iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,376 Blog Posts

Epic Reversal

It’s rather fitting, isn’t it? Immediately following my end of the world “C You Later” post, the market ripped higher.

Before I go over my day, understand, the trades that I made today are not representative of my macro feelings on the economy. Eventually, we’re screwed. However, it’s the fear of eating a 1,000 point rally that forces me to cover shorts and get long. Everything I bought today is a piece of shit. However, I must go long, in order to ride out this short squeeze. Being up 75% year to date is no accident.

“The Fly” is a stock market God.

Basically, I started selling my inverse etf’s during George Bush’s speech. I knew the market would not go lower, after recovering from a 300 point deficit. I also knew, people like to sell on Bush’s speeches. So, I used that weakness to sell [[REW]] , [[EEV]] , [[DUG]] and cover my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] short.

Unfortunately, I kept my [[FXP]] position and was deballed for doing so. But, in order to take advantage of the squeeze, I hopped into my time machine and went long egregious amounts of [[UYM]] , [[ROM]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] .

The one thing that hurt was covering that HK short, after adding to it intra-day. I ate an intra-day loss of 2 bucks, but made money from my initial cost basis.

Basically, the text book says we rally until Thanksgiving. However, do not expect another 600 point day. Milk the rally as best as you can; but turn on it when it looks best.

At the close, I still have very minor positions in [[DUG]] , [[EEV]] and [[SDS]] . And, I own a decent amount of [[FXP]] . Overall, I am 65% long, 15% short and 20% in cash.

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Fuck This

I had enough. I am booking profits on some inverses and upping some of my longs.

UPDATE: I cleaned out my [[EEV]] , [[REW]] and 2/3rds of my [[DUG]] positions. I kept [[FXP]] , [[SDS]] and my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] shorts.

In addition, I loaded up on [[ROM]] and [[UYM]] . There is a good chance this rally may stick.

UPDATE II: I am not net long. I sold enough of my inverses and bought some 200% upsides to get me flat. However, my largest position, by far, is cash. I haven’t calculated yet, but I’m sure it’s more than 30%.

UPDATE III: I’m throwing dice down, getting net long, buying National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and covering some of my [[HK]] short.

UPDATE IV: I covered my entire [[HK]] short. And, I loaded up on The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] .

Currently, I am 60% long, 20% short and 20% cash.

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C You Later

Get ready for a Citigroup Inc. [[C]] crisis. With the stock knifing lower, sub $10, and credit default swaps through the roof, prepare for talks of a Citibank bankruptcy.

Fuck, right away, I will wire my money out of that shitbox, back into my JPMorgan Chase & Co. [[JPM]] account.

The rally, which was made from marshmallows and goose down feathers, has failed. Now, we’re coming for that transvestites (Art Hogan) bottom call, around 7,800.

Here we come you cockless bastard!

As an aside, I am thinking about covering some of my shorts tomorrow. I can see the market crashing here and knifing lower tomorrow morning, then bounce. Boing!

Until then, I will enjoy the bloodshed, from the luxury of my short positions, much to Tim Knight’s chagrin.

UPDATE: I sold short 5,000 Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] @ $14.50

UPDATE:
I bought 10,000 [[UYM]] @ $14.89. And, I am selling my [[REW]] position, north of $133.

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I Have Many Enemies

Most of these men have deformed faces and reside from the darkest, sewage infested, corners of the Earth. They wear shirts made from burlap and pants made from velcro. They drink tea, made from wild gypson plants and eat the flesh of domesticated hamsters.

I fight these people every day. “The Fly” is a beacon of truth in a world filled with unsavory liars, who would slit the throats of elderly people in wheeled chairs, in order to take their food stamps or take the rubber off of their wheeled chairs.

I have fought many battles and seen many things; but none as hideous and monstrous as the cretins who circle the wagons of truth on the internet.

These men are heathens of the lowest order, unable to discern a bar of soap from a bowl of strawberry jelly.

