With the north gently easing into shorter days and bright-eyed youths worldwide preparing to descend upon institutions of higher learning, I feel it is both my moral and ethical responsibility to impart any and all wisdom I’ve gained during my years as a student of money and society. In this blog, I will address not only matters of finance but also nutrition, social networking and success.

I want to hold this entry to a higher standard than usual by limiting my swearing, so first and foremost let me state the most important thing you need to know while curbing my impulse for rage, and we’ll be good lads and choose better words going forward:

FUCK THE BANKS AND THEIR FUCKING BANKERS.

Banks offer nothing in the way of good help for the small chaps or medium lasses or even mixed-weight couples. They only exist to serve their institutional clients, client whose balance sheets became huge long before any bank was willing to help. These large institutions enjoy access to capital at wonderful rates. I used to work in corporate finance, treasury to be specific, and I’ve seen firsthand how to make good deals with bankers. It takes size lads, size we don’t have.

When I use the words credit and loan I mean numbers on a screen that can be used to take possession of goods, or screen numbers we can use to motivate someone to do a service, or numbers we can click around the internet to place a bet on the future (our favorite use). Banks will never extend credit or loans to you when they’re most desperately needed. Nope. But once you’ve had some success on your own, suddenly they flood you with offers, right? Once the brokerage account hits six figures, suddenly they want you to use their margin. That’s because they want to take the moneys you fought like a banshee to extract from the system via interest, fees, forced liquidation and other draconian punishments.

These are not helpful institutions — banks and brokerages — and they are becoming way less relevant in our budding era of digital currency and One Progressive Global Internet economy. The internet always wins and right now it is winning big leauge. So forget about the banks or any other pillars of traditional finance helping you in any way.

Okay, now that we have established that tradfi is not here to help, let’s deep dive into the most efficient ways to gain access to their numbers on the screen without going broke or becoming their slaves.

The first tool that becomes available as we reach adulthood is student loans. These are your ticket to financial freedom. Use them wisely.

Every one of yous needs to attend college. Which college you attend and how you go about it are vital to your independence. If I could do it all over again, I would have studied more of a ‘trade’ like engineering or coding instead of business finance. Finance is something you can learn on your own if you just pay attention to your money and the way society tries to take it. I’ve learned more about finance from trading and independently operating a business than I ever did from a professor.

Anyhow, going to college is critical for two reasons. The first is the longer a human brain is kept in a learning environment, the higher the likelihood that it will form strong reading comprehension and an ability to effectively communicate. These two skills are vital to your independence. The second reason to do college is it gains you access to cheap loans. Loans that are very likely to be erased from your ledger, one-way-or-another, eventually. This is a good place to transition to the next key to success:

DO NOT ACCELERATE REPAYMENT OF STUDENT LOANS. EVER.

Student loans carry some of the cheapest interest you’ll ever have access to in your entire lives. The next best will likely be via a mortgage (if you’re even able to afford real estate) and then probably auto loans.

We need to discuss the ‘how’ of ‘going to college’. If you can tolerate your elders (parents, grandparents, uncle, anyone old willing to shelter you) then find the best college nearby and commute to it. Yes, you will miss out on a tiny sliver of collegiate life — you know, shacking up with total strangers in tiny rooms and sharing toilets and sinks with them. Bummer.

The rest of the collegiate experience is social, right? This can be supplemented quite easily if you live near any major city center. Take Detroit for instance. We have a thriving scene of meetups (like the one I help organize), house parties, unsanctioned raves filled with debauchery, coffee shops with good wifi, cheap noodle shops and more. Doing these things in the nearest city to where elders will house you has multiple benefits, but the biggest benefit is the relationships you form here could last a lifetime.  Since you’ll probably live there forever, this network can collectively play the game of extracting dollars and building business in a place you deeply understand. This is an edge that will baffle your peers when they ‘move back home’ after college.

These urban centers also offer the chance, if needed, to find a few roommates and spread your wings via independent living. Sure.

Either way you’re going to need to learn to cook. Nutrition is the key to health and with only a few inputs and tools you can build a strong body and mind. A microwave, the biggest wok you can handle (ideally a gas stove but electric works), an electric water boiler, a knife and cutting board, a rice cooker and some Pyrex containers will have you well on your way to healthy living.

You don’t really need a fridge/freezer if you have a good grocery store nearby. You do the european model of buying only the groceries for the next 24-48 hours. That said, freezing some veggie burgers and refrigerating leftover for tomorrow’s lunch is nice.

In terms of food, you need to keep your cost per meal down. Breakfast should be a staple and an honored daily routine. Quality bread (I like Dave’s prison bread), eggs, and peanut butter can keep you fueled until at least mid afternoon. Add some flavor with Morningstar patties, ketchup (hot sauce) and jellies (bonus points if you make your own preserves!).

Pretty much any vegetable can be cut into small pieces and made delicious in a wok. Put the wok on high heat, drop two glugs of olive oil in the pan, sprinkle some red pepper flakes in the oil and wait for them to sizzle. When the red pepper is sizzling but before the oil is smoking is your window for adding the veggies. Mix and match and stir it a bunch until some carbon builds up (carbon equals flavor, some health nuts will say this is cancerous, but it makes me feel great). Vegetables are cheap and colorful and packed with nutrition. Mix and match spices and serve it over rice. I eat tons of broccoli because it has the vitamins and minerals I’m not getting from animal flesh.

Keep at least three Soylant bottles on hand at all times. Some days there won’t be time for one of your meals, and at about $3.25 per bottle Soylant is a great meal replacement.

