approach to trading, allowing only that which is raw and market generated to shape your bias.  To attain this clarity in all of life’s decisions, really.

“Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, of all external events,”

In Summary, with Love and Grace from the turkey gods, Exodus wins again.

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Investing doesn’t get much more simple than what I am about to show you.

Le Fly, the architect behind Exodus, owner of time machine, iBC founder, and Space Alien Magician literally hand picks 15 stocks every six months.  He seeks growth, gentlemen, at a reasonable price.  Inside Exodus the portfolio is called GARP.

Year-to-date performance of the GARP index is a tad below 13% and if you use Motif (no affiliation just a great tool) you literally had to press 2 buttons this entire year to make said gains.

BEHOLD:

The bulk of my ‘stock picking’ money was moved into a Motif account and relegated to the GARP portfolio after I swore off individual stocks.  This allowed me to pursue industry and hone my NASDAQ futures game.  I trade NASDAQ futures quite aggressively, in short spurts, which suits my attention span and cat-like speed.

Current conditions are top notch for taking 6, 9, 21 points home every day.  If I had to babysit a handful of stocks, my performance would suffer.

Le Fly, or Senor Tropicana as he’s known in the Bermuda triangle, had the foresight in June to adjust GARP for a transition into MAGA.  The result?  The index is sailing into year-end on the breeze of winship.

You may be asking yourself why you ever traded stocks.  The environment is tumultuous and everything seems to do the opposite of what you think.  Maybe this isn’t the case for you, but for me individual stock trading, on a short-term time frame, does not work.  However, outsourcing the R&D to someone with a decade more experience then myself and using his algorithms to time my adds does.

In short, long live GARP, long live Exodus, long live Le Fly.

 

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Inside the Exodus Strategy Session we keep the NASDAQ transportation index under close watch.

The index broke up and out of its massive consolidation pattern in early October.  For many weeks the expectation has been for price to begin an explosive upward discovery process.  Instead the index continually churned sideways–neither negating the consolidation break nor producing the expected upside move.

However these last three sessions have seen prices exploding higher.  This is contextually bullish for the overall market:

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We’ve discussed these before.

“Go with” intra-day, be cautious of inflection point high over next few days.

Carry on

 

 

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Investors are happy with the performance of streaming content provider Netflix.  Shares are up nearly +18% following their Q3 earnings release.

The stock is higher despite the collective groan by fundamental analysts, who find the company’s valuation grotesque.

One of my favorite ways to use Exodus is trading the 12 month hybrid oversold signals.  I manage to position with the Hybrid Chg %  column.  As long as it never logs a negative % change larger than the positive % change, I stick with the position.

Note how hybrid change was never greater to the downside since the last signal:

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When the markets opened Friday morning the New York Stock Exchange was slammed pummeled with down ticks, likely via the ‘market on open’ sale orders lining the queue.

It was an extreme event, 3rd sigma.  We’ve covered these many times, you can go with them intra-day, check this freak-beast TICK out:

A TICK this low occurs 0.03% of the time according to a RAUL SANTOS 5 year study of the instrument, using high-quality raw data from IQFeed.

So when it happens there is work to be done.

Most of you would rather read low-brow political guff, but these are the tools I use to make money.

Carry on.

Hardcore traders: I categorize posts like this under ‘tools I use’ so you can look below at ‘Related Articles’ to read more about the phenomenon.

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Yesterday, June 16th, at 11:30am Eastern someone mashed the ‘risk on’ button with a semi-truck full of money, sending a statistically rare shock wave through the New York Stock Exchange.

THERE IT IS: HUGE NYSE TICK…

Biggest since 5/12 at 2:18pm

We have a big responsive bidder?

— Raul (@IndexModel) June 16, 2016

Naturally, a steam whistle blew on MotherShip alerting me to the disturbance.

The method of detection was NYSE TICK, which achieved outlier levels [3rd sigma, 99.7th percentile].  Let’s not forget, any one of you, that my NYSE TICK is a bit more raw then the packaged bits most traders see.

The best I can do is share my observations of past occurrences of extreme NYSE TICKS because I have not yet coded and tested these observations over a significant sample.

OBSERVATION 1:

You can ‘go with” the NYSE TICK, intraday and catch a rotation beyond where the TICK eruption initially peaked out, putting your risk down around where Fibonacci resides, working the same side of the tape as this whale.

OBSERVATION 2:

The exuberance of the massive NYSE TICK happens near the end of a move.  A crescendo, if I may be so bold.

Herein lies the quandary.  This massive uptick happened 6 days into the hole of a NASDAQ sell-off, a regular horror show of summertime tape.  Something the models inside Exodus kept members clean out of with precision timing, to the week.

See Also – Research Reports from iBankCoin Laboratory Keep Investors One Step Ahead of June Markets

So it was a totally different animal than your normal NYSE TICK.  Now, had it been an extremely negative TICK, sure, party pooper signal, the bear raid is nearly complete.  It’s best we bears clear out, before the Brits catch wind of us with their hounds, horses, and rifles—and make way for a return to higher prices.

For these reasons, and MOAR, I stuck with my NASDAQ short into the weekend.

Trading nerds only: I Snapchat traded [username: VCali] AMZN $707.50 puts yesterday, and ended up scratching the position for a small loss.  Short-dated options on super high price tag stocks suck.  Literally, the suck you dry by the minute.  Had I a less draconian way to short Amazon, I could have seen then position through to the $700 price target.

PS the headline photo was a grab from MikeDiva’s latest video.  It is insane and brilliant:

 

 

 

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The Exodus Strategy Session has been freakishly accurate for the first two weeks of June.

Think of the Strategy Session as a weekly research report that takes into consideration all the predicitve analytics inside the software.

The report also contains my working auction theory model, which has been running live for 81 weeks straight.

Attention to detail is paramount to any model because garbage in = garbage out.  The minute factors are presented each Sunday, but they utimately help shape each week’s Thesis for The Week.  Think of it like an executive summary.  Below is last Sunday’s Executive Summary:

Raul’s bias score 3.33, Medium Bull*. Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week. Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

Two weeks ago the summary was still bullish, despite the market being on a pistol hot run, see below:

Raul’s bias score 3.58, Medium Bull*. Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices. Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower. Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day. For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

A great deal of passion goes into this research. It is one of two things your good pal RAUL takes seriously.  The other thing is my morning trading report.

The Executive Summary is a 10 second read based on 4-5 hours of research and is one more way you can outsource your analytics to the good folks at iBankCoin Exodus.

BONUS: When I have a conviction bias, I let it be known on snapchat.  For these updates, follow me.  My user name is VCali.

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