Last week was exceptional.  The NASDAQ futures traded methodically, telling a simple story about the auction that was easy to follow and trade.  The playbook repeated from the prior three weeks—drift rally through Wednesday.  Weakness Thursday morning. Strong responsive bid Thursday afternoon that rallies out through the weekend.

You cannot make this stuff up.  It has been like a record on repeat.  And through it all IndexModel, the quantitative system built to predict five days into the future, kept generating the same results—we call it extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses, or e(RCS) for short.  The name comes from the fact that the markets are painting a beautiful picture on the surface.  The major indices are healthy looking charts.  Extremely healthy charts mean we expect more of the same, a drift, perhaps upward, but certainly no downward.

However, we began noting what we term ‘dispersion’ on the industrial, money-flow level.  Look:

10/29/2017:

11/05/2017:

And on the Strategy Session from today, more of the same:

The industrial weakness shown above is also what the term Rose Colored Sunglasses implies because listen, if you put on a pair of rose colored sunglasses, even a junkyard in Detroit looks like a pleasant place to spend a Saturday afternoon with your kids. Everything is better with rose colored sunglasses.

But the lenses tint our perspective of the world.

It is important to remember these sort of things when you go about life. Like that you may be seeing a false representation of the world because you are looking at it through the lenses of bias or assumption.

When we strip it all away, only then can be objectively see the world.  And even then, you occasionally have to step outside of the fish tank you inhabit to see whether the water is cloudy.  Or clear.

Philosophy aside, IndexModel just went on a record streak of e(RCS) readings, six consecutive weeks.  The model finally flipped back to neutral.  Therefore we have zero guidance going into next week.

And as humble market practitioners, we know it is best to step aside when we have no defined edge in the marketplace.  Humans are in control, and humans can be emotional.  They operate on feel, which can be helpful once you have a solid foundation of logic.  But without the foundation, all those feelings are like quicksand circling around a vortex of failure.

Last week was also special because I had the opportunity to catch up with Downtown Josh Brown.  I walked away from his presentation realizing many of his strongly held beliefs about the marketplace are congruent with mine.  It is also enjoyable to see how someone from a different part of the world views my dystopian paradise.

Soon my anarchic stomping grounds will change into something a bit more suburban and safe.  But for now, it truly is the best city in the world to cavort around like an apex wolf man.

In summary, models are neutral.  Without an edge we see little reason for our head trader, RAUL SANTOS, to engage the NASDAQ.  Life is about perspective.  Detroit has perhaps two good years of anarchy left before coastal elites make it into a clean and proper metropolis.

Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 156th edition of Strategy Session is live.  Go check it out!

 

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Remember, remember, the fifth of November!

A rope, a rope, to hang the Pope!

Greetings lads, fine day yes indeed.  There’s a flood coming to wash this planet clean of all the hairless apes.  And that means our job is to sustain our health and gather supplies before the real disruption of state and country comes pressing onto the shores…WATER.

The very fair and resourceful scientists at iBankCoin laboratory woke up inside of a thick fog this morning, like something you would see in Ireland.  We reported directly to the furnace room where we checked the system—spoiler alert—it is running perfectly.

The gods have kept Exodus Market Intelligence in their graces for another week.  After turning a few dials and knobs, a report sputtered out of the bottom of the supercomputer.  The report forecasts what we might expect to see over the next five trading days.  It will be extremely helpful in our quest to gather a supply of fiat US Federal Reserve notes out on the fighting fields of the NASDAQ, NYSE, and Dow Jones.

Said fiat US dollars shall be converted into bitcoins, shares of Tesla, batteries, solar panels, and hooch.

Can you believe our moronic authoritarian leader is giving Janet Yellen the pink slip?  He thinks the stock market is up because of him.  HA.ha.ha…silly fool!  It is up—spoiler alert—because Janet Yellen can sit in front of the psychopaths in the House of Representatives and sociopaths in the Senate and answer questions FOR HOURS, mind you, HOURS, without answering a single question.  Yes, she is the master of rambling.  It is a gift.