Okay so we have our entire diet covered cheaply.  Feel free to add in caffeine and beer and if you’re feeling a bit overwhelmed by life add in some reefer. But be careful with the reefer. The brain is still developing well into your 20s, and the more THC you flood your receptors with, the more it is likely you’ll start using pronouns in your bio and trying to unionize burrito shops.

Exercise will do wonders for your mind. It does not have to be in the morning or always the same thing. I like lifting weights after my morning intellectual work if I don’t plan on toiling outside in the afternoon. I also enjoy throwing the frisbee, riding the kayak, hot yoga, skateboarding or biking or walking and so on.

Most universities will have community colleges that they will accept credits from. These are good classes filled with more people living real adult lives and are much cheaper.

EARN AS MANY CREDITS AS POSSIBLE FROM COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

It is not super important that you obtain a degree from all your time spent in college. It may bring you peace if you do take home that piece of paper, knowing you can fall back on some entry-level job as a corporate or municipal servant if it turns out you cannot hack it as an independent operator.

Okay we’ve covered how to do college to my satisfaction, now let’s get into why we do all this austere shit. We want to take, lads. We want to take as many student loans as they offer. We want all the student loans. But, we do not want to spend that money on our education. No. We want to do much, much bigger things with those dollars.

As many of those dollars as you can possibly set aside need to be parked in the betting markets. Not casinos or lotto tickets or sport gambling. Those are addictive traps of the lower-middle class. You need to participate in the big show, equity markets, the greatest gamble of all. How risky you decide to be here is a matter of personal tolerance. I’d recommend at least 50% of that money be put into a very boring mix of $QQQ $TLT. Another 20% should be concentrated into one-or-two Big Tech tickers you believe will be around and thriving long after you’re dead. For me, all those years ago when I was still a youth full of piss and vigor, that was $TSLA. Today it is still $TSLA lol.

The rest needs, ***NEEDS*** to be in cryptocurrency. In some way or another. My brothers and sisters, this is so vital. Do your homework. Go down the rabbit hole. I cannot say which projects will win. Okay fine, ethereum. It is pretty incredible. But it is an entire ecosystem. Within it are many roads and yous’d better do your homework. Heck, I’m debating going back to school to become a Solidity expert because the more I study the ether the more it seems I don’t know.

Now just because you’re in college doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be working. Work will accelerate your learning, no matter what type of work it is. You CAN work and study. Use that youthful energy people. Burn the candle at both ends. Take whatever chemicals you need to to squeeze life’s apple until it bleeds wealth. There are so many apps out there now that have breathed life into the gig economy. So if you don’t feel like being obligated to work for some organization, then download Amazon Flex, or Wayfair Service Pro, or deliver groceries or gather and recharge Bird scooters. The moneys out there. Go get it.

Those earned wages should never be used to ‘get ahead’ on paying student loans. First of all they don’t make you pay student loans while you’re still taking x amount of credit hours. I’m not sure the exact credit hours needed to defer loans but use that rule to avoid paying for as long as possible. Then when it is time to pay, pay the absolute minimum to avoid fees. Don’t worry about the interest, that’s good cheap interest. If some global event occurs and they allow you to freeze payments, by golly freeze the bastids. You do not want to pay these loans off. Ever. You want them to be on your personal ledger for as long as it takes. Eventually they will be forgiven. Even if you went to law school and you’re staring down the barrel of six figures worth of debt. Worry not. These numbers will eventually go away. So it is written, so it shall be.

The cats out of the bag lads. The progressives have found the ultimate political hack — they can make the bad numbers go away. And they will, every two-to-four years, in perpetuity, as long as they have your loyalty in the voting box.

SWALLOW YOUR PRIDE AND VOTE FOR THE PROGRESSIVES.

Is it sustainable? Honestly, we dunno. Historically most empires peacefully exist for about 175 years. But we are in a new era of instant communication and One World thinking. Right now, as we speak, thousands of Big Tech millionaires are pooping in buckets and exchanging trinkets in the middle of the desert at their Burning Man. These are your world leaders. The days of lines on maps drawn by the privileged humans reigning supreme are numbered. Prepare for revolution however you see fit. Definitely don’t have anxiety about it. If you’re feeling anxiety maybe head to your nearest national forest and take a mushroom and have a long talk with the gods about how silly it all is.

Three of the biggest threats to your personal finance are insurance chiselers, telecommunication fees and automobiles. These are three areas where you would be wise to milk your elders for as long as possible. Stay on their insurance, their family cellphone plan and take a hand-me-down junker if possible. If not, then keep your taxable income low and maximize how much Obamacare you can receive. Fight the damn phone companies every three-to-six months for lower rates and move to a city where you can walk or bike around.

BE PATIENT AND KIND.

Well that’s about it. Do these things and watch your independence grow. There will be a few moments in your life lasting anywhere from a few weeks to a year-or-so where all the stars will align and the numbers on the screen attached to your name will explode in value, changing EVERYTHING. Just be patient. The good times will come. But if you’re some chooch, twisted up by pride into thinking you need to be some debt-free idiot with a modest salary and all the trimming society perceives as success, you’ll miss these moments and be cucked into servitude for your entire life.

Keep learning, keep gaming student loans, work, and be a little bit more kind. Then enjoy your freedom.

I am sure I missed a few keys to keeping folks away from yer lucky charms. Feel free to comment below with any techniques or risks I may have overlooked. And be sure to share this entry with all your youths and perhaps your neighbor’s youths.

Comments »

Well we had a solid run off the lows lads. Called it decently too.