So, when you are over there, in the discomfort of your bullshit pleather chair from Staples, just know, “The Fly” is in the trenches, having a good ol’ time tossing nuclear bomb grenades back and forth with gargoyles.

Top Pick: short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]]

UPDATE:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QszCXHDsZNM 450 300]

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Trust Nothing

Sometime soon, we will get a nice rally in the market. However, I will not bet big on it. If anything, I’ll trade small and try to scalp a little. Basically, oil is leading the market by the nose. I do not trust oil. I think it’s in freefall mode and whoever is trying to bottom fish will get his/her respective faces ripped off.

Right out the gates, I see Chinese stocks are up, which is punishing my [[FXP]] . Normally, I’d buy the dip right away. But, being 80% short, my position is to cover my shorts on dips, not add to them on spikes. With the 10% cash I have left, I will use it for an emergency situation, such as: “OMG, FXP is down $20, what will I do”?

The market is made from marshmallows and goose down feathers. The bulls are weak bitches, hung over from doing diluted lines of blow the night before.

As you know, “The Fly” has some pretty sizable positions in [[REW]] , [[EEV]] , [[FXP]] , [[SDS]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] . I’ll have you know, in addition to you already knowing, I intend to sell my inverses and cover my HK short at more advantageous prices that what my screen is registering now—as a point in fact, unbeknownst to many of you.

So, with that in mind, I will have a looksy over the market, and get a buy list ready, for when the market is ready to bounce. Just know, we are not bouncing today.

No Sir. We shall first taste the infamous “Art Hogan” bottom, prior to any sustainable uptick.

ROFL UPDATE: “Our children will remember Hank Paulson.”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRdZghb0Y8o 450 300]

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The Bankruptcy Boogey Man is Coming

Oil and gas companies will start to hemorrhage cash, then fold. How can tar sand companies, like Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) [[SU]] , stay in business, when it costs more to extract oil than sell it?

Answer: they can’t.

Just like we saw in the late 90’s, when oil was $10 per barrel, oil/gas companies will begin to close up shop, at an alarming rate. No one is drilling for oil. With oil tanking on a daily basis, you have to be out of your fucking mind to lease a rig from National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] or Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] . Plus, how much did it cost RIG and NOV to produce those rigs, when steel was 200% higher?

People, the bottom has dropped out of the oil space. In size, I am long massive amounts of [[DUG]] and short an absurd amount of Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] .

All commodity related names will get the stuffing kicked out of them, but none more than oil. Many, many names will go all the way to zero. You heard it here first.

As you can see, I am constantly adapting to the market. To some of you newer types, my style, at times, may appear to be insane. However, just know, my goal is to debank the market of its coin and keep it for myself.

At the present, I am 80% short, 10% long and 10% cash. My guess, we’re coming for Art Hogan and his asinine bottom call, at 7,700—sometime soon.

Trade accordingly.

NOTE: For the day, I was up more than 10%, putting my year to date gains over 75%, yet another new high.

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The U.S Treasury Will Default

China is shifting policy from plowing reserves into forex to investing internally. At the same time, our government is jacking up spending by the trillions, in order to artificially prop up businesses. Quit frankly, where the fuck is the money coming from?

We are a debtor nation. Without the support of foreign government buying our notes, we will default. The reality of higher taxes will come to fruition, because of necessity, not choice.

Of course it’s easy to get all doom and gloom, as the market knifes lower. However, look at the bigger picture. World growth is slowing to a standstill. Domestic employment is through the floor boards and America, individually and as a whole, are insolvent.

Sure, we can print more notes. The expense will be great and the pain will be ridiculous.

With that in mind, long term, shorting treasuries, via [[TBT]] , is a dunk shot bet. Eventually, rates have to go up, in order to entice investment.

In the meantime, hedge up or face certain financial death.

Barrons has a good read about America’s dicey line of credit.

UPDATE: Last bull surrenders.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlAUdPTr6ZI 450 300]

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