Be Careful of the Trap

The new CNBC rumor that the [[ABK]] deal “hit a snag” is a fucking lie. The cocksucking banks have already committed the capital and will be finalizing the deal, shortly. Over the last two weeks, with the friendly help of Gasparino, the consortium successfully propped up the share prices of both ABK and [[MBI]], through a myriad of leaks.

However, since the news became stale, I believe they disseminated some misinformation today, in order to surprise everyone later. In other words, in order to have a maximum effect on the market, they need the element of surprise.

Now that people are somewhat worried about the deal getting done, once it’s announced, they will be “Santa Claus happy” and run the shares higher. If you look closely, smart money sees through this charade, with ABK‘s shares higher on the day.

Also, big bad Warren Buffett will be on CNBC for 3 hours on Monday.

If you have decent profits on new short positions, it may be wise to pare them down a little, in order to give yourself some capital reserves—should we gap higher on old news.

Being heavily short, I’d like to celebrate today’s decline by kicking some old dude down and idle manhole. But I won’t.

For the most part, my short positions are at or near cost basis, disabling “The Fly” from participating in egregious unwarranted celebratory actions.

On the day, thus far, I’m up a yatch full of coin, as [[SKF]], [[SMN]] and [[SRS]] print higher. Also, it looks as if Mother Lehman is finally about to die.

Long story short, we are in a tight trading range. with a downward bias. Anticipate, over the next two weeks, many 10-k’s to be filed, with all sorts of market jarring disclosures.

Top pick: SRS

Apparently, the [[ABK]] “deal” has hit a “snag,” according to CNBC’s Gasparino.

In other news, with futures down nicely this morning, it appears “The Fly” is well on his way to advancing to round two of the Final Four Mad Stocks Contest.

Did any of you really think I’d lose?

Developing…

This time my win came at the expense of Wall Street Fighter. How do I know this?

Palm Oil powered time machine.

Who’s next?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeLXwFRKK_Y 450 300]

Today, you got a small preview of what a good 10-k, authored by a very cautious auditor, can do for a stock price: [[TMA]].

This is the reason why you read the blog of a “space alien magician,” and not some queer Dinosaur’s —with a fake office (plastic palm tree and all).

The banks will get hit, on disclosures reported in their 10-k’s. Watch and learn.

Aside from that, today was a great day for the bulls. Frankly, I’m shocked the market wasn’t down more, considering the homo data.

As you know, inflation is out of control, yet Bernanke is a fucking loose cannon, lowering rates to rescue banks. In all fairness, some of you bloggers need to quit blaming Bernanke for all of the markets problems. He didn’t make Joey Bag-o-Donuts take out a teaser rate mortgage and leverage up to buy 10 investment homes.

His candor (Bernanke) is refreshing.

Finally, I’m appalled that commodity related stocks will-not-die. For now, I like [[SRS]], [[SKF]], [[UDN]], [[DJP]], [[GLD]] and [[WBD]] for short and intermediate term trades.

NOTE: Fuck [[WM]] and [[LEH]] too.

UPDATE: [[DECK]] is tanking on great earnings. Which reminds me of the famous quote: “The Fly always wins, even when he appears to be losing, badly.”

I bought 1,000 [[SMN]] @ $36.68.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, Gasparino will punch your lights out. And, you may lose money.

Take a look at [[EWM]], which is an ETF representing Malaysia. I’ll have you know, Malaysia is the biggest producer and exporter of palm oil in the world.

The primary driver for palm oil these days is for energy needs. It is used as a biofuel and is deemed a “clean fuel” by all the greenies.

The biggest producer of palm oil is a company named Sime Darby, which represents more than 9% of EWM. See Sime Darby chart here.

Last year, Malaysia’s economy ripped higher at a 6.3% clip. They do not expect to slow much (5.6%), during 2008. The risk, of course, is slowing growth in the U.S., who is Malaysia’s biggest consumer of manufactured goods.

If you’re looking for a direct play on the burgeoning demand of palm oil, EWM is the way to go. Thus far, I have no position and have been waiting for a meaningful pullback to get in.

I’ve been all over the place with my commentary, as of late. Often times, I react very emotionally with words to market sentiment. However, I am much more narrow minded in my position bias.

Here is a current look at my top 10 holdings:

1.  [[REW]]

2. [[SMN]]

3. [[SKF]]

4. [[SRS]]

5. Short [[LEH]]

6. [[RIMM]]

7. [[FXP]]

8. [[AAPL]]

9. [[GD]]

10. Cash

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U88xWuP63Qg 450 300]