iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,374 Blog Posts

LOADING THE FUCK UP

“The Fly” is back to kicking old men down open sewer drains, while guzzling Monster Energy soda from his diamond encrusted chalice.

I want to play the long side here, with great vigor, howsoever with a certain amount of conservatism— if I may be so bold.

I am looking for a 500 point move up from here. My primary hedge will be [[FXP]] . But, already, I have greatly reduced my exposure to it.

There is no reason for the market to run higher; it just will, because I fucking said it will.

If you haven’t figured it out by now, “The Fly” is the market, navigating this bitch of a whore like a bicycle skipping over moon rock.

In the event I am wrong, I have a cash position of 30% to correct my errors.

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Taking Profits

Right now I am hermaphrodite trading, holding both longs and shorts. Into this weakness, I am taking off some inverses and I might cover my Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] short, in order to catch a quick upside move.

Basically, I am saddled with a bunch of long/shorts and need to time this fucker just right, in order to bank ridiculous coin.

Wish me luck!

UPDATE:
I sold out of 50% of my [[DUG]] position, north of $38.25. And, I sold 75% of my [[EEV]] position, north of $95.

UPDATE II: Selling the [[FXP]] that I bought in the 60’s.

UPDATE III: Buying The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] @ $32ish and more National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] @ $24.90

UPDATE IV: I am buying [[UYM]] , sub $14. I am getting net long.

Final Update: I upped my cash position to 30%, while reducing my shorts to  20%. Simple math dictates I am now 50% long. My hedges include: short [[RIG]], short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] , [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] , [[SDS]] and [[REW]] .

My longside bets are on [[NOV]], [[ROM]] , [[UYM]] and [[MOS]].

I do not think we will run hard. However, I do get the sense the market needs to lift, in order to sucker in some more long term investors. All longs are rentals. My cash position will stay idle, waiting for an opportunity to buy back the inverses cheaper.

Rocky part V Update: I covered my [[RIG]] short, sub $70.

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What’s Working

Instead of listening to rank and file tools on CNBC jibber jabber about their bullshit ETF launches, “The Fly” will throw some red meat on the table (raw), for you bull market lovers.

Setting aside my “death to equities” position, there are some stocks that have been outperforming in this tape. Typically, when a stock outperforms in a bad tape, it goes gang busters in a good one.

Via The PPT (coming soon), here are the top 10  ranked stocks (share price above $5), based solely on technicals:

[[CASY]] Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[QCOR]] Puget Energy, Inc. [[PSD]] Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[OPTR]] American Science & Engineering, Inc. [[ASEI]] World Fuel Services Corporation [[INT]] Chattem Inc. [[CHTT]] California Water Service Group [[CWT]] Cephalon, Inc. [[CEPH]] Alaska Air Group, Inc. [[ALK]]

As far as momentum is concerned, here is a list of stocks with the biggest jump in Hybrid Rank (a combination of technicals and fundamentals) score, over the past week:

Goodrich Petroleum Corporation [[GDP]] Puget Energy, Inc. [[PSD]] Atmos Energy Corporation [[ATO]] TOP Ships Inc. [[TOPS]] Repros Therapeutics Inc. [[RPRX]] SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] Old Republic International Corporation [[ORI]] Imperial Sugar Company [[IPSU]] Fuqi International, Inc. [[FUQI]] [[ASCMA]]

In other newz, another Chinese stock, Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , is getting the panda kicked out of it today. China: the knife that keeps on twisting.

NOTE: long [[FXP]] , in size.

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Art Hogan Here We Come

Art Hogan’s infamous bottom call of 7,800 and change shall and will be broken soon, much to the chagrin of Andy Swan. Men in tight green leotards were buying stocks today, with the fervor of small head lice inside a bottle of vinegar. As you know, they were run over by large monster trucks today.

I, on the other hand, roamed my office, while listening to the music of the Gods. And, I ordered the burning of obscene amounts of incense. I ought to be careful, for the love of privacy. Soon enough the fire department will be dispatched to my office—no doubt.

With the market closing near the lows, I find myself making accurate calls, but not fully taking advantage of the slide. I find myself here, in a most egregious fashion, long stocks.

This is concerning, since I espouse the belief of much lower equity prices. To hell in a hand basket, I’ve done lost my mind and marbles.

Thanks to the abject failure of the U.S. Treasury, the market will go lower than any of you goat fuckers imagined. The pain will be so severe and so dreadful, you will wish and pray for a howitzer shell to the face.

With my money, at the close, I tilted my shorts to outweigh my longs. However, I still have lots of cleaning up to do. My guess, sometime tomorrow, I will figure this madness out and begin trading without manners, but with a certain amount of certitude.

Top pick: [[EEV]]

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Stay Hedged

Don’t be 100% long or short, if you enjoy the luxuries of money. The market is directionless, with hilarious weakness in the banks and boot stomping gains in select commodities.

If you’re long [[FXP]] , you may want to own [[ROM]] too. Or, if you are long [[UYM]] , you may want to own [[EEV]] .

One thing is certain: uncertainty.

I don’t think anyone would be surprised if the market was up 300 or down 300 today. My approach, as always, is to win. If that means getting long National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , with a 30% hedge being short Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] —so be it.

Right now, intra-day, I’m down close to 2%, thanks in large part of the homos who trade Chinese stocks, via [[FXP]] . However, I am optimistic about my burgeoning National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] position breaking $30. And, at the same time, I like the comfort of being short the big oil producers, via [[DUG]] .