That bunker buster nine weeks ago, two months ago really, two hardt months of living. We pressed risk with vigor and sigma bravery.

Now I cannot approach the upcoming week with such conviction. Things have gone murky again.

The only real guidepost we have this week is NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell. They’re chips are vital to our success as a progressive one world economy where everyone lives in pods and eats bugs. So I definitely expect the entire risk complex to take their cues from their earnings.

I compiled my research this morning but couldn’t pen the report and complimentary blog until after I did some touring about town. Thus my spirit for inspiring yous to do your best this week is waning a bit. Just know that I am rooting for you anon.

Let’s tread easy this week and wait for a clearer picture to take shape.

Raul Santos, August 21st, 2021

And now the 398th edition of Strategy Session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 08/22/22 – 08/26/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.73, medium bear. Choppy through Wednesday. Then look for earnings out of NVIDIA to dictate direction into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Continued strength early in the week, then a fade lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Last week saw investor rotating into safe havens.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed to the sell side after many strong weeks for buyers.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Back to no clear read

We had solid context for a rally these last several weeks. Now things seem to be coming into balance, and without any signals from IndexModel we cannot really form a strong bias heading into the second-to-last week of August.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy through Wednesday. Then look for earnings out of NVIDIA to dictate direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Seeing potential for balance

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

That weak low on Transports still irks me, but we’ve rallied so far from it, that we’re likely to encounter support ahead of any retest of the lows. This leads to the belief that a new range is forming.

See below:

Semiconductors also seem to be coming into range.

Ether was being pulled up into that vaccum for a while, but last week sellers sharply rejected it. Now it seems more likely we will avoid that pocket short term and instead form a range below it.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after several weeks of signaling.

No bias heading into next week.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — nine weeks back, sixteen weeks ago, twenty-nine reports back and a third thirty-seven reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Friday, August 12th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought on the six month algo. This signal has bullish statistics. The cycle runs through Friday, August 26th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“What we play is life.” – Louis Armstrong

Trade simple, play

Comments »

For thousands of years our DNA has hard coded us to want to win and be in charge of everything. The problem is, most of us did not win the nepotism lotto and worse—most americans have poisoned their guts with pound-after-pound of land meat. And no matter how big-a pick up truck they buy they still cannot out compete the waspy politician with a sensible diet of vegetables and boy blood.

I know. I know. There’s adderall. Most of yous are fiends for it, popping little meth pills like ticked tacks in a bid to keep the focus and energy high. But let me hopefully be the last person who needs to tell you that the bill always comes due.

Your arteries will clog. That draconian mething of your heart will accelerate your one billion heart beat allotment. And unless you calm tf down you’re going to keep ramming your head into a wall like a jabroni trying to fight our One World progressive trajectory.

Eat the bugs, chap. Save your paltry w-2 wages up for an electric vehicle. Simply be kind for a change.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll like not fighting for every heckin’ dang inch of gain on the roadway and in life.

With mid-terms just around the corner, and one of the greatest debt forgiveness schemes (without war) in history on the docket for student loans, the continued progressive victory is all but paid for and guaranteed.

If you need someplace to vent your cave-like anger with the fact that the world no longer needs your alpha-agressor type, perhaps join some gay meetup club for bikes and beef or something.

But if you intend to keep mind sharp for the business of extracting fiat american dollars from the streets and financial systems, accept that the only way forward is signing kum-by-ya and loving your neighbor as much (if not more) than yourself.

Also — Models still want the pump.

Raul Santos, August 14th 2022

And now the 397th Strategy Session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 08/15/22 – 08/19/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 4.03, STRONG BULL*. The squeeze higher continues to press higher. Earnings due out from Walmart/Home Depot early Tuesday may accelerate the move higher. Then watch for third reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

* extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e[RCS] bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Slight drift lower through Tuesday. Then a strong pump after cooler-than-expected CPI data. Then a strong rally into the weekend. The Russell continues to be bullish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Key Tech and Discretionary sectors lagged a bit. But upward rotations across the board.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows heavily skewed to the buy side of the ledger.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

More squeeze into OPEX

Another light week ahead in terms of economic data and earnings. This opens the door for bulls to continue to press higher, with up currently being the path of least resistance.

Stocklabs and Indexmodel are in bullish signals. The above data is bullish. The contextual charts are bullish. This rally is stretched, but the call heading into next week is for continuation.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

The squeeze higher continues to press higher. Earnings due out from Walmart/Home Depot early Tuesday may accelerate the move higher. Then watch for third reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up, up against some pivots

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

That weak low on Transports still irks me, but for now buyers are in control. This index is still hanging out at an interesting pivot zone, and could reclaim an old balance area that chops along all time highs.

See below:

Semiconductors continue to tear higher after a slight pullback last week was aggressively bid into. Similar to transports, this index could pivot up into an old range.

Ether still seems to be drawn to that volume pocket around 2100-2300.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses for a third consecutive week. There was an RCS bearish three weeks prior and prior to that signal it was e[RCS] bullish for two weeks.

I’ve noticed that four e[RCS] readings in tight succession tend to suggest a rally is maturing. So we are certainly in a mature up phase which means the risk of a leg lower is elevated.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — eight weeks back, fifteen weeks ago, twenty-eight reports back and a third thirty-six reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Friday, August 12th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought on the six month algo. This signal has bullish statistics. The cycle runs through Friday, August 26th end-of-day.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I never lose. I either win or learn.” – Nelson Mandela

Trade simple, keep learning, keep winning

Comments »

Not much to elaborate on. We’re probing higher lads. The deals are flowing. Heckin’ Madam Speaker of the House asserted her dominance over the red commies and let the world know that semiconductors belong to democracy. The White House is about to put out big league electic vehicle credits. And they’re lining up the knockout punch, simply erasing billions in student debt, just in time for the midterms.

