Ullr packed up his gear and spun up into the cosmos mid-last week, leaving my snowboarding crew nothing but warm slabs of ice to snowboard on when we arrived in Jackson Hole. So we packed up and headed home. I returned to Mothership around 10pmt EST Saturday night and spent this morning applying my refreshed mind to all things stock market. Now I intend to update you, the good reader of this here Humble Raul Blog (HRB) with everything you need to know heading into the first week of March.

Thank you to everyone who followed along with my adventure on Instragram (@vincalim). Your comments and music advice helped bridge the cold nights and long drives.

Okay back to work.

The President’s Day peak (and my love affair with numbers)

A couple of us around here have a suspicion that major market swings tend to occur around holidays. Something like President’s Day, where we celebrate a renowned hemp grower and wooden-toothed brawler by the name of George Warshington [sic] serves as a near-perfect platform to form a swing high. The day reminded us that we are currently being ruled by a reality teevee host and even worse, we are headed into another wretched election cycle. That’s enough to make even your most hardened speculator want to take some risk off the table. Super Tuesday is likely to be a noisy distraction, and you can bet your bippy there will be no shortage of talking heads, tweeters and attention lovers standing atop whatever soapbox they can, saying the political events of this week are responsible for stock market movement.

This is, of course, all bullshit.

Ignore the noise however you can best. My allies in times like these are numbers and data. There was a numeric oddity right before the top, much more interesting than President’s day, 02/20/2020. Isn’t that a beautiful string of numbers? Just look at it.

Regarding actionable data

Numeric mysticism aside, numbers are cold and dead and factual, and wielded properly they cut through all the nonsense and provide clarity.  Charts are simply numbers plugged into a graph. Most charts have time on the x-axis and price on the y. When used properly, they can tell a story. As I have posited for at least two years, semiconductors are the primary driver of our current secular bull market. Therefore, we can draw conclusions on how these entire stock market is likely to behave from one simple chart—the PHLX Semiconductor index. OBSERVE:

Just as I told my main squeeze, I am sorry I wasn’t around on Valentine’s Day. She received a very goth bouquet of flowers in my absence. Unfortunately, all you received were tweets of me jumping my snowboard off mountains. I am not sorry for myself for missing the big sell-off, for I was making much better use of my time, taking a long sip of ambrosia from the chalice of the gods.

As of today, heading into March, we have two simple action points for understanding the entire stock market. We have a bunch of supply trapped overhead. If (when) we revisit that shaded zone, it will likely behave as resistance, at least for a while. How the market treats those levels will tell a story. More relevant however to the upcoming week is the green line—old resistance. One the the market’s favorite pastimes is converting old resistance into support (and vice versa). Even if we slash down through this level some time next week, it is likely to assert a bid in the market.

As always, to be determined. We ought to remain flexible to the idea that the higher time frame participants will continue to liquidate their equity holdings, causing a deeper gulch to form, but I will be in the betting markets positioning for this level to hold.

Full disclosure: I have been wrong before.

System data generated by Exodus (shameless plug alert)

I am so thoroughly impressed with Exodus. I cannot offer The Fly enough praise. Bear in mind, I receive zero compensation for your paid memberships to this platform. My payment is free access, and I earn my money trading the signals generated by its mother algo. To be honest, I prefer it this way. It keeps my motives pure.

Before the top, we had a buy signal (10-day hybrid overbought bullish cycle) running from February 5th thru the 19th. I am pretty sure about 2% of our entire community took advantage of it (about the same percentage of people who can trade for a living). Its timing was sublime, allowing me to pick up the proverbial nickles in front of the steamroller. While earning +7% on a TQQQ swing trade may seem silly to most of you, had I been inside Mothership, trading opening bells on the /NQ_F, I would have been on the right side of the tape the whole time. Check out the final performance of the popular NASDAQ 100 ETF QQQ over the ten-day period:

S.H.O.M.P.

And we have another signal live now. I normally wouldn’t discuss live signals on the public blog out of respect for Exodus members, but since the cat is already out of the bag, and also since nobody seems to have the huevos to take this trade, I feel okay discussing the hybrid oversold signal in play. I bought TQQQ on Friday morning and will be holding it for nine more trading days, right up into the Thursday before OPEX—a likely brutal quad witching, where the stock market will seek to zero out as many options trading accounts as possible in one fell swoop. Since I am back in action, be sure to drop by this blog after about 9am eastern for my morning trading reports. We are going to take the action one day at a time using Gaussian curves, a data lover’s best friend.

