18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,563 Blog Posts

Reporters Circle Jerking Around Levees

Sadly, there was no catastrophic damage appropriated to the stupid rigs in the gulf. Now, it’s no longer fun. I do not want to see the levees break, effectively wiping out Geraldo Rivera.

That would make for “good television,” but entirely “unfun.”

In other news, my weather man is telling me to “watch out for Ike.” He’s coming hard off of Africa and is looking to slap a few oil rigs around.

As for the sell off in crude: entirely overdone.

On the other hand, if oil is to get its brains blown out, due to a “Global Recession,” well then, so will the industrials and the banks.

You cannot have it both ways.

More on this later.

UPDATE: There was some minor damage done to oil/gas infrastructure. I’ll be out for most of the day. Check out the Oil Drum blog for excellent commentary, pertaining to the energy markets.

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Refiners Should Run—And So Should You

I offer mixed messages on a drunken Sunday night.

With Gustav strengthening and barreling down on coastal morons, with several storms behind it, people who are gay/short oil are set to have their heads sawed off—taliban style—when trade opens on Tuesday.

I have a number of engineering, lumber and water filtration stocks worth perusing. However, let’s keep those on the back burner, until after the damage is assessed. One thing to note, Louisiana is the largest port for rubber and steel in the country. I suspect the price of rubber, steel and copper will take off. Keep an eye on coffee too.

Pick your favorite copper and steel stocks, while shorting General Motors Corporation [[GM]] and Ford Motor Company [[F]] .

At the minimum, the refiners are all screaming buys here, as the price of gasoline spikes higher—due to outages. Think crack spread.

At the present, I am long Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] . It makes sense to quietly buy the ones with the largest short positions.

Courtesy of iBC’s PPT service (it can do everything), here is a list of all U.S. refiners, sorted by percentage of shares sold short. Yes, “The Fly” went long the refiner with the biggest short position, as he intends on winning again.

WNR Western Refining Inc (WNR) 29.9
TSO Tesoro Corp (TSO) 19.8
SUN Sunoco Inc (SUN) 16.1
SUF Sulphco Inc (SUF) 12.8
FTO Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) 11
HOC Holly Corp (HOC) 8.7
PETD Petroleum Development Corp (PETD) 8.1
XTXI Crosstex Energy Inc (XTXI) 7.3
ALJ Alon USA Energy Inc (ALJ) 7
VLO Valero Energy Corp (VLO) 2.6
DK Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) 2.6
CVI CVR Energy Inc (CVI) 2.6
MUR Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) 2.4
EPE Enterprise GP Holdings LP (EPE) 2.3
CLMT Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) 1.8
SYNM Syntroleum Corp (SYNM) 1.5
HES Hess Corp (HES) 1.5
MRO Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) 1.2

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Go Do Some Research

Courtesy of iBankCoin’s PPT Service, which will launch on the 79th anniversary of Black Monday (October 28th), I offer you a list of all of the publicly traded companies headquartered in Louisiana.

NOTE:The PPT” can do everything.

Albemarle Corporation [[ALB]] , Amedisys, Inc. [[AMED]] , Cleco Corporation [[CNL]] , CenturyTel, Inc. [[CTL]] , Energy Partners, Ltd. [[EPL]] , Entergy Corporation [[ETR]] , Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. [[GIFi]] , Global Industries, Ltd. [[GLBL]] , H&E Equipment Services, Inc. H&E Equipment Services, Inc. H&E Equipment Services, Inc. [[HEES]] , Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. [[HOS]] , IBERIABANK Corporation [[IBKC]] , Lamar Advertising Company [[LAMR]] , LHC Group, Inc. [[LHCG]] , McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]] , [[MSL]] , [[PHII]] , Pool Corporation [[POOL]] , PetroQuest Energy, Inc. [[PQ]] , The Shaw Group Inc. [[SGR]] , Stone Energy Corporation [[SGY]] , Superior Energy Services, Inc. [[SPN]] , Stewart Enterprises, Inc. [[STEI]] , Tidewater Inc. [[TDW]] , Whitney Holding Corp. [[WTNY]] .

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Gustav is a “Cat 5 Killer”—Run for Cover

Our local weather man is on fire. He’s like a tornado wrapped inside an inferno, wrapped inside a super cyclone—heading for the internet.

Serious Note: Gustav is a beast. If you live near the “Red Neck Riviera,” you should evacuate now.

UPDATE: “The Fly” has a bunch of fantastic hurricane plays (he kept his notes from Katrina). However, if I gave them to you, that would be like giving them away. Sorry folks, they’re for closers only.

