HOW ABOUT THAT NATURAL GAS SCAM?

NATURAL GAS PRICES ARE NOW DOWN 75% FROM THE HIGHS, off by nearly half over the past year. This just goes to show, there are never any shortages of anything in this magical world of ours. We were promised Europe would freeze and Germany would go back to wheeled oxen carts — but alas there are still cars on the road in Berlin and the heat is still working all over Europe.

It would behoove you to be fooled in such a manner again. Admittedly, I was into it and wanted to see what could happen during a very cold winter — mainly out of curiosity. I am not an evil person and do not wish to see Germans freeze. Nevertheless, I waited and waited and was mildly surprised to finally see the net results of all of the chicanery — which was the exact opposite of what they told us would happen.

Oh, it would be so cold. All of the little Hungarians and Parisians alike would huddle ’round flaming barrels of trash to keep warm, all the while people in Moscow would be toasty warm, drinking beet juice and fish eggs by the natural gas fireside.

NONE OF THAT SHIT HAPPENED.

So what’s next?

Maybe we’ll have another semiconductor shortage, JUST BEFORE A 50% DROP in the SMH? Or perhaps we’ll run out of toilet paper or how about some helium. That’s right — your kids cannot have balloons because we ran out.

What about a fucking egg shortage, depriving junior of panned cakes — also because of the flour shortages — thanks to the MUHHHHH supply chain!?

Before I forget, we also have a shortage of adderall — because why the fuck not with so many ADHD’s out there. Now with people off their meds, we might see some other shortages — perhaps in ammunition or maybe couches. That’s right — it’ll take 6 months to get that fucking couch — because it’s on backorder — mainly because no one wants to work at the factory anymore.

FUCK THIS SHIT.

The Dow Jones Industrial average turned negative for the year in a bank led rout. We still have gains in all other indices, notably with the NASCRACK +11%. But the mood is, all of a sudden, glum — as the Fed rate hikes seem to be having a waning effect on inflation. We are throwing billions upon billions at Ukraine, in a flaccid attempt at preserving global hegemony and to keep an ancient spite against the Orthodox Russian people.

Today the mercenaries of PMC Wagner took the center of Bakhmut and it should come as no surprise to anyone reading this blog — STOCKS DID NOT LIKE IT. Whether you realize it now or later, you should know the fate of Pax Americana, for whatever reason, now lies in Kiev.

The Battle for Bakhmut is over. Mop up operations underway pic.twitter.com/fEzolthieN

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 7, 2023

I closed +19bps for the session, now HEAVILY short at 50% of assets because why the fuck not?

The sell off in the banks have intensified and I don’t give a fuck what the news is or might be — only that they’re cratering. The XLF is red candling like a motherfucker today, off by 2.5%. You’d be wise to hedge or sell short into this debacle, as we do not know what this move might portend.

Banks are off by 3% and the Euro is down 1.1% vs the dollar.

Bottom line: we are now bearish as fuck.

I had 30% hedges at the open and I felt really good about it so I closed them out for profit and then I immediately felt a sense of remorse, due to the market looking like shit. As a consolation, I took down a 10% hedge in SOXS and will hold it for a few hours.

I’m up 45bps, only due to those hedges and now have the task of not fucking it up, which means to trade defensively. It is the days like today that help me outperform, up when everyone is down and in the doldrums.

Rates are flat and there really isn’t much to be fearful over in today’s tape. Even SAAS stocks are strong. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we ramped higher from here.

Nevertheless, the market is sketchy as fuck and I need to treat it accordingly.

UPDATE: I closed out the SOXS hedge for a 3% loss.

UPDATE: hedges are back on fuckers

Even though I am boolish, I closed 30% short. I did this because I cannot trust opens anymore — as many of them debut sharply lower. There is a war coming, after all, and many of you will perish in the fires of retribution. You will be happy to die for it, in order to stop the next Hitler — as we are told. In order to stop a theoretical Hitler, we must become Hitler and impose dominion over ancestral enemies — all for fame and fortune.

The plight of humanity is waged through war and all great evolutions crafted by it. America has been on the winning side for several hundreds years — and so the legacy of the ruling elite forge ahead with your blood and souls in tow to extract from others what they cannot do themselves.

I ended the session -78bps, practically a day off for me as I was afflicted and still am afflicted by god forsaken allergies.

Perhaps it’s my allergies afflicting me deeply, but today’s tape looks bullish to me. I know — we are BARRELING the fuck down and everyone is so sad natty is finished. But cheap energy is good and besides — who the fuck cares? As long as rates aren’t going up — all is well.

We have a new scheme via arming Ukraine and printing billions in an effort to start World War. After all, world war is bullish. Aside from the deaths, think about the rebuilding efforts. We can and will build NEW CITIES.

What is the quickest way to demolish a city?

World War.

You just need to find a safe spot, maybe in the middle of a forest somewhere, for the next 5 years.

I am 100% long, no hedges — down 55bps and hoping for a little late day rally.

NOTE: I may or may not change my mind dramatically depending on the tape, so you know.

I gardened this weekend, as the weather in NC was very beautiful and my mood very good. I am now suffering from my outside excursions via allergies, since I’m allergic to the earth. Additionally, my dishwasher broke. While these setbacks might vex-ate others, I realize this is nothing more than a minor sacrifice in order to extract grandiose stock market wins.

Almost always a dishwasher breaking at House Fly, which they do quite often, leads to personal success. Now all I have to do is sit back and make all of the right decisions.

Natty is hammered to death, -12%. And the overall condition of the market looks good. A much warmer than expected winter, coupled with abundant supplies of gas, has led to an absolute rout for gas longs.