Executing signals through economic events and news

We are headed into a heavy news and event cycle. If you are like me, you spent a good part of your weekend monitoring the coronavirus as best you could, watching hand-washing tutorials and Costco mob hysteria. That is an okay use of our time, I guess, as long as it isn’t affecting our ability to do our jobs. Coronoavirus aside, here are all the events we need to at least be aware of during the upcoming week:

• Berkshire Hathaway earnings Monday after the bell
• Super Tuesday
• Federal Reserve Beige Book Wednesday afternoon
• Costco earnings Thursday after the bell
• Nonfarm payrolls Friday before the bell

When I have a system-generated signal, it is not my job to fuss my mind with thoughts of whether or not to take the trade. My job is to execute my plan and that means taking my trades—whether they signal during the opening bell, in the middle of a scheduled economic event or earnings, during a surprise or otherwise. It is my job to be aware of these events, as best as possible, and be prepared for action to accelerate or pivot.

Christian meat withdraws

Do not forget, our competitors in the stock market are primarily folks belonging to one of the many cult offshoots of Christianity that exist here in the United States. These righteous fuckers are being forced by their faith to set aside their beloved Friday hammed burgers and steaks to prove through suffering that they are worthy of mercy from their god.

Have you ever taken meat away from a carnivore? They become aggressive and confused, like rabid dogs. Be okay with the idea of standing aside and letting these animals tear each other apart. The eastern philosophy of the aesthetics is particularly valuable in times like these. Now is an excellent time to hone your ability to sit and listen and fast.

The Christians will be safe to fatten up on disgusting bacon and ham flesh after April 12th.

Good verses evil and after market deceit

On Friday evening the Wall Street Journal reported that vulture capitalist Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. has elected four of his people to Twitter’s board of directors. Claims are being made that Paul intends to remove CEO Jack Dorsey from his position.

I have not mixed my words when it comes to Jack Dorsey. I consider him my second most significant role model behind only Elon Musk. His ability to sit in silence for months on end, his brave move to ban all political advertising from Twitter, his nose ring in Congress and simple manner of dress—the world needs more @Jack and way way waaaaay less Paul.

Twitter is my second largest investment. Shares of TWTR were allegedly higher after the bell Friday on this news. I do not put much faith in after market moves, in this instance or otherwise. I never do. Regardless, this situation demands close attention. If Twitter goes the way of Elliott Management, it puts the safety of the entire internet at risk. Jack keeps Twitter safe, and in doing so he keeps Twitter the only social media platform left for people to safely be heard.

He banned Zerohedge, and I share Joe Weisenthal’s sentiment on this matter. Mixed feelings, but in general life is too short to follow dumb dumb accounts like ZH or QTR:

You know I've got mixed feelings about zerohedge being banned. But it's important to remember how much of their stuff was complete garbage, including this, whose headline is contradicted in the first sentence pic.twitter.com/DWy7UqZ5Q0

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 29, 2020

Even tonight, Sunday, there will be temptation to pull up quotes on the futures markets. To see if prices continue to collapse. I urge you to avoid such activity. Are you going to be taking trades tonight? Does that information need to be consumed? There will be plenty of time to work these markets come Monday.

Have a good meal. Hug your family. Make love to your wife. Watch a movie or read a book. Light a fire. Exercise if you are restless. Set up your weekly to-do list. All better uses of your time.

Recent Comment

Finally I would like to address comments left on my last blog entry because I appreciate anyone who suffers their way though the Humble Raul Blog. We are a rare breed, not tethered to some company that requires us to filter our voice. Straight up speculators whose sole intent is to extract as many fiat american dollars from the global financial complex as possible, while being as kind as possible to our fellow earth inhabitants.

Juice, you asked me what good my free will is if my fate is predetermined by the gods.

I sat at a table with the gods twice on my trip, half frozen to the side of a rock, in silent contemplation with the celestial plane. By loving my fate and accepting whatever it brings, I am blessed with clarity. What good is free will if I allow life the ability to cause me suffering? Letting go of control and going with the flow allows me to have an optimal grip on reality. That way when I make my way though the world, no one’s master and no one’s slave, as Marcus Aurelius so eloquently stated, I am on the right path.

Cheers and thank you for the comment

Exodus members, while most of my convictions are outlined above, be sure to check out the 275th edition of Strategy Session, which is live now. The concentrated money flows section, in particular, is important.

 

Comments »

I want to share my high level thoughts and conviction investments before I renuciate all capitalistic pursuits in exchange for a simple life in the mountains. I will be off the grid until March.