It really is game over. The progressive thinkers have won and markets are responding in kind.

Amazon went out and bought iRobot. Why not? Soon alexa will be roaming around our homes and yards, zapping things with lazers and ordering our canned bugs whenever our allotment runs low.

Jack is hard at work growing his goatee and solving Universal Basic Income.

I am growing corn and courting the building department to allow for me to make to make to be allowed this time soon for to buildt the greatest steely plastic doohicky all of 5000 square feet of Raul’s wonderlandt.

Which will of course mostly be inhabited by robots and plants.

My call heading into next week is simple — we squeeeze the no dang good short sellers. The paranoid. The kook and the seemingly so smart chartist. Through Wednesday morning. Then we rightly melt their faces off with the most grotesque post CPI pump.

That’s my bias heading into the week before opex. Kill the shorts.

Raul Santos, August 7th 2022

And now for the 396th edition of Strategy Session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 08/08/22 – 08/12/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.65, medium bull*. Buyers continue to sqeeze higher early on. Then watch for third reaction to Wednesday morning’s CPI data to show direction into the second half of the week.

* extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e[RCS] bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Sideways and choppy through Tuesday. Strong rally Wednesday. Continuation Thursday. Sellers pressured the tape post non-farm payroll data. Then we sort of chopped and regained the NFP reaction into the weekend. Divergent strength from the Russell 2000.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Interesting to see muted rotations during a somewhat strong week. However, leadership from Tech and Discretionary is ideal for bulls.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows stabilizing. Slight bullish skew with mostly oil companies populating the sell side of the ledger.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Squeeze into OPEX

The earnings calendar lightens up this week, and with the week having a clear focal point with CPI Wednesday morning, it provides plenty of runway for a short squeeze. The rally is several weeks mature, and the risk of turning lower is elevated. But given the contextual structure of earnings, White House policy, calendar/opex, indexmodel/stocklabs signalling and scheduled economic events we have the ingredients for a squeeze.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers continue to squeeze higher early on. Then watch for third reaction to Wednesday morning’s CPI data to show direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

We’ve probed higher and sellers haven’t really emerged, yet

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

That weak low irks me. But for now buyers are in control. This index is coming into the week right along an interesting pivot zone that I expect to see contested and perhaps a multi-day battle for control.

See below:

Semiconductors have printed a streak of green candles that give the index a strong discovery up look. We could see a new range develop soon.

Ether has been auctioning on the CME for about a year-and-a-half and in that time it has left a significant volume pocket up between about 2100-2300. I could see us spending some time up in that zone, filling out the profile. Or it could be a huge wall of resistance. Either way it seems like an area we could probe up into now that the overplay for the underlay is complete.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses for a second consecutive week. There was an RCS bearish two weeks prior and orior to that signal it was e[RCS] bullish for two weeks.

I’ve noticed that four e[RCS] readings in tight succession tend to suggest a rally is maturing. So we are certainly in a mature up phase which means the risk of a leg lower is elevated.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — seven weeks back, fourteen weeks ago, twenty-seven reports back and a third thirty-five reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Tuesday, July 19^th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought on the six month algo. This signal has bullish statistics. The cycle runs through Tuesday, August 2^nd end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To lose patience is to lose the battle.” – Gandhi

Trade simple, trust the process MORE

 

Comments »

When that fourth bunker buster hit on June 12th I had to drudge some funds out of an old LLC to once again buy the dip. I’ve been a dip buyoor the whole way down baby. That’s the difference between me, a grandiose style delusional disordered verses you, the paranoid cable news watcher.

I am cursed with future vision, and I bare this cross with as much humility as possible but at the same time I stare at patches of dirt and imagine all-glass buildings rising into the sky.

When the cement crews show up I say hello and inspect their hole. Constantly learning as much as possible from my cousins the latinos. Good honest folks doing hardt work. Some smarter than others.

The amish are my homies. I like their beards and they like mine. We both like accumulating land and making it produce corn and tobacco.

City centers are the lifeblood of culture and unfortunately we have to keep the rural kooks afraid to come near by giving off the appearance of chaos and crime.

It sucks but the alternative is a bunch of militia freaks, with their tiny cocks and compensatory pickup trucks clogging the roadways with their gay honking meetups.

It’s time to buidl lads and if that hasn’t become abundantly clear yet, what with the toxic wokes and the derranged assult rifle owners, a spectrum of lunacy with two insufferable poles, idk what will stoke yous into action.

The global financial complex is a tool. A set of data representing the interaction of humans worldwide. Humans who, for our intent and purposes are more data blips than souls. Because we have to maintain a strict adherence to the system otherwise the fucking citadel will make to kill our moneys. In this manner we make our way through these financial arenas, extracting as many fiat american dollars as efficiently as possible because those fuckers aren’t going to finance our buildings.

Nope. They only finance w-2 chooches who bring home a steady bi-weekly compensation in return for FUCK YOU you’re tethered to these meetings about meetings 40-60 hours per week.

Good lucking buidling whilst corporate overlords have you chained to a cubicle. Chooched. To the highest degree.

Model wants more pump. The earnings calendar is light. Non-farm payroll is the only data on the docket. And we have a nice clean start to the second month of Q3. Love it when the calendar is very nice and clean with the first being a Monday.