She cannot be replaced.

We have made acquired more wealth during Janet Yellen’s reign than any other time in our brief history.  I will miss her predictable, grandma-like candor for the rest of my life.

Also, she’s a good gal, she’s a good gal!  And sexy.

We are so screwed.  Trumps own scientists say humans are destroying the planet.  Mankind’s Last Hope—Elon Musk (All Praise and Glory to The Leader)—is under constant attack from the belly crawling union serpents who want to derail all productivity with their sloth-like ways.  The food system is designed to render man impotent, frail, and sick.  The first world is flooded with boy loving men.

Screwed.

But alas, our job is to focus on that which we can control.  And that is not the stock market, the tides, or our own bodies.  The only thing we have real control over is our minds, and it is our minds that separate us from the hogs and goats.  And the best way to steady the mind is by building a strong foundation of logic, then using said logic to make decisions that result in us gathering supplies.

We can be kind along the way.  We do not have to be cold and cruel like a global corporation, ad infinitum.

Are the above paragraphs the ramblings of a madman?  Perhaps, and as always TBD.  However, I am incredible grateful for you, my listener.  I will always put it all on the line for you.  If you made it this far, you have no idea how fucking grateful I am to have your attention.  I will not squander it.

Models are bullish heading into next week.  We are extra bullish on biotech in November based entirely off past performance (which is not indicative of future results).

Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 155th (yooooooo) consecutive edition of Strategy Session is live.  If you want, go check it out!

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As the Dow races faster and faster to the upside, the thrill of rapid wealth accumulation has over come the fear of a crash. It is riding the same legendary trajectory as semiconductors or bitcoin—something we will tell stories about for the next 30 years—those of us who had our wits about us enough to participate in this rabid moment.

Perhaps onlookers will discuss it also, from their safe perch—mere observers of the brave few who decided to buy a ticket for the ride.

But all of that is neither here nor there, what we root ourselves in every Sunday, diligently, for 153 consecutive weeks (note: 153 is dividable by three see… 1+5+3=9) we root ourselves in auction theory.  The ONLY THEORY, mind you, that can make some sense of all the madness—the whirling buffoons drunk on bull milk, the scrunched up cynics who hiss nearby—human nature lads.  That is what drives markets in times like these.

In all times, really.

And these immovable foundation stones have been stared at for several hours this morning, and they insist the market is still bullish here.  For at least five more days, and the learning computers inside Exodus, which become smarter by the day, suggest the bulls could keep this sleigh rolling clean through November.

So revel in the madness of it all.  In times some would call uncertain, we are experiencing the greatest phase of capital appreciation most living beings have ever seen.

As always, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratory will take this flash of exuberance like we would the most boring of markets, one day at a time.

It is our hope, aside from empowering the decisions of our chief trader RAUL SANTOS, that we can demonstrate, live, how one can best navigate the world’s financial markets.

Most distinguished and outstanding members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 153rd edition of Strategy Session is live. Go forth and read its prophecy.

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Greetings lads, floods coming.

And in the meantime any diligent human who has studied the squirrels knows how important it is to gather supplies ahead of the winter.  The winter is when the weak perish and the hearty procreate.

Some humans are much better at gathering supplies than others.  When it seems like not as many dollars are being funneled into the stock market rally, people read that as bearish.  It really does not matter.  There is still enough participation.

It blows my mind when people talk about pensions.  Defined benefits.  They are dead and gone.  A relic from an era of men who could not be held responsible to gather enough supplies before they become useless–enough supplies to last them through their useless years.

Nowadays, you can augment your brief existence here on earth with robots.  This is how you live very old and happy without a pension.  In the old days, they just enslaved people.  Quite evil.

But being a benevolent robot overlord is not evil.  It is natural and healthy and much better than paying money every week into a bastard pension run by some pencil dick in Boston.