The purose of this blog entry is to help us both gain a visceral understanding of why I have *faith* in my investments. This will serve to fortify my emotional state for when the inevitable uncertainties of long-term commitments arise, and maybe spark some ideas of your own.
The cat is out of the bag. In 2016, a reality TV host became President of the free world. A ruthless capitalist usurped career politicans to take the White House. In 2018, Bitcoin and other digital currencies established themselves as players inside the financial ecosystem.

Together these events called into question the role of nation states, their alleged leaders and the ability of these leaders to force their will upon the collective consciencness of humanity, democratically or otherwise.

Enter 2020, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has seen. We are tracking the PHLX Semiconductor index closely, which has been validating our theroy about what is driving our current economic expansion. Learning computers. Only a handful of companies are at scale and positioned to capture most of the growth. Foremost are big tech companies. Champions of the interwebs. It is becoming apparent that the CEOs of Big Tech are the true leaders of the free world and the only ones progressing society in a positive direction.

My two favorite CEOs are Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey. I hold reverance for them both and emulate them in my own endeavors. Elon puts his net worth on huge issues facing humanity and makes it sexy. Jack is a modern Cato the Younger. Humble and pure. Twitter is the subconscious inner dialogue of humanity and a must own stock. Twitter is my #2 largest position behind Tesla.

With nations and their politicians losing a grip on society, what are affluent left to do? They love having a seat at the proverbial head table. They have little choice but to take to the public markets and secure what stake they can afford in the equity of these giants. Names like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. These are conviction investments. These companies are countries, only more powerful.

Supply of quality tech equity is low. Have you ever played Monopoly? There’s only one winner. There are only a handful of companies worth owning. Their share prices no longer make sense using historic valuation methods. Those were more simple times, when businesses merely bribed or lobbied the state. Now these firms are the states.

Amazon is a ubiquitous nation that doesn’t care about the silly lines drawn on maps by humans reverting to their animalistic ways. This is Jeff Bezos’s world. We’re just living in it.

Next up is the battle for who will feed the ultimate consumer—the hungry American. Heading into the ’20s there are only a few companies at the distribution scale needed to augment the way food winds up in people’s kitchens and ultimately their bellies. Obviously there is some crossover here with Amazon, which is why Amazon is an absolute MUST OWN. A rumor is passing through one of our affluent neighborhood that the entire Kroger organization is being tailored for am Amazon buyout. The origin of the rumor is salient enough that I am all for investing in Kroger.

The other top players in autonomous grocery are Walmart and Costco. Both must owns.

Finally we circle back to digital currency. You would have to be insane to ignore this asset class. Foremost, I believe ownership of Facebook shares is necessary until we see resolution of their Libra scheme. I cannot wait until Mark Zuckerberg can reward us Libra coins for good behavior on his platforms. I believe this will put an end to fear mongering, spreading lies and hate once and for all. There is something pavlovian about our egos, even the most masculine. Look at how many rough and tough guys are going vegan after that Netflix documentary (Netflix weilds an interesting sword in modern society, but they do not make my conviction investment list). Libra could end up being the global reserve currency, should it succeed in going live. Even the toughest 8chan shit poster will fall in line for some Libra coins.

Every investor should have a portfolio of digital coins. I must admit I am not sophisticated enough to have clarity on exacty which coins. I hold bitcoin, bitcoin cash, bitcoin SV, ethereum and EOS.

There you have it. These are my high level thoughts and conviction investments. Perhaps a few weeks of sleeping on the cold earth and breathing sweet mountain air will reveal another. My fate is unknown, predetermined by the gods. Maybe while in the mountains, I will be granted a peak into the doors of Valhalla and handed stock picks from the norse gods.

Thank you for your time,

Raul Santos, February 14th, 2020

Comments »

I like the timing of this signal. Right into February. Right into a Monday where most americans are operating at seventy percent, slowed down by their big man appetite for jalapeño poppers and footballs. It is a good time to catch the drunk american flat footed.

The coronavirus was nothing compared to an IndexModel Bunker Buster. This signal hasn’t fired since 06/02/2019 and the signal before that was way back on 12/23/2018. The signal calls for price to accelerate to the downside. This can look a few different ways.

A huge gap down Monday that is accumulated all morning, marking the low for good.

The selling begins in earnest during regular trading hours, sucking in some dip buyers before the real sell hits—NASDAQ down at least -250 intra-day, likely more like -400. This sets off a multi-day sell spree. Fuckers take to CNBC entertainment news, providing the teevee audience all sorts of reasons.

Meanwhile, over here on the humble Raul blog. We simply chalk it up to the Sublime Harmony of Mathematical Precision aka S.H.O.M.P. —-a term coined by none other that SENOR TROPICANA.