Basically, I am not sure where the market is going today or tomorrow. But, I do know, with the courage and tenacity of a hungry lion trapped inside a room full of techno dancers, we will touch down on 7,500 before 2008 is complete.

On a side note, CNBC is hitting a new 52 week low today, with their bullshit Russian propaganda. They actually sent Erin Burnett to Moscow? For what?

Their bullshit market is down 75% this year and opens 2 days a week for trading. Why the fuck is CNBC wasting the corporate dollars of General Electric Company [[GE]] , trying to paint that fucking Russian pig gold?

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The Crash Has Been Postponed

Good thing I gave my longs “an hour or two.”

The market is on the verge of recovering from a pretty big intra-day hole. However, don’t get all happy and shit. There are many, many stocks down big today, unable to get off the mat.

At a minimum, I will avoid torturing myself through buying more [[FXP]] . And, I will look to sell off some longs into strength. I have to take a position, one way or another.

Either I bet on a fucking meltdown or some sort of disingenuous Thanksgiving rally. At the present, I am in no mood to bet on anything. So, for now, I’ll just hang out, roaming around my office, all neutral and shit—white robed and fully sandaled.

Top long pick: National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]]
Top short pick
: [[EEV]]

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Going Down in Style

In case you were busy and didn’t notice, my Titans are 10-0. For you home gamers trying to decode what that means, it means “The Fly” won again, even when it seemed like a total non-Fly related victory, if there is such a thing.

As we stair step down to 7,500, iBC readers will be doing it in style, listening to Frank Sinatra. The way I figure, we might as well celebrate the death of equities with class, enough of the rap shit.

With regards to the markets:

We’re going to bust through 8,000 soon. When we do, the fucking barnyard doors will swing open, letting loose all sort of animals, goats, cows and rabbits included. With my money, I will start taking losses on some of my longs and muscle up to the short side. However, before I do that, I want to give the market another hour or two to redeem itself.

Upon failing, I will short this fucker as if my head was on fire. I know that last sentence was completely out of place and made no sense; but I wanted to write it, so fuck off.

Oh, also, I shorted that bastard Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] again. This time I will kill the bitch— no more 555 point rallies to rescue the whore.

Into weakness, I will hold and buy more inverses, including [[FXP]] , [[EEV]] , [[DUG]] and a touch of [[SDS]] and [[REW]] . My longs include [[UYM]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , [[ROM]] , [[M]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , amongst others. Basically, I have a lot of cleaning up to do, in order to pick a side.

Enough of this market neutral shit.

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This Depression Will Be Cooler

I was out with the family yesterday; basically following Mrs. Fly around—paying for stuff that she deemed “necessary.” For the kids, we went to a variety of stores, picking up little things along the way. The one thing that stood out, a common denominator if you will, everything was on sale. The most startling thing I have ever experience occurred at “The Gap,” where a desperate sales person gave us access to his employee discount card (30% off), just so he could meet his quota. In other words, he was like “yo, buy a lot of stuff and I’ll hook you up.” I was like “you’re on, fuckface.”

Then, we moseyed on over to the sneaker stores, all 5 of them. Much to my chagrin, none of the stores carried 1/2 sizes. My youngest son is a size 10 1/2 sneaker. I guess during big ass depressions, store managers keep their inventories low by only stocking up on full sizes.

Finally, Mrs. Fly jogged on to the Coach store, where she bought “the latest bag.” Long story short, those fucking sales people were the most egregious hard sellers I’ve ever encountered at the shopping mall—almost as bad as stock brokers. They were trying to close me on some bullshit $100 wallet for about 15 minutes. They even took turns trying to “seal the deal.” Morons. “The Fly” cannot be closed; scientifically, it is impossible.

Quick note: I even found parking near the mall, which was a 30 minute endeavor, this time— last year.

Look you, the country is fucked. Its “fuckedness” stems from the budget shortfalls municipalities will face, burdened by declining tax revenues and increasing jobless rates. Many, many cities and states, in this ass backwards union, have HUGE infrastructure projects underway. Needless to say, they will not be able to fund them anymore.

The money is gone. An egregious age of deflation is upon us. Poof, just like that.

I must admit, I am shocked by the lack of leadership in this country. Words cannot express how idiotic Paulson and Co. look right now, reversing their stance on the TARP program. Basically, they are saying “fuck you, you’re dead,” to all of the weak banks. Because of this, there will be a huge wave of bank closings— and soon.

Actually, their latest position is a logical one, which is: why give dead banks money, if they are dead? However, on Wall Street, we don’t like it when policy changes so dramatically. It makes everyone nervous. We have a bunch of headless horsemen leading us into a war.

The markets are in danger of trading down significantly, due to uncertainty. Everyone I know, who manages big money, is nervous.

I keep switching my market bias, because things keep changing. One week it appears the Government has a handle on things; the next they are chopping off each others cocks. I’m sorry, but I can’t invest on the long side, while my leaders are running around without their cocks.

Naturally, the fuckery is not isolated in America. Worldwide, growth is slowing to a standstill. Don’t be a fucking hero, amidst the biggest banking freeze up, since the wonderful times of the last Great Depression.

Without a doubt, we are heading into a depression or something like it, where employment and inventories run dry. However, this time, it will be much cooler to watch, on my brand new LCD, as opposed to where Grandpa Fly found news: on his bullshit AM radio, made from “Marconi”— “a fine Italian”—no doubt.

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