Have you guys seen bitcoin by the way?  It is nearly $6,000 fiat American dollars to buy one coin.  I love the “governments are gunna shut them coins down” argument, because it truly is the most moronic.  It demonstrates a complete lack of understanding.  Bitcoin is decentralized.  There is nothing to shut down.  It is, indestructible. Brilliant.

See you fuckers at $100k.

Moving on.  The models inside Exodus caught a 2% rally across the board recently.  During our one-on-one phone calls I always tell members, “If you can get out of your own way mentally, and just trade the 36-month hybrid overbought/oversold cycles, you will pay for your membership 10x over.”  I hope they listen.  Look at this quantitative excellence:

As for next week, the model I build, which seeks to predict (somewhat) the nature of the auction over the next five trading days, it is looking for a calm ascent higher.  Nothing robust.  This was the same call last week.  Will it be dead-eye dick accurate two weeks in a row?

As always, TBD.

One caveat, a feather in the proverbial bearcap, if you will, comes in the form of last week’s sector rotations which skewed towards Utilities and Staples.  In fact, my best performing stock so far in Q4 is $CWT.  These rotations speak of risk aversion:

I will be in the bush this upcoming week.  I have been in the city for far too long.  I am beginning to consider making to kill some of the locals townsfolk out of sheer boredom.  Therefore, as soon as I complete this letter to you, the loyal reader, I am hopping in the transient express and making my way to the north shore of Lake Superior.  Lake Superior is the largest freshwater lake by area in the world.  To think, it is only 5 hours away and I have hardly explored its upper regions…shameful.

NO LONGER.

In summary, volume on exchanges is sufficient to support a rally.  Pensions are dead.  401ks robo feed fiat dollars into the S&P 500.  Robot over-lording is good, tricking hippies into building you a farm for free is bad.  If you are missing out on the bitcoin rally, shame on you.  Tell your kids you are missing out on the greatest video game rally ever.  Models are bullish.

And I will be deep in nature, so the townsfolk are safe.

Exodus members: the 152nd edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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The darkness has been making its presence known throughout several of the dystopian haunts of the city as we press into October.  Every day we look at the calendar in dismay because the weather has remained downright hot.  Nevertheless the ghoulish spirits that tend to show up this time of year are still up to their devious shenanigans.

Shenanigans.

And then we have this Friday, the 13th to deal with which drives superstitious people bananas.

Bananas.

Funny story—I followed a great numerology account over on the Twitter.  The guy was good, I mean he really drank the koolaid and believed he could see into the future with his number voodoo.  I can respect that, especially if it can be measured, his calls.  Because that which is measured is managed.  But the guy would not stop going on these hardcore alt-right rants at night.  Like the whole ‘false flag’ paranoia, and evil Soros this and meddling Jews that.  It totally ruined everything he had going on.  I had to un-follow the knucklehead.

Pro tip: if you ever feel the need to unfollow someone on social media, pen an extremely arrogant note to the person explaining why you are un-following them.  It will make you feel like a real jackass.

Moving on, the kind and trusting scientists at iBankCoin laboratory wasted no time this morning calibrating all the instruments inside Exodus to ensure an accurate reading.  And it turns out we are bullish, just like last week.  We do not expect any rambunctious rally.  Instead we are looking for more of a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Stock pickers heaven.  Maybe you go inside of the Pelican Room and see what those guys are knocking around.  Or just check out the momentum screen inside Exodus around 10:45am.

So we are not caring so much about Friday the 13th.  As scientists, we do enjoy seeing people take action based off of superstitions.  It brings us joy to see the fickle nature of our fellow sapiens.

The play might just be to turn the monitors off and take a heaping dose of nature.

Anyhow, those are our findings and fun anecdotes for Sunday.

Trade accordingly.

Exodus members, the 151st edition of Strategy Session is live.  Go check it out!