I am not such an ego maniac that I will make these dire forecasts without the caveat that I may be wrong. After all, these are the roaring ’20s lads, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living being has ever seen. The drivers are Big Tech and their fearless leaders who would never doubt their vibes. Leaders who are generating GDP via autonomous flywheels that spit off money at margins in excess of anything those titans of industry could ever believe possible during the last roaring ’20s.

Anyhow the plan is simple. Don’t get cute. I will play for lower prices if we DO NOT start the week with a major gap down. I will not try and time the swing low. Instead I am going to deploy some fresh capital throughout the week, adding to my favorite stocks (TSLA, TWTR) and making an allotment to the RRF Motif.

Yes you heard me right, I am going to buy more Tesla. If you don’t like it, don’t look. You guys can mess around with ghetto coronavirus stocks, holding them for 4 days or whatever. I only buy thoroughbreds and I do so with no intention of selling ever, or at least not anytime soon.

I will sell some shares of TSLA at 1,000 but only because I want a solar roof.

You have, all of you have reasons why you invest and trade. I seriously doubt most of you dig deep into the reasons. Money, yes. Freedom, cool. For what? What will you do with it? Why?

Anyone reading this, trade’em well. This first week of February is setting up to be a real bear.

Raul Santos, February 02, 2020 (02/02/2020)

Exodus members, the 272nd edition of Strategy Session is live, be sure to check out the section on semiconductors. The picture on the PHLX is pretty clear and how we behave at the next signpost is likely to tell a story for the whole market.

 

Comments »

The quote from this week’s Exodus Strategy Session is about perfect for our current trading environment:

“There are many things of which a wise man might wish to be ignorant.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

I don’t care about the impeachment process. Yes, I care that our government is set up to reward power-hungry psychopaths and that our state corrupt, but this is beyond my control. I do not care about the impeachment.

I love love love the way Senior The Fly is covering the corona virus here on iBankCoin and out on Twitter, and I hope he and others make a mint trading the pathogen pin action. Me, I trade NASDAQ futures and long-term invest is thoroughbred stocks like AMZN, FB, MSFT, TSLA and so on. I don’t care about the corona virus. My immune system is somewhere near the apex and will make to kill any virus or germ. As I said last week, my cock and constitution are rock hard.

Ignorance is bliss. I have an explicit purpose when I sit down and trade, and that purpose is to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex. I am not here to make friends. When I publish my plans, it is to clarify my thoughts and provide valuable insight to a handful of other traders without wasting their time. Then I make my way into the NASDAQ arena, which is essentially like entering the Hunger Games. Nothing matters except executing the plan. Survival necessitates that I have an optimal grip on what moves the NASDAQ 100.

What has my attention big time is the NASDAQ Transportation index. It could be taking what I call the ‘penultimate step’ right off the springboard of a vital Fibonacci level. If you were never one of the top long jumpers in your state like Humble Raul, then you may be unfamiliar with the penultimate step. It is the final two foot placements before you launch your body into the air from a full sprint. The goal is to take two really tight steps, with the toe of your launch foot striking as close to the edge of the wooden board that separates the runway from the sand as possible. Then you fly. It maximizes the amount of your running momentum that is converted into flying. When done correctly, your two feet nearly strike the ground simultaneously.

The NASDAQ Transportation index printed this stupidly good-looking excess low Thursday. Quite possible a powerful enough penultimate step to finally launch up-and-away from the multi-year range price has been trapped in:

The more likely outcome is that gravity wins and we fall back down through the well-established range. Folks don’t realize that assets spend most of their time in balance and only occasionally go into discovery mode.

They think it’s all Tesla moments, pushing and pushing and pushing higher and higher and higher. Stick around long enough and you’ll be learned one way or another that balance is the primary mode.

Which is why you need to become good at two things—identifying balance and positioning accordingly and (more importantly) how to milk a winner for everything it has to offer. If you grab ahold of a position BEFORE it enters discovery, your greatest alley will be patience.

Most people lack patience. Our entire economy is built around making us compulsive, chaotic fools…pulled towards any new shiny thing dangled before our nose. It really blows my mind that Amazon can deliver millions of items in ONE DAY.  How are you not invested in a company that can do that?

Anyhow, I choose selective ignorance. I only take in the information that is neccecary for me to make money. The rest might as well be girl gossip. I don’t care.

One final note. Something so clean and orderly about a month completing itself on a Friday, don’t you agree? What a nice way to start the year.