Overall the market should go higher, providing rates stay down.

I sold out of most of my stocks due to the weekly reallocation that I conduct. I’ll be back into the market after 12:30pm.

My latest trading stratagem in a nut shell.

Since December I implemented a new trading strategy to force myself into a 100% long position at all times — mostly because I was and still am too bearish. It was designed to protect myself against myself. I can’t help but to feel certain ways — but I can certainly do something about it and behave in a logical way to further my position.

The 100% long picks are all picked using my growth quant method, which employs a sundry of fundamental factors — all but assuring that picks are solid companies but also growing revenues and all have very good free cash flow. The last thing I wanted was a portfolio filled with AFRMs. I was emboldened by this method after seeing the quant produce a 7% return last year — which was terrific all things considered.

After my longs are picked for the week (every Monday), my only job is to either hedge to prevent losses or boost returns via day and/or swing trading using margin. And that’s it.

The results:

Much of the +29.5% YTD returns are due to my additional trading. My monthly quant account is +6.7% YTD, which is more in line with markets. My outperformance is due to the fact that on bad days I am often heavily hedged and my timing has been good. Another reason is when markets are very good — I employ the volume tools inside Stocklabs to find me runners and have been very fortunate to find them using very specific methods.

All of the screens are inside the platform — but the basic tenets I use are as follows.

Find stocks within 2% of session highs. Mean reversion is fine — but I’d rather squeeze 2% out of a runner at session highs than catch a falling knife in the hopes the current trend will reverse.

Find stocks with volume breakouts. My volume delta tools analyzes the volume of all stocks pro-rated on a minute scale using a 30day average. If there is a volume spike in the making, I will know about it right away. The big runners are always paired with volume breakouts.

Do not concern yourself with fundamentals when trading intraday or overnight.

Gravitate towards liquid stocks — volume of at least 500,000 shares per day. If it’s late in the session and I want a pop, I look for stocks with 2m+.

If you cannot find any ideas — you might want to buy an inverse ETF to hedge. Often times when ideas are scarce — it is because the market is topping out. When in doubt, sell short.

Keep track of intraday QQQ chart using a 5m scale all day every day and look for breakups and downs. Do not sell short into massive down candles and do not go long into massive melt ups. Often times after big candles, you will see a little mean reversion.

Keep losses and gains tight at 1-2%, sometimes even smaller. The point of using margin is not to be greedy — but to boost returns on existing positions.

There are times when I will ignore a 1-2% loss in a hedge, providing I already have nice gains for the session and intend to average down.

Position sizes start at 5%. Double sized position is 10% etc. I rarely buy stocks at more than 5% — but will double or triple it for a day trading — but on rare occasions. Often times when needing to average down, I will reduce my adds to 2.5% positions in an attempt to stagger my buys as it trades lower in the hopes of a major upside candle to get me out. When a bad trade all of a sudden turns close to break even — I sell and count my blessings. I am not interested in making money in it only to get out alive.

Position sizing and stopping out of losses are the most important things when trading. Anyone can pick good stocks — but many fall prey to greed and ego — which causes them to blow up.

One final note: If long 100% growth stocks, I’ve found the only way to truly hedge into a net short position is to have 40% of assets margined into an inverse ETF. There are many inverses to choose from. I would suggest gravitating towards the most liquid and correlated to the market — which happens to be SQQQ, SOXS or TZA. The best one, in my opinion, is SQQQ. If you want to target a class of stocks specifically, you can buy FNGD, DRV, FAZ, LABD — but just know there will be times when they do not correlate well with markets and you might end up with a hedge that not only didn’t hedge but added to your losses.

You need to understand there are levels to this game we play. At the top are complete assholes who are bereft of any skill. Basically they’re all demons and devils who are corrupt enough to trick others into giving them money. They then employ others to leverage that money into larger sums and they fuck off for the rest of their lives rich as fuck.

Then there are people like me, plebs with innate skills who are used by the devils on top to get rich as fuck and fuck off until death. I’ll never attain grandiose wealth, just enough to get by and afford the many luxuries that I deserve, by natural law.

I’ve concluded long ago that I do not need grandiose sums of wealth. It’ll probably turn me into a demon, or worse a tranny. This way, I get to chat with proles all day long and yell at them when they do stupid things and they thank me for the abuse I dole out. I can only get away with these sort of tactics while successful, in a state of peak performance — such a state that literally nothing can stop me.

I AM SKILLED LABOR in these markets, an artisan of sorts — a man who understands his weaknesses and strengths and knows how to swim when the waters are calm — but most importantly when rough.

I tell you these things, even though it means less than nothing to you, because I can and I usually do the things I can and avoid the things I cannot.

The ISM numbers came in hot. CRM, VEEV, OKTA all smashed on earnings. It seems to me SAAS stocks are back in play and not just on a dead cat bounce basis, but fundamentally strong.

Biggest winners in SAAS YTD

Are we past the point of being scared about more Fed hikes because the economy is doing so well? Or are we still scared future Fed hikes will hurt whatever it is we have going now? One cannot deny it, no matter where you look — things are stabilizing to getting slightly better. I don’t see how it’s possible. But then again, they once told us there was a helium shortage and kids couldn’t get balloons at their birthday parties because of it.

After the ISM numbers were released this morning, markets dumped and I hedged my portfolio just in case and now we shot back higher, which makes sense since rates are actually decreasing — but I still have my hedge. It’s sort of ornamental now and just look at it without expecting much. I am, however, on the prowl for some momo plays.