18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,250 Blog Posts

Fly Sell: DECK

I sold short 1,000 [[DECK]] @ $127.52.

UPDATE: I sold short another 1,000 @ $127.67.

Disclaimer: If you sell short DECK because of this post, your only son will wear Uggs. And, you may lose money.

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Position Updates: DECK

Currently, I am short [[DECK]].

The bear case is simple: specialty retailers, eventually, get thrown down the sewer—especially when the consumer is flat broke.

Comparing DECK to [[CROX]], DECK is overvalued by all metrics.

If DECK were to trade at a similar multiple to CROX, the stock price would be reduced to $55 per share.

Food for thought.

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Fly Buy: DUG

I bought 5,000 [[DUG]] @ $39.06.

Disclaimer: If you buy DUG because of this post, you will become addicted to oil. And, you may lose money.

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It’s Not Too Late to Sell

If we are heading into recession, as sure as I’m sitting here, the major indices will be 10-15% lower by mid-year. Take notice of the abysmal start to 2008 as a warning shot.

If your approach to the market is to go long stocks, all the time, regardless of reason—you are in for a rough lesson.

See, unlike you low-end fuckers, “The Fly” learned a thing or two, playing down markets in 2000-2002.

Right now, [[FXP]] is my largest position. Look you, all bubbles come to an end, no matter how sophisticated the puppet masters are. Remember MNCS?

Also, with President Bush talking down oil in the middle east, I want to buy more [[DCR]] and [[DUG]].

Finally, my [[DECK]] and [[LEH]] shorts are working here. And, on the back of that homo [[C]] number, I am bulking up on my [[SKF]] position.

Basically, “The Fly” is a big ol’ bear & shit.

UPDATE: Citigroup- Credit rating cut to AA- by S&P following loss- Bloomberg (28.13 -0.93)

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Retail Sales Non-Existent

We just booked the worst retail sales since the recession of 2002.

Very nice.

Aside from that, [[CHL]] and [[AAPL]] have officially ended discussions, essentially assuring the iPhone will not be sold in China. On that news, [[FXP]] is shooting higher in premarket trade, as CHL swan dives.

And finally, [[C]] only lost 10 billion and change, while cutting the dividend. However, investors are keen to their stupid games and are dumping shares in the premarket.

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China Not Interested in Citi

The good news is, there is still dumb money in the middle east to float their [[C]] boat. The bad news is, China is no longer interested in investing in Western banks.

Hmmm, I wonder why?

While Chinese investment groups have bought big stakes in Wall Street firms like Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley, the scuttled deal suggests there may be limits on how much the Chinese government is willing to invest in the Western banking system. The exact reasons for the breakdown are unclear, and it is possible the two sides may return to the negotiating table.

It’s a disgrace that we have been reduced to third world status, while they’re the rich fuckers.

Reverse roles and shit.

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Enjoy the Bounce—For it Will Be Short Lived

With today’s move up, I lost 0.10%. Gee, I wonder how I will recover from such carnage.

Please help.

Without doubt, the [[IBM]] news was exactly what the bulls needed. The shorts ran for cover, while natural buyers stepped into ag, hard.

Aside from ag, other commodity related names were hot, particularly in basic resources.

With financials about to lose a fresh round of billions, I am contemplating bulking up my [[SKF]] position.

Frankly, the only thing that will change my bearish sentiment is blowout numbers, amongst the retailers.

I don’t care about tech, ag, energy or industrials—just retail. The economic health of Joey Bag-o-Donuts is vital for this markets recovery. Without him, we’re just running on fumes, waiting to get car jacked, then rolled on with our own vehicles.

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This is NOT the Bottom

I sit here amazed at the fucktards who are calling a bottom in the market.

Get this, since 1970, after going lower in January, the market has averaged a loss of 11.5%. If we bottom here, it would represent the smallest decline EVER, in the month of January.

Fuck that.

With gold rocketing higher, financials shitting the bed and the consumer in the septic tank, there is no reason, aside from a short squeeze, to go long stocks.

Use this rally to reduce your long exposure. Otherwise, before you know it, we are diving, hitting the lows again, and you’re over there crying like a little bitch.

Today, I will do nothing. My largest short position, via [[FXP]], is up. Therefore, there is no need for me to add to the position.

If anything, I may sell [[LEH]] short, again.


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