More on this later.

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My Weekend Will Be Better Than Yours

I just wanted to say that to you, my readers, in parting.

I’ll have you know, I just sold out of my gold positions—including Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] and [[DGP]] . They’re rather pointless, aren’t they?

In their place is nothing.

“The Fly” is buying nothing, with both hands, in size—going into BBQ weekend.

This is the last hoorah for the summer of 2008. All in all, it was rather benign. I never take long vacations, so my highlights are usually somewhat subdued. Nonetheless, I enjoyed myself a great deal and look forward to banking some major coin—during the fall and winter months.

My thoughts about stocks and asset allocations are constantly changing. I never stick to one mantra or investment style. Instead, I think dynamically, always on the prowl for a new angle.

If there is one thing I can drill into your stupid skulls is to think dynamically—which includes questioning your own philosophies, not just others.

All in all, the stock market is a bastard of a place to make a living. I remember getting into the business, more than a decade ago, and all of my friends and colleagues were so “psyched.”

We were all going to be rich, thanks to the stock market, Gordon Gekko and our Godly skills.

Fast forward 10 years, 90% of my colleagues have quit the business, either because of the emotional drain or good old fashioned failure.

If you’re in the business and feel it’s not for you: quit being such a piker and get to work.

You only think that way because you want success served to you on a platter, during a specific time of the day—preferably when you’re not busy. Nothing in life is easy to attain, minus stupidity and death.

If you want to make lots of money, put the work in and quit thinking about happy hour or weekend trips.

Off to the butcher.

Top picks: Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , [[DIG]] , [[SKF]]

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Fly Buy: SKF

I bought 1,000 [[SKF]] @ $116.

UPDATE: I bought another 2,000 @ $115.78

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, the banking system will collapse. And, you may lose money.

UPDATE: I will not be adding to SKF or starting any bank shorts until next week. In addition, I will not buy any SKF over $110. I will add to this position sub $110, down to $90.

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Time to Price in Obama

“The Fly” hates politics, so don’t start with your low-end babble. However, for the sake of knowledge, I did a little research on McCain’s maverick pick: Palin.

At first, I hated it. Then, I loved it. Now, I hate it again.

First of all, recently, she had a baby—who was born with down syndrome. Now, I applaud her for having the baby and not taking “the easy way out.” However, she went back to work—only 3 days after giving birth. What kind of huckery is that?

I mean, as a parent, I’d be appalled at my wife if she did that.

Also, it’s worth noting, her husband works for BP. As you know, “The Fly” has nothing but love for the oil companies. But, this will not go over well with people who hate oil men.

Pricing in an Obama win will be very arduous. You have to discount the market by at least 10%, considering his stance against free trade and capital gains.

On the plus side, it’s time to take a serious look at alternative energy stocks. I foresee the Obama administration funding alternatives, like a drunken Ben Bernanke at a Bear Stearns X-mas party (I know that made zero sense).

Separately, the market is boring me to death. Not even a “Deacon of Death” can get the oils going.

Contrary to what the market is saying, I still like the oils here.

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Calm Down; The Market Sucks

Late in 2007, “The Fly” predicted we’d be down 15% in 2008. I stand by that prediction, and more (if that makes any sense). We are likely to “enjoy” the bigger sized losses in 2009, as industries from planes to autos say “see ya later, I’m gonna go ahead and file for bankruptcy.”

I told you “The Fly” was on the verge of making his second best market call of 2008, via timing the banks with NASA-like precision. Right now, I have a 15% cash position and bountiful energy plays. My only short positions include a very small piece of [[SKF]] , Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] .

Look you, I’ve been in this business for awhile now; and I pay attention. Some people just go through the motions and enjoy their money. I, on the other hand, would stay in the office, studying the market till 11pm, while my colleagues were out getting drunk and doing lines of blow off bar stools.

The market cannot be trusted during August-October. If you believe the market has “bottomed,” because August was fairly decent, you are delirious.

Remember, mutual and hedge funds have been boot stomped this year. That will not be resolved smoothly, when the quarter ends and people want their money back. And, don’t forget, companies will begin to warn of earnings shortfalls, sometime very soon.

Finally, the banks are still broke. They need to raise more capital. Anticipate a flurry of dilutive secondaries to hit the tape, within the next 4 weeks.

With my money, I will keep my cash position at 15%, maybe nibble on some [[DIG]] and [[IEO]] , should it dip some more, and prepare to buy some serious rib eyes for a BBQ “The Fly” is hosting this weekend.

NOTE: None of you are invited. So sorry.

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