Raul Santos, January 26th 2020

Exodus members, the 271st edition of Strategy Session is live. The main algo inside Exodus is behaving unlike it has in the last few years. I discuss what I think it means in Section III. Go check it out!

Comments »

Greeting lads, and an early well wishing, of a Happy Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. day to you all.

Dr. King inspired the greatest movement our country has ever seen, and despite the efforts of some to belittle the civil rights movements, or the proclivity of others to persist in the hatred of their fellow man due to race or sex or creed, here in America we are closer than ever to True Freedom and Zion.

I’ve been in the mountains for a while, high atop the peaks of the Canadian Rockies, undoubtedly the most beautiful place on earth. No longer being a tender youth, some of the side effects of age reared up while I was trekking at altitude. My knees were barking. When I crane my neck during a hunkered down mountain traverse, searing pain signals were issued from my cervical spine. During a 25 kilometer hike to a hot spring my IT band seized up, converting my gate into a trudge that would make Quasimodo blush.

But man did it feel good to send my person careening down steep cornices and couloirs with their clarity and dedication of a committed send artist. Between brave acts of physicality I read philosophy books and fiction, journaled my own altered-state thoughts with pen and paper, and did my best to operate precision photography equipment in the unforgiving wet and cold of the north.

While I’ve been back since early Monday, I’ve sort of stayed in the mountains mentally. Opting to cook soups and sip tea whilst burning thickets of incense, floating around the house in a contemplative state, tweeting occasionally along the way. Aside from caring for the people who mean the most to me, I have been sitting in silence, and reading. Studying.

Last night I did most of my research and updated Index Model. It is bullish for the eighth consecutive week.

I’ve been keeping Mothership at 52 degrees Fahrenheit.  Ever since I left the tent I haven’t been able to handle warm places. My blood is thick—my cock and constitution hard. My mind is at peace.

But I do have an important message to bring to you, noble reader of the Humble Raul blog (HRb). For many of my young developmental years as a trader, as a seeker of knowledge in the way of a consistently profitable operator, I would always reach an impasse with my mentors and peers at a critical juncture. Some called it feel, or gut. The better teachers called it context. But none of them could describe to me what context was but they all insisted it was what separated the winners from the losers. After about 15 years, I think I know why.

There are two type of knowing—-having and being. We can have a set of tools, charts and indicators and entry/exit strategies and models and bla bla bla lots of it. We KNOW what these things are. This is our KNOWLEDGE.  It is useful

Then there is being. Being a trader. Observing your emotions. The behavior of others. The interplay of your KNOWLEDGE, your tools, in real time. That listless gaze we take on when we are mindful and fully emerged in our craft. Optimal grip. Not too tight or loose. This is WISDOM. And wisdom cannot be taught. Wisdom is difficult to put into words. You must feel it, around you, around all of us. The force that delicately interconnects everything.

Depending on the path you take, that context will come to you differently. You perception is like a lens and it can deceive you. We all know those who harbor prejudice are far less likely to cut through the bullshit and see, SEE, clearly. All life is suffering, rather, all life has the ability to deceive us into forfeiting our freedom, our own reasoned choice. The only thing we truly have control over.

That’s the message I bring from the mountains.

It is good to be back and I know it can seem redundant but it is an honor to write these thoughts and know people are reading them. Thank you. Cheers, and again, Happy Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. day.

Raul Santos, January 19th, 2020

Exodus members, the 270th edition of Strategy Session is live. YOU HAVE TO be aware of what is happening on the NASDAQ transportation index. Check out Section IV, if nothing else.

Comments »

If you recall, dear and faithful reader of the Humble Raul blog (HRb), I was debating an escape to the highlands last Sunday based on the notion that silver and gold outperformed all other major asset classes two week’s back:

So when silver and gold outperform all other industry groups, like they did last week while most Americans celebrated pagan x-mas, it makes me want to pack up a few vital survival items (along with my snowboard of course) and head west—as far north and to as high an altitude as my constitution allows. To a remote outpost where I can eat canned fish, drink hooch, and observe the foolishness of the collective human conscience from a distance.

Three things have happened since then that have pulled me off the proverbial fence and into action.

The northern rocky mountains were blasted with a thick layer of fresh snow powder. Over 73 centimeters of snow fell last week (we discuss these matters in centimeters because we are not slaves to imperial rule), bringing the season total up near the 5.5 meter mark. That is over half the annual average and we are only in early January. Can you say climate change? There is more snow in the forecast.