Okay for  now,

Raul Santos, July 31st 2022

PS – thank you Jeff Bezos, thank you Google, thank you Microsft. Mark, please do better.

And now the 395th strategy session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 08/01/22 – 08/05/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.85, neutral*. Buyers continue to explore higher prices during a week-long rally. Then look for non-farm payroll data Friday morning to dictate direction into the weekend.

* extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e[RCS] bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Sideways-to-slightly lower through Tuesday morning. Then a strong rally throughout the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Second consecutive week of strong buying rotations. Stronger than last report.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Second consecutive week of a major buyside skew in the money flows.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Signals uncross, all signs point to higher

New month starts cleanly on Monday. Minimal earnings/economic data on the docket. IndexModel and Stocklabs in bullish cycles. Rotations, money flow and contextual charts all point to higher.

Press risk.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers continue to explore higher prices during a week-long rally. Then look for non-farm payroll data Friday morning to dictate direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Support held and now it looks like time to probe higher

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

The weak low held on Transports for now. This charts discovery up has been more explosive than semiconductors or ether. Next matter of business appears to be testing a bit higher to see if the prior swing highs are defended by sellers.

See below:

Semiconductors exited an aged discovery down phase after closing an old gap (marking the bottom) by switching directly into discovery up. Until a strong seller emerges to restore balance, this chart appears to be seeking higher prices.

Ether found support a bit higher than expected in last week’s report and is now discovering higher prices. This new commodity has nearly doubled in price in one month.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish after being RCS bearish last week. Prior to that signal it was e[RCS] bullish for two weeks.

I’ve noticed that four e[RCS] readings in tight succession tend to suggest a rally is maturing.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — six weeks back, thirteen weeks ago, twenty-six reports back and a third thirty-four reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Tuesday, July 19^th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought on the six month algo. This signal has bullish statistics. The cycle runs through Tuesday, August 2^nd end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Patience is not simply the ability to wait – it’s how we behave while we’re waiting.” – Joyce Meyer

Trade simple, trust the process

Comments »

Greetings and salutations dear readers of the humble Raul blog [hRb]. Some kind of pump last week, eh? Finally. Emm hmm.

Reckon that was the finest pump all year.

Anyhow last week’s pump is the past and while it is the recent past it is still the past and whilst we will consider it in our analysis this week what is done is done okay? And that’s fine.

I am steadily working to clear up my mind after about a year of NFT shenanigans, aggressive urban land grabs and no dang good imbibing.

I keep wondering if low-of-year is in. That’s how screwed up my mind is like, I always think the worst is behind and better days ahead. It’s delusional maybe, defiant optimisim more likely.

Way too many people around me think we’re on the brink of total chaos and that that’s a bad thing. That the United Steaks is about to shatter into a thousand pieces and the dang Chinese are going to launch a military invasion because Mancy wants to visit Taiwan. Or the oceans gonna crash into Miami or the food is poison or the city is ruined…on and on fear. Seems irrational but what do I know?

I’m just a humble speculator turned hobo gardener who really needs to get back to work extracting fiat from the global financial complex.

After having my teeth and cock kicked about for the first half of the year I’ve managed to claim some victories in July.

Now the month is coming to an end and not without a heavy docket of economic data. We have the FOMC rate hike on Wednesday. The gambling halls in Chicago are placing 80% odds of a 75 basis point hike.

We have our benevolent Big Tech overlords due to report earnings—Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon.

We also have the White House teasing some executive orders due to hit this week.

Elon of course got out in front of all this noise, with his little ai/robot/energy company, TESLA, reporting some hecking sweet numbers, sending prices of his shares higher. Thanks Elon.

I dunno. The model is bearish. Stocklabs is bullish. When you put all the data from the Strategy Session on a ledger the bulls have more going for them than the bears.

Maybe low-of-year is in.

Again. We don’t know.

We do know that there are goblins all across the interwebs and streets who want nothing more than to put me, you and anyone else below them in the great American fight for glory.

Which is fine.

My muscles follow lines that make exotic sports cars blush. Ma hair is long and I’m growing a nice Jacked Dorsey gotee. The dang F-250 shitkicker diesel is fueled up and ready to steamroll any combative drivers. My corn and cock stand high. My demeanor is calm and regal.

This is difficult set of circumstances to beat.

So maybe it is time to get back to work. Boy do I have some studies to update first. But maybe it is time to do all of this.

Maybe low-of-year is in.

We don’t know.

Raul Santos, July 24th 2022

And now the 394th edition of Strategy Session.

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/25/22 – 07/29/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.15, neutral*. Expecting some upward price action early in the week before sellers step in (perhaps after the FOMC decision) and work price lower by week’s end.

Watch for third reaction to the FOMC decision to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

**Most Big Tech names are set to report earnings this week, from Tuesday-Thursday. These major NASDAQ components could steer the overall market.**

* Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big selloff Monday around opening bell before buyers stepped in early Tuesday and began campaigning higher. Then price rallied through most of the week, until a spike higher around opening bell Friday sharply reversed. Most of Friday was spent working lower until a bid stepped in late in the afternoon.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Last week’s rotations were strongly in favor of buyers, with key Tech and Discretionary sectors putting in a strong performance. Meanwhile risk averse sectors like Utilities and Staples lagged.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

After six or so weeks of aggressive battle between buy and sell flows, There were two weeks of mundane money flows.

