18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,562 Blog Posts

Don’t Think, Just Buy

When markets get stupid like this, I quit thinking. It’s party time and everyone fucktard with an asshat is invited.

Luckily, I was heavily long energy stocks, going into today’s grindhouse. My losses were to the tune of 1.2%, thanks to the amazing decline in both [[FXP]] and [[SRS]]. Also, my short positions in [[POT]] and [[COWN]] added to my losses.

On the long side, I had “big dicked” gains in [[RIG]], [[PCZ]], [[FTK]], [[CTSH]], [[AAPL]], [[NOV]] and [[QTWW]].

The fascinating thing about today’s tape was that it was bullet proof to a $5+ upside move in crude and credit downgrades of [[ABK]] and [[MBI]]. In short, the bears ran for cover, ahead of tomorrow’s economic data. Which is funny, because the data is likely to be bad.

At any rate, almost every sector spiked, especially retail, energy and ag. Just yesterday, I was bitching about being too hedged and expressed my dismay with minor daily changes in my portfolios. Boy am I glad to be hedged today, indeed.

My game plan is fairly simple, yet succinct:

Wait for a “clown bounce” in the financials, then short them.

Avoid shorting commodity related names, despite their “dot commish” behavior.

Go long energy related names, with inpunity, because, as Guy Adami would say: “they’re cheap on a valuation basis.”

Buy more FXP, under $65.

Buy more SRS, under 80.

Sell some AAPL, above $200.

With the dollar strengthening, add to my Indian IT service plays, which include: CTSH, [[INFY]], [[SAY]], [[WIT]] and [[WNS]].

Never fuck with ethanol stocks again.

Off to coach a baseball game.

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Fly Buy: FTK

I bought 5,000 [[FTK]] @ $18.

Disclaimer: If you buy FTK because of this post, the next time you’re at Home Depot, a large piece of lumber will fall on your neck. And, you may lose money.

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Holy Shit

Are my eyes deceiving me? Oil is up more than 5 bucks now. On this move, I suspect the market will weaken. If it doesn’t today, it will tomorrow. Nonetheless, energy related stocks should “retard up,” while everything else burns to a crispy cinder.

Right now, [[FTK]], [[RIG]], [[ARD]], [[PCZ]] and [[UPL]] are screaming buys, amongst many others in the space.

For a dice roll, take a look at [[PZE]], [[LEI]], [[END]], [[XCO]], [[WRES]] and [[TXCO]].

This market is crazier than a hungry lion on the moon.

NOTE: If you want to forgo all the noise and just get long crude, take a look at [[DYY]], another 200% upside product.

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Food and Beverage Stocks Eating the Bears

Food and beverage stocks rip higher, when prosperity springs. There have been studies done, none available to me at the present, that draw a correlation between beverage consumption and wealth creation. Basically, people drink more soda pop when they have money to burn. When poor, they’re more likely to drink water out of a dirty lake.

Today, many of the food and beverage stocks are “homo hammering” the bears, into small pancakes.

On the top of my list is [[HANS]]. I know the stock has been a serial underperformer. However, keep in mind, their problems have nothing to do with end user demand. It’s the rise in their input costs that is killing their margins.

Here is a short list of food and beverage stocks worth monitoring:

[[DPZ]], [[JMBA]], HANS, [[CALM]], [[GAP]], [[WBD]], [[MSSR]], [[DPS]], [[JSDA]], [[CMG]], [[PEET]], [[BAGL]], [[TXRH]], [[ABV]], [[NAFC]] and [[NATH]].

In short, we’re fucking rich again. Go get drink and eat yourself into a stupor—you fat slobs.

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Position Update: FTK

If you’re interested in a potential short squeeze, take a gander at [[FTK]] again. With 4 million shares sold short or 15% of the float, and crude/natty going up, this sucker has a potential to print $20+ again.

The downside surprise has been eliminated, at least in the near term, due to the company’s recent guidance. And, if you’re a glass half full type of guy, one can make the argument that the current eps estimates represent a very low bar for the company.

In short, trading under 15x, FTK can easily rip to the low 20’s and start a short squeeze, especially since the stock trades on thin volume.

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Fly Buys: PZE, RIG, FXP

I bought 2,000 [[PZE]] @ $13.07, 3,000 [[RIG]] @ $145.20 and 1,000 [[FXP]] @ $69.40.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, your only daughter will marry Dennis Kneale. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Sells: VSE, AVR

I sold out of these positions. They were experiments in stupidity gone awry.

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Off to the Races

We’re on fire again. Nothing like some good ol’ fashioned government data to pick the market up.

Across the board, stocks are ripping. My inverse etf’s are being shredded. However, to offset them, all of my long are on steroids to the upside. Right here, I like [[CTSH]], [[AAPL]], [[RIG]], [[PCZ]], [[QTWW]], [[BAP]] and [[FMCN]].

As of now, my only short position in the banking sector is [[FED]]. I plan to use this bounce in the indices to expand my bearish bets.

However, much to my chagrin, [[FXP]] is getting its face ripped off, thanks to sharp gains in [[CHL]]. I’ll look to buy more FXP, under $65, if possible.

Finally, the commodity trade is back in a furious way. The interesting this is, they are all shooting higher, despite dollar strength. Apparently, the “global growth” story is more important than the stupid dollar.

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