President Donald Trump, who has been impeached mind you, ordered an airstrike in Iraq that we are being told successfully killed Qassem Soleimani, Iranian Major General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The impeached President was acting on the behalf of intelligence agencies employed by America. The whole thing stinks. Qassem, for his part, played the roll of a villain well. He wore black, is seen in several online photos sporting a sinister grimace, and has a resume that reads like an application to the Dr. Evil’s club of people who would execute Austin Powers via some elaborate and draconian means. The dominant voting base of America’s bible belt, populated heavily by calvinist Jesus freaks so isolated from reality they can be easily conditioned via around-the-clock cable news, are in awe of the President. Meanwhile the urban community and their organizers, decent folks if perhaps only a bit too emotional, condemn the action, or any action for that matter, but nonetheless are especially condemning this action. So bent up they’re busy planning their way to a rally alongside Hanoi Jane. These people want what I am sure we all want which is peace, of course. They want peace so badly they’ve nearly forgotten the President is impeached. Meanwhile, this dramatic moment is being yawned off by Wall Street, who is emboldened by the Fed’s overly-accommodative stance on the economy. The snakes of real estate finance are running advertisements in high gear, insisting every hard working middle class citizen refinance, using their home as a bank in an attempt to fill that void in their being with bourgeoisie possessions.

Third and perhaps most important—these twitter fucking people I swear to god they become more insufferable every year. OH, DID YOU MAKE BANK IN 2019 “TRADING STOCKS” AND SUCH? Congratulations, so did everyone with a smart phone who wasn’t dumb enough to A. bet against the greatest secular bull run of our lifetime or B. be tricked into gambling on short-expiration paper via a series of aggressive directional option bets. So much self-righteous trash is spewed onto my dear Twitter. Perhaps I am no better.

However, I man this humble post with the utmost seriousness. I blog as a means of clarifying my own thoughts. Of keeping a record of what my head-space was in any given moment, and what ensued during that time. Written human language is one of the most powerful psychotechnologies ever created by homosapiens. Its effect on our development as a species can be traced back to our transition out of the upper paleolithic period and into a time when humans were able to use coins as a way of cooperating in larger abstract societies.

The fact that most of these fintwitter fuckwads use the written word to sell bullshit, self aggrandize and outwardly project other disturbingly-salacious obsessions with money is unfortunately beyond my control. What I can control is how I choose to react to these matters and also how I choose to conduct myself in this space.

The stated mission of the Raul blog is to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex. Said fiat dollars will then be converted into even longer term assets. Real assets like land as far north and at as high an altitude as my constitution allows.  Said land will then be developed using brawn and steel and cement to build a self-sufficient facility with greenhouses and machines and large cisterns. Air filtration, solar and hydro electric, the whole nine yards.

I am not here to sell you on anything. I am here to demonstrate, day-after-day, week-after-week, how I go about preparing myself to compete in one of the most highly-competitive arenas in the world, NASDAQ 100 futures. Doing so as kindly as possible, empathetic to any eager new learners who stumble onto my content and immensely grateful for advanced operators who toss me the occasional wisdom bone.

My goodness have I gone on a rant and digression. This is what I am talking about and why I need to pack up and head for the hills. I prepared the Exodus Strategy session today. Saturday instead of Sunday because come sunset I will begin to travel through the night, like a gypsy. I will head as far north and to as high an altitude as my constitution allows. Once I have jettisoned my rig up somewhere into the Canadian Rocky Mountains, I will establish camp by festooning my belonging across these majestic and foreign lands. If the gods see fit, I will be granted the clarity I seek, allowing me the headspace to formulate my next move.

Best case scenario I hike and snowboard around for a while, capturing a few moments of natural splendor more life changing than any clergyman’s sermon. I sit around eating canned fish and drinking hooch, jotting a few notes into my journal.

Worst case, the Iranians retaliate, World War III ensues while my person is safely inhabiting some remote outpost up beyond the logging roads of Canada—one of the world’s last remaining frontiers.

One last thing. I put a hedge on Friday morning via SQQQ. It may have been a fool’s errand, but I shall not make myself into a coxcomb dandy, flitting around the northern territories while my stock market gains are anchored by some stupid hedge. I have left clear instructions with my China correspondent, the venerable ROBERTO BREGANTE, to close my position if the markets are higher or flat Monday. The only instance he is permitted to ping the expensive (per minute, like the 80’s) satellite phone is if markets are LOWER. In the even of lower markets ROBERTO BREGANTE has been advised to contact me and provide me quotes.

Raul Santos, January 4th, 2020

Exodus members, the 268th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!  I may not return in time to produce the 269th edition. If that happens, I will do my best to update the model when I do return. Cheers.