Then last week buyers skewed the flows heavily to the bullish side of the ledger.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Signals crossed into a busy week

Last few weeks we’ve had a clear picture from the data in this report. Not the case this week. We have a bullish overbought cycle in play from Stocklabs (triggered Tueday, 7/19). We also have a bearish Rose Colored Sunglasses from IndexModel.

Sector rotations and money flows were bullish. Meanwhile our key contextual indices are nearing resistance in established long-term discovery down phases.

All this with Big Tech set to report earnings throughout the week. The White House teasing some green energy news. And the Federal Reserve set to hike rates on Wednesday.

Tough week to form a bias.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expecting some upward price action early in the week before sellers step in (perhaps after the FOMC decision) and work price lower by week’s end.

Watch for third reaction to the FOMC decision to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Kind of sloppy but potential support below

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

I don’t have a ton of conviction in the low on Transports, but they have set up a potential support level for buyers to lean onto in the coming days.

See below:

Semiconductors have a similar picture, except the low looks much less sketchy than transports. This index is in a discovery down phase long term but we can see it has had many pullbacks.  Each rip becomes less likely to be a good short entry. That is unless we see something major to the downside that sets up a whole new phase.

Overall I see a bit of room to the downside, then primary expectation is for the potential support to hold.

Ether kind of choppy. Could see the 1,300 level being tested near term for support.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish after two weeks of e[RCS] bullishness.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — five weeks back, twelve weeks ago, twenty-five reports back and a third thirty-three reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Tuesday, July 19^th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought on the six month algo. This signal has bullish statistics. The cycle runs through Tueday, August 2^nd end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I have no special talent. I am only passionately curious.” – Albert Einstein

Trade simple, stay humble

Comments »

Must be quite brief lads. Had a rager last night here at Mothership and the place is a wreck. There’s a festival going on down the street and I must bike over to meet some good chaps and their kin.

IndexModel still wants the pump. I realize last week started with heavy selling and I expected heavy buying but once that CPI hit, and that red candle hit, and then buyers battled back, and then later the NASDAQ set up that beautiful bullish divergance. Well once all that happened things started to pump.

You may not like the state of the nation or the way folks behave, full grown folks behaving like maniacal children, you may not like it okay? But when the data calls for a pamp by golly you put the longs and participate in the pump.

Barring some unforeseen news event, next week’s calendar is wide open for bulls to have themselves a little pamp fest.

Big Daddy Elon reports earnings at his AI/Robot/Tech company Tesla Wednesday after the bell and I think His Divine Message could be the taste we need to really get that pamp going.

Okay for now,

Raul Santos, July 17th 2022

And now the 393rd edition of Strategy Session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/18/22 – 07/22/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.63, medium bull*. Buyers control the tape early in the week. Then look for earnings Wednesday after the bell from major NASDAQ component Tesla to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

*Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e[RCS] bullish  bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Heavy selling early in the week. A huge sell spike Wednesday morning on the CPI data. Buyers spent Wednesday recovering all the ground lost in the Wednesday spike. Then Thursday, all major indices made new lows except that NASDAQ, which was bullish divergent, effectively setting up a strong rally, across the board into Thursday afternoon. Follow through buying Friday and into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations not telling a bullish story, with all except Staples lower on the week. But given the context of last week’s reversal, and the slight divergent strength in tech…

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

After six or so weeks of aggressive battle between buy and sell flows, the last two weeks have been a bit more mundane. Last week’s skew was to the sell side.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

A Bunker Buster finally goes positive

There have been four Bunker Buster signals out of IndexModel since risk assets began correcting late last year. Three Bunker Busters in 2022. For the first time we have a signal (6/12/22) that has a positive return. The most recent dip seems to have stuck.

Or perhaps the next leg lower is just around the corner. We don’t know.

However, it is a positive development for bulls to see one of these signals finally nail a tradable low.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers control the tape early in the week. Then look for earnings Wednesday after the bell from major NASDAQ component Tesla to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Mini balances under maturing down phases

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

Transports have what looks like a weak low, and this does not inspire a ton of confidence in the stability of the low-end of the recent balance that has taken shape. But, there is still plenty of room for upside in the current down channel.

See below:

Semiconductors took care of that old gap two weeks ago and now I am beginning to suspect we will probe higher to test seller conviction.

Ether holding balance along the psychological 1,000 mark.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish for a second consecutive week.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — four weeks  back, eleven weeks ago, twenty-four reports back and a third thirty-two reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Knowing is not enough. We must apply..” – Leonardo da Vinci

Trade simple, TRADE

Comments »

Alright back to work you lazy sows.

This is america and we’re on the move. Have you seen the Joneses? They’re kicking your ass. They came out of the pandemic like champions, dicks swinging low, leveraging their lives for that bigger house, cottage and boat.

And what of Raul? Growing corn and tobacco in one of the most derelict cities in the union, preparing for chaos?

It fits me. But this isn’t about me. This is about the fate of the financial markets and their outcome is at the mercy of Joey Donuts and John P. Fatburger.

Get back into the trenches and close those deals. It’s time to buidl.

Alright all the guff aside. There is a beautiful alignment on all my signals and basically I have to go ahead to press some long bets into Wednesday. Read the report for all the technical bias development and then pepper into it that the dang moon goes full Wednesday and will be at its closest point to earth on the year. All the moon power gonna be lifting.

I am feeling strong lads. Three thousand strands of GMO sweet corn stand tall like emerald green american cocks. The tobacco leaves a huge and oily and I am pulling doinks out of the earth as we speak both turnips and carrots.

It’s pepper season and I have 50 big’ole bushes of shishedo and boy are they juicy.

I have the means of production and I have seized upon their capability.