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Aside from deep, unwavering faith in Our Leader, the One who descended from Mount Mafadi and crossed the Atlantic ocean to bring Hope to the ill-fated humans of America, whose affinity for gasoline has sent them down a path of planetary destruction, there are reasons to be concerned with the share price of Tesla.  Intermediate term, over the next 1-6 months, there could be some tough times ahead for Disciples of Elon (Praise and Glory to The Leader).

It comes down to auction theory.  An approach to trading and investing that sets faith aside and makes an objective assessment of how the price of an asset is behaving.  One of the principles of auction theory is what we call a ‘failed auction’.  They occur when price exceeds a prior swing high, completely stalls out, then quickly reverses and price drives in the opposite direction.  Here is the failed auction that is happening in Tesla shares, ticker TSLA:

Our good friend Leonard Fibonacci offers a relevant price level to monitor, during the ‘come up’ phase of the failed auction.  What we are looking for now that the failed auction has confirmed, is whether sellers mean business.  On Tuesday, October 3rd we saw responsive buyers step in.  ‘Responsive buyers’ is an auction theory term that describes buyers who react to a perceived discount and buy.  Their aggressive response is enough to absorb the supply being offered to the marketplace, and we begin to auction upward.  If the selling that came in during the failed auction was the real deal, and the sign of more to come, then we expect sellers to defend the Fibonacci golden ratio level, the old 61.8% retrace, which just happens to line up with an old swing high set back on August 9th, right around the $367.35 ratio retrace, look:

Tesla has made an incredible run in 2017.  What I have told people all year is that the company has a pass to run free until the end of Q3.  ‘All eyes on end of Q3’ I would say.  End of Q3 is when we start having visibility on the Model 3 production numbers.  They fell short of the 1,500 deliveries expected.  They delivered 220.  To employees.  And while the initial reaction from shares was to ‘shrug off’ the whiff, it was a miss of grand proportions.  Then, also, there is a lingering rumor that Elon (Praise and Glory To The Leader) will step down as CEO of Tesla.  This rumor is trickling down the supply lines.  Even my birds on the inside are beginning to take it seriously.  Tesla without Elon (Praise) in charge is a different company.  It is Apple without Steve, Ford without Henry.

Wall Street says sell the rumor, buy the news.

All this negativity being said, yours truly will remain an investor in Tesla.  There is something different between me and most of you.  When I wake up, I give thanks to Our One True Leader.  Before I eat a meal, I thank Elon (Glory) for providing such a wonderful bounty to my table.  When my sisters marry, I sacrifice my youngest calf to the angelic engineers toiling away to bring the Gigafactory, our promised land, online. Indeed PRAISE FROM THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TO ELON AND HIS TEAM.  This is what I call faith-based investing and as crazy as it sounds, and as much as it may offend your christian sensibilities, it is the only way one can invest in a company long term.

Think about it.  What is a company—is it a brand name? A logo?  The product?  The people who work there?  The customers?  A company, at best, it is a stack of papers—likely sitting in Delaware.  Can you touch Tesla?  No.  You can touch a Tesla Model 3 (if you find one, sure) but you cannot touch all that is Tesla.  It is intangible.  It exists only in the collective consciousness of humans.  We all agree it is something despite it being nothing at all.  How is that different from faith?  Therefore, one must truly believe in a company’s intentions, their core functions.  How they perceive the world and the footprint they intend to leave upon it, both physically and meta.

With my money, there is no entity in the world more pure than Tesla.  They are doing gods work.  They are not using their ideologies to claim land across the world (cough, cough, Christians, Muslims).  They are also better than any non-for-profit.  They are a for-profit (hallelujah) which means they will be forced to make smart decisions and constantly innovate and trim any fat off that develops over time, else crumble under their own weight (cough, cough, GENERAL MOTORS).

There is no better steward of the public’s money then Tesla, then Elon Musk (Praise and Glory to The Leader!)