Comments »

You can read the title of this blog two ways—silver and gold lead (like leader) or lead like the heavy metal that is nearly worthless and sinks easily. Like Led Zeppelin. I was a huge Led Zeppelin fan when I first started college. I thought their music was edgy and heavy and much better than the prevailing rap of the mid-2000s, which was more-and-more fake gangster and often corny.

Now I am back mostly listening to hip hop, in thanks to a major resurgence of drug dealer rap and of course the wisdom and philosophy NAS. You can learn more about trading and investing from Benny the Butcher than you will from any blogger on fintwitter (save yours truly).

Anyways now when I listen to Led Zeppelin their music all sounds a bit desperate and corny. Funny how perceptions change yes yes?

So when it comes to silver and gold we know one thing and one thing only. They derive their value from little more than human perception and for some reason, these metals in particular have historically driven humans to commit wonderful and horrific acts.

I suppose it’s because gold and silver are so shiny, like fishing lures.

My only memento from my Italian grandmother, whom I only met a handful of times since she lived in Italy and I lived in AMERICA, is a gold chain with a gold lowercase letter-t charm on it. If you ask most people they will say that letter-t charm is a cross, and most would say it is a Christian cross.

Again. Perceptions.

To me it is nothing more than a charm on a chain that reminds me of a grandma I hardly knew. If I forget to take it off and go swimming in the ocean, it attracts large fish near my neck.

Not the best idea.

In general, silver and gold have a high risk of corrupting the mind and creating dangerous tendencies in humans.

So when silver and gold outperform all other industry groups, like they did last week while most Americans celebrated pagan x-mas, it makes me want to pack up a few vital survival items (along with my snowboard of course) and head west—as far north and to as high an altitude as my constitution allows. To a remote outpost where I can eat canned fish, drink hooch, and observe the foolishness of the collective human conscience from a distance.

One of the main intentions I have been meditating on these last few months is patience. Another is kindness because I have struggled with both in the past. Lately I am feeling patient and kind but also a bit too tame. There are certain matters that require bravery and action.  And after spending much of December meditating on mortality here on the old Raul blog, the matters requiring bravery have become clear.

Maybe that is why now, at 7:36am on Sunday I have already updated all my trading models for the week and am rounding the bend on another abstract entry to my public blog.

Maybe it requires bravery to not trade the upcoming week and instead focus on some more pressing matters. Or perhaps I need to hunker down and work my signals. Or perhaps the bravest move of all is to run for the hills.

I shall watch the sunrise and consider all these options.

Cheers.

Raul Santos, December 29th, 2019

Exodus members, the 267th edition of Strategy Session is live. In Section III where I usually phone in a blurb about how to use Exodus better, I wrote about a topic none of my mentors could every clearly convey to me. I did my best to convey it to you. If you have any questions about the codification I reference, let me know.

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Of course I made time to update the IndexModel and publish my latest findings to the Exodus Strategy Session. The difference between me and your run of the mill W2 employee is that I work every day, seven days, no matter what pagan holiday arises. Then sometimes I vanish into the wild for weeks on end, cut free from the chains of modern W2 slavery.

I may find some WIFI at a trade post and send a few emails and receive updates from my vital foot soldiers and correspondents.

This is the mark of a quality life. Time and again I remind the readers of this old Raul blog that time is our most finite resource. I choose to use it as carefully as I can TODAY, so I can look back and see that I’ve done my best to live life to the fullest—cultivating the experiences and routines that are the mark of a life well lived.

So of course I had to update the IndexModel. It signaled extreme rose colored sunglasses, a bullish bias indicator, for a fourth consecutive week. An observation I have made, over the last 200 weeks or so, is that after four consecutive weeks of this indicator firing there is a tendency for a rug pull, a down move, a hard sell.  This is still an observation lacking statistic significance.  We will need at least 50 samples before we can make a confident forecast.

And since it requires the signal to fire four consecutive weeks in row, to make ONE of these samples, it make take a few years before we can take action based off of it.

I am so fucking patient. I train my physical body three-to-four times a week to keep it limber and running well. I excercise my mind to stay present and able to make sound reasoned choices. For me, trading is the ultimate vocation, one that requires every bit of human ability to succeed.

I am just getting started.

My idea has always been that by journalling my path through becoming a competent and perhaps one day master trader here on the internet, that it will inspire others to trade well.  Because I feel like the more apt traders the world has, the safer it becomes. Free markets are the collective voice of reason in a world ever more consumed by bullshit.

I love seeing another American president be impeached. Every impeachment should serve as a reminder to rely on your own critical thinking and abilities.