Now it is my job, all of our jobs, to go out and extract fiat american dollars from the global financal complex as best as possible.

Said funds are to be converted into real assets like chunks of earth and steel and machines. Chaos will not find us unprepared damnit.

raul santos, July 10th 2022

And now the 393rd edition of Strategy Session.

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/11/22 – 07/15/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.65, medium bull*. Buyers control the tape through early Wednesday. Then look for the CPI data early Tuesday to pivot the auction. This data is likely to give a clear reaction that we can carry into week’s end but there are a few wild cards that could either accelerate or reverse the action. Fed’s Beige book out Wednesday afternoon and then earnings out of Taiwan Semiconductors Thursday morning.

*Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e[RCS] bullish  bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Markets were closed Monday in observation of Fourth of July.  Heavy selling before cash open Tuesday was sharply reversed and we rallied through Tuesday. Choppy Wednesday. More rallying Thursday. Buyers aggressive again early Friday and held the highs into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rallied in all the right places. Softness from risk averse Utilities.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows have been an aggressive battle these last six or so weeks. Last week the ledger skewed to the buy side.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Methodical markets

Sometimes the correction periods of a market can seem chaotic. But eventually the market returns to its methodical behavior of mechanically uniting as many buyers and sellers together through the process of price discovery.

The way the semiconductor index resolved that old gap from back in November 2019 and then rallied hard is indicative of the overall market returning to normal.

We’re clear of any major signals from Stocklabs but we have extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses on Indexmodel. The above data were bullish.

Pair this with the scheduled economic events (cpi, beige book Tuesday, Taiwan semiconductor earnings early Thursday) and we have a really clean set-up to trade.

Bullish at least until Wednesday, then pivot based off the way markets react to these three events.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers follow through on last week’s strong close with some continuation Monday. Then look for sellers to emerge by Wednesday. Then a battle for control into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

**ANALYSIS NOT COMPLETED**

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Poking higher

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

Transports blew out their downward channel and then formed balance on the lower timeframe. Now they appear to have a bit of room to run higher on both time frames despite being in discovery down.

See below:

Semiconductors managed to resolve that old November 2019 gap last Tuesday and rallied hard off of it. This key driver of the overall market is still in discovery down but unless sellers do something major this phase is becoming quite mature. Keep an eye on semiconductors Thursday after earnings out of $TSM. Could tell a story.

Ether has become quite mellow as of late. We’re still working through the overplay for the underlay, but after probing below levels unseen on the cme futures, and then testing the big psychological $1,000 level, we may have formed a failed auction.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish heading into the first full business week of July.

There were four Bunker Busters in recent history — four weeks  back, eleven weeks ago, twenty-four reports back and a third thirty-two reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy

Trade simple, be picky

Comments »

As we come to an end of June, a month known to be Raul’s, I feel the urge to briefly reflect and then plot a course against the will of my beloved Indexmodel.

This has been one of the hardest months of my entire life. I sincerely mean this. I lost a dear friend and it was terrible. This kicked off a grieving bender that lasted oh about 14 days or so. A real emotional roller coaster. On top of this is germinated about 3,000 sweet corn (peaches and cream), transplanted three paw paw, kept about 70 containers of tobacco (connecticut shade), brought water to the devil knows how many plants, planned and executed four events, some with over fifty folks in attendance. Became a year older. Celebrated my father. Bought the dip.

I’ve never worked this hard in this kind of heat for this long. Some days I feel like a leathery pickle. Acidic and tanned from the brine (hootch) and sun (labor).

Folks are taking notice. The area around the urban famstead is starting to hum a bit, with more and more fucking hipsters after me lucky charms. Land long abandoned by babied boomers, overlooked during millenial adolescence is suddenly becoming highly coveted. And there is this odd sort of entitelment from the hipsters that arrived five or so years ago that all the land is there for them and that it should be kept in a state of wildgrass and I gotta tell you—I don’t think they know what Italian grit really looks like in practice.

I mean we’re talking about a guy who bangs out stock market models on the weekends, has the skill set to grind money out of the chicago mercantile exchange, withstand deep crypto dips, dig swimming pools by handt. There’s old country blood coursing through my body and often times it wants to make to kill but I channel it into more productive activities like building beautiful things.

Grand papa Raul spent nine years on the African front fighting alongside the Axis of Evil and now somehow that lineage has wound up on Detroit’s eastside ready to buidl.

Don’t fuck with my punkins unless you’re ready to be gabagoled outta spite.

And heading into quarter end there are 4.5 more days of my month and I intend to squeeze every last bit of juice outta them.

Now I must be off—to a catalina wine mixer.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, June 26th 2022

And now the 392nd edition of Strategy Session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/27/22 – 07/01/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.53, medium bull*. Buyers follow through on last week’s strong close with some continuation Monday. Then look for sellers to emerge by Wednesday. Then a battle for control into the weekend.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Markets were closed Monday in observation of Junteenth. Buyers made a strong move at the Tuesday open only to see it faded the rest of the day and overnight. Buyers were strong again on the open Wednesday. Then a choppy Thursday gave way to a strong rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

After three consecutive weeks of risk off rotations away from equities we saw a strong surge back into risk. Except for energy which continues to trade independent of the overall equity complex.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Five weeks back bulls regained control of money flows in a meaningful way. Three weeks ago that control was reclaimed by sellers.

Then last week buyers dominated. We appear to be in a zone where both buyers and sellers are aggressively battling for control.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Picture a bit clearer, but not much.