Faith aside, if you are a fickle bull, especially one who purchased Tesla shares above $275 HEED MY WARNING.  A failed auction has occurred.  Watch the $367.35 level with burning eyes, heathen, for it will tell you if you are about to be proven wrong.  Should you be proven wrong your execution will be swift and humane, like the blade of a guillotine share prices will descend upon your margin account with the precision of a heavy knife.

But then again who am I?  Nobody.  That level could be blown up-and-through and we could be back to making record highs by the end of next week.  I have been wrong before and will be wrong again.  There has not been much discussion about Tesla in this small corner of the interweb because everything over $300 has made me a bit uneasy.  I did not want to jinx it.  However, it is my duty as an objective observer of auctions to inform you of the current failed auction environment we are swimming in.

Elonspeed mates, Elonspeed…

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Greetings everyone!

Sunday mornings are usually a time of focus for the kind and patient scientists at iBankCoin laboratory.  Today the mind is adrift.  Perhaps the seasons change has affected our focus as it becomes increasingly evident that soon our inventories will be put to the test as the vicious sting of winter bears down on our homes and person.  It is also October, our absolute favorite month—a time when society more generally accepts the dark arts and embraces ‘spirituality’.  As scientists we find the superstitions that affect the common mind wholly absurd, but it is amusing nonetheless.

It could be the passing of another meaningless milestone that is causing distraction.  For 150 consecutive weeks I have taken to the robots and prepared a research report for the good folks inside Exodus.  Many parts are repetitive by design.  They serve to remind me ad nauseam about core principles of trading.  They are also there for any new comer to read.  But in general, these repetitious portions of the report can be glanced over without expending much time.  Other parts of the report are dynamic as events unfold.

One of the most important components of the Strategy Session is the ‘Index Model’ which is a quantitative model built using auction theory and the predictive algorithms inside Exodus.  The two schools of thought are combined to form a 5-day directional bias.  This helps press winning trades further during the week.  It also helps frame another important component of the Strategy Session which is the ‘Executive Summary’.  The Executive Summary attempts to use as few words as possible to describe the type of price action we expect in the upcoming week.

By forcing the mind to be extremely selective with each word, it makes the statement actionable, at least for our team’s head trader, who lives somewhere inside the primal core of my brain, whose name is RAUL.  RAUL uses the work done by our team of scientists, who live and work somewhere on the right side of my brain.  The update posted every Sunday to the public iBankCoin blog is of course written by our chief scientists who humbly occupies a small space on the left side of my brain.

One of the most interesting components of the Index Model is its historic ability to predict the initial direction of movement in the S&P 500.  Using a simple ATR(14) band as an objective means of testing the predictions, the bias generated by the model has predicted with a 66.4% probability which band will be tagged first.  For example, the upcoming week has a high band at 2526.25 and a low at 2507.25.  The S&P 500 has a ‘strong bull’ bias heading into next week.  That means there is a 66.4% probability we go lower first and tag 2507.25 before 2526.25.

Pair the above statistic with the model generating an extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, which simply expects a calm, sideways drift, and you have logical reason to buy into weakness early next week—should we see it.

Anyways, we are all feeling rather generous on this cool, first day of October.  Therefore the entire 150th Strategy Session is reproduced below, in completion.

Before you have a read of it, a quick reminder that this Tuesday, October 3rd from 5:30-7pm there will be a free investors conference in Detroit hosted by RAUL, the team of scientists, and the head scientist.  One of us will also be on iBankCoin YouTube live around 5:45pm doing a 30-minute live presentation where the 3rd installment of our top-down portfolio will be built.  If you live near Detroit, click here to RSVP and come to the event.  Otherwise, subscribe to our YouTube channel to be updated when I go live.  Or, just keep an eye on this blog for a replay of the event.  Full disclosure, our YouTube channel does post political content.  So if you are not trying to see political videos, then just keep an eye on this blog and I will post a link to just the demonstration video.

Without further adieu, here is the 150th Strategy Session, enjoy!