My stated goal is simple—to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex.  As it becomes availble, said fiat will be converted into land as far north and at as high an alititude as my constituton allows.  There I will invest into cement and greenhouses and solar panels and batteries and other methods of becoming fully self-sufficient before the United States throws The Great Temper Tantrum after realizing they’ve lost reserve status to the Chinese.

For now, I will focus my time back on family and friends and the surrounding community, the true mark of a life well lived, how we nurture these relationships.

If you’ve been dropping by the old blog here for the last year, reading my Sunday diatribes, thank you. Your readership means so much to me. I hope that something I’ve rambled on about, over this year has inspired you to be a brave and patient and kind speculator, set on winning.

Cheers!

Raul Santos, December 22nd, 2019

Exodus members, the 266th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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The folks who follow along with my ongoing murmurs over on twitter are some of the finest in the land. They stuck with me through my days as a tin-hatted conspiracy theorist and maintain their following despite my transition to a Tesla cult member.

One thing is they’ve come to expect constant trading from me. Which is fine. I am a rare profiteer amid a mass of needy financial advisors, advisors who are about as familiar with trading for profit as they are courting fast women. Fintwitter is not a place for me. I’ve realized that. Nobody wants to discuss the merits of faithful long-term investing or the meticulous planning that goes into short-term execution. They want to be handed fish, one after another, in the form of wonton ticker selections.

I will have no part in stock picking, stock trading, or any of that fickle behavior. I actively trade one instrument. You would think, after all these years, that would be apparent.

If there is nothing to do than I shall do nothing. It seems to me, from the vantage point of a self-sufficient speculator with over 1,500 square feet of private headspace, that most of yous suck the most at doing nothing.

Doing nothing is an art, and when done well, it allows the universe to whisper its secrets into your ear.

Like sipping tea and staring at the sky, to catch that fleeting winter moment when the sun peaks through and washes over the fan leaves of houseplants, and how that looks. Or the way a lyric from a song seems to leap out of the noise and pierce your soul.

I am of the belief that the universe is constantly communicating with us in a playful way. But only if you listen.

If you are plagued by the hurrying syndrome, ordering your coffee via app to save two minutes of standing in quiet meditation, so caught up in the mental shit storm of thoughts, “am I a good boy?” “will my project reap blessings?” “will I receive the credit I deserve?” “why do my organs hurt so badly?” “am I disappointing my family?” then the likelihood of picking up on these divine messages is low.

So to answer your question, no, I will not resort to chasing momentum stocks or trading a balanced market at all time highs. I am not a monkey sent here to dance for you.

I will instead read fiction, take naps, casually stroll around the grocery market admiring the colorful fruit and in general sashay around town in a manner and dress that would offend most of these overworked Americans I see everywhere.

People think it is easy being a calm, extremely good looking man. And it can be if you go with the flow, realizing that all the racing around, whether as the CEO of a Fortune 500 or a junkie looking for smack, it all ends the same way in a few decades—a pile of dust and bones.

So why rush it?

I am off to perhaps send an email, water some plants, have a nice swim in the lap pool, a lunch and then a nap.

Trade’em well lads, trade’em well.

Raul Santos, December 19th 2019

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One of the things I love about trading futures contracts is the forward thinking involved. A younger Raul spent far too much time thinking about the future, worrying about the future, impatiently waiting for this supposed future I fantasized. These days I am not so caught up in these thoughts, so the contracts themselves are an interesting exercise in planning.

First of all they expire every quarter. And to obfuscate matters, they expire on the third Friday of each quarter’s final month. Then to REALLY throw off the unwashed noob, active traders switch to trading the next quarter’s contract the Thursday one week before the Friday in which expiration occurs.

LOL

So last Thursday, most active traders switched over to the March 2020 contract.  I stuck with the December 2019 contract through Friday morning, then I wrote a long post about growing up dumb, poor and catholic. Starting tomorrow, Monday, I will be trading the March contract.

The H20 contract.

Naturally, as I load this contract onto my charts my mind drifts to March. An especially dreary month March is up here in the murder mitten, but it has its own charm. Usually my mind is clear come March, due to all the time I’ve spent high atop the Rocky Mountains, breathing the thin pure air, drinking directly from its streams, eating its fish meat and all around creating head space with hiking boarding and the like.

And if that is to be the case, then I need to handle my affairs, and quickly, so I can pack up and head west.

Therefore I am off to resolve some unfinished business and make use of this fine Sunday.

Cheers.

Raul Santos, December 15th 2019

Exodus members, the 265th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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