Two weeks back all the stars aligned for a plunge lower. Last week was quite murky.

Now we have a few factors clearing up. It is month end. New flows are likely on deck in the coming week. We discovered a strong bid last week, creating a much less ambiguous picture.

Expectations are for that week ending strength to carry through into the upcoming week. Then we’ll look for sellers to reemerge since we have an RCS signal.

The sellers may not show. We’ve had six months of downward price action. Friday the Fed bankers were hitting the wires with extremely hawkish sentiment yet prices rallied.

The new month/quarter kicks in Friday. So there is potential for ‘mark up’.

For these reasons we’re giving the bulls an edge into the week despite the bearish signal out of IndexModel.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers follow through on last week’s strong close with some continuation Monday. Then look for sellers to emerge by Wednesday. Then a battle for control into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Room for upside even in discovery down

Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets. Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum

Transports have a clear downward channel. Yet there is room for some upside both in the channel and before hitting any levels that formerly behaved as support (areas that have potential to be resistance). The lower timeframe appears set up to drift a bit higher.

See below:

Semiconductors still have a gap in play down below, but similar to transports we have room for some upside on the lower time frame.

Ether has had a few strong moves upward these last few days. This is a messy chart, which means we could be coming into balance.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish after being neutral on the prior report.

It was Bunker Buster two reports ago. This was the fourth Bunker Buster in recent history.

The four Bunker Busters hit, two weeks  back, nine weeks ago, twenty-two reports back and a third thirty reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world.” – Musashi Miyamoto

Trade simple, enjoy

Comments »

First of all happy Juneteenth lads. We do Juneteenth big here in the city. Not so much your humble narrator Raul, but the community really rallies.

Dear and kind and very humble and strong Raul simply keeps his head down, poking dirt and making plants pop out of it. An observer and a grower.

Oh and happy Father’s Day to those who celebrate.

We’re doing Father’s Day big this year so I must be brief. There is a certain luxury hotel development sister Raul is helping to build and we’re going on a bit of a tour. Then familia style dinner at a nice daigo eatery then I can return to Mothership and die for a few hours before the markets resume lopping -5k off my net worth every 4-to-6 hours.

Some may wonder aloud and silently in bed, “Why does dear and patient Raul simply ride price lower? When he has such clairvoyance and tape reading prowess?”

The fact is I am busy lads. I made my bed and I am not one to abandon a project. That’s the difference between me and these no dang good hipster gardeners. They go in guns blazing year one, putter out year two, pine for volunteers year three and before you know it they’re commies with hideous gardens.

Working the earth is awful and hard especially at a small scale. You need to be stubbornly persistent. It takes two years to activate the land and then things become slightly easier.

Anyhow this is year two and I am absolutely crushing it in the fields. Managed to germinate ma sweet corn in six days through several 90+ degree day scorchers.

Despite heavy use of sunscreen I have taken on a dark olive hue that makes me look like I’m from the old country. My hair is long, ma muscles are solid and my beard is black.

And grey.

More and more grey lately thanks to prevailing market conditions.

My plan is simple. I will accumulate the things I like, consistently. Call me crazy, but I bought more ethereum last week and I plan to buy more this week too.

Also plan to buy more Big Tech. Why not? It’s the end of the world and these juggernauts will be fine.

I suppose I better go back to working the futures markets soon. The giant pile of cash I sleep on at night grows restless.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, June 19th 2022

And now the 391st strategy session.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/20/22 – 06/24/22

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.43, medium bear. Expect sellers to remain in control early in the week. Then watch for remarks from Fed chairman Powell to potentially pivot the tape Wednesday or Thursday.

U.S. markets will be closed Monday, June 20^th in observation of Juneteenth

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Gap down into the week then heavy selling through Monday. Rally Wednesday post-FOMC 75 basis point rate hike. Reversal back to the lows Thursday. Choppy and balanced Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Third week of complete risk off rotation away from the equity complex.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Four weeks back bulls regained control of money flows in a meaningful way. Two week that control was reclaimed by sellers.

Last week’s ledger was dominated by sellers.

bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

No man’s land

Last week we had a clear reading for low. Heading into this holiday-shortened week the picture is murky. All three contextual charts are in discovery down mode but could certainly spend a few days rallying without changing the downward picture.

IndexModel is neutral.

All the signals firing out of Stocklabs on June 10^th basically have 50/50 odds.

Seems like the type of week to observe from a distance, take any directional profits and wait for the signals to realign.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect sellers to remain in control early in the week. Then watch for remarks from Fed chairman Powell to potentially pivot the tape Wednesday or Thursday.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery down

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break in balance, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

Market are most often in balance.

Every week this newsletter uses auction theory to monitor three instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index, PHLX Semiconductor Index and ethereum. Readers are encouraged to apply these techniques to all markets.

Transports are channeling lower.

See below:

Semiconductors are channeling lower and there is a potential magnet back at the open gap left behind on 11/04/2019.

Ether probed the abyss. Saw additional weakness Saturday. Discovery down until we see a major up day.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is back to neutral.

It was Bunker Buster last report. The fourth in recent history.

We were rose colored sunglasses bearish two reports back after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses neutral three weeks back after four consecutive weeks being neutral. We went Bunker Buster eight weeks back after three consecutive rose colored sunglasses bearish signals after two consecutive weeks of extreme RCS bullishness.

We’ve had four Bunker Busters in recent history, last week, eight weeks ago, twenty-one reports back and a third twenty-nine reports back.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“We’re never gonna survive unless we go a little crazy.” – Seal

Trade simple, persevere

 

Comments »