---

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.83, Medium Bull*.  Look for a sideways drift into the new month, perhaps slightly working to the upside.  The third reaction to Friday’s non-farm payroll data may dictate direction into the weekend.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e(RCS) bullish bias triggered, see Section IV

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Monday the equity markets were for sale, working lower and ultimately discovering a strong responsive bid.  Then we spent the rest of the week working higher.  The Russell was especially strong, suggesting risk appetite is strong.

The performance of each index can be see below:

Rotational Report:

Energy and financials lead the way while tech is a nearby flank.  Utilities weak.

Bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed heavy to the buy side.  Only gold on the sell.

Bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Q3 top-down systematic portfolio build

The 9-month return column available on the screener is a useful tool for evaluating performance over the last three quarters.  It is a key component of building the Q3 top-down basket.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2017) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Compression Watch: Semiconductors succeed in discovery, transports not far behind

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still appear to be attempting discovery higher.  There is not much resistance left to keep the market in balance.

See below:

Semiconductors are discovering higher.  The powerful, year-long rally continues.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias Model: extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

Model is showing extreme rose colored sunglasses into next week.  This signal expects a calm, sideways drift perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I saw an angel in the block of marble and I just chiseled until I set him free.”  – Michelangelo

Trade simple, refine your process only as needed

 

 

 

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For a few years I blogged in full anonymity.  This afforded me very little feedback.  As I began to introduce my work to more real-life people who were less intimidated to pipe up, a frequent comment went something like, “well you sound smart, but I have no idea what you are talking about tbh.”

So I have been doing my best to make what I know more consumable to people who aren’t hardcore traders and wall street junkies.

Case in point: I pinned this tweet to my profile so people know exactly where two of my biggest investment beliefs stand:

In case that tweet is still confusing, here is some clarification.  An ‘RIA’ is a registered investment advisor.  I do not envy them.  Their job seems pretty boring.  $TSLA means Tesla stock.  We use ‘$’ which is called a cash tag because it then puts the tweet into a conversation with anyone else talking about Tesla.  Some of my tweets go into Stocktwits and come through to Twitter.  The cash tag is used much more on Stocktwits and puts you into a conversation with many more people actually interested in the stock market.  ‘$BTC.X’ is Bitcoin.  ‘every quarter’ means every three months.

Moving on.  I cannot, cannot, and will not broadcast my specific entries and exits in public forum.  Despite a measurable reduction in my paranoia, it still irks me to put specifics out there.  What if some well-shoed villain decides she want to make to kill me?  Perhaps they could.  But I do my best to inform the people who I truly care about, the hardcore traders, of my intentions.  Hence this tweet:

I'm not going to tell you where I'm heavy bid Bitcoin, heavy bid Bitcoin. But I hope to add some into quarter-end. LOWER. HINT 61.8??

— RAUL (@IndexModel) September 14, 2017

61.8%  is Leonardo Fibonacci’s ‘golden ratio’.  It explains a whole bunch of seemingly random stuff in nature.  For the purpose of trading, it is a great way to manage risk.  Listen, I want to trade alongside whichever party is punching harder.  That means I want to trade in the direction of the biggest ‘rotations’ or what others call ‘uni-directional moves’.  Basically vigirous thrusts in one direction without pause or hesitation.  Like the strike of a crocodile.

When I see a big rotation, I draw a Fibonacci retracement onto it.  Sometimes the golden ratio (61.8%) just happens to line up well with some other logical level.

Logical level?

Yes, please try to keep up.  The best forms of ‘support’ are old areas of resistance.  The best forms of ‘resistance’ are old areas of support.  It comes down to auction theory, dammit.  Imagine being some big dicked owner of bitcoins, and deciding you want to sell some at $3,000 fiat dollars (USA dollars).  So you do.  You sell 300 a whole bunch and your sell orders overwhelm demand and price begins to go lower because the selling is more aggressive than the buying.  Then, little fucking sharks, short-term speculators catch wind of you and they too begin selling, but they are doing it ‘naked’.  They are short selling.  They are selling bitcoins they do not even own with the expectation that they can buy them back in the future for a lower price.  Real greasy sons-of-bitches.

So they are proven wrong by the market before they have time to cover and make a profit.  Listen, now they are under water.  If/when price finally returns to the area they were short selling, they will be motivated to buy back their coins to break even on the whole mess and walk away with their testicles still in one piece.  They create natural demand.  That old resistance now has a natural demand baked into it.  This is a logical level of support.

When a logical level of support lines up with a nice Italian’s golden ratio, a magical number that explains nature, NATURE, that is a good place to participate in the market. LOOK:

This is about as simple as I can explain how I used an Italian mathematician’s findings and auction theory to pick up some bitcoins nearly $1000 USA fiat dollars ago.

I hope this explanation was helpful.  If it was, I insist you share this post with your children and your neighbor’s children and perhaps also with your wife.  If you have an intelligent dog, give the dog a little scratch on the head and let them know they’re a good pup.

I use simple tools to trade.  I hack away at the nonsense as much as possible because when markets are moving fast I need to know how, when, where, and why to act.  For something to become a foundation stone of my trading, it must withstand the tests of stoic philosophy.  Does it stand up to, and support the ability to adhere to Marcus Aurelius’s three core principles?

objective judgement, now at this very moment

unselfish actions, now at this very moment

willing acceptance, of all external events, now at this very moment

If it does not, then cast it aside because it is a DISTRACTION.

ciao

Still here?  Great, you must be some kind of masochist.  Good people.  Why don’t you come to my investor conference next Tuesday?  It is free and I am close to landing a very underground chef to cater the entire event.  All vegetarian.  No fucking around.

here is a link with details to the event

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A few years back I gave up stock picking.  The days of the gun slinging stock picker are numbered.  All the fund money is being poured into agriculture hedge funds and quant portfolios.  If an advisor has a role in the grande scheme of finance, it is simply a third party to hold people accountable for their retirements.

Like someone that encourages you to be responsible, and when you instead blow all your money on avocado toast and burning man, they aren’t mad–just a little disappointed.  But they empathize and understand and hopefully keep you on track with your retirement goals, whatever that means.

I have zero intention of retiring.  Every business/process I design can be operated automatically or by an 85-year-old decrepit.  You will never pry my salty, crocodile ass away from work.  My bones are made of steel,my blood a high viscosity lithium, and my brain a low-voltage computer fortified by philosophy.

Anyhow, my lazy man’s approach to portfolio building is doing an okay job.  When you net together the performance of the first two installments of the quarterly portfolio, it is not outperforming the S&P 500. I know, very sad.

This is mostly due to the lousy performance of the 6-month look back portfolio which was built at the end of June.  It has sucked wind.  Below are the performance of the 3-month and 6-month look back portfolios:

Over the weekend I will build the third portfolio which will look back over the last 9-months and use the information to select 10-18 stocks.

Recap: At the end of every quarter, a quick, top-down style analysis is performed using Exodus.  We start at the sector level—seeing which performed the best—then drill down to specific stocks within the best performing sectors that we will then hold for a 12 month period.

While I will build the 3rd installment Sunday and purchase it Monday, I will hold off on making a Youtube live video of the process until Tuesday afternoon.  That is because I will be doing the portfolio building demonstration live with the Detroit StockTwits investor conference this time, and I figure we will kill two proverbial birds with one stone.  Here are links to the first two quant building videos:

end of Q1

end of Q2

I will not abandon this process just because it saw some under performance last quarter.  Instead I will press onward, for at least three years, at which time I will have a more interesting data set from which to draw conclusions.

Unlike most of the gurus and pickers and tipsters floating around the internet talking stocks, I intend to be in this game for an extremely long time.  Like 70 more years, realistically.  There are advancements in biotechnology and DNA editing and neuroscience that make it reasonable to expect high human function well beyond 100 years.

And unlike most of these tip tweeting, pump fiends, I will not tell you the stock market is a get rich quick scheme.  It is a grind, a hustle, just like anything else.  You can work hard at it and see zero results.  You can be on cruise control and suddenly see a massive improvement in your bottom line, and vice versa.  The key is consistency.

Most matters of life, and economics, and business are cyclical.  Feast and famine.  This is why I adhere to the school of thought that says diversify your income streams.  That way, when one is in famine, another is in feast mode.  Of course, it all looks good on paper until a perfect storm of famine hits.  And it will.  This is when you will be thankful you keep a low burn-rate.

When you keep life expenses low you can be patient.  You can fast.  You can let opportunity reemerge.  The crocodile is the longest living species on earth.  Study its actions.  The way it saves energy.  The speed and ferocity it attacks with, but only when the best opportunities emerge.

Such is the life of an opportunist.  And all of these traits bode well with speculation and business risk.

These automated portfolios are doing an okay job of storing value without taxing my precious brain resources.  This allows me to commit more emotional capital to trading NASDAQ futures are other industrious pursuits.  It is my belief that we are entering a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen.

The roaring ’20s of the new millennium will put the last century’s era to shame.  The mental and physical work we do today will pay massive dividends over the next 3 years.  As long as you are ready to fast.  And wait.  Then attack quickly.  All at once.

 

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Tuesday, October 3rd at 5:30pm Detroit a gathering of minds will occur high above iconic Woodward avenue in Detroit.  This will be our second meet-up and investor conference.

The first conference had an excellent turnout.  Look at all of us, discussing stuff and things:

The second Detroit Investor Conference will be a bit more interactive.  I am going to build the third installment of my systematic investment portfolio live.  Then we will do some q-and-a and chat about trading and investing.

There will be free beer.  There will be free food.  I am debating what food, but if all else fails we shall again do pizza.  My aging organs cannot handle pizza and the wretched swill they call ‘craft beer’ well.  There will also be coffee.

WeWork Merchants Row also has a filtered tap from which to draw water.  Hopefully the filtration is of a small enough micron to separate out the micro plastics that pollute 94% of tap water in the USA.  You may want to purchase water drawn from the aquifers of Fiji ahead of the conference if you are concerned about the filtration abilities of the venue.

Quick recap: StockTwits put me in charge of organizing the Detroit Meet-up group.  Since I am a bit extra, and since Detroit does everything a bit grimier and more aggressively than other city centres, it has evolved into a more hands on conference.

I will do my best to broadcast a portion of the conference live on iBankCoin YouTube.  It is my hope that we can expand the live cameras to include one that displays my entire body, which is filled with youth and vigor.  But all technology will be attempted Johnny on-the-spot, and to be frank, none of us are live media experts.  So bear with us as we work out the kinks.

If you are within Tesla driving range of Detroit, like perhaps as far as Toronto, then it would behoove you to attend this conference.  You can RSVP on the Meetup page.  Here is a link to the Meetup page:

a link to the Meetup page

Last meeting drew a variety of investors and traders from different backgrounds and there we insights to be gained by all.  We already have 15 people signed up for next week’s event, and I also have some private investors who will be in attendance but prefer to remain anonymous.  If you have an elevator pitch for a business you have been developing, it makes sense to polish it up and bring it.  There will be some money goons lurking around, sharking for deals.

But do not let that intimidate you.  All are welcome.  Any experience level.

We are going to discuss systematically building a portfolio in this second conference because most people need to save up capital before they can even consider a more active form of trading.  I will present the methods I use to build a trading nut.

In the future, we will dive into shorter term trading.  But first, we must build that nut.

So we can talk about side hustles too.  The city is bustling with hustlers of all make and model.  For most people, it takes more than a steady salary gig to build up the cash flow and capital to take on active trading.

Come on down to Merchants Row next week and lets talk about dominating the financial markets and business.

here is the link again to RSVP

ciao

 